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HR3 Atlantic’s Misinformation Misfire. Amazon Bids on TikTok. Tariffs and the Economic Pulse. 4-2-25 by John Rush
SPEAKER 11 :
This is Rush to Reason.
SPEAKER 19 :
You are going to shut your damn yapper and listen for a change because I got you pegged, sweetheart. You want to take the easy way out because you’re scared. And you’re scared because if you try and fail, there’s only you to blame. Let me break this down for you. Life is scary. Get used to it. There are no magical fixes. With your host, John Rush.
SPEAKER 05 :
My advice to you is to do what your parents did. Get a job, sir.
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You haven’t made everybody equal. You’ve made them the same, and there’s a big difference.
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Let me tell you why you’re here. You’re here because you know something. What you know you can’t explain, but you feel it. You’ve felt it your entire life, that there’s something wrong with the world. You don’t know what it is, but it’s there. It is this feeling that has brought you to me.
SPEAKER 14 :
Are you crazy? Am I? Or am I so sane that you just blew your mind?
SPEAKER 04 :
It’s Rush to Reason with your host, John Rush. Presented by Cub Creek Heating and Air Conditioning.
SPEAKER 07 :
All right. Hour number three, Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. Thanks for joining us. Thanks for all the text messages, by the way. And I apologize. I didn’t get a chance to read those through the top of the hour. Charlie and I were talking about different things that sometimes we do from time to time. And at any rate, I will answer some of these as I’m – actually, that’s when we actually could type and talk at the same time. So occasionally I’m able to do that. I don’t do that very often. But sometimes I actually can talk and type at the same time. All right. This was news I didn’t talk much about. I don’t know why. I guess because when I heard it at first, I was just sort of like, eh, I’m not sure that’s all true. And that was the Atlantics story that came out, I think it was Monday. that talked about the dad, the father, that had inadvertently been deported and is now along the other MS-13 gang members and so on. And it was a big mistake. He shouldn’t have been deported. He was just a regular old dad, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And that was the story that came out Monday. Charlie, you probably saw the headlines and read some of that as well. And I did, too. And I didn’t mention it on air. And frankly, I’m glad that I didn’t. Because guess what? It’s not true. None of it’s true. The Atlantic basically, well, did they fake the story or did they just screw up? Who knows? Bottom line is, that’s not the whole story. That particular individual, it wasn’t a human tragedy that he somehow got deported on accident. No, the reality is that particular person was, in fact, a member of… MS-13. And I can’t read the entire article in front of me because this is one of the paywall things, and that’s what I hate about certain sites, and no, I won’t do the paywall. But bottom line, yes, in fact, he had been in line to be deported in the past. He had gotten some passes under the past… He should have been deported. There was no mistake made. This wasn’t some just regular house dad with kids in school and this, that, and the other like they made it sound on Monday. No, in fact, this was somebody that should have been deported from the get-go. He was, in fact, a gang member, and he shouldn’t be here. Once again, the left, doing what the left does best, fabricating stories to fit their narrative, And I mean, I already know this answer. Why does the left, you know, why are they so bent on keeping criminals in our country? That’s a question I have for some of you that are on the left. Why are you so bent in keeping criminals here? I thought you were for law and order and all of those things, but it’s evident that you’re quite the opposite. You aren’t for law and order. You would like to see chaos. You are basically bent on chaos rather than law and order, proving my point as to what happened on Monday. And by the way, if you don’t believe me on that, that is all over the news today that that Atlantic story was basically made up. I first noticed it in Blaze, but then I went and thought, OK, well, that’s Blaze. Let me look a little bit further to make sure that that’s not just something the Blaze is throwing out there. But no, he deserved to go to the Salvadorian prison. He’s been involved in MS-13. There’s very much a history there of all of that. And again, he has been involved in things in the past, and he actually had a deportation proceeding back in 2019. He was deemed to be a danger to the public and a flight risk then. So, yeah, this is not a nice guy. Now, maybe he was to his own family and all of that, but to the public, no, not a nice guy, not somebody that we need here. And furthermore, if you’re not here legally… And what the Trump administration is currently doing right now is taking those that are here illegally and are a known threat to the public, and they’re the first ones that are getting deported. Now, the other thing that they are doing, and rightfully so, because I don’t have any issues here, there are students here who have overstayed their visas on certain college campuses, I guess because they feel like they can. And, yes, they’re going through the process of being deported as well. And when I hear these things, at first people would say, well, isn’t that kind of mean? Well, let me send you to another country, any country, and let’s see what happens when you overstay your visa. Because I can tell you, as somebody that’s traveled around the world, I’ve been to a lot of different places, most of the Caribbean. I’ve been to Africa. I’ve been to parts of Europe. I’ve been to Mexico, of course. I’ve been enough places to know that I can tell you that they ask you specifically how long are you going to be here. In some cases, you have to, Africa, for example, you have to apply for a visa in advance, and there’s a period that you’re allowed to be there. And I can guarantee you that if you don’t leave as you’re supposed to, they will come find you. And or when you get to leaving and you didn’t leave on time, you’re going to have a problem. So other countries are very serious about overstaying visas. We haven’t been here. We’ve allowed things to just sort of, you know, slip through the cracks, if you would, and it’s become a habit. And, well… Guess what? Those cracks are being filled in. They’re no longer being allowed to slip through. And if you’re here on a student visa and it’s starting to expire and you don’t do what you need to do to get it renewed, that’s on you. That’s not on me as a citizen. That’s on you. That’s not on DHS. That’s on you. You need to be the one responsible for making sure that you get things updated. And if not, then go home. Go home and figure it out. And again, I could go south of the border. I could go to Mexico and overstay my visa, and I’d have the same problem. So it’s always confusing to me that you hear all of this nonsense from the left, and yet if any of those individuals that don’t like what’s going on right now in regards to deportation went to another country and overstayed, or entered illegally, by the way, they’d have a problem. But yet, because we’re the United States of America… We should just be throwing our arms open, open wide, let anybody that wants to come, come. I have had, how should I say this, some Facebook folk who I’ve known for years, and these are what I at one time considered to be solid Christian individuals, people that I’ve known for a long time, that I have been watching and have actually now defriended. as I watch them comment on things happening in our immigration, and I just think to myself, you’re really not this stupid, are you? You’re really not this stupid. But they are. And you know what? In my case, it’s not even worth arguing or talking to them about this because you’re not going to get anywhere when it’s all said and done. So I just sort of let it roll off the back and I just defriend them and I move on. Dave and Thornton, hang tight. Let’s take a quick break. We’ll come back, give you plenty of time that way because we’re up against a break. Flesh Law is next. Speaking of legal end of things, criminal, civil, you name it, Kevin Flesh is there for you. 303-806-8886.
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This is Rush to Reason on KLZ 560. All right, we are back. Dave and Thornton, go ahead, sir.
SPEAKER 17 :
Yeah, John, this all ties back to what you were talking about in the last hour with the tariff center and everything else. You know, this globalist agenda that they have that’s against the success of the United States is all tied together as one large plan, and these are just parts of that same plan. You know, economically, they want us to suffer because our economy is the economy.
SPEAKER 06 :
Right.
SPEAKER 17 :
Everybody wants to come here and sell here. Everybody wants to do business here. Because why? Because we’ve set up a system where freedom to go out there, and you know this as well as anybody. You’re an entrepreneur yourself. You go out there, and if you’ve got the will and the guts to get out there and do it, you can get here, and you can make it very well. They all come here, whether it’s from England, Germany, Russia, Japan, the Chinese even. They want to buy. They want to invest. They want to do business here because we are the marketplace. We drive the world’s economy, and they want to take advantage of that. And if they can take advantage of that and hurt us at the same time, they will. There are no friends out there. Even our allies are not our friends.
SPEAKER 07 :
That’s right. That’s right, Dave. You’re 1,000% correct. And that’s what cracks me up about some of these people that are so against what Trump is doing right now. It’s like, okay, first of all, you couldn’t run a lemonade stand, most of these people that are complaining about it. Second of all, you might know… Yeah, absolutely.
SPEAKER 17 :
Exactly right. And, you know, as that old saying goes, you know, charity begins at home.
SPEAKER 06 :
That’s right.
SPEAKER 17 :
We can’t take care of anybody else. We can’t go help anybody else if we ourselves are suffering. I mean, it’s literally cutting off your nose in spite of your face. You’re not going to be able to help anyone if you’re a poor man.
SPEAKER 07 :
No, and what’s happened is, as a country, Dave, that what you just said, that’s exactly what’s happened to us. Thirty-six and a half… trillion dollars in debt, and it’s higher than that if you look at some of the other unfunded liabilities. And by the way, all of that because of the very things that you and I are talking about right now. We give 70-plus billion dollars away every year to a lot of other countries. We’ve got all sorts of social programs that are going on. We don’t do tariffs like we should. We’re getting killed in that particular area. I mean, I can go down the list, Dave, of the things that are happening, and it’s high time we started paying attention to what’s going on here at home. Donald Trump is, and… And I get it. There’s some fear that, you know, well, is he doing too much and are we going to be okay in the midterms? Well, fortunately, he’s doing this really early. The midterms, frankly, I don’t think most people are going to start paying any attention to those until probably January of 2026, January, February of 2026. So the reality is he’s got almost a year to get these things handled and done. And I think by then he will have. And, yes, we might go through a little bit of pain, Dave, in getting to where we want to go. But I’m willing to take that pain.
SPEAKER 17 :
Yeah, and I think another thing that a lot of people don’t seem to realize, it’s just history, and people are going to eventually learn about it, but prior to 1913, we didn’t have an IRS, and we didn’t have personal income tax. What we had were tariffs, and the government ran 100% off of tariffs that we charged other countries, and that funded the entire government. We did not need the tax system that we have now, and it’s become a big scam. against the average taxpaying American.
SPEAKER 07 :
Yeah, and some would come out and say, well, okay, so that means you’re either going to pay a tax in the goods itself, i.e., the tariff, or you can pay the income tax. Dave, I mean, I guess the way I look at it is I’d rather pay less in income tax, pay more for the goods if that’s how you want to consider it being done, then it’s more of a flat tax approach anyways. I’m fine with that.
SPEAKER 17 :
Yeah, absolutely. And guess what? Leave me to my own devices with my money. Maybe I turn around and I invest that money and I become that much more successful. Maybe start a business, become an entrepreneur, start hiring people, expand the economy by keeping people employed. That can happen. That’s what’s happened in the United States. There was one short video that I sent you on. There’s one guy who’d done a study. He was an MIT researcher. And he looked at the last large billion-dollar startups. And he said these are startups that started up from scratch, not from inherited money, not from mergers, not from anything. Straight from scratch startups. Apple, Amazon, Facebook, those kind of things. Every single one of those happened here in the freedom of the United States.
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That’s right.
SPEAKER 17 :
He did a contrast of Europe, and what happened in Europe is minuscule. to the wealth creation than what the United States is creating as far as creating millionaires and billionaires from scratch.
SPEAKER 07 :
That’s right. Well, and I go back to what we were talking about with Sonny Kutcher last hour, Dave, and that’s one thing I wish this administration would do a better job of talking about, and that is when a… a company like we’ll just use hyundai on the small side because there’s been a lot of other companies that have came in and talked about much larger investments we’ll just use hyundai in this case so south korea hyundai they have agreed to come in and put in 25 billion dollars into their own plants and so on that they can now make cars in america they want to make up to a million cars a year here in america uh in a mixture of by the way which is which is great more power to them What we don’t talk enough about, Dave, is the byproduct of what comes out of that $25 billion. In fact, what you just said a moment ago about some of the startups and some of the other companies that will be formed and some of the people that will go out and do things on their own to either help support the plant or the people that are now working in and or around the plant or for some of those companies that are servicing the plant. I can go down the list, Dave. The reality is, you know, just one plant alone, and I’m not exaggerating, one plant alone can literally handle a small town and the economy of.
SPEAKER 17 :
Absolutely. Absolutely. This is what I’m driving crazy about the whole thing, tying it all together about what you’re talking about with the globalists. It’s not just the economy, but this president is forcing the rest of the world to realize the United States is not going to be your policeman anymore.
SPEAKER 06 :
That’s right.
SPEAKER 17 :
You have the capacity to defend yourself. You defend yourself. We’re not going to cover that anymore. The Cold War is over. The Cold War is over. We won that war. This is now the peace dividend that we were promised by George Bush, number one. We’re not going to cover NATO anymore. Number two, we’ve been taking it. for years when it comes to immigration why people think that they’re just entitled to come in and then we’ve got our own citizens specifically democrats on the left and even some people on the right who believe that well they’re here now just let them stay no there’s a process there’s a process like you pointed out you can’t go to any other country around the world and say hey just let me in i don’t want to fill out any paperwork and i want to stay here as long as i want right they’re going to look at you like you’ve grown three heads and they’re going to say No, you’re going to get back on that plane. You’re going back from whence you came. Why people believe that the United States is somehow responsible to the world to bring in everybody’s dregs, bring in everybody’s problems. We’ve got our own problems. And like I said, you know, charity begins at home. We’re never going to be able to fix anything or help anyone out there if we’re destroying ourselves from within. And it’s not our responsibility. And thankfully, we’ve got a president now that’s saying, hey, you know what? This isn’t the responsibility of the people of the United States. These are your issues. You need to fix them. If you need help, and if we can help you, then we will. But it’s not going to fall to us primarily.
SPEAKER 07 :
That’s right. It’s interesting, Dave. Some of what you’re talking about, I just read an article. It just came through to me. Somebody sent this to me. It’s in Fox 31 talking about color repair shops, brace repair. for Trump tariffs. And there’s an interview in here. I’m not going to name names of a particular import shop here in town talking about tariffs and so on. And the fact in this particular shop’s case that 50% of the components that they work with come from either Canada or Mexico. Well, I can tell you right now, Dave, from being in the industry myself, They don’t have to. There are plenty of products that are made here in America whereby you’re not going to have any effect whatsoever on some of the things that we are talking about. Yes, there are some things that come from overseas or Mexico or Canada. And the reality is, Dave, they don’t have to. We do have enough manufacturing capacity and things along those lines in this country to shift some of those things right back here on almost an immediate basis. The problem is those manufacturers haven’t been incentivized to do so. These tariffs will do that.
SPEAKER 17 :
Absolutely. And it’s one of those things about the vagaries of an economy, an economy of scale. When you’re forced to change, you will. If you want to stay in business, as you pointed out, you’re going to adjust or you’re going to go out of business.
SPEAKER 08 :
Right.
SPEAKER 17 :
Plain and simple. And that’s what those companies will do. We have that capacity to grow and do what we’ve got to do. And should there be any kind of a pain that some producers might run into, it’s going to be short term. It’s not going to be a long-term, years-long, decades-long, as we’ve been suffering through with all of these trade imbalances that we’ve had with the rest of the world. That’s just not going to be it, Wade. Once these things get in line, because guess what? Eventually, don’t be surprised if by the end of the week, a lot of these countries are coming back and saying, hey, you know what? We didn’t realize you guys were serious. That 50%, 100% tariff that we had on your products, we’re not going to do that anymore. Let’s sit down and talk.
SPEAKER 07 :
Yep. I think you’re going to see a lot of that, Dave. You’re already starting to see it. You’re going to see more of it. I think Trump’s doing this the right way. A lot of people would disagree with me, but I think he’s doing it very well, and he’s setting the stage to where these guys are now going to bend the knee because, again, I’ve said this before, and I’ll keep saying it. We’re an almost $30 trillion a year gross domestic product. The next closest is China with around $18 trillion a year. The reality is we are so far above anybody else out there that they don’t have any choice but to bend the knee.
SPEAKER 17 :
Absolutely. Like I pointed out before, we are the marketplace.
SPEAKER 07 :
That’s right.
SPEAKER 17 :
We’re the customer. Everybody produces stuff to sell here, exactly. And the reason why is because of the freedoms that we have as a consumer society, as a free society. That’s right. Like it or not, they can bash consumerism, they can bash capitalism, but guess what? It’s what made this country great, and it’s going to continue to make it great if we don’t shoot ourselves in the foot.
SPEAKER 06 :
That’s right.
SPEAKER 17 :
wasting money willy-nilly, and thankfully, you know, Doge is coming out and pointing out a lot of the waste that a lot of people have known or suspected for years, but it hasn’t been, you know, Penn hasn’t been put to paper, and I wish they would really come out with a weekly regurgitation of what they found, you know, because then it would shock a majority of Americans into the reality that, hey, you know what, we can’t continue this way. I mean, you pointed out we’re already $36 trillion in debt and growing.
SPEAKER 06 :
Yep.
SPEAKER 17 :
You know, the president’s not going to be able to fix that, but he’s going to be able to put a dent in it, at least, or maybe slow the spending.
SPEAKER 07 :
Put a cork in it and try to slow it down some.
SPEAKER 17 :
Yeah, absolutely. I mean, you know… You may have been shot in the chest, and you may be bleeding, but if you don’t do something to stop the bleeding, you’re going to die.
SPEAKER 07 :
That’s right. I’ll leave it at that. Great comment. Dave, I appreciate it as well. Thank you very much. One last thing. These are the kind of articles, when I read these, I just think to myself, you really didn’t say that, did you? I’m not reading the article. I’m not going to throw any particular business under the bus, but in this particular article, when they’re talking about price of auto parts and so on, this particular auto shop owner says that his shop… We’ll likely try to absorb a bit of the cost of the increase of tariffs and so on. But we don’t have a whole lot of room for dropping margin to absorb the tariffs ourselves and stay in business. You’re not going to absorb any of those. You are a business. You’re an auto shop business. I coach auto shops. I know exactly what your margins need to be to stay in business. And if you try to absorb any of those at all whatsoever, you won’t be in business. So this is my point with this. Don’t lie to us. So I’m sorry, but you can go read this article for yourself. This would be the last shop I would ever take my car to because this person is flat out lying because, no, they won’t absorb any of this because if they do, they won’t stay in business. So at the end of the day, no, they’re going to have to pass these along just like any other business does. That’s the way it works. And don’t lie to us in the process. Sorry, I’ll get off my high horse and move on. All right, Roof Savers of Colorado coming up next. Dave Hart would love to help you with whatever your roof need is. Commercial, residential, all under one roof. He can extend the life of your roof, replace your entire roof. Call Dave today, 303-710-6916.
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The best export we have is common sense. You’re listening to Rush to Reason.
SPEAKER 07 :
All right, we are back. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. Scott Garlis will be joining us here in one moment. Before that, though, this is interesting news that was out on X this morning, and I have not verified this, but this would not surprise me that Amazon has put in a last-minute bid to acquire all of TikTok. which there is a deadline coming up, I believe it is this coming Sunday, for something to happen along those lines or it may go dark again unless President Trump decides to extend that out. I don’t know exactly how that’s going to play out. My gut feeling is TikTok’s not going anywhere. It will get settled. Somebody will figure out a way to make that happen. It might even be somebody like an Amazon time will tell. But Scott Garlis joining us now. Scott, welcome. Hey, John, how are you? I was just talking about how Amazon looks like they put in a last-minute bid for TikTok.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yes, yes. Is that true?
SPEAKER 07 :
So did I hear that correctly?
SPEAKER 09 :
Yeah, I was reading some stories about that today.
SPEAKER 07 :
Yes, that is true. And the deadline is coming up. Is it not Sunday that they at least need to decide one direction or another what’s going to happen? Is that not the deadline?
SPEAKER 09 :
Yeah, I for some reason thought the deadline might have even been today, but yes, it’s very soon.
SPEAKER 07 :
It’s looming is the point. Yes, that’s correct. All right, so talk to us about all kinds of stuff happening. We’ve got a slowdown in the labor market. The economy is not looking as good as what maybe some would have said. In fact, what I would say, Scott, is, and maybe this is me just being who I am, But it’s funny how as we start to shut down some of the waste, fraud, and abuse that Doge is finding, that we’re now starting to see an overall slowdown in the economy, meaning that if the Fed had been sharp and had known, like you and I, that a lot of this was going on anyways, they would have already lowered interest rates another half a point by now, which they should have already done, because the reality is they’re now behind once again. Because what’s really happening is once you pull out some of this government spending, even in relation to some of the waste, fraud, and abuse, yeah, the economy’s not as good as everybody thinks.
SPEAKER 09 :
Well, yes, that’s correct. So they can only deal with the data sets they’re being presented with. I agree.
SPEAKER 07 :
The problem with that is they’re inaccurate.
SPEAKER 09 :
That’s exactly where I’m going, yes. So if the BLS is reporting numbers that aren’t right and they’re inflated or… They’ve been inflated because of things that are going on, and now that is being taken away. Yes, they have inflated. Sorry for saying that word three times so quickly. No, you’re fine. You’re right. The numbers have been created that shouldn’t have been there in the first place, and you’re exactly right. So that has held the central bank from normalizing policy. And so now you’re running into a problem where it’s like, wait a second, all these other things are going on. Monetary policy or interest rates are way higher than they should have been the Fed is going to have to course correct.
SPEAKER 07 :
So how quickly, and I know the Fed said last meeting that, you know, we can only maybe see a couple of rate cuts for all of 2025, which, again, I understand they can make a prediction and they can go back on those predictions based upon the real numbers and things that start to come out. Now that some of these real numbers are coming out, and, again, some of this quote-unquote government spending is now slowing down, therefore lowering inflation and so on, even with tariffs and so on, I don’t think you’re going to see the inflation numbers that the Fed maybe had even been expecting. I think it’s going to get below that. So my question is, will the Fed reverse course and actually start lowering rates?
SPEAKER 09 :
I mean, they should. Now, how aggressively they do it or whether they do it remains to be seen. I mean, yesterday, the bond market was building in five rate cuts. Right now, it looks like um one two three four ray cuts are built in they had one in for late late 26 they just wish they’d back that one out we’ll see um yeah i mean if that could do it they could do it all in one meeting i doubt they would they my guess would be they’re going to want to do it gradually not to give the appearance like hey economic collapse but you do have the atlanta fed that recently put out a uh It’s GDP now forecast for the first quarter. It’s estimating, I believe it was a negative 3.8% growth number.
SPEAKER 07 :
Saw that.
SPEAKER 09 :
That’s a big court shift. I mean, at the beginning of the quarter, they were talking about up like 2%. Right. And now to be all the way down to negative 3.8%, that would be interesting. Now, I will caveat that with, They tend to be a little aggressive on the upside. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re a bit overly aggressive on the downside. So, yeah, maybe the number isn’t quite this bad. Maybe it’s more like zero. We’ll see. But still, it’s going to be lower than where it has been.
SPEAKER 07 :
Well, and again, like you, I don’t have a crystal ball. I’m not in the Fed’s mind. I don’t know what they think or how they look at things and so on. What I do know is that to get some things back on track, economically speaking, regardless of what even happens on tariffs, because the reality is, Scott, I mean, there might be a little effect on some things that go into housing, but typically construction and those sorts of things, it might be a little bit of lumber, but I think even that’s gotten itself dialed in with Canada. The reality is there’s not going to be much of a change when it comes to lumber and building goods and so on. The reality is the cost to build a house isn’t going to change a whole lot. So my point is the only way they’re going to get houses sold moving forward is they’re going to have to get the rate dropped.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yeah, housing numbers have waned a little bit. We’ve seen a home builder recently come out and See, not good things about demand. Yeah, I mean, look, if hiring is slowing, I would think all those things come into effect. And, yes, you need rates to drop. Again, the housing market is a big part of the economy. Construction and the ancillary businesses associated account for typically between 15% and 18% of economic output. So, yes, if you want to get a part of the economy really revving that you need, that would be a good way to do it, drop rates. get the homebuilders to see demand pick back up, business pick back up. That would be a good thing.
SPEAKER 07 :
Yeah, and again, for those of you listening that would say, because I’ve heard this from listeners at times, Scott, where it’s like, well, hey, we’ve had rates in the past where you look at the rate trends throughout the years on a 30-year mortgage, and the reality is there’s nothing wrong with a 5%, 6%, 7% mortgage. Well… scott i wouldn’t normally disagree with that the exception in this case though is when a lot of people are used to a three to four percent range and now they’re at six and a half percent that’s a big difference and unfortunately Because of what the Fed created even back in the day of getting those rates all the way down into that 3% to 4% range, the reality is I don’t see that changing for quite some time. To keep housing moving forward and continuing to have a good positive trajectory, I hate to say this. They’ve baited them. They’ve given them the cocaine, if you would. They’ve been outside the schoolyard baiting these kids on how that works. The reality is they now can’t pull it away. The only way you’re going to keep that going is to have 5.5% or lower mortgage rates, or you’re not going to sell houses like you used to.
SPEAKER 09 :
So basically since, what, 2009, people have been stuck on almost a zero or very low interest rates. When I bought my house in 2003, I believe the mortgage rate was six and seven-eighths, and I can remember my dad saying that’s an incredible long-term… Yeah, because my first house was nine and three-quarter, and that was a good rate then. Yes, exactly. And so, yeah, I mean, so people have got, because we dealt with ultra-loose monetary policy, low rates for so long, the economy had adjusted to it. And then… To go through a cycle back in 22 where you raised rates at the fastest time in the last 45 years, that is a very abrupt shock to the system. But to your point, though, the positive side of this is they have a lot of firepower to cut rates and support the economy. They do. So while it’s been painful, that is a silver lining.
SPEAKER 07 :
That’s true. No, that’s a plus. And, you know, me, I’m one, and I know I talk about this a lot, and I’ve had several different discussions, not necessarily arguments, but discussions with Scott, even family members at times when it comes to tariffs, because… I am one that says it’s high time. I know it’s going to be a little bit painful, but we’ve got to get some of these other countries in check. We’ve let them run rip shot over us for far too long. We’ve got to get some of these things back in order and quit being the stepping stone for the rest of the world. We are the largest GDP on the planet by a long shot. We are the ultimate buyer of goods when it’s all said and done. And as the buyer, as the customer, they need to start listening to us.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, I tell you, another big thing going on here, John, that could really help things, too, is the Fed is dialing back up its balance sheet. So we talked a lot about quantitative tightening. Originally, I don’t think we have. But the Fed is backing off on the amount of bonds it’s letting mature. It could do that even more. And again, that’ll be another thing that’ll help ease interest rates. You know, I think a lot of this is focused on bringing down the yield on the 10-year bond as well. And to your point, sort of deflating some of the false economic growth that’s out there and rebasing things. And so if you want prices to come down, if you want the economy to reset and then rebuild from there, it feels like you have to go through some of this pain. And it’s been staved off for the last year.
SPEAKER 07 :
So recession, that’s always the big R word, and I kind of promoed you talking a little bit about that and your thoughts. I mean, I think even President Trump feels like we might have a little bit of a hiccup, and frankly, I think he wants one because I think he knows that’s another way to actually get the Fed to move on things and get things really bounced back heavily as we enter into 2026, which would be great for the midterm. So I think he’s wanting that to happen. So what are your thoughts on recession?
SPEAKER 09 :
I mean, yeah, to that end, yes, it could happen. You could see a shallow one, and that would definitely reset a lot of different things. And again, back to resetting prices and getting rates way down, that would really help demand. And what you’re asking on the front end of this conversation about could the Fed be more aggressive, if you had a recession, that could be the impetus for the Fed to get very aggressive on stimulating the economy.
SPEAKER 07 :
Mm-hmm. Well, I mean, personally, I think they need to. I think you start pulling back more of these numbers, pull back the curtain more on some of this wasteful spending that’s happening, governmentally speaking, and you start realizing that, wait a minute, we’re not quite in as good a shape as we once thought we were. And I think more of that’s going to start coming out in the data. As you know, data always lags in that particular area. In other words, you know, Doge could shut something down January 1. You may not see the real numbers show up on that until April 1.
SPEAKER 09 :
That’s correct. A good friend of mine recently pointed this out to me. It’s been a while since we’ve seen any sort of pullback in government hiring. And so what we’re going through right now might be overdue. And so it might seem greater and feel, again, back to the feel more painful than maybe it really should be. But a big part of that could be because It hasn’t really happened, and because it’s overdue and it’s built up so much, it seems worse than it really is.
SPEAKER 07 :
Scott, we have gotten into the habit in this country, and this is long, long overdue, because in my entire lifetime, the theory always was if you go to work for government, city, state, feds, whatever, once you go to work for them, you’re going to have a job for life. Unless you royally screw up and end up in prison… or die, you’re liable to not lose that job. And by the way, that is something that, in my opinion, needs to be completely reversed. You need to perform to keep your job. Just because you have it doesn’t mean you keep it.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yeah, I would agree. I still don’t understand. Look, I think lifetime pensions, because that’s Why shouldn’t you be treated just like every other employee at every other company? And you pay money into a 401K and a retirement plan. Look, you’re a cop or a firefighter, and you’re part of the military, and you’re getting shot at. That’s a different story. I get that.
SPEAKER 07 :
I agree with you.
SPEAKER 09 :
You guys are putting their lives on the line. I agree with you.
SPEAKER 07 :
They deserve it.
SPEAKER 09 :
But others, like doing some of these other things, You know, if you go serve in Congress for four years, you shouldn’t get a lifetime pension. I agree. You shouldn’t have a different health care plan than you’re voting to put on other people. You should be just like the rest of us because they get back to another thing you were talking about earlier. You’re there to serve us. We’re not there to serve you.
SPEAKER 07 :
That’s right. That’s right. What you would do, Scott, in doing some of the things you just said is de-incentivize certain people from getting into politics, what I call grifter politicians. You would discourage grifter politicians from ever getting in the game in the first place if you changed what you just talked about. And you’d have better politicians, by the way.
SPEAKER 09 :
Well, and the role of going – so our forefathers, when they founded the government, in my mind, it wasn’t so you get there to go rich. Nope. It was because – You went to serve. You’ve had a good – yeah, you’ve had a good career maybe, and you went there because – you want to do things to make the country better, more sound.
SPEAKER 07 :
In some cases, Scott, it was even the opposite. In some cases, these guys were really young, and they went to actually have a better country that they could come back to and then serve in their private life. So in some cases, yes, they had a good career and then served. In some cases, they were pretty young and served because they knew what the outcome would be on the flip side. Either way, they went to serve, not be lifelong politicians.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yes, that’s right.
SPEAKER 07 :
Absolutely. Scott, as always, I appreciate it. How do folks find you?
SPEAKER 09 :
Yeah, sure. Link in Twitter, Instagram, or Substack. See Scott Garlis.
SPEAKER 07 :
Scott, I always appreciate it. Appreciate you very much. Thanks for your time. All right, man, have a great evening. And Scott’s a good guy. He thinks a lot like we do. Not a lot. He thinks like we do. We talk back and forth throughout the week on different things, and he’s a solid guy, really understands the investment end of things very, very well. Speaking of interest rates, where are things going to go when it comes to mortgages and so on? You know, folks, I don’t know, but I do believe that Kurt can tell you everything you need to know when it comes to a mortgage. Give Kurt a call today, Affordable Interest Mortgage, 720-895-0500.
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SPEAKER 07 :
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SPEAKER 11 :
This isn’t rage radio. This is real, relatable radio. Back to Rush to Reason.
SPEAKER 07 :
All right, got a couple of minutes to close out today, and because I was talking to Scott Garlis about this with the political grifters, might as well close with this, because frankly, there’s far too many of them on both sides of the aisle. The left has them, and you’re darn right, we have them as well. I’m sorry to say. There’s a lot of folks, I believe, and again, I’ve been on air for, I don’t know, 11 plus years now, And I can tell you by interviewing all sorts of different politicians, having conversations directly with politicians and so on, it’s like anything else. There’s some really good ones. Solid. You know, they love America. They want to do what’s best. They’re not in it for themselves. They’re in it for the country or their community or whatever the case may be. And they’re looking out for whatever that best interest is of those folks that they’re trying to represent. And I do believe there’s some really good, solid people along those lines. And by the way. Those are typically people. This is kind of my kind of my test. And I could be completely wrong in this. And if I am, you guys can text me and correct me if I’m wrong. But I typically look at that test as have they been successful? Outside of politics in their own life, whereby they don’t need politics to fund what they’re doing moving forward. In other words, have they been able to make enough money and do things in their life like a Vivek, like a Elon Musk, like a Donald Trump, like a I can go down the list of a lot of good politicians that I feel are good and have the country’s best interests at heart because they don’t need that to further their career. On the same token, I can look at some politicians, both sides of the aisle, and say, are they really in this for the community, and are they in this for the long haul, or are they in it for themselves, and are they just a political grifter? In other words, if they’ve never really done anything other than be in politics, what are they really in it for? Now, there is always an exception. Our governor is an exception to this. He’s a guy that, yes, made a lot of money prior to ever getting into politics. Now, in his case, I believe he got into politics mainly because he wants to be president someday. This is an ego thing for him more than it is anything else. He’s not in it for the people. He’s still in it for himself. Even though he’s made money and done things, and I don’t call him a political grifter because that’s not what Polis is. No, he’s a political opportunist. He’s looking at what can he gain politically speaking and further himself along. He didn’t care anything about the community or Colorado or anything along those lines. This is all about him. So he is an exception to what I just said. But generally speaking, people that get into politics that have already made a name for themselves, they’ve made some money, they’ve done whatever, they’re typically getting into politics for a completely different set of reasons than what I call those political grifters. So one of the tests that I use, even among our own Republicans, are what have you done prior to this? Kind of what I was talking about in regards to the state chair. And who was going to be that? And as it turned out, Britta Horne got elected. Britta’s done some things and accomplished things in life outside of politics, which I admire her for. There were some others running that, frankly, haven’t done anything outside of politics. And I don’t want them, by the way, leading the party. I want people that have done other things in life, had real jobs, if you would, that I want leading the party. I don’t want just politicians, which, by the way, is what Dave Williams was as well. I don’t want just politicians running the party. I want people that understand what the real person out there goes through on a daily basis. So I can talk more about that in the future, but I have a very much utter disdain for political grifters, and there’s far too many on both sides of the aisle, and at the end of the day, they don’t serve us well either way, either side of the aisle, I’m afraid to say so. A lot more to come tomorrow. Have a great evening. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560.
