John Rush takes the gloves off in this unapologetic third hour of Rush to Reason, blasting the performative marketing of Pride Month and saluting Target’s pivot back to patriotism. He goes deep on the Boulder firebomb attack, questioning the timing and sanity of the county commissioners’ public statement, and exposing the hypocrisy of leftist identity politics. From the absurdity of activist judges to the dangers of radicalization and open borders, John lays it all bare. Plus, updates on the Mike Lindell trial, the ridiculous “No Kings” protests planned for June 14th, and a fiery takedown of Nextdoor Karens. If
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All right, hour number three, Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. We talk a little bit about this on the podcast that you’ll hear tonight at 6, but Charlie and I were just talking through the break that several retailers, Target being one of them, I haven’t said much about it, but June is whatever, Pride Month, which I hate. I just hate dedicated months period, by the way. Whether it’s Pride Month, whether it’s this month, that month, honestly, I don’t care because to me it’s all stupid. And most of it marketing, by the way. It’s sort of like, and I shouldn’t say this, but Valentine’s Day, Mother’s Day, Father’s Day, those are all, in my opinion, just holidays meant to spend money. That’s pretty much all they are. And these months that they have, it’s the same situation. They’re really there just to bring awareness to something and get you to spend money. So June is Pride Month. Well, it used to be a big deal for a lot of retailers, Target being one of them. In fact, in the past, Target did everything from having the kids’ tuckable swimsuits and this, that, and the other, a bunch of nonsense, by the way. And they had so much backlash that this year, And I’ve seen pictures, and I’ve not verified this, but I’ve seen enough pictures, and I believe these to be true, that if you go to a Target right now, you won’t see the typical LGBTQ rainbow, all that nonsense. I think it’s all USA stuff. They’ve literally changed the theme to being USA-friendly, not LGBTQ-friendly. And hats off to them. In fact, they’re starting to understand their market and realizing that most people, including those that are gay, don’t care about all of that. They just want to go live their life, buy stuff, and move on. So congratulations, Target. I’m glad you did that. Long overdue. Now, maybe, and it is, I was going to say maybe that will wear off onto some of the other companies, which it is, by the way. You can even look at some of the logos that typically during Pride Month change. There’s a lot of them that aren’t. which they shouldn’t be. Know your market. Know who you’re selling to. Know who you’re potentially offending. And putting out USA stuff in the front of the store, and the way I look at that is, if that offends somebody, shop somewhere else then. That’s my feeling. You’re in America. If you don’t like America, you don’t like the flag, you don’t like the red, white, and blue, then go back to wherever you came from. And if you don’t like it here, then get a one-way ticket somewhere else. You live in America. If you don’t like it, leave. That’s my feeling on it. You guys all know me. I don’t mince any words along those lines whatsoever. If you don’t like America, leave. It’s as simple as that. In fact, I’ll put this out. If you don’t like America, I will buy you the one-way ticket. One way. You’re going to sign a contract. You’re not coming back. I’ll buy you the one-way ticket. See you. Bye. Leave. I don’t want to see you. I don’t want you here. And frankly, neither does anybody else. We talked about that in health and wellness on negativity of people and so on. If you’re that negative against this country, leave. We don’t need you. Now, I’m all for free speech and having the rights to speak your mind and say what you want and so on. But on the same token, if you don’t like it here, then go. Go somewhere else. All these Hollywood stars that threatened to leave if Trump became president, it looks like they’re still here. There’s a few that have left. I wish more would. Be fine by me. I think the ones that have are probably miserable wherever they’re at because it’s not America. It’s still the best place on the planet to live, bar none. There is no other place that’s as good as what we have here, in my opinion. Period. Period. Somebody said, too, that the Boulder County Commissioners, I was talking about those last hour, appear to be Jewish names by heritage. Yeah, honestly, I don’t know. I don’t know how you would know that for positive. You would have to ask each one individually. From looking at their pictures, yeah, it could be married names. I’m telling you, by looking at the pictures, probably not. Maybe one of them might be, but I don’t think the other two are. I could be wrong. Pictures are not always correct. Yeah, could be they married into the family and so on. I will tell you that Marta, highly doubtful that she is Jewish. I’m looking at her right now in her picture, probably Hispanic from looking at her picture. I don’t think she is Jewish. The other two maybe could be. I don’t know. Again, I don’t know their heritage. Could be that they married in. And again, I don’t have any idea. Well, it’s ironic that, you know, Charlie’s saying it’s ironic. It’s ironic that the particular individual that was attacking this particular march on Sunday was most likely attacking, I bet I’m not far off on this, probably 80 to 90 percent liberals. Highly doubtful that they were conservatives marching. I know Boulder. I know the area. Again, I did business there, folks, for decades. Decades upon decades, I did business there. Still do in some ways. But on the retail end of things, did business there for 40-plus years. And I will tell you that highly unlikely— that those particular Jewish supporters that were gathered to do that march, highly doubtful that if any of them were conservative, I would be shocked. I would be shocked. And yet, this particular gentleman did what he did. That’s where this statement coming out from these county commissioners is just nuts. It’s dead wrong. They’re looney tunes. And they are. And I would hope that it was a unanimous thing to put this out on the same token. If it is, shame on the three of them, because same token, if it was one of them putting it out without the unanimous decision from the other two to put that out, that’s wrong in and of itself. We’ll know more about all of this. And I will say this as well. I should have made this known last hour. I personally… have not verified that this came from all three of them. This is on social media. It looks like a statement. It looks accurate. I don’t know for positive if, in fact, it’s not on their website, for example. So I can’t verify. I have not done all the research to go back. It’s been reposted numerous times. And I would think, though, that had it been wrong… Typically, when things are wrong, you see comments that, yeah, they didn’t say this, no, they didn’t post this, so on and so forth. I haven’t seen any contradictions to this statement from anyone on their side of the aisle. Let me just say it that way. Is it possible they didn’t say this? I suppose it’s possible, only I’m going to just say this, doubtful. Does this fit something that the commissioners of Boulder County would say, knowing where they are coming from on most things, because it’s very liberal? It would make sense. It would make sense. So I’ll do more research and we’ll find out. And thank you for noting that the names themselves. may be Jewish, but I can tell you from looking at them, highly doubtful that all three of them are, but it doesn’t matter. Bottom line, if they’re making that statement collectively, and again, I don’t know this for positive, probably should make an inquiry to find out. I’ll do my very best to do so. Although you would think as much as this is on social media, somebody in their media department would be contradicting that if in fact that were not true. So I’ll just leave it at that. So Flesh Law coming up next. Speaking of the legal end of things, civil, criminal, you name it, Kevin is there to help you, represent you. 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SPEAKER 16 :
Really quick also, I did a search on the name of that particular county commissioner. It’s L-O-A-C-H-A-M-I-N. That is not a Jewish name, by the way. And I do know for a fact, because I watched her campaign for that particular race, I just was reminded of that a moment ago. She’s a Latina and sort of highlighted that running for the Longmont District Council. As far as county commissioners in Boulder go, it doesn’t matter, by the way. And what I did, this is coming from AI, from a Google search. AI will tell you that, yes, in fact, they put this statement out. Now, that’s AI. Don’t know if that’s true or not. Typically, though, AI is looking at all kinds of things, not just social media. They’re looking at what, you know, it goes out and looks at websites, other sources, and so on. Not that it’s 100% factual. Because it’s not. It can make mistakes as well. And like I said earlier, it would not surprise me that the commissioners of Boulder County put that statement out. I think that’s – and again – Not that I want it to be true because I don’t. I would hope that they would have more more couth than that to put that out so soon, because I think that they’re wrong. Not only is the statement wrong in all the things it talks about with the Trump administration and so on. It’s just wrong timing, period. Charlie, that’s probably the biggest thing I would look at there. And if I was advising them, even on the media side. Yeah. Too much too soon, folks. If you want to say that next week, you’ll be our guest. But too much too soon, you’re two days, literally, because this statement probably came out last night, you’re two days away from the event that happened, too much too soon. And I understand nobody has died, thankfully. But there are some severe injuries with some people. Some had minor injuries of the eight. I think there was 10 actually now they’re coming out and saying that had some injuries with all of that. But I believe, Charlie, there’s two that I think are heavily, will be heavily affected, burned, I guess is what I’m trying to say. You can look at some of the video and such and see some of that. And by the way, if you haven’t seen some of the video, I wouldn’t recommend watching it. It’s one of those things where there’s different angles of it. It’s like, yeah, I don’t know that. I don’t need to see that twice. Watching people on fire is something I don’t need to see. Sorry, I don’t need to see that. And this guy that did this is an absolute nut job. Here’s my fear. Will he get off on some sort of a lesser plea on some sort of an insanity thing because he’s a nut job? Don’t know. Don’t know. That one, unfortunately, much like a lot of other trials, you won’t know for, Charlie, we won’t be talking about this until 2027 at the soonest probably. And I don’t think I’m wrong in saying that. By the time they get through everything, it’ll be a couple of years down the road before you’ll find out any more about all of this. So, yeah. don’t be expecting anything any sooner along those lines folks in this particular regard because that’s just that’s how the wheels of motion i mean look at the the vert or the um the sentencing that i talked about yesterday with the young lady that was killed up on indiana with the rock throwing incident the boulder throwing incident i should say um yeah um Two years, literally it was two years almost to the day, about a month or so off of two years that those young men were sentenced. And as I talked about that with Andy yesterday, just not a good thing. Okay, one thing I haven’t talked much about, and I’m not going to spend a lot of time here, but some of you may or may not know that Mike Lindell, the MyPillow CEO, he is in town right now. There is a trial going on. There was a lawsuit, a defamation lawsuit that was put out by the used-to-be owner of Dominion, no longer a part of that, Eric Coomer. He is no longer a part of that, but he sued Lindell over defamation. And this particular case… could very well set the tone for some other lawsuits. These are civil. Some other lawsuits that are also going against other individuals. Eric is sue-happy. That I can say. I’m not defaming him and saying that he is. He’s a sue-happy individual. He has sued numerous individuals along the lines of things that were put out either on radio, they were put out on television, Even Fox, I think, settled out of court, if I’m not mistaken, Charlie. So there’s a lot of people that he has sued. Some people paid out in advance, not wanting to go to court. In this particular case, Mike decided to go all the way to court. Personally, I think that’s because Mike doesn’t have the resources that Fox has. Even though he owns MyPillow, he’s not a super rich man and doesn’t have the ability to just write a check. and clear this and move on. And I don’t think he would have done that even if he had been. He’s going to run this thing all the way through because he doesn’t feel like he’s done anything wrong. Now, saying all that to say this, Mike, if you’re listening. You need to learn when to not talk. I’m just going to say it straight up, guys. The judge is even scolding him over some things he’s doing on his frank speech media outlet and so on. And while the trial itself is going on, my advice, Mike, be quiet. Stop talking. You’ll be better off in the end to just stop talking. If you want to talk once everything’s over and you want to give everything that you’re thinking and what’s on your heart and your mind and so on, again, free speech, be my guest, do whatever you want to. But for right now, zip it. Zip it. You’ll be a lot better off when it’s all said and done. And I’m on Mike’s side. I want Mike to win. But Mike needs to be really careful because the odds are not stacked in his favor. I’m just going to tell you that straight up, folks. They’re not stacked in his favor. So I’m not, again, I’m not going to take sides one way or the other because I don’t know what the outcome is going to be. I like Mike. I think Mike’s a patriot. I think Mike at times gets caught up in some things that I wouldn’t get caught up in. I’ll just say it that way. Me personally, I would not do. But that’s me and I’m not Mike. Mike’s a grown man and he can do whatever he wants to do. So I’ll leave it at that. Bottom line, though, if I were Mike, I would not be talking. I think I would be a lot more quiet about things and just let things roll, mainly because, as I said earlier, this will likely be a case where there could very well be some precedents set. in what happens moving forward in some of the other lawsuits that are out there. And I’ll tell you straight up, is Eric a good guy? No, Eric’s not a good guy. And I’m not defaming him. He’s just not a good guy. And I can say that. There’s nothing defaming about that. He’s just not a good guy. He’s got a vendetta against certain individuals, and he’s coming through on that vendetta. So, Eric, be careful what you wish for also. I will say that. Be careful what you wish for. And I’ll say that to a lot of different individuals that go down this this path of going to court over certain things. Be careful what you wish for when it’s all said and done, because it may not be exactly what you want. So, again, I’ll leave that one alone. We’ll see how things go. We’ll keep tracking it. But that was one of the things that I noticed that had come out of that particular trial. The judge issuing an order or sorry, issuing a recommendation that he quit trial. doing some of the things that he’s doing on social media and other places. And I just know from experience along those lines that when you’re in court, you’re best off just not saying anything. And I would venture to guess that his attorneys are telling him the same thing. Okay, something that my wife sent me. I’m not on Nextdoor. I can’t stand Nextdoor. And by the way, nothing against the folks that run Nextdoor. I can’t stand the people on Nextdoor. So for those of you that don’t know what it is, and I’m not on it, so I’m going to have to just describe it best I can because I haven’t been around it for a long time. Nextdoor is sort of a social media app for neighbors in particular areas, and I think you have to be approved by your address to even join that particular section of Nextdoor. As a business, I think you can advertise and do some things that way, and I don’t know that you necessarily have to belong to the neighborhood to be a business and advertise, but to communicate back and forth with neighbors, you have to be a part of that particular neighborhood group of Nextdoor. So I’m not. I was for a very short time, and I’ll just tell you straight up, nut jobs. Sorry, nut jobs on Nextdoor. Bunch of whiny Karen Kevins. They’re whiny. I can’t do it. I know Charlie follows some of it. I can’t. And they’re nosy. Thank you, Charlie. They are nosy. I mean, they are the type that a police car just drove down the street. I wonder what that’s all about. Who cares? So a police car drove by. No one cares. I got better things to do. So I can’t do next door. I’m doing good to even do a little bit of stuff on Facebook and some of the forums and so on. I’m doing well to do that. Next door I cannot do. So my wife does. She can tolerate that stuff. I can’t. It drives me crazy. I just look at it and think, people, you cannot be this stupid, can you? But they are. So this was something she sent me. She copied and pasted the screenshots of a next door thing going on in Golden. The No Kings Golden, whatever you want to call it, gathering. And those of you that don’t know what no kings is, it’s against Trump. They think Trump is a king. They will spew things out like, you know, because of Doge and the discontinuation of USAID, you know, 300,000 kids are now dead. And they spew all this garbage out, which, by the way, none of it’s true. Can’t be proven. But that’s the kind of garbage they put out to their quote-unquote supporters and followers. So there was a guy on Nextdoor in that particular area talking about, hey, make sure you gather. I’m not normally somebody that would post anything political, but you need to come to the No Kings Gathering, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Do you realize that this many people have—I mean, it’s just a bunch of utter nonsense. And again, if I was a part of Nextdoor, I’d have to respond. That’s why I’m not part of Nextdoor, because I couldn’t do it. I would have to respond. Then I’m in this battle back and forth. Your keyboard, blah, blah, blah. I can’t do it. I do this instead. And point being, there’s going to be a lot of these, quote, unquote, no Kings mass protests. They’re happening June 14th. Now, here’s where I’m coming at this, because you’re going to see a lot of these. and some of our side is going to look at these and you’re just going to shake your head. And what I don’t want happening, because it would look bad for our side, is don’t interfere with these knuckleheads. Don’t say anything to them. Don’t try to debate them when they’re doing these things. I get it, there’s free speech and all that, but you’re better off just letting these knuckleheads be knuckleheads and let them do their thing and no confrontation, nothing along those lines. Just let them do what they’re going to do and leave them alone. That’s my point in talking about this is our side needs to just ignore it and move on. The more of a ruckus we make by being at these events to counter it, so doing like a counter protest to the protest, which sometimes our side will do, don’t in this case. That’s my advice. We’re not going to accomplish. I can tell you right now, you’re not going to change any of these people’s minds. No more than I’m going to go to Boulder and change the minds of these three county commissioners on the statement they put out about the Department of Homeland Security and so on. You’re not going to change their mind. I’m not going to change the No Kings mass protest minds. These people are absolute knuckleheads. You’re not going to change their mind. There’s no sense having a conversation with them. So my advice on June 14th, which is not this coming Saturday, but next. Am I right on that, Charlie? Is it next Saturday? I’m going to make sure I got my calendar right. Yes. Not this Saturday, but next, the 14th. You’ll see some of these going on. Most of them are going to be late in the afternoon. Three to five is this one. And they’ll be all around the country. We’ve already seen these happen. You’re going to see them again now. But again, my advice is let them be. Let them do their thing. Leave them alone. Most of them will have minimal attendance at best. Some will have more than others depending upon what part of town they’re in. But I would just let it roll, don’t worry about it, and move on. Because the more we… You know, fan the flame of the fire, I should say, the worse it’s going to get. Just leave it alone. Let it be. These people are knuckleheads. They believe things that aren’t even true. So just let them do their thing. I mean, anybody thinking for one second that Donald Trump is somehow a king, given what these activist judges are doing against him, they’re another moron. Literally, they’re an utter moron. They’re not even looking at things through any kind of a rational lens. Otherwise, they wouldn’t be having these protests because Trump’s about as far from a king as you’re going to get. The one that was closer to the king who was being propped up as king was Joe Biden. So if you really want to get down to it in the auto pan and the signatures and all the different things that happened, if you really want to talk about somebody being king, that was Joe Biden. Far, far, far cry from what Donald Trump’s doing right now. And how in the world anybody could be mad at Doge and cutting wasteful spending, especially USAID, tells you exactly where they’re coming from. USAID has been proven to be nothing more than a big, huge money laundering scheme, most of it on the Democrat side. Yes, there are some Republicans involved as well, but mostly on the Democrat side. All right, Roof Savers of Colorado coming up next as I look out right now, raining to the west, maybe coming even through Aurora. You may have some storm damage from the past. If you do, please give Dave Hart a call. Don’t put that off any longer. 303-710-6916.
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SPEAKER 01 :
The best export we have is Common Sense. You’re listening to Rush to Reason.
SPEAKER 16 :
All right, we are back. Thank you, by the way, for all of the text messages. A lot of you saying my explanation of Nextdoor was spot on, that I explained it full well, and thank you for that. Some of you are very funny, by the way. I appreciate that as well. You make me chuckle. Yeah, I’m sorry. I know some of you even said that there’s other areas where, you know, some of the mountain towns and so on. It’s not so bad. I maybe it’s not. And, you know, you’re probably right. But I can’t do it. I’m sorry. I just I can’t. I guess I’m getting to that age where I just can’t stand a lot of the stupidity that is there. And I’m sorry to say that. But Scott Garlis joining us now. Scott, welcome. What’s up, sir? Hey, John, not much. How are you doing, man? I am doing very well. Other than I sent you an article, and I haven’t talked about this on air, but I sent you an article talking about how it really has come down to the fact that the Fed is most likely not going to move on interest rates. Trump and Besant know that. They are going to do their very best to work around the Fed. And I think Jerome Powell is making a huge mistake. And frankly, Scott, and I know he’s not looking at it this way, but I think it’s really going to affect him financially. in the history books on down the road as being somebody that was too late to the game raising and too late to the game lowering?
SPEAKER 09 :
Yeah, it’s certainly possible. And I know we’ve talked about this for a bit. Hey, look, inflation’s coming in. The Fed should be making some sort of moves because they had said prior to the election, when the inflation numbers get close to our target, we’ll start cutting rates more before we get there. Now, You could say, well, they cut by 100 basis points in the fall, but inflation’s much lower now. We’re down to 2.1% on PCE. For anybody listening, that’s personal consumption expenditures, and that’s the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Their target’s 2%. They’re pretty much there.
SPEAKER 16 :
And the other thing, too, that’s starting to come out, Scott, and I don’t think this is wrong. I don’t think the observations are off. They cut rates under one administration, but they won’t do it in the next. That does not look good for the Fed right now, being that’s the case.
SPEAKER 09 :
No, it definitely doesn’t. As much as Powell says he’s apolitical, it certainly seems very political. Now, the only thing I will say is people were – flipping out on Powell for cutting race ahead of the election, saying that he was being anti-democratic and just.
SPEAKER 16 :
I think what he, and this is my opinion, I think Jerome Powell was doing, again, he says he’s not political, and what I was flipping out about is he lowers him, again, under one administration, I think trying to jumpstart the economy to try to help the Democrats out as much as he could, and the reality is it didn’t really change anything at the end of the day, because the economy didn’t do any better from that, but now he’s gone completely the other way. It’s become a… a contest between him and Trump, and Jerome Powell is just showing his true colors as to his dislike for Trump.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yeah, I would agree with that. I think it’s become a bit childish on Powell’s part. It’s almost like Powell has said, I’m not going to have anybody tell me what to do.
SPEAKER 16 :
I’m not giving in.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yeah, and instead of looking beyond what Trump’s saying and just being like, look, you know, whatever. I’ve got to do what’s right for the economy. I feel like he’s digging in his heels. I mean, you know, a couple of things we’ve been talking about. We’ve been talking about how gas prices keep coming in because there’s more oil being pumped. The Saudis, OPEC just upped the amount of oil they’re producing. They’re going to by 410,000 barrels a day. And now they’re talking about getting even more aggressive. That’s keeping a lid on inflation. And then another thing that’s weighing is because the Fed won’t cut rates, you’re looking at, you know, to borrow money to buy a house, conventional 30-year mortgage, is around 7% right now.
SPEAKER 16 :
Yeah, and that’s the part that really I think the Fed is – make sure I use my words correctly here, Scott – The Fed is going to pay the piper on that because people that have mortgages, that want to move, that want to do something different, they’d like to change schools, they want to do this, they want to do that, but they won’t because of what you’re talking about. And they know, whether they understand every little idiosyncrasy as to the economy and how interest rate works or not, all they know is they can look at the Fed, they can look at the announcements, they can look at the fact that even the news media talking about how they’re going to go ahead and just leave rates alone Even though short-term rates aren’t a direct relation to 30-year mortgages, the average person, Scott, has no idea how that works. All they see are the headlines, and I do believe that that is going to come back to bite the Fed because people right now that would love to move and would love to do something different with their current mortgage but can’t because of what we’re talking about, they are going to be mad at the Fed, and I believe it’s getting worse.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yeah, and so… A way to look at that, too, is if you look at the month’s supply of existing homes and what that would be is how long it would take to completely sell out of all inventory. I want to say it’s 4.4 months right now as of April.
SPEAKER 16 :
I think that sounds about right. Yeah, I was looking at some of those numbers today. We’re actually, at least in Colorado, I don’t know what it’s like across the country, but we’re getting up to pre-pandemic levels of houses in stock. Not that it’s a true buyer’s market, but it’s more in favor of buyers than sellers. It doesn’t mean that people are slashing prices or anything like that. Things are adjusting, of course, and coming back around. And again, a lot of that is due to the fact of what we’re talking about with interest rates.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yeah. And it’s so that existing homes number, it is the highest we’ve seen in the last five years. And it is, you know, the average prior to the pandemic to your point was like four to six months. So it’s back in that average range. Um, but the other thing is if you look at new homes, they’re up to 8.1 months. The typical month supply of new homes is five to six.
SPEAKER 16 :
Okay.
SPEAKER 09 :
So it’s growing problem there. Yeah. Yeah. It’s growing. It’s gone past normal. You know, existing homes are growing. Existing home sales are the lowest we’ve seen in a while. You know, they’re about running at around $4 million. So it’s just, you know, that starts to add up. And so what we’re seeing there, too, is price growth is really starting to compress. I also looked at the listing price per square foot nationally. It’s only up 1.3% versus this time a year ago. And that sales price is up 1.8 percent versus this time a year ago. So if we take that and then we take gas prices, the average price of gasoline for the month of May and the month of April was down 12 percent versus the same time last year. And this is when you’re supposed to be seeing the uptick. That’s right.
SPEAKER 16 :
That’s right.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yes. And so if you put those two numbers together in terms of CPI inflation, that’s about 40 to 45 percent of inflation. So think about that for a second. 40% to 45% of inflation is seeing little growth to contracting.
SPEAKER 16 :
Got it.
SPEAKER 09 :
So when we saw that, we haven’t seen the May inflation numbers yet, but when we saw the April inflation numbers, I just told you they’re 2.1%, that 12% contraction in gas prices was part of that.
SPEAKER 16 :
Yeah, exactly.
SPEAKER 09 :
And now we saw it again in May, that’s only going to have the same effect. So to exactly what you’re saying… The Fed, now, to think about it, for people to think about this and what kind of rate cut cushion the Federal Reserve has, you think about the effective federal funds rate, which is in between, they have a target range. It’s about 4.4% right now. So to look at real interest rates, you take that number and subtract inflation, which is 2.1%. And that means the real rate of interest is 2.3%. Okay. Okay. So if we go back and look at how the Fed manages that number historically since the year 2000 is what I ran the numbers back to, negative 0.1%.
SPEAKER 16 :
Got it.
SPEAKER 09 :
That’s a major league.
SPEAKER 16 :
Right.
SPEAKER 09 :
That’s 240 basis points or 2.5% almost of rate cut cushion.
SPEAKER 16 :
Meaning they could come down a full percentage point and be just fine.
SPEAKER 09 :
Completely.
SPEAKER 16 :
Yeah. And that, in turn, typically, and we’ll talk about what Ascent’s doing, but typically, Scott, that 1% rate cut would bring mortgage rates probably down into the high fives, 6% range, something along those lines.
SPEAKER 09 :
It would make a massive difference.
SPEAKER 16 :
Yep, huge.
SPEAKER 09 :
I mean, and the other thing you’re seeing going on right now, too, is the employment numbers we’ve been seeing in the last couple months. they’re really starting to slow. And part of that is, you know, companies don’t want to borrow money at high interest rates to keep if they’re worried about anything. So now they’re starting to say, you know, they’re starting to fire employees.
SPEAKER 16 :
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Talk about, along those same lines, because all this dovetails into it, the Treasury versus the Fed. There was an article in Zero Hedge, and I always take what Zero Hedge says with sort of a grain of salt. I think sometimes they’re really good. They’re spot on. Other times they’re a little bit conspiratorial. So I don’t take everything they say as the Bible by any means, Scott. But in this particular case, I think this is a good article. It’s talking about Treasury versus the Fed. With the Fed sidelined, Besant unleashes a record $10 billion bond buyback. Talk about that and how that could affect interest rates.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yes. So a great way to think about that is quantitative easing that we saw after the financial crisis. And so what the Trump administration is really trying to do is get borrowing costs down. And one way you get borrowing costs down is to buy up outstanding treasuries. Because as you buy them up and there’s less supply out there, more people will start to buy them up. And as prices go up, the yield comes down. So as yields come down, all the loans that are benchmarked versus a 10-year treasury yield, as that yield drops, the loan costs come down.
SPEAKER 16 :
Got it.
SPEAKER 09 :
And so that’s… That’s a big push.
SPEAKER 16 :
So in other words, it’s a way to reduce borrowing costs outside of the Fed.
SPEAKER 09 :
Correct. And this is a big reason. Now, the problem with that is the Fed could be helping this by cutting rates instead of forcing… you know, the fiscal side to be spending money to get rates to come down.
SPEAKER 16 :
Okay, so here’s a question that I think a lot of people would have. Where does the money come from that’s buying these bonds back, that’s buying these treasuries back?
SPEAKER 09 :
I mean, it could really come from anywhere, but it would be in the treasuries account from the money they receive from the Federal Reserve for different operations of use. Gotcha.
SPEAKER 16 :
Okay. So, I mean, it’s essentially still taxpayer money, I guess you could say, at the end of the day. It’s just a matter of how it’s being used. Correct, correct. Okay. And being used in a way to help, quote-unquote, prop up the economy or help the economy grow.
SPEAKER 09 :
And help the taxpayer because they’re trying to bring borrowing costs down for taxpayers. Right, good point. And make the economy grow and make sure people stay employed. Okay, so dumb question on my part.
SPEAKER 16 :
The Fed can see all of this. They know even before you and I that these things are happening. This article was talking about how Besant and Powell have breakfast once a week. I mean, they’re talking about these things. How can Jerome Powell still be sitting on the sidelines knowing this stuff’s going on?
SPEAKER 09 :
I don’t know. It’s getting to the point where he’s got to do something. You know, what’s also interesting is the Fed has actually stopped. They’ve cut way back on QT, which is quantitative tightening, where they stopped reinvesting in bonds. They’re reinvesting more. That should help. But yeah, the Fed, it’s getting to a point where they’re really making a mistake now. And if you go back and look at the CBO’s original scoring of Trump’s budget plans prior to getting in office, when they scored tariffs with 10% on the world and an additional 50% on China, they said that would cause inflation to go up by 0.9% a year for one year, and that’s it. So it would be a temporary shock. So in other words, To your point earlier, if the Fed cut by 100 basis points and we saw that jump, they would still have a rate cut cushion.
SPEAKER 16 :
Well, and here’s the other reality, too, as you know. We haven’t even talked about this yet. None of the tariff stuff that’s gone on has really done anything to raise inflation. I talked about this earlier in the week, even a little bit last week, outside of you, that The other thing about – and bear with me here because this is a little bit hard to explain, and I think most people can track with me. But where some of the tariffs come into play – I’ll use Walmart as an example because they’re one of the ones whining about how they’re going to have to pass some of these costs on to their customers, blah, blah, blah. Okay, fine. Trump – Trump even threatened that no Walmart, you need to suck it up and eat it. Well, I don’t believe I don’t agree with that either. If he puts a tariff in, you need to pass it on and so on. And the reason why I don’t mind so much what Walmart does in regards to tariffs and even passing them on is because I’ve got to be careful how I say this. But there’s a lot of people that shop at Walmart that are net tax receivers. They are not net tax income. They’re not net income tax payers. Now, if this, Scott, is what gets them to pay a little bit of their own fair share by paying tariffs, because that’s essentially what they’re going to be doing with a little bit higher costs at Walmart. So be it. They can finally start paying a little bit of their fair share. That’s why I don’t care at the end of the day. And frankly, it really won’t do much in the way of inflation because there’s enough other things that are countering that with fuel and groceries and so on that at the end of the day, it’s a nothing burger. But in this particular case, non-tax payers are actually going to start paying a little bit of their fair share, which I’m okay with.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yeah, that’s fair. I mean, I believe it’s like the top 40 or 50 percent of the only ones who pay taxes are
SPEAKER 16 :
Yeah, about 47% of Americans pay no taxes.
SPEAKER 09 :
And it’s the, I mean, when you start getting to like the top 5% and 10%, I mean, they pay the lion’s share, and I’ll just say it straight up, they’re probably not at Walmart. Yes, yes.
SPEAKER 16 :
Sorry. I mean, we can dance around this all we want, Scott, but the reality is, you know, millionaires and billionaires, and I get it, some cases they may be shopping at Walmart, but the majority probably are not.
SPEAKER 09 :
Well, yeah, and then sort of my point with that, too, and where you’re going is, like, you know, when the Democrats say that going into elections, a lot of that, like, hey, we want everybody to pay their fair share of taxes. Like, if you wanted everybody to pay their fair share of taxes… you’d be taxing the base that you’re trying to rally.
SPEAKER 16 :
That’s right.
SPEAKER 09 :
It’s all populist rhetoric saying, I get there are different tax advantages and write-offs and blah, blah, blah. But at the end of the day, the numbers and the data still tell you that the top 50% pay almost all the taxes in this country.
SPEAKER 16 :
Right. You’re right. Anyways, I hate to get off track on that, but I do think there’s, and trust me, I guarantee you some of these conversations that you and I just had go on in some of the higher levels because they know the exact same thing that I’m talking about. And at the end of the day, given where oil prices, groceries and such are, it’s not going to have any negative effect. And the reality is it hasn’t have any negative effect to this point. We have not seen any inflation jumps from tariffs at all.
SPEAKER 09 :
So, you know, one of the things I would say there, too, like people are worried about what’s going to happen to demand for U.S. agricultural goods from China. Well, why should we have to buy agricultural goods from other countries? Why can’t we just buy them at home?
SPEAKER 16 :
We can.
SPEAKER 09 :
And that should step in and suck up any of this.
SPEAKER 16 :
That’s right.
SPEAKER 09 :
The missing demand. It shouldn’t be a problem.
SPEAKER 16 :
That’s right. Okay, so a question. And I didn’t look. I’m sorry. I should have this on the tip of my tongue, and I don’t. When’s the next Fed meeting?
SPEAKER 09 :
The next SED meeting is next week. It’s next week.
SPEAKER 16 :
Any predictions as to what they do?
SPEAKER 09 :
I think they’re going to hold with a bias toward cutting rates again.
SPEAKER 16 :
In other words, they’re going to sit on the sidelines once again.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yes, they’re going to sit on the sidelines once again. I believe they meet again in two weeks.
SPEAKER 16 :
They meet in August then, right?
SPEAKER 09 :
And then they meet again in July. And they skip August.
SPEAKER 16 :
Is that what it is? I can’t remember.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yeah, it’s two months every quarter.
SPEAKER 16 :
Okay. Yeah, you’re right. So they meet again. So it’s June 17th to 18th, and it’s just a little over a month. About five weeks later, they do July 29th through 30th, and they skip August.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yes, that’s correct.
SPEAKER 16 :
So your prediction is, will they do a rate cut in July or no?
SPEAKER 09 :
I think you’ve got a good shot at a rate cut in July.
SPEAKER 16 :
They’ll wait for the second half of the year, then, is what you’re saying.
SPEAKER 09 :
Correct. So far, the only place I’ve seen a whole lot of or anything really about inflation starting to show up is in shoe prices. The stories I’ve seen is about 10%. That’s about a 2% weighting in the CPI index. Gotcha.
SPEAKER 16 :
Gotcha. Okay, good to know. Well, you’re the guy. You keep track of it. I appreciate it very much, and thanks for all that you do. Scott, how do folks find you?
SPEAKER 09 :
Yeah, sure. See Scott Garlis on LinkedIn, Twitter, or Substack.
SPEAKER 16 :
You’re awesome, Scott. Appreciate your advice all the time.
SPEAKER 09 :
John, thanks so much for your time. You betcha, man.
SPEAKER 16 :
Have a great night. And if you want any specific advice, if you’re a day trader, you do some things on your own and so on, and you want some advice on what to do, follow Scott. He’s always got some great tips on those things, and I appreciate him and his time greatly. Golden Eagle Financial, where if you don’t know how to do any of this, don’t want to do any of it, you want somebody doing it all for you, that is where Golden Eagle Financial and Al Smith comes into play. Talk to Al today. Just go to klzradio.com.
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SPEAKER 08 :
This isn’t rage radio. This is real, relatable radio. Back to Rush to Reason.
SPEAKER 16 :
All right, sometimes things drive me crazy. Other times, doesn’t bother me at all. There’s a Wall Street Journal article talking about a two-word greeting that is taking over and driving shoppers nuts. Now, this does nothing to me because it doesn’t bother me a bit. And the two-word… that the two words that merchants are saying is, welcome in. Instead of just saying, welcome, or thank you for coming in, they’re saying, welcome in, and it’s driving shoppers nuts. And I look at that and think, okay, well, at least they’re welcoming me. I’m happy half the time to even have them acknowledge I just walked in the door. So if they want to say, welcome in to me, I’m all in. I could care less one way or the other. But for some people, I guess it’s really driving them crazy and Honestly, people, get over yourself. There’s better things to be worried about. So we’ll be back tomorrow. Dr. Kelly and Steve joining us at 3 o’clock. Have a great night. Be safe out there. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560.
