Join John Rush on Rush to Reason as he dismantles misleading narratives in business and media. With a spotlight on Denver’s real estate landscape, John critiques viral posts suggesting market turmoil, presenting statistics and expert insights to debunk such existential threats. He encourages listeners to scrutinize ‘expert’ opinions that are often based on flawed interpretations or outright fabrications. In the broader conversation, John reflects on the challenges of entrepreneurship. He highlights the discrepancy between the allure of business ownership and the gritty reality of effort required, calling attention to the significance of sustained hard work and realistic expectations. By
SPEAKER 03 :
This is Rush to Reason.
SPEAKER 05 :
You are going to shut your damn yapper and listen for a change because I got you pegged, sweetheart. You want to take the easy way out because you’re scared. And you’re scared because if you try and fail, there’s only you to blame. Let me break this down for you. Life is scary. Get used to it. There are no magical fixes.
SPEAKER 06 :
With your host, John Rush.
SPEAKER 13 :
My advice to you is to do what your parents did!
SPEAKER 09 :
Get a job, Turk! You haven’t made everybody equal. You’ve made them the same, and there’s a big difference.
SPEAKER 16 :
Let me tell you why you’re here. You’re here because you know something. What you know, you can’t explain. But you feel it. You’ve felt it your entire life. That there’s something wrong with the world. You don’t know what it is, but it’s there. It is this feeling that has brought you to me.
SPEAKER 05 :
Are you crazy? Am I? Or am I so sane that you just blew your mind?
SPEAKER 03 :
It’s Rush to Reason with your host, John Rush. Presented by Cub Creek Heating and Air Conditioning.
SPEAKER 14 :
All right, welcome back. Hour number three, Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. Somebody just sent me through the text line, and I was reading through this, and I have not had time to research this, but this is coming from an ex-post from Recovering Woke, talking about Redfin projects Denver will have the most homes on the market per capita in the U.S., coupled with having the highest apartment vacancy rate since 08, and property value is falling. I don’t know where these people are getting their information from, because… That’s not the case. There’s been some adjustments in every market across the country, but I don’t think that’s a blanket. You can’t say that as a blanket statement. We’re on the path to becoming the next Detroit city bankruptcy and all. Yeah, no, we’re not. I mean, again, this goes back to some of the things I’ve talked about yesterday and even Monday, but Andy and I talked a little bit about that yesterday. This is nothing more than clickbait. Nothing more than clickbait. And some would say, what do you mean, John? This is just to get people to read, to get all excited, to get all worked up over it, get this thing retweeted, which it’s been hearted 851 times and retweeted 176 times. There’s 93 comments on it. Now, I have not gone and looked at the Redfin data to determine if, in fact, that’s the case. Now, keep in mind, there’s all sorts of naysayers out there in the real estate end of things, just like there’s naysayers in the car end of things. And I talk about both sides of it pretty frequently. And I’ll just tell you straight up here in the front range market, there still isn’t enough homes to go around. Yes, there has been some some. And some homes that have been on the market a little bit, they’ve been stagnant. I guess you could say some have had to have some price adjustments made, although I will tell you that there’s more activity right now and has been in the last couple of weeks than has been happening probably in the last six months. And I can explain why that is maybe on an individual basis. But bottom line, no, we are not even close to becoming the next Detroit. Right. So, again, I don’t know who recovering woke is. Don’t really care. Again, these are people that, in my opinion, and this is a conservative individual, sounds like a recovering woke handle would tell you that they are conservative, although they are, sorry, they’re just dead wrong. I don’t know how else to say it. They’re dead wrong. And again, I don’t know if Redfin really said this. What this particular post is doing is referring a YouTube video that is titled Redfin, the housing market is toast. That doesn’t mean it’s a report coming from Redfin. Again, I have to go back in and watch all of this. This is a particular individual that is… is talking, I’m watching the video kind of as we speak in the background. I can’t play because I don’t know what’s exactly said, but this is an individual that probably is a quote-unquote expert. Now, okay, I’ve got to stop for a moment. There are a ton of quote-unquote experts that are out there. They have, you know, they’re quote-unquote influencers. They’ve got a YouTube channel. They’re on TikTok. They’re this, they’re that. Are they an expert, though, at any of this? I don’t know. What are their credentials? I don’t know. And by the way, just because they have credentials doesn’t make them an expert. And I’ll give you an example. We do health and wellness on Wednesdays. We did that at 3 o’clock today. And my second guest today, nice gentleman, by the way, doctor, he was criticizing red meat. Now, I’m not going to argue with guests that we have on and people that write books and so on, but I’ll just be straight up honest with you. There’s nothing wrong with eating red meat. I’ve done many interviews with many different people on that. There is no conclusive, solid evidence that will tell you that if you eat too much red meat, you’re going to die. or end up with heart disease or anything else along those lines. In fact, most dieticians will tell you, most folks I even interview along those lines will tell you that, you know what? No, you probably shouldn’t eat red meat every day, no more than you should eat fish every day, no more than you should eat chicken every day, no more than you should get the drift. It’s called balance. No, you shouldn’t have a steak every night of the week, although a lot of people do. More power to you. I love red meat. I love steak. I could eat it every night. I don’t because, again, I’m one of those that believes there should be some balance. And is it good to eat red meat every night? I don’t think it’s good to eat anything the same thing every night. So no different than I would say that vegetarians would disagree with me. I don’t think it’s healthy to have a big salad every night. Again, it comes back down to balance. So my point is, just because somebody claims to be an expert… are they well you have to follow what they say and how accurate is what they say in other words their predictions and so on how accurate is it and and if it’s not if they don’t have a very good track record how much of an expert are they i mean i i’ve talked here on this program for gosh I think since we had the last big housing debacle, you know, all the way back in 08, and I wasn’t on air daily at that time. I was on air with Drive Radio. But the reality is, you know, there has been all sorts of quote unquote bubbles that were supposed to have burst by now. whether that was during COVID, after COVID, et cetera. And the reality is, in most cases, these guys are dead wrong. I can remember predictions of, you know, the used car market’s going to crash. That was through COVID. I can’t tell you how many of those guys said that. Did any of that turn out to be true? Nope. Opposite. Opposite. Used car market got better, not worse. So just because somebody claims to be an expert doesn’t mean they are. They might be an expert at getting clicks and getting you to watch their videos and pumping things up enough to get things going in that direction. And they may be an expert in that, but that doesn’t mean they’re an expert in the content that they’re talking about. And I cannot say that enough. And that’s my problem with and why I personally, I don’t listen to any other talk shows. I don’t watch anybody else on TV. I don’t listen to any podcasts. I’ll get people all the time telling me, you know, watch this guy, watch that guy. Now, I’ll watch some short clips and different things from different people where I can learn some things, and I’m not saying that. But I don’t listen to podcasts. Frankly, I find a lot of them to be absolutely boring. I don’t know why, probably because I sit in this chair enough where I understand what goes into it. And a lot of the podcasts are just absolute monotone, not a lot of information, not done quickly enough. And I guess maybe because I’m time constrained here, I understand that you’ve got to get information out as quickly as you possibly can. And no, we don’t have three hours of a podcast to do one subject. which some podcasts will do. Am I right, Charlie? Some will go that long on one particular subject. They can get really in-depth, really off in the weeds. I can’t do that. I don’t have the air time to do that here. Now, sometimes we can really delve into something. If I feel like it’s something that really needs to be put out there, yeah, we can delve into the weeds on a few things, and we do at times. But do we do that on a daily basis? No, that’s on more of a seldom basis where we get into it that way. Now, I’ve always said… and I think Charlie would agree with me here, as a talk show host, I have to have an inch of knowledge a mile wide. In other words, I need to know a little bit about a lot of things to sit here behind this microphone and talk about it. Does it mean I’m an expert in a lot of these areas? No. On the same token, if I had a mile’s worth of knowledge that was only, in other words, it was a mile deep and an inch wide, I wouldn’t have a lot to talk about as a talk show host. And by the way, there’s some really, really good, solid talk show hosts out there that do know certain subjects a mile deep, but that’s about all they can talk about. You get them off of that, and they’re boring. A lot of podcasters, by the way, are that way as well. And they may be very deep in a particular subject, but they’re not very wide in it, and I find them boring. Maybe that’s just me, my ADHD, whatever. I don’t know, but I find that to be extremely boring. I can’t listen to that, so I don’t. So, again, what I’m getting at is, and I talked about this in the podcast that you’ll hear tonight at 5 o’clock, or at 6 o’clock, rather. It was just me and Neil Boron today. And we talked about AI and cognitive dissidence, like we talked about with Joe from Jersey yesterday a little bit, and talking about, you know, you might want to believe something that’s AI-generated just because it’s something you would hope to be true. But we have to be extremely careful in all of those things, the reposting of, the liking of, and so on. And I find that in a lot of cases, some of this sort of stuff isn’t far off of that. In fact, this particular person that’s talking about a market crash here in Denver with real estate. And by the way, will there be one? I don’t foggiest idea. I can’t predict a future. Neither can they. I will tell you that the indicators don’t show that. The housing market here doesn’t show that. If you talk to a lot of realtors, they would agree with me. It doesn’t show that. In fact, it still shows that we have a lack of supply and there’s a lot of buyers out there that are still looking. Now, have interest rates slowed a lot of that down? Yes, it has. I’ve explained that many times on this program. And until they come back around and we get them down to a mid-fives or so, I don’t think it’s going to really, really take off. We’re only a point away from that, by the way. You can, in a lot of situations, get a mid-six loan right now, spending money on credit and all sorts of other things. But bottom line, my advice to a lot of you is be careful who you watch, what you watch, what you believe in, because if it’s just something where somebody’s trying to gain clicks, a lot like Alex Jones, which you guys all know I rarely, if ever, have played anything from Alex Jones from the day I’ve been on daily. And Alex was big back when I started doing this program on a daily basis, which was like 2012, 2013, something like that. And he was big then. He since is not as big as he once was because of obvious things that have happened to him. But I’ve never taken much of what Alex has said and repeated it on my program for obvious reasons. Has that turned out to be a good thing for me? I think so, because I think in a lot of cases, Alex is a wackadoodle. He says a lot of things that are outlandish just so he can get more views and clicks and so on. I’m not that. I explained that on this program on Monday. I’m not that. Don’t look for that here. I’m not going to ever be that person. Don’t look for me to be big on social media. It’s not my jam, not what I want to do. I don’t like being, A, I don’t like being on video. B, I’m just not a self-serving individual along those lines. I just can’t do that. It’s not in my DNA like a lot of other people can do. I don’t even like coming on here and talking about personal things that I even do from time to time because it’s just not who I am. I don’t want to be that person. So I’m a little different in that realm than what maybe a lot of other hosts are, not only here locally, but across the country, because I look at things differently than most do. And I hope that bodes well for me and my program and those of you that listen on a regular basis. So Flesh Law is up next. Kevin Flesh, who, by the way, is not afraid to go to court. And also, I think it would agree with me when it comes to the judge thing I talked about earlier. Somebody commented on and told me that, yes, I was correct, that a lot of judges have a God complex, and they do. I think Kevin would probably agree with me on that. But he’s there to represent you. Criminal, civil, doesn’t matter. Kevin Flesch, 303-806-8886.
SPEAKER 10 :
Here’s why you need personal injury attorney Kevin Flesch on your side. He understands the way the jury thinks. In the context of a personal injury case, you’ve been hurt by someone else’s negligence. The idea is that you’re going to try to recover so that you can get back to where you were just prior to that incident occurring. What that really means from a jurist’s perspective is that you’re going to be asking them to award you money. So when we talk about fairness, we’re talking about six people that you don’t know. Those six people view the evidence and make a unanimous decision that will decide what the fair value is. When you’re the one who’s hurt, you have a good idea of what you think it’s worth. The question is, can you persuade those other individuals whom you don’t know and were witnesses to believe that’s what the case is worth? Kevin Flesch understands the way the jury thinks. Call now for a free consultation, 303-806-8886.
SPEAKER 14 :
All right, Dr. Scott Faulkner, who really does believe the same way we do here on Rush to Reason. He has hosted for me many a Wednesday on health and wellness. We’ve had him on our Thursday editions many times in the past when Dr. Kelly couldn’t join us. And Scott thinks just like we do. Find him today by calling 303-663-6990.
SPEAKER 11 :
Are you looking for a healthcare provider who truly cares about you and your well-being? Look no further than Castle Rock Regenerative Healthcare, where Dr. Scott Faulkner is ready to provide you with top-notch care. At Castle Rock Regenerative Healthcare, you’ll experience a competent, friendly, and efficient staff that puts your comfort and care first. Dr. Scott Faulkner is a true advocate of the latest advancements in healthcare and weight loss. Worried about being lost in the crowd of impersonal health care? Fear not. Dr. Scott is a big picture doctor, not beholden to big pharma or big insurance like some other providers. He takes the time to understand your unique needs and will customize your health care to fit you, your body, and your lifestyle. Tired of waiting weeks for an appointment? Unlike other practices, Dr. Scott Faulkner has the remarkable ability to see you in a matter of days. Reach your full potential and achieve your goals. Call Dr. Scott today at 303-663-6990 or visit him online at castlerockregenerativehealth.com or find him at rushtoreason.com. Castle Rock Regenerative Health Care, your path to a healthier tomorrow.
SPEAKER 14 :
This is Rush to Reason on KLZ 560. All right, story that was in Colorado Sun, which I’ve talked a little bit about this in the past. I did it probably two months ago, maybe three now. Time flies, so I kind of lose track of when I talk about certain things and it might have even been longer than that. But there’s an article in the Colorado Sun. which is a very left-leaning publication website here in the Colorado area. But, you know, I read some of the things they say because I read what the left says. In this particular case, it’s just factual information that I’m going to use and talk about. High number of new business filings in Colorado in the first quarter of this year helped put the state back on a normal growth rate post-pandemic. Again, folks, kind of going back to what I was talking about a moment ago with a complete real estate market crash in Colorado. No, I don’t see it. This is kind of even proving that. But more than 48,000 businesses started up during the first quarter, up 19% from the December quarter. Now, that’s not uncommon. A lot of people will wait and start a business at the beginning of the year instead of the end of the year. So, that’s not really uncommon to see that happen. Typically, you’re going to see first quarter be above fourth quarter. It’s just the way things work when it comes to starting businesses. This was the highest quarterly number since the second quarter of 2023 when the state offered a filing fee discount to rejuvenate small businesses post-COVID. But the game was probably more about seasonality than anything else, like I said a moment ago. And that comes from Brian Lewandowski, executive director at the University of Colorado’s Business Research Division. He’s from the Leeds School of Business as well. It’s a seasonal pattern, he says. In fact, when I look back over time from 2005 onward, it’s even a little bit lower than the average increase of about 23 or 24 percent. Again, this is usual. This is what he’s saying. It’s what I said a moment ago. So there’s a senior, Richard Wabakind, a senior economist at Leeds who works with Landowski, said that the uptick is encouraging, especially in light of the current uncertain economic environment. On the other hand, though, the number of companies that filed to dissolve also increased to 16,000. just barely up about 0.7% from a year ago, but the number of companies in good standing continue to grow. That was up 1.1%. So whether folks are starting new businesses because of a lost job or uncertainty they feel about the economy or other economic indicators, seem to have Colorado holding steady with no large increases or declines. Now, you’re always going to see some that go out of business. especially new businesses that go out of business. And I’ve explained that again on this program in the past, and my opinion is different than others. Some will tell you that, well, businesses go out of business because they didn’t have a good business plan or they didn’t have the correct funding or they didn’t do this right or they didn’t do that right. You can kind of go down the list of things that people will blame the failed business on. I will tell you that my firm belief is As to why most businesses fail and not all, because there are other extenuating factors that can kind of come into play that isn’t the fault of said owner or something along those lines. But I will tell you straight up that I believe the majority of businesses fail because they never understood from the front side how much effort would be required to make that business operate and be successful. And when it comes down to it, they are not willing to invest that time to make it happen. They think owning a business is going to be a cakewalk. They get into business thinking, oh, I know how to do this better than my boss does or the owner of my company does. I’m just going to go out and do it on my own. Well, they soon realize that it’s a lot harder than it looks, number one. And number two, it takes a lot more time to make it work than they ever thought it was going to take. And in turn, they’re not willing to do it. They’re not willing to put the effort in, in other words, to make it happen. So I feel like a lot of businesses fail early on for that reason and that reason alone. It could be money, yes. It could be the fact that they didn’t have a good business plan. Yeah, I get that. Could be they didn’t market well enough and didn’t have that in the right plan. Okay, yeah, I get that as well. But frankly, all of what I just said can be overcome with hard work. Even the lack of funding can be overcome with hard work. Out-hustle the next guy. Out-sell the next guy. Out-produce the next guy. Business-wise, I mean. And you’ll be successful. The majority of businesses that fail, in my opinion, fail because they’re not willing to put the effort in to make it work. And somebody didn’t tell them on the front side, this is how much effort it’s going to take. Yes, you’ll be working 70, 80 hours a week to make this thing work. And I do believe there’s a lot of people out there that if they heard that, they’ve got their 40-hour-a-week job now, and they think, oh, geez, okay, well, I’ll just go out on my own. But then somebody comes along and says, you know, you’re going to be working a minimum, minimum of 60 to 70 hours a week, and in some cases more, to actually make this thing work. I think some would reconsider whether they want to do it or not. And nobody comes along and tells them that, by the way. In fact, sometimes I think it’s quite the opposite. Some will come along and say, oh, yeah, you would be good at that. You’ve got the skill set. You can do this. You can do that. You’ve got a history of doing such and such. You’ll be just fine. And maybe they do have the right skill set. Maybe they’re extremely smart. Maybe they’ve got a really, really high IQ. But maybe they don’t have the effort skills. I don’t even know if there’s a word for that, Charlie, if there’s an acronym for effort IQ. There’s the intelligence IQ. There’s the EQ, Charlie. What did it stand for? Emotional. There you go, the EQ, the emotional side. There needs to be one called the EQ, the effort Q. No one’s ever defined that. No one’s ever talked about that, by the way. It’s not really even in the business world, but believe me, it’s a reality. And if you don’t have the effort cue, you’re not going to make it. Your business will fail. Very rarely do you have a good enough idea to come along and work less than what your current job is and be successful at the end of the day. Most of you that are business owners that have done this for any length of time, I have to believe you’re agreeing with me right now. You are nodding your head in agreement with me right now because you know exactly what I’m talking about. And so many people get into business thinking, oh, this will be easy. I know more about it than my boss does. In fact, the only reason the business does well is because I’m there. So I’ll just go do this on my own. Well, yeah, more power to you. The problem is you don’t know everything that happens behind the scenes to make things work and or the amount of work that your boss does that you don’t see. You’re not understanding that. You don’t see that. So you don’t know it exists. And then when you get into it, you realize that, oh, geez, they must be putting in 78 hours, 80 hours a week. And I don’t want to do that. Now, I will say this. There’s a lot of business owners that once they get things dialed in and set up and rolling, they’re not working 80 hours anymore. But they paid their dues at one point. They did at one point. They may not now because they’ve got things built up and they’ve got people working for them and they’ve put the right systems in place and they’ve got things to the point where it will run itself, which is every business owner’s dream, by the way, is to get there. It’s what I try to get my clients to do. It’s my goal to have them do that. When I coach, I try to get my people to that level because it’s doable. It’s attainable. And that’s the way businesses should operate. And when you get your business to that point, it’s worth the most money, by the way, because it’s autonomous. Anybody can buy it. Anybody can make it work at that point. But going back to this article, again, talking about even the real estate thing that I led into with this, to where somebody out there on some YouTube channel is talking about how Denver is going to crash housing market-wise. Now, internally, the city of Denver, yeah, it has some real issues. Mike Johnson’s just a klutz of a mayor. I don’t know any other way to put it. He’s a moron. He has no idea what he’s doing. So the city of Denver could have some real problems, absolutely. The surrounding areas, though, and the state of Colorado in general, when it comes to health of the state and real estate and so on, yeah, I don’t see that happening at all. I just don’t see that happening at all. And part of what I’m reading here and what I’m talking about when it comes to new starts and businesses and so on, I think solidify what I’m saying. You wouldn’t have these new starts and things going on. Now, I also will tell you, and you guys all know this that are in business, sometimes business formations can be just somebody doing some reorganizing of their even current business. Doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s even a whole new business starting. Could be a sub-business of something they’ve already got going. Now, in turn, that’s growth. That’s good. That’s still a plus. It’s not a minus. But is it really a brand new business that was formed? Maybe, maybe not. And that’s where you’d have to dive, going back to the whole data thing I talk about all the time. You’d have to have more data and find out exactly what’s going on because if somebody just formed another entity for whatever reason, sometimes it’s insurance purposes, by the way, that another entity can be formed. If that’s the only reason it was formed, it’s not a new entity. It’s an extension of a current entity. Again, I want to see more of the actual numbers behind this to see exactly what’s going on. But overall, I do think for Colorado, that’s a good sign that we do have some growth in that area, and we’re plus, not minus. Even with the minuses, we’re still plus. So that’s a good thing. All right, we’re going to talk to Scott Garlis here in just one moment when it comes to the market, the Fed, what they did today, and so on. So don’t go anywhere. Roof Savers of Colorado is next. Dave Hart, who wants to help you with all of your roofing needs, whether it’s commercial, whether it’s residential, he can extend the life of your roof. They’ve now teamed up on the RoofMax side of the fence with Mike Rowe from Dirty Jobs and have a great partnership with him. But anything you need when it comes to your roof, give Dave a call today, 303-710-6916.
SPEAKER 07 :
If your roof has sustained hail damage from past or recent storms, don’t wait to call. This damage can leave your home vulnerable to leaks and further damage, but we can be your solution. Hi, I’m Madison Hart. And I’m Elizabeth Hart. Here at Roof Savers Colorado, we provide full-service roofing solutions that cater to the needs of your home, finances, or business.
SPEAKER 08 :
Being a homeowner isn’t getting any cheaper or easier. Deductibles are skyrocketing and insurance coverage continues to decline. Now’s the time to get your roof the replacement it needs. Already filed a claim with your insurance? RoofSafers can use your insurance proceeds to replace your roof and give your home stronger protection from hail.
SPEAKER 07 :
With over 23 years of roofing experience, the Roof Savers team are ready to help. Call Roof Savers Colorado today at 303-710-6916 or go to RoofSaversCEO.com.
SPEAKER 08 :
That’s 303-710-6916 or go to RoofSaversCEO.com to schedule your free inspection and start saving your roof today.
SPEAKER 14 :
All right, Ridgeland Auto Brokers, looking for a new used car. They’ve got you covered, and that’s another area where no used cars haven’t crashed, nor are they going to. In fact, right now, given the fact that new car sales are off, used car sales will be off as well, meaning prices are going up, not down. Ridgeland can explain all of that to you. So if you’re looking for a new used car, do it sooner than later. Find Ridgeland at RidgelandAutoBrokers.com.
SPEAKER 12 :
Are you in the market for a reliable car, truck, or SUV that won’t break the bank? Does your vehicle need high-quality auto repair? Then look no further. Ridgeline Auto Brokers and Legacy Auto Repair specialize in quality used cars that cost between $15,000 and $25,000, making them a great option for first-time drivers or anyone looking for a great deal. At Ridgeline, we pride ourselves on providing a transparent and happy free car buying experience that’s why we never charge any dealer fees plus all of our vehicles are inspected by our team of ASE certified technicians you can trust that the car you’re buying is in excellent condition and remember we can also service your vehicle after the sale at Ridgeline we can take your current vehicle on trade and we also offer competitive financing options for vehicle purchases and also for vehicle repairs Ridgeline now has two locations, one in Boulder and now a second location in Fort Collins located at 1101 North College Avenue. Both locations offer full-service auto repair and a host of off-road accessories. Check out all their services at RidgelineAutobrokers.com. Ridgeline, the smart way to buy or service or accessorize your car, truck, or SUV.
SPEAKER 01 :
As independent brokers, GIA Insurance does not work for any insurance company. They can shop the market and find you the best premium for the coverage that you need. Call 303-423-0162, extension 100, or go online to e-gia.com.
SPEAKER 06 :
The best export we have is Common Sense. You’re listening to Rush to Reason.
SPEAKER 14 :
All right, Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. I always forget to mention, most of you have this pretty well dialed in, but the text line 307-282-22. You can always text us a question, 307-282-22. Scott Garlis, welcome, sir. How are you?
SPEAKER 04 :
Hey, John, I’m well. How are you?
SPEAKER 14 :
I’m doing very well. Glad to be back. Glad to talk to you. I miss talking to you.
SPEAKER 04 :
I miss talking to you as well.
SPEAKER 14 :
All right, so give us an update on the Fed meeting today.
SPEAKER 04 :
Yeah, yeah, sure. So, basically… To sum it up, it was the single most boring Federal Reserve meeting I’ve ever listened to or watched. And I know you find that hard to believe because most of them are pretty boring. But, I mean, basically what Powell said was, you know, we can’t go off of sour and consumer sentiment, meaning emotional gauges. We have to see hard data that tells us we have to do something. And contrary to all the stories about You know, all these cargo data is imploding and all these other things. He’s like, we’re not seeing prices take off, but we’re not seeing the job market really slow down, is what he said. And so he said, until we see that, it’s hard for us to really do anything else in the moment. We have to see it play out one way or the other.
SPEAKER 14 :
In other words, they can’t preemptively do something when the numbers don’t show it, is what he’s saying, right? Yeah.
SPEAKER 04 :
Oh, they could, but what he’s saying is right now we were right. Because he said, you know, we see the risks that inflation could go higher. It might not. And we see risks that the economy could slow down. It might not. Now, while you were out, we got a GDP number that showed negative 0.3% contraction. But when you go in and you pick those numbers apart, and Powell actually brought this up today, because of what imports did, that was a 4.8 percentage point drag on the overall number. So you could make an argument that we should have seen significant growth if it wasn’t for people scrambling to buy things ahead of, you know, the tariffs, pending tariffs. Yes. So he also pointed to that saying, well, you know, because of that, it’s hard for us to do anything because When we look at it that way and we take the tariff effect out, we still see decent economic growth. And so, you know, I think that’s that’s fair because contrary to I mean, the media hype that and they forgot all about the imports being a big drag. But the economy, it’s still all right, despite all the negative news we’re hearing.
SPEAKER 14 :
So despite what even a lot of folks on the other side of the aisle would say, that the sky is falling, and by the way, I do think the economy could be better than it is right now, and I do believe that it will get that way, although I don’t know how much better it will get without some interest rate lowering. We’ll talk about that when it comes to housing here. in a minute, Scott, because I do think there needs to be some rate cuts to get housing really back up and running, which I do think at this point in time is somewhat of a drag, and we’d really see some really strong numbers right now if that were the case, although then you’d have to say, okay, well, that means the feds have to raise rates, although you could have a strong economy and not necessarily have inflation, and maybe that’s what we should do next is we’ve had that under Trump. We’ve had a strong economy. We’ve had really good growth without inflation. Can we do that again?
SPEAKER 04 :
I totally think we can do that again. You know, and the other part of the equation that people are quickly forgetting about is just, you know, you see it, and I’m sure with you coaching businesses and helping people all the time, you know, the advancements that are being made in AI are definitely starting to show up on an efficiency standpoint on the business side. And, you know, that starts bringing down costs for businesses. You know, because people forget this quickly, too, but every time people get afraid of things slowing down, businesses employ more technology, they start investing in that to save themselves costs elsewhere. And it doesn’t put tons of people out of work. I mean, we’ve talked about this in the past. When the internet came about, people were like, oh my God, there’s going to be 10% unemployment. There’s not. New industries will form that help the economy become more efficient and work better. But that’s going to start showing up. And to answer your question, I think that is going to help drive more productivity, and less inflation.
SPEAKER 14 :
Agree, agree. And I think that’s where, you know, give it a little time, and I try to get people to kind of sit back for a minute and say, okay, just, you know, cool your jets, watch what’s going on, even people that get upset over. tariffs and things like that, it’s like, okay, time out, you know, kick back just for a minute, let things kind of run their course, the reality is, and I think even time is telling that, that you and I have been correct on this, you know, we are the world’s biggest customer, nobody buys near the amount of product that we do. I saw somebody today misquote something that said Germany had a GDP of $8 trillion. No, GDP is only about $4 trillion in Germany. They are a far cry, and they’re right after China. It’s us, China, Germany. They are a far cry from where we are at roughly $28 trillion a year, Scott. I hate to say this, but they don’t even put a dimple in what we do. So the reality is, and Andy, my cohort, and I talked about this yesterday a little bit, the reality is, Scott, that that China has really one basic customer, and that is the U.S. Yes, they can try to peddle their goods to other countries around the world, but the reality is there’s a lot of other countries that, frankly, don’t have either the wherewithal, the income, the desire. The reality is they are just not going to be in a position where they can buy the things from China that we as a country buy, meaning that without us, China doesn’t exist. I’m sorry to say, but they don’t.
SPEAKER 04 :
Yeah, I mean… I totally agree with that. The big thing is China took all this manufacturing business from countries in the West and it kind of weaponized it against them, and that’s part of the problem. And then the flip side of that, too, geez, like what we’re seeing, stuff I’m starting to read now, is that Chinese companies are dropping their prices so they can totally work around the tariffs.
SPEAKER 14 :
Right.
SPEAKER 04 :
And some of these manufacturers, at the same time, they’re telling companies in the United States, don’t worry about it. We’ll pick up all the tariff costs for you. So China is trying to do everything they can to work around it because they don’t want to lose that business.
SPEAKER 14 :
You’re proving the point of what I said a moment ago, that at the end of the day, China needs us far more than we need them. I keep reminding my listeners of that over and over and over again. Maybe it’s now finally starting – sink in Scott but the reality is they have to have us more than we have to have them because the reality is we can go to other countries now maybe there’s a few things that we have to absolutely get from China but I believe that number is far less than what even people on Wall Street would say it is Scott and I think you bring up some great points that’s one of the things that I keep trying to highlight which even on the tariffs alone the reality is, this is something the news media doesn’t tell you, the news media wants to paint a picture where tariffs on a $100 item are on that $100. No, the tariff is on the $10 that most likely that company is paying from China to export that good. They’re not paying it on the $100, and the news media will not tell you what I just said.
SPEAKER 04 :
Yeah, I mean, so I have this conversation with investment buddies all the time, like guys that are running funds, and their biggest frustration is exactly that right now. They’re like, you know, it’s hard to get the truth, and what we talk about is separating the signal from the noise, because there are so many people that, like CNN today, I’m just going to use this as an example, they are talking about plummeting cargoes coming into the West coast of America and shelves and stores are going to be without goods. And it’s going to be like COVID all over again. You know, I looked, I pulled up all the inbound cargo data for the port of LA and In two weeks’ time, it’s supposed to be up like 46% or 60% year over year.
SPEAKER 14 :
It’s funny you say that because last week coming back from Hawaii, we had to take a stop in Oakland, and Oakland’s not a huge port, but there’s container ships and stuff that come into those ports just like L.A. and so on. And as I’m flying over, I’m thinking to myself, geez, there’s sure a lot of container ships out there in the port getting ready to roll in. I thought tariffs were ending all of that.
SPEAKER 04 :
Totally, man. Yeah. I looked up Long Beach. So Long Beach and L.A. make up about 40% of all inbound traffic to the U.S. Right. And 40% of all imports, and it’s the shortest route from China to get from Shanghai to the U.S. And both of them are painting a similar picture with their traffic data. You know, okay, there’s a brief lull, and this is because this is how long it takes to play out from – from the original imposition of tariffs on Liberation Day. But toward the end of April, mid to late April, Trump had a meeting with the CEOs of Home Depot, Walmart, and Target. Well, within a couple of days, there were stories out of the Chinese media that Trump gave them the okay to go back and tell all these chips manufacturers to start sending their goods back. And it looks like the data’s already ready to rebound. In the next couple weeks, it’s going to pick way back up. I looked at the year-over-year numbers. They’re flat, even with the recent dip.
SPEAKER 14 :
It’s not as bad as the news media is painting it out to be, is the point.
SPEAKER 04 :
Not at all. They’re really painting a different picture than what I see in the raw data.
SPEAKER 14 :
Exactly. Well, and that’s where I spent the last 15 minutes, even last hour, part of that hour, talking about data, what it means, how to view it. really say what anybody wants it to say i always like like you i want to see what the raw data says i i want to extrapolate that because that’ll tell me exactly what the true picture is i don’t want to read data that cnn is putting out because by the way it could be completely false it’s and it’s a couple weeks old yeah thank you for that as well yes it could be correct data but from when
SPEAKER 04 :
Yes, and it makes a big difference.
SPEAKER 14 :
And the things that you and I are talking about right now, it makes a – well, it always makes a difference, but right now it makes a huge difference. Okay, so when it comes to even some of the other countries out there that are sort of, you know, balking at the tariffs, we’ve still got Canada kind of chirping, and the U.K. chirps here and there, and the reality is, you know, guys, you can chirp all you want, but I go back to my initial conversation a moment ago. We buy $28 trillion. That’s our GDP, so not buy, but we have a GDP that’s $28 trillion. UK, sorry, you’re not even $4 trillion. Canada, you’re below that. So the reality is at the end of the day, you guys can trip all you want, but I hate to say this, but you’re like a mosquito.
SPEAKER 04 :
Yeah, you know, the Canada stuff is interesting because of that primary that just took place. And Carney won, but he’s got a minority. If he forms a government, it will be a minority government. He won’t have a majority government. But, you know, after all the hard talk going into the campaign, he came here yesterday and met with Trump. And after the meeting, he said, well, you know… I’m doing I see this as my opportunity to repair the damage that was done by the prior prime minister. So that’s really different than the language he was using, saying I’m going to unite the world against Trump prior to the election. Good point. Yeah.
SPEAKER 14 :
Well, to me, that comes back down to this whole, you know, perspective of, hey, you know, do we really want to tick off our largest customer?
SPEAKER 04 :
No, no, and that’s exactly my point. It’s what you said, and that’s why he’s saying that. And then the other one was, you know, to the U.K. point, one of the U.K. ministers who’s dealing with this, these trade negotiations came out yesterday, late yesterday, and said we’re really close on a deal that’s going to involve some tariff quotas. And then you have… You know, India, I’ve read some stuff, too, out of some Indian newspapers and journals that India is really looking to supplant China as the supplier for the U.S. Interesting. Yes. And it’s just, you know, they have infrastructure. It still would have to be built up. But, you know, that would be, and I think China realizes this, and this is why you’ve seen the tone start to change really quickly out of China. And China is more interested in having talks now than they were just a couple of weeks ago. Interesting.
SPEAKER 14 :
Here’s a question. I wanted to know if there’s any scuttlebutt going on because one of the things that I feel like needs to be communicated coming out of the White House as well in conjunction with some of the tariff talk is – and I get it. It’s a federal thing on their end. Tariffs are and so on. I also know states have rights and so on. But you have to wonder, Scott, at some point, when does – somebody like Trump come along to some of the states, probably the red states, and say, listen, guys, we want to attract more business. We want to get these factories built. We want some things back here on the homeland. We know it’s probably not going to happen in the blue states. So what can you guys do in the red states to fast-track some of the projects that I want to see come back to America? What incentives and things like that can we give these companies? And I mean incentives as in, hey, if you want to build a factory, we’ll figure out a way to fast-track this, get you through all of the studies and everything. and all the other things that normally would take three to five years we’re going to fast track that and let you put a hole in the ground within six to eight months uh i wouldn’t be surprised if those conversations have already been had okay all right perfect because they need to scott i mean that’s the kind of stuff if you’re going to get stuff back here get things rolling along you got to fast track it and he has said he wants to fast track everything he wants to get it going right now because
SPEAKER 04 :
You need to have those projects going before he gets out of office because if he waits until after, then you could have somebody else come in and be like, well, not so fast. Good point. So if you think politically, yeah, you want to get them going as soon as possible. Then it’s a lot harder to say no.
SPEAKER 14 :
Okay. Stuff to invest in where people are looking at, hey, what should I do? I know gold is at an all-time high. What should people be looking at right now if they want kind of a safe haven while they wait some of this stuff out?
SPEAKER 04 :
yeah again i mean i i think u.s treasuries are a great spot to be invested in um you know spts is a uh it’s a one to three year treasury etf i believe it has about a 4.2 percent yield Look, I think the Fed is going to be cutting in the back half of this year, especially if we start to see some deals in this next quarter that happen with other countries. And, you know, the tariffs don’t look as bad as what was originally suggested to get people to the table. So inflation doesn’t really pick up. You know, people are still forgetting that oil piece of the puzzle we’ve talked about and oil prices having dropped so much. Inflation continues to ease like it has been. The Fed starts cutting three times in the back half of the year, maybe even four. Yields are going to drop and bond prices are going to go up. So I think that’s a really good place to sit things out. I think we’ve seen the lows for the year in the stock market. I would be buying the S&P 500 ETF, SPY.
SPEAKER 14 :
i think that’s that’s another great place where you could you could make some decent upside okay now i want to end with the whole oil thing because there were some folks out even on social media mr global who’s a guy that i actually follow although he’s a complete lefty he does pretty good job most of the time when it comes to oil and how it works in the infrastructure and so on although sunday he predicted a huge crash across the board on all markets when it came to oil. People would be losing their jobs. Executives would be losing their jobs. Of course, none of that happened. He was way off. And his reasoning for that was because of OPEC deciding to put 400,000 more barrels per day into production. And as I read through that, I’m thinking, okay, wait a minute. We, the United States of America, we consume a little over 20 million barrels a day. So just us alone, not the entire world, Scott, but just us at 20 million, that 400K, again, it’s sort of like Canada whining about tariffs. At the end of the day, it’s doing nothing.
SPEAKER 04 :
Yes, that’s right. It’s really doing nothing at all.
SPEAKER 14 :
And yet he’s predicting a huge crash. Now, oil is down, but it was headed down anyways. And I think one of the things you and I have talked about is we knew that it would. We knew that a Trump presidency, you’re going to push production up. OPEC’s going to jump on. They don’t want to be left out in the cold. They’re going to push some production up. Yes, it’s going to drive prices down. We need them to sit about where they are right now, by the way. Much lower, it starts hurting our companies. So, we really need them to sit here in this $60 a barrel range. Eventually, you’re going to see the price of gasoline come down to the low twos at that range. So, give it some time. All of that stuff will work out. And to your point, enabling the economy to take off without inflation.
SPEAKER 04 :
Yeah, you know, it’s funny. I’m just now starting to see some different places on Wall Street start to pick up and run with this. And they’re like, wait a second, this is actually really good from an inflation standpoint. It’s like, yeah, no kidding.
SPEAKER 14 :
Yeah, thank you. You and I have been talking about this for a while. They should listen to us on Wednesdays at 5.30 Mountain Time. That’s right. Scott, appreciate you. How do folks find you?
SPEAKER 04 :
Yeah, sure. You can go LinkedIn, Twitter, or on Substack, see Scott Garlis.
SPEAKER 14 :
You’re the man, Scott. Appreciate your time always. John, thanks so much for your time.
SPEAKER 04 :
You betcha, man.
SPEAKER 14 :
You bet. Have a great night. And I do appreciate Scott. He’s got a great outlook, and you guys can hear that and follow him. He’s always got great tips on things that you should do. On the same token, if you want to talk to somebody face-to-face and you don’t have the ability to do some of those things, you’re not worried about investing on your own, you want somebody to help you with all of that, that is where Al Smith from Golden Eagle comes into play. Talk to Al today. Find him at klzradio.com.
SPEAKER 15 :
Golden Eagle Financial will help ensure that your nest egg will last. Advances in medical science have helped Americans live longer, which is wonderful. But where retirement advisors used to plan for about 15 years of income, today retirees live much longer. That means you’re going to need more money for more years of living an amazing retirement. Sure, there are programs to bridge that gap, like Medicare and Social Security, but that’s not the fulfilling retirement that you’ve always dreamed of. Al Smith and Golden Eagle Financial use financial strategies with guaranteed lifetime income to stretch your principal to last longer so you can do more of the things you want to do in retirement. like vacations with your kids, helping others, or giving to your favorite charities. People like you who are well-prepared will have a more fulfilling, stress-free retirement. It’s easy to get started. Just go to klzradio.com and click on the advertiser’s link to schedule a free consultation. Investment advisory services offered through Brookstone Capital Investment LLC, a registered investment advisor. BCM and Golden Eagle Financial Limited are independent of each other. Insurance products and services are not offered through BCM, but are offered and sold through individually licensed and appointed agents.
SPEAKER 14 :
All right, Cub Creek Heating and Air Conditioning. And if you’ve got any problems at all with your air conditioning unit or your furnace, they’ve got some great deals on financing as well for either one of those, by the way. Give them a call today. Find them at klzradio.com.
SPEAKER 02 :
KLZ listeners are financially wise, and that’s why so many of you choose Cub Creek for your furnace and AC repair or replacement. Rheem Certified Cub Creek Heating and AC understand rebates and incentives, and they give you the best price up front, working within your budget to get you the most HVAC for your dollar. The price of equipment has been steadily rising, and so have incentives for the more expensive systems. Cub Creek gets to know your needs so they can give you options that are right for you, not just the option that pays them the most. Sometimes rebates are not the right answer. Maybe you don’t need the most expensive model. You know you can rely on Cub Creek to provide a comprehensive quote, and they will never pressure you to sign today. They’ll give you time to consider your options without raising the price on you. Learn more about the honest and fair techs at Cub Creek Heating and AC on the klzradio.com advertisers page.
SPEAKER 14 :
All right, Veteran Windows and Doors, if you’re looking for the right windows and doors to fit your home and your lifestyle, look no further than Veteran Windows and Doors. Talk to Dave today. He can explain how all of that works and customize whatever is needed for your home, which, by the way, most don’t do. They just give you a blanket. Here’s what you need. Here’s how many windows you need. Here’s your price. Do the UV test, the whole nine yards. It’s a big gimmick, by the way, when it comes to windows and doors. Eliminate all of that. Talk to Dave today. Go to klzradio.com.
SPEAKER 13 :
Veteran Windows and Doors knows that other companies only care about getting the sale. Those companies sell you on emotions, pressuring you to sign today to get the best price, but they don’t even know about the critical energy codes and ratings of the windows. Dave Bancroft, owner of Veteran Windows and Doors, guarantees he will get you the right windows and doors designed specifically for your home. without the ridiculous sales tactics and needless pressuring. Dave is passionate about educating you so that you can make an informed decision on your timeline and wants to protect you as a consumer. And Dave has seen other companies’ prices appear cheaper initially, but once the door you bought doesn’t fit or it’s the wrong door, they must structurally change the door frame to create the opening. You’ve lost thousands of dollars. Don’t deal with just a sales rep. Work with Dave. For the month of April, when you buy up to three windows, enjoy 35% off. Buy four or more windows, you’ll receive 40% off, all with free installation. Just go to klzradio.com.
SPEAKER 06 :
This isn’t Rage Radio. This is Real Relatable Radio. Back to Rush to Reason.
SPEAKER 14 :
All right, one thing that I was going to talk to Scott about that was in my notes that we just didn’t get enough time to do, I’ve only got about a minute or so left of today’s program, is Wall Street Journal article from a few days ago talking about how bad is China’s economy. And the answer is the data needed to answer this is vanishing. In other words, Beijing has stopped publishing hundreds, not just a few, hundreds of statistics, making it harder to know exactly what’s going on in the country. Yeah, because China will hide that stuff. They don’t want anybody to realize exactly how bad things are, especially now, given the circumstances we’ve got with Donald Trump tariffs and so on. Yeah, they’re not going to let anybody know exactly how bad things are. The only way you’re going to know that is if you’ve got any kind of an inside track on individuals that actually live there that could push out information on how are some of the companies that are there doing? What are they doing in regards to tariffs? Are they still producing? Have they had huge layoffs, which they have? how much money is being injected into the country, into the currency, things along those lines. So for those of you, if any of you have any insight to that or know anybody that actually is in or has relatives in China, I would love to know some of those things because the reality is you’re not going to hear that from the press. The press is on China’s side, by the way, something I don’t talk much about. But yes, our press, our mainstream media, they are in the back pocket of China. Why? Because they’re lefties. They’re Marxists. They’re communists. What do you think China is? And it’s one of those things where I don’t think we on our side talk about this enough. China is communist. Total communism through and through. Their people are subjects, not citizens. They will walk all over, spit their people out in a heartbeat. They don’t care. They are useful idiots at the end of the day. That’s all the leaders of China look at when it comes to their people, and they literally have no care or concern for them in any way, shape, or form. I don’t care what anybody says, because it’s the truth. The left, by the way, will never tell you what I just said. They will glamorize China, make it seem great, make it seem wonderful, and we’re the bad guys by doing these tariffs all of a sudden, and it’s not China. You’ll never hear what I just said out of the mainstream media because they’re just a bunch of useful idiots from China, by the way. They are on their side. So we’ll talk more about that tomorrow. Have a great night, guys, by the way. Up next, it’s the National Crawford Roundtable with myself and Neil Boron. Enjoy your night. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560.
