Join host John Rush and guest Jordan Goodman, America’s Money Answer Man, as they dive into the details of the latest economic legislation, affectionately dubbed as the ‘Big Beautiful Bill.’ Discover the significant tax changes, including continued cuts in income tax rates and the increase in local tax deductions for high-tax states. The conversation also covers its potential implications for the economy, whether these cuts can pay for themselves, and what they mean for everyday Americans. In this episode, the duo also unpacks the new tax exemptions on tips, overtime, and Social Security. While these cuts offer a financial
SPEAKER 16 :
This is Rush to Reason.
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With your host, John Rush.
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Get a job, sir. You haven’t made everybody equal. You’ve made them the same, and there’s a big difference.
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Are you crazy? Am I? Or am I so sane that you just blew your mind?
SPEAKER 16 :
It’s Rush to Reason with your host, John Rush. Presented by Cub Creek Heating and Air Conditioning.
SPEAKER 15 :
And it’s Tuesday, Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. Andy is not with me today. Normally he is, but he’s on a little vacation. So appreciate Andy and all that he does when he is with us. And since he is still not here, or since he’s not here, Jordan Goodman joining me today. But America’s Money Answer Man. Jordan, you’re used to talking to Andy, so it’s just me today. Sorry.
SPEAKER 13 :
Just hit John and we’ll do perfectly fine. We’ve got plenty to talk about.
SPEAKER 15 :
With everything that’s gone on here of late, there is more than enough to talk about. And before we get started, Jordan, as folks are listening in, how do they find you?
SPEAKER 13 :
They can always email me at jordan.moneyanswers.com. I get emails from folks all the time.
SPEAKER 15 :
All right, let’s talk about, start with the big, beautiful bill. I was talking to a few of my clients even today about that because of some of the things that it brings back to life. Maybe it’s the best way for me to say that, Jordan, on the business side. And yes, there’s lots of nuances to it. I haven’t read every single thing in it. And some of the tax code for some of those things, I don’t even know if it’s been written yet, for example, some of the no tax on tips and things along those lines. But For business owners and those that are used to doing investments, R&D, accelerated depreciation, Section 179, and so on, those are back.
SPEAKER 13 :
Yeah. I mean, this is a 960-page bill, so I hereby excuse you for having not read the whole thing. Thank you. Okay. Thank you. Let’s go through. There’s a bunch of different things to go through since this is now law. Obviously, it’s going to take a long time for the regulators to roll out the actual implementation regulations for these things. It was just passed last Friday. Friday, that’s right. Okay, so let’s talk about some of the first of all taxes. So the tax rates, income tax rates were cut in 2017, the top marginal rate 37%. That was about to go up at the end of this year. They now stay the same marginal rates they were before. Doesn’t sound like much, but had they gone up, it would have been a big tax increase on an awful lot of people. So that’s by far the biggest part as far as revenue loss to the government, at least in the short term.
SPEAKER 15 :
And really quick, too, Jordan, don’t forget, too, for those of you listening, depending upon what side of the aisle that you’re on, there were some of those middle class, quote-unquote, as I’ve always said, Jordan, that became net tax receivers, not net taxpayers, that frankly will be that same way. They could have very easily lost that.
SPEAKER 13 :
That’s correct. That’s correct. But one thing that was done for the high-tax states… And I’m not sure, I don’t think I would count Colorado as one of them, is the so-called SALT deduction, the local tax deduction. I mean, you’re kind of middle ground. You’re not New York, you’re not California, you’re not Illinois. That’s right. But you’re not Texas either. You’re kind of somewhere in between there. But the SALT deduction had been $10,000, and now it’s been raised to $40,000. So people who pay a lot of state income tax or property tax on their property now get to, right off up to $40,000, which helps, but it helps mostly high-income people in high-tax states with big houses. That usually would help.
SPEAKER 15 :
Which really, at the end of the day, and you know this better than even I or anybody else, what that does, and for everybody listening, is yes, we’re all… supplementing for that. But, you know, there’s a lot of things we could say along those same lines, including, you know, child tax credits, things along those lines as well, Jordan, where all us taxpayers are pitching in on one level or another. What it really does, though, what those SALT deductions do is it keeps those people in those states, because in a lot of cases, if they lose that, they may very well go somewhere else. Am I right?
SPEAKER 13 :
And that’s what happened. When the deduction went down, it had been unlimited. before 2017, and then it went down to 10,000, that definitely encouraged a lot of people to leave the high-tax states. You’ve seen a lot of people leaving New York and Illinois and California and the high-tax states, and that was one reason for it. So it’s not fully back to where it was, which was unlimited. But $40,000 is certainly a lot higher than that.
SPEAKER 15 :
And really quick, for all those that are on the right side of the aisle that are thinking, well, yeah, well, that’s fine. Why would we want them to stay in those areas that they’re in now? And I have an answer for that for all of you that may not look at this the way I am. Actually, Jordan, I’m a little bit okay with paying that higher rate. as another taxpayer, I’m okay paying for some of those deductions, if you would, or offsetting those with my own tax dollars, because frankly, a lot of those people and their politics and the way they look at things, I’d rather have them in those blue states that are typically that way anyways, because as they migrate out into some of the other states, it actually changes the makeup of those states. I’m fine leaving it this way.
SPEAKER 13 :
Well, as you know, I moved from New York to North Carolina about two years ago, and a lot of the people who moved in here to North Carolina are from New York and New Jersey and Illinois and higher tax states, typically blue. So you’re right, it has changed the political composition of of states that were typically pure red, and now they’re kind of more purple.
SPEAKER 15 :
Well, yeah, so my point is before a lot of folks on the conservative side would get all uptight and bent because, yes, every other taxpayer is chipping in to cover for those particular deductions, but there’s lots of others that we pitch in on as well, and there are deductions that go the other way that others are pitching in. So, you know, it kind of goes both ways, Jordan, and no, I don’t particularly enjoy helping those states that have a high income tax rate, but on the same token, frankly, I don’t want them moving. I want them staying there.
SPEAKER 13 :
A lot of them are moving. The tax is just kind of pushing them over the edge, but there are other reasons why people are leaving the high-tax state regulations and so on. Anyway, so that’s the first thing. Okay, now some other tax aspects of the big, beautiful bill. The child tax credit is up to $2,200. It had been 1,000, so that was an improvement, and that’ll help a lot of people. I mean, it’s not a huge amount, but it’s certainly helpful to people with kids. The three big taxes that are being taken away are tips, overtime, and Social Security. So let’s take those one at a time. So on tips, so servers, restaurant workers, hotel workers, cab drivers, a lot of people get tips. uh… they won’t have to pay tax on the trip but they’ve done so this is going to have to keep very careful records right of what earnings and what steps and you have to be able to prove it okay i mean this is like now when you do business deductions and travel entertainment you gotta keep very careful records we’re going to be you know say your cab driver and your the rod was thirty dollars and the tip of five dollars or something right you’re gonna have to keep track of that five dollars separate from the thirty dollars and report it separately. It is sending people money, but it’s going to be a bureaucratic nightmare.
SPEAKER 15 :
And one thing I’ve seen, and again, we don’t have all the finality of this, so I don’t know exactly, but one thing I did read, I think it was yesterday, Jordan, where there is some scuttlebutt about potentially giving some – the IRS doing some standard deductions for people that have those particular classifications of jobs. So say, for example, you’re a tipped worker – They may very well, where before you made $100,000 and maybe $24,000, there was additional income in tips. What they’re going to do now is just say, well, if you make $124,000, we’re going to take that $24,000 right off the top, and you now make $100,000. There might be some standardized ways of doing that is my point, and I don’t know that for sure.
SPEAKER 13 :
Yeah, well, that would make sense because it’s going to be a bureaucratic nightmare because, remember, you have to prove it. So typically you get tips in cash, typically. I mean, maybe on a bill at a restaurant or something. But it sounds great, and it’s great people will have more money, but they’re going to have to keep very careful track record. So that’s on the tips. The same thing with overtime. So you’re going to have to differentiate what is your regular time…
SPEAKER 15 :
And that one typically, not always, because it depends on who your boss is and what company you work for, I guess is what I should say. Typically, those are spelled out because most states require that overtime to be at a certain pay higher than regular wages. That one’s typically tracked through most of the payroll companies and or the business you’re working for, correct?
SPEAKER 13 :
When you get your W-2, it doesn’t say regular wages and overtime.
SPEAKER 15 :
See, ours do here. Ours do here.
SPEAKER 13 :
Well, that would be good, because that’s what’s going to be needed. Because, again, there’s a bureaucracy involved in saying what’s… Because they’re going to be taxed at different levels.
SPEAKER 15 :
Exactly.
SPEAKER 13 :
Which is fine, and it saves people money, but I’m just saying there’s a bureaucratic part of this thing that people haven’t particularly thought about.
SPEAKER 15 :
And then the third word… And really quick, too, I want to make sure we remind everybody, those aren’t indefinite. Those don’t last forever either, right, Jordan?
SPEAKER 13 :
Four years.
SPEAKER 15 :
And in 2028, right? That’s right. After the next election…
SPEAKER 13 :
other have to be renewed but it’s it’s hard when you give people i’m not taking away back that’s right you’re right we’ve learned that that’s right and then the third big one is our security which depending on your income and so on this is now partially taxable same thing it’ll be it’ll be a deduction against your income so lower your adjustable gross income to some extent and that’ll help for security receptors so those are all great putting more money in people’s pockets in various ways But it also means the government’s going to collect a lot less revenue. I mean, just the Social Security alone. The Social Security Administration says that not having that taxable income will shorten the time that Social Security goes bankrupt from 2033 to maybe 2030 or something like that. So there’s a downside to all these things as well. The government’s getting less revenue, and therefore the deficit’s will be higher than they would have been otherwise.
SPEAKER 15 :
Yeah, the whole idea being, and this is what happened last time around, that we do more as a country and revenues increase, more people are working, there’s more people being added back in to the economy where more of them become net taxpayers instead of net tax receivers. That’s the whole, I mean, that’s the mindset behind all this, correct?
SPEAKER 13 :
That’s good, but the question always is, are these tax going to so-called pay for themselves?
SPEAKER 15 :
Yes, I believe they will.
SPEAKER 13 :
We’ve been through this a lot of times, and the end result is, based on past experiences, no, the tax cuts do not pay for themselves. They do create more economic growth, which is good, but the tax cuts are so great in this case, and there’s some other ones, too, that I don’t think the tax cuts will so-called pay for themselves. Now, we’ve had several experiences. In 1981, under Reagan, massive tax cuts. The economy boomed, but we still had big deficits. Under Bush in 2003, we had tax cuts that did not, again, pay for themselves. In 2017, under Trump, we had tax cuts. The economy did do better, but it didn’t pay for itself.
SPEAKER 15 :
And the thing that I want to argue about that one is, had we not had COVID, would they have? And that’s the question we don’t know, because everything pretty much got wiped out with COVID. We don’t know on that one.
SPEAKER 13 :
Well, we have the experience from 2018, 2019, before COVID hit. And the economy grew at a faster pace, maybe one percentage point in GDP more than it would have otherwise. But it still did not produce the extra revenue to pay for those taxes. So the end result of the deficit went up a lot. Okay, so we’re at $37 trillion now.
SPEAKER 15 :
Correct.
SPEAKER 13 :
Another thing in the big, beautiful bill was raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion. That’s the biggest ever raising of the debt ceiling. The reason they do that is they don’t want to have these constant dramas. Going back and forth. You and I have talked about that in the past. That’ll be, so we’ve now given ourselves permission to go up to $42 trillion. in debt without having to go through a debt ceiling vote. I guess that’s a good thing.
SPEAKER 15 :
In a way, you know me. I’m a hawk. You know me. I want to see it go down and not up. So I don’t like it going up at all. Although, and you and I have had this conversation many times in the past, all of this back and forth that happens when it has to be raised, in the end, it’s always raised anyways. There’s just a ton of political jockeying going on, and frankly – You know, you know this as well as I do, Jordan. You know, some politicians somewhere, they keep adding things in that any time you come to. So I’m one of those to where I’m OK with a straight raise as long as we watch our P’s and Q’s and we don’t just, you know, spend our way all the way to that by tomorrow. Because the alternative is we still end up getting there. And frankly, we we sometimes end up getting there in a lot more nefarious ways than this.
SPEAKER 13 :
Yeah. Well, the Congressional Budget Office has scored this bill, big, beautiful bill, and they say it’s going to add about $3.3 trillion.
SPEAKER 15 :
Yeah, but they’re always wrong. Sorry, but those guys haven’t been right yet.
SPEAKER 13 :
Yeah, whatever it is, it’s going to add to the deficit. We know that. I mean, just the interest on the national debt alone is growing.
SPEAKER 15 :
So when we come back, let’s talk about some of the actual cuts that are in this bill as well. They hopefully offset some of those things, not all of it, but some of that. And we’ll talk about the Fed and some of that as well, because, yes, what you just said plays a big part of this as well. We’ll be right back, guys. Dr. Scott’s up next. He is, of course, not only my doctor, but a lot of you that are listening as well. He’s your doctor also. Give him a call today. He wants to talk to you and take care of you outside of big healthcare, big pharma. He will do what you need, not what they tell you you need. 303-663-6990.
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SPEAKER 05 :
Live and local, back to Rush to Reason.
SPEAKER 15 :
And we are back. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. Jordan Goodman with us, America’s Money Answer Man. Again, Jordan, if folks want to get a hold of you, how do they do that?
SPEAKER 13 :
They can always email me at jordan at moneyanswers.com.
SPEAKER 15 :
All right. Let’s talk about some of the cuts that are in the big, beautiful bill. I know it’s not going to be, because I don’t believe it’s going to be enough to offset what we’re doing on the other side of it, but there are cuts.
SPEAKER 13 :
So big in health care, Medicaid, they’re talking about potentially a trillion in cuts over a few years. And again, the congressional budget option, and not to believe them, but they’re talking about 16 million Americans losing health insurance because of that. And they’ve added a work requirement as well, 20 hours a week, which can be either paid or volunteer, in order to qualify for Medicaid. A lot of people won’t do that.
SPEAKER 15 :
Right, or schooling. They can actually go to school as well. And then the other thing that it will do is, which we’ve talked about before, like here in Colorado, for example, I gave this example yesterday. We’ve got folks here in Colorado where they may be making, as a couple, $75,000, $80,000 a year. I think the threshold is $75,000, so $75,000 or below. But as a couple combined, have the opportunity to have insurance through their company, but choose not to because Medicaid is free.
SPEAKER 13 :
Right. That’s right. So those people will be losing that. Their company plans.
SPEAKER 15 :
Well, probably not. And if these people are, in my opinion, freeloaders and they don’t want to go out and work the 80 hours a month and they’re able and willing to do so. I read an article the other day where somebody was complaining and whining that so-and-so that has disability won’t have that any longer. That is so far from the truth. It’s not even funny because the way that works, and you know this as well, Jordan, if they’re already on disability and they’ve gone through all of the checks and balances to get on disability, they’re not going anywhere.
SPEAKER 13 :
Correct. It’s so-called able-bodied people. That’s right. So that’s a big one. And then, I mean, they’re complaining that a lot of rural hospitals will close because they’re getting 50, 60 percent of their income from Medicaid. So they just won’t be able to make it. So we’ll see. These are the predictions that are made. The other big social safety net program that’s going to be cut a lot is SNAP, which is the food stamps. Right. Where, again, maybe you can say people don’t need it, but there’s a lot of people that might go hungry, literally, for not having food stamps to be able to buy what they need. So that’s in the hundreds of billions of dollars. These are big, big cuts. So just across the board, I mean, for example, in health research, National Institutes of Health and all the things, cancer and diabetes and Alzheimer’s and cancer, all these things, they’ve already laid off thousands of researchers in various ways federal workers directly in contract with universities so it would be a lot less investment in health care research of all types of those are some of the big healthcare changes we’re about to see
SPEAKER 15 :
Yeah, and again, a lot of this, as you know, this will be things that we talk about a year from now and see how some of this stuff shakes out. I am, as you know, I’m always one of those where, well, you know what, we’ll see how things work out. I’m never one of these that get into panic mode on anything one way or the other, by the way, either side of the aisle, because I guess I’m more take that reasonable approach of let’s see how things all turn out. Let’s get everything all dialed in. And by the way, if you’re an able-bodied worker, you shouldn’t be on my tax dime on anything as far as I’m concerned, including food or medical or anything along those lines, which, by the way, Jordan, if those people now have to go out and actually work, that’s another number that gets added back in on the other equation we were talking about earlier, if, in fact, they go do that.
SPEAKER 13 :
Yeah, if they’re getting work and being productive and paying taxes, that’s a net gain for the whole situation. So that would be a good thing. I just think there are going to be people who are going to not be able to work or suffer and not have skills or whatever. And there’s just a whole bunch of other spending cuts. Those are the big ones. On the other side, massive spending increases for defense and border security. So on border security, it’s like $45 billion to build the wall. uh… forty six billion for detention camps that they’ve got got alligator alcatraz in florida that’ll be the first of many detention facilities uh… that’ll be built uh… massive new spending for ice and uh… border patrol uh… people i mean the whole system of stopping uh… illegal immigration is going to be beefed up dramatically by billions and billions of dollars so that’s probably a good thing and people will support that
SPEAKER 15 :
Yeah, and we’ll see. Again, that’s another one of those, you know, wait and see. Well, it already is, I believe, slowing down those that are trying to come across the border in the first place, because if they realize that, oh, wait a minute, I might be held accountable for these things when they actually arrive, well, of course, that changes everything. And as you know, there’s an And I don’t know even what this number is. I don’t think anybody has any accuracy when it comes to this. But what’s it costing us in a lot of cases to have a lot of these folks that are here on an illegal basis? You know my feeling on that. We need a merit-based immigration system. It needs to be changed immensely. It’s one thing that I get disappointed about on an ongoing basis with all the things we’re talking about. Everything in the bill, great, fabulous, fine, whatever. As a business owner, I get some of my accelerated depreciation back. That’s all great. But what I really want most of all, Jordan, is a renewed, redone immigration system.
SPEAKER 13 :
Yeah. Well, this bill, the big, beautiful bill, had zero Democratic support and barely squeaked through in the Senate. Right. Literally was a tie vote broken by the vice president. Right. out of the house literally with two votes uh… despair so it was not exactly a bipartisan bill in any way and for immigration it’s the same thing we we definitely need to take everybody agrees we need to fix the system But nobody can agree on it, and the Congress is so split, it’s hard to imagine they’ll get some major immigration thing because nobody agrees how to do it.
SPEAKER 15 :
One side wants to allow a lot more, in my opinion, the freeloading aspect of things where somebody else like me, I’m all for having you here as long as you’re coming to participate, add value to what we’re doing, bringing a skill set with you. You know what? I’ll give you a hug at the border for that matter.
SPEAKER 13 :
So that’s a major change. The other big spending area is going to be defense. So we’re talking about the Golden Dome, which is defending us against the missiles, more ships, more planes. We have depleted our inventory of arms, given a lot of it to Ukraine, actually.
SPEAKER 06 :
That’s right.
SPEAKER 15 :
How much of that do you feel, and again, this is another one of those where it’s a wait and see, but the agreement we made with Ukraine to then pull some of their minerals back out, how much of that will offset some of that, or has anybody come up with any guesstimates?
SPEAKER 13 :
These mines are not developed, so it could take 10 years to develop the mine in Ukraine before we start getting any significant strategic minerals, but I think it’s a good idea for us to get something out of it, so just pouring money into them and never getting anything out of it.
SPEAKER 15 :
Agreed.
SPEAKER 13 :
But it’s not instant. It takes a long time. And a lot of these strategic minerals are right in war zones. Got to get that over with first. It’s a great place to be building a mine where you have drones and missiles hitting you all the time. I think the war really needs to end before they can really exploit those strategic minerals in Ukraine.
SPEAKER 15 :
All right, let’s jump into the whole, you know, Jerome Powell, the tariff talk, some of the things that we can talk about in regards to what was starting even, I believe it’s either today or tomorrow. I guess it’s the 9th, so that would be tomorrow. And Jerome Powell has even said that if it wasn’t for those, I would have lowered rates, which, by the way, I think is a really, really stupid answer. He is he’s going to find himself going down in history as being one of the most political Fed chairs, given the fact that he reduced rates under the last administration hasn’t in this one. We haven’t seen the inflation numbers that he keeps worrying about. I mean, I’m just telling you right up straight up, Jordan, this guy just doesn’t get it, in my opinion.
SPEAKER 13 :
Well, the official numbers are not quite at their targets. They’re close. The inflation rate’s about 2.4% now, which is close to their 2%, but not quite there. But he explicitly said for the first time last week that had we not had the threat of tariffs, that he would have lowered rates, because he’s worried about the inflation that will come from tariffs. And it could happen. We don’t know what’s going to happen. I mean, tomorrow is the official deadline, July 9th. that President Trump announced originally on April 9th, giving 90 days to have deals. We’ve only had two deals so far, which is United Kingdom and Vietnam. China kind of, but not an official deal. And all the other 130 countries, or however many it is, have been talking, but not had actual deals. So today, President Trump said, this is it. He sent out letters to a lot of these countries saying, this is the final offer. Okay, and And either you agree to things or the tariffs are going to hit August 1st, so three weeks from now, basically. And everybody’s in a complete panic over this. It’s like, I can’t deal with this.
SPEAKER 15 :
And you want to know why, Jordan? It’s because for years, these other countries have gotten used to just getting by, slipping through the cracks, not really having to be accountable to us for anything. And finally, there’s a president, President Trump, that’s going to hold their feet to the fire and And I’ve said this before. There is no reason at all that the majority of the larger countries, I get the small countries and frankly could care less about them anyways because we don’t buy enough goods and services for most of them to worry about it. But the big countries, there’s no reason why these guys don’t have deals done at this point in time. It’s just being stubborn, if you ask me.
SPEAKER 13 :
Well, they’re giving up something that they’ve had for a long time. Exactly.
SPEAKER 15 :
They’ve been fleecing us for years, and now they’re going to have to pay the piper, and they don’t like it. That’s exactly right.
SPEAKER 13 :
They don’t like it. That is correct. So, I mean, China is the biggest one. Canada is obviously a big one as well. And we’ll have to see. We have not come to any major deals with them, only the United Kingdom. So let’s say for a moment that we do not get deals. And let’s say the tariffs go into effect three weeks from now, August 1st. You’re talking about major tariffs. I mean, some of these countries are 40%, 50%. Some of them are 70%. China would be, well, it’s a base of 30% now, but it could be much more than that. I mean, we’re importing over $600 billion worth of goods from China every year. So you add… 30% or 40% on top of that, that is inflationary, okay, because that’s going to be passed through to consumers.
SPEAKER 15 :
Well, and this is where you and I will have to agree to disagree. Not necessarily, because I think what’s already started to happen is depending upon what that good is, people are adjusting their buying habits and are figuring out either – A, I don’t need that, or I can work around that and buy something else. And at the end of the day, I’m just fine when it’s all said and done. I’ll tell you right now, as a business and as a couple, that’s exactly what we have done, Jordan. And I guarantee you, I’m not the only American and American business out there that’s done that.
SPEAKER 13 :
It will change buying behavior. I agree. And people will tend not to buy the things that have a big price increase. because of tariffs, and in theory that’s going to help American producers. The problem is a lot of stuff is not made in America.
SPEAKER 06 :
Correct.
SPEAKER 13 :
A lot. I’ll just give you a recent example. Fireworks, okay? Right. 99% of the fireworks come from China.
SPEAKER 15 :
And that’s one where, no offense, even if they doubled in price, people are still going to buy them. That one won’t have any effect whatsoever. Sorry.
SPEAKER 13 :
Well, that’s a big expense for municipalities to double what they’re paying for.
SPEAKER 15 :
It is, but you know what? It’s that old saying, Jordan, people buy what they want to. Not what they have to, what they want to.
SPEAKER 13 :
Maybe we’ll have fewer fireworks. Maybe we’ll have the same fireworks at double the cost or something. But that’s just a specific example. Fireworks are not made in the United States. They just are not. And the only place we get them is from China. The world gets them from China, basically.
SPEAKER 15 :
There’s a lot of other things like that.
SPEAKER 13 :
There is no domestic alternative for a whole bunch of stuff. And one of the other big ones is strategic minerals. China has about 97% of strategic and rare earth minerals. And there’s no other place to go for them. So they have a real headlock on that one, I guess you might say. So these are the leverage they’ve got. The leverage we’ve got is that we’re the big buyers.
SPEAKER 15 :
We’re the biggest customer. That’s right.
SPEAKER 13 :
We’re the biggest customer. We’re the one paying the $600 billion. That’s right. And a lot of their businesses are really hurting right now because their American orders have dropped dramatically. So it’s hurt the Chinese economy.
SPEAKER 15 :
As you know, China and there’s been I read some stuff yesterday. Don’t again, don’t know how true some of these things are because I’m not there. I’m not on the ground. But supposedly there are all sorts of high ranking officials and other others in China right now that haven’t been seen now for weeks. And they are, I believe, in a world of hurt trying to figure out what to do next there. Their pride, Jordan, and we’ve talked about this before, that old saying, pride cometh before a fall, their pride is going to get the best of them.
SPEAKER 13 :
Well, the way they would refer to it is losing face. And losing face is the worst thing that can happen in China. So to be seen as weak or giving in to pressure is losing face. So they may kind of lose their face anyway, despite their resistance to doing so. So this is a big one. We’ll have to see if this can be done. I mean, supposedly we’re having conversation with China. They’ve eased up on strategic minerals a little bit, and we’ve eased up on some chips to some extent. But that’s the big one that we really have to resolve one way or the other. And if we do not get it resolved and massive tariffs, more than 30% going on China goods, that is clearly going to be inflationary. There’s a lot of stuff that we import from China that you can’t get anywhere else, and it’s going to cost more.
SPEAKER 15 :
And that’s what Fed Reserve Chairman… Well, and here’s my… And you already know. My frustration with the Fed is we haven’t had any now for several months. They could have easily lowered rates, added some things back into those small to medium-sized businesses, the housing market, and all sorts of other things that they literally could have jump-started that, frankly, Jordan… If, in fact, we end up with any kind of inflation, which I don’t think we’ll have a whole lot when it’s all said and done, time will tell. But if they would have done some of that, the reality is they would have, A, been ahead of it. And if they even had to tick them back up slightly just because inflation went up, they’d still be ahead of it. I don’t know what they’re doing. They don’t understand Main Street is the problem.
SPEAKER 13 :
Yeah. Well, you’re right. I mean, for example, the housing market has really been hurt by this, with mortgage rates around 7%. and home prices at high levels, and home insurance premiums having gone up. It’s just unaffordable for them. The spring housing market was terrible. It was the worst since 2009, and many cases, both new and existing home sales, are way, way down. They don’t have a big multiplier impact in the economy. Because when people don’t buy homes, they don’t buy carpeting and furniture. They don’t buy all kinds of other stuff. TVs and so on.
SPEAKER 15 :
That’s right. That’s right. Again, that’s one where I feel like they’ve really missed the mark. Okay, we’ll come back, talk a little bit more about that. Don’t go anywhere. Real quick, Jordan, how do folks find you?
SPEAKER 13 :
They can always email me, jordan at moneyanswers.com.
SPEAKER 15 :
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SPEAKER 05 :
The best export we have is Common Sense. You’re listening to Rush to Reason.
SPEAKER 15 :
All right, last segment we have with Jordan Goodman, America’s Money Answer Man. Okay, let’s talk a little bit more about not only the Fed, but the stock market, how that’s being affected by all of this, the unemployment numbers and so on. Economy, all in all, isn’t as bad as it probably could be, Jordan. On the same token, I believe it could be a whole lot better had the Fed done some of the things I mentioned a moment ago.
SPEAKER 13 :
Right. Well, the high interest rates are clearly taking a toll. The unemployment numbers we saw last Friday, the overall number was pretty good, 147,000 jobs graded. But if you look under the hood, it was only 78,000 private sector jobs, and the rest were mostly state jobs, mostly in education. so the private sector hiring is really slow down a lot from what it was earlier you think what’s happening in the housing market and just that’s right you’re not going to be building homes you’re not going to have realtors all the things that that’ll impact uh… places like that uh… and this is before the impact the tariffs tariffs are going to have some impact uh… for example the buyers of aluminum and and steel like car companies so i’m just they they can’t they have to absorb these higher costs and they’re going to cut jobs as a result of last week microsoft let off 9,000 workers. Those are even high-end kind of jobs. I think to some extent that’s because of artificial intelligence.
SPEAKER 15 :
Yeah, I agree with that.
SPEAKER 13 :
So, you know, the economy is slowing in certain ways. Now, in theory, these tax cuts will boost, as you say, accelerate depreciation 100% right off of investments. It could help small businesses do it. They need certainty to be able to do that. And now they’re going to get certainty because the bills affect permits. So that’s a positive. If you have businesses make decisions.
SPEAKER 15 :
And one thing that’s helping them and the economy in general is, you know, a lot of – I watched some folks on social media that I just laughed at because they were predicting oil to be at 130 a barrel, you know, when we were doing the Iran bombing. And I’m just like, you guys are such knuckleheads. Just give it a day or two. Let’s see how things turn out. And as it turned out, it never got any higher than about 78 and then went all the way down into the low 60s.
SPEAKER 13 :
Right. So that was a positive because it was not – I mean, had it gone another way in that Iraq blocked the Strait of Hormuz and started bombing Saudi Arabia – No, they need the cash too much.
SPEAKER 15 :
They need their own oil to go out because that’s one of their cash sources as well. Again, these are some of the things that those quote-unquote experts I think at times, Jordan, forget. I mean, the reality is Iran – and that’s why Israel didn’t attack them on any of their oil facilities and production. and all that kind of stuff. I mean, the reality is they still needed those things to go out the door, and nobody was going to stop that from happening, them included.
SPEAKER 13 :
That’s the only thing Iran has. They’ve tried exporting revolution. It hasn’t worked too well. Oil is about the only thing they’ve got. That’s all they’ve got. So, yes, it came out well. We bombed the nuclear facilities. relatively cleanly there was no radiation coming out of them uh… and iran pretty much gave up a truth in the forward belt american military base which did never be a factor of over the twelve-day war and i guess we’re calling in there so that was a very positive outcome uh… you know there was fear it could have gone the other way that uh… we could have had to complication but we didn’t so for that step we’ve been a positive the whole israel uh… dominance of the middle east is a very positive thing i mean they’ve wiped out from off They’ve wiped out Hezbollah. Syria has fallen. I wouldn’t call it democratic, but it’s a lot better than under Assad. So a lot of the major enemies have been vanquished, or Iran is kind of very weak now, and Israel is just very powerful in the whole region. Hopefully that creates some peace, and maybe we can have an accord between Israel and Saudi Arabia, for example, and other Arab states. So the whole calculus has changed.
SPEAKER 15 :
That wouldn’t surprise me, by the way, when it’s all said and done. We could very well, I think, see something along those lines. Talk to us, and I know it’s not in my notes, but talk to us about what investments or what folks should be looking at. I mean, gold has been really well. It’s fallen off some today, of course, but it’s been pretty strong all the way up to about $30. You definitely should have some gold.
SPEAKER 13 :
You could either buy physical gold. You could buy a gold exchange-traded fund like a GLD. Silver has also moved well. And Bitcoin has. because up to about a hundred nine thousand something like that uh… that’s been a really tough for a start of the year about seventy thousand has gone up dramatically those are considered alternatives to the u s dollar the dollar has fallen about ten percent so far this year because of all the things we’ve done with the uncertainty of the tariffs and all the other reasons uh… and so people want to get out of the dollar now one of the recent changes was the so-called bricks countries brazil russia india china south africa uh… trump said he’s gonna put extra tariffs on them to try to get out of the dollar there’s another major global uh… confrontation there uh… and when it when he don’t feel very likely put the power bottom brick for example in this happen in europe when they have the nato meeting and uh… thirty one of the thirty two countries that yes will increase our defense spending to five percent of dvp except for spain it’s okay spain we’re going to be attached to help about doing that though that’s that’s the leverage of trump used to get people to do what he wants which
SPEAKER 15 :
I mean, to me it seems pretty straightforward, and I guess maybe it’s just the mentality of those particular countries, the leaders of. I guess they think that Trump doesn’t mean business. I mean, I’m confused on some of that at times, Jordan. It’s like, A, no offense, Spain, you’re not that large. You’re not making that big of a dent, so why aren’t you just playing along?
SPEAKER 13 :
Yeah, well, I think there’s domestic political reasons, but every other NATO country agreed, which was a major… change. I mean, they’ve been at 2% of GDP in the United States, some even less, and they’ve all agreed to go up to 5% of GDP in 10 years. Europe does not have the defense industrial base to do that. They’re going to have to be building that up. They don’t build tanks and Patriot missiles and all the stuff that they’re going to need. So that’s going to be a major focus in Europe, is building up the defense, which they need because of what’s going on in Ukraine, where, unfortunately, the war is continually just completely bloody. Russia sends hundreds of drones and missiles every night now. It’s just completely unrestrained. They don’t seem to have any interest in a ceasefire whatsoever, and they’re seeing weakness on our part. We’re holding back some weapons that Ukraine would normally get, and they’re just bombing the daylight out of them because they don’t have the Patriot missiles to shoot a lot of these things down now. Not that Ukraine’s going to give up, but it’s just a bloody mess, and it seems to be going on for a long time.
SPEAKER 15 :
Yeah, what do you think? I mean, that’s one I’m surprised that there hasn’t been an end to now. It shows you how stubborn I think both countries are, Putin especially. What’s your prediction there? How long does this keep going?
SPEAKER 13 :
Years. I don’t see this ending. I don’t see Ukraine giving in, and I don’t see Russia giving in. Russia’s winning on the battlefield now. They took back that area around Kursk that Ukraine took. They’ve just got far more firepower and men. to do this. It’s a combination of World War I, trench warfare, and 2025 with drones and all these hypersonic missiles. It’s a very strange war where it kind of combines the ancient and the very, very modern.
SPEAKER 15 :
Right, absolutely. No, I was reading some things along those lines this morning, even some of the drones and what’s being used and so on. It’s a very interesting… uh battle war what you know whatever you want to call it war and and the outcome and i’m i’m with you unless there’s some major you know breakthrough and i don’t know exactly what that’s going to be you know whether trump can can you know have some sort of a breakthrough with putin because it’s not ukraine as you know it’s going to have to be something on the battlefield it would have to be in the battlefield only if putin felt threatened but he was going to lose
SPEAKER 13 :
would he come to the table? And he’s right now gaining. You know, at horrible losses, he loses hundreds of soldiers every day, but he doesn’t care. He’s just going to keep grinding away. So I don’t see him coming to the ceasefire table. We’ve put all the sanctions we can possibly put on him. He’s getting bailed out by China and India, mostly. If he didn’t have them, they wouldn’t have a friend in the world. They would be in North Korea, I should say. So I don’t see an end to that war, unfortunately. It’s just grinding on terribly.
SPEAKER 15 :
Yep. No, I agree with you. It is. And I’m with you. I don’t know, unless there’s some major change, and this is, you know, going back to what you said a moment ago on the battlefield, this is one area that I can almost assure you of, we will not get involved to the degree we just helped Israel with Iran. That’s not going to happen over there. We’re not going to get in some sort of an engagement with Russia like we just did with Iran. It’s not going to happen.
SPEAKER 13 :
Well, unless Russia invades like Estonia or Latvia, you know, that would be different.
SPEAKER 15 :
Yes, that
SPEAKER 13 :
It would be different. In NATO Article 5, you know, we are rushing. I mean, he hasn’t done that yet, but he’s threatened it. He’s threatened it in Moldova. I mean, there are other places he could go. And by crossing the red line, we, by treaty, are obligated to come to their defense.
SPEAKER 15 :
Right, right, yeah. So jumping back really quick to the Fed chair and all that, there’s been, you know, conversation around, you know, D.C. You’ve probably heard some of this where, you know, Trump’s already looking at naming the folks to replace Powell, not that he’s looking to replace him early. Do you think Powell will serve out his entire term or do you think he gets close to Christmas time and says, you know what, I’m done?
SPEAKER 13 :
No, no, he’s digging in his heels. He’s there till May 15th. two thousand twenty-six we’ve got like ten months ago and he’s going to serve up every last drop of it out of spite because he doesn’t want to be seen as pushed around or being uh… you know have a political influence on him uh… night but the most likely person would be kevin walsh who’s been fed board in the past would be much more compliant with what uh… trump wants but now i think trump uh… palestinian state of the bitter end
SPEAKER 15 :
That’s sad because, unfortunately, he’s going to end up going down, as I said earlier, as probably one of the worst Fed chairs we’ve had. And I mean that sincerely. He was late to the game. You and I talked about it back during COVID when he was calling inflation transitory. And guys like you and I and Andy were even saying, No, Jerome, it is not transitory. It’s here. It’s as plain as the nose. And by the way, he’s got a fairly good-sized nose. It’s as plain as the nose on his face was, and he couldn’t see that. And the fact of the matter is he’s bucking this one in exactly the same way. I believe, again, Jordan, this is one I don’t think I’m wrong on. Once he leaves, whenever that is, the history books will go down, will say that he goes down as one of the worst Fed chairs we’ve had.
SPEAKER 13 :
Well, we’ll see. I mean, I think the worst one would have been G. William Miller in the 1970s, who let inflation totally get out of control into hyperinflation. And he kind of fed the whole thing. So I would put that in the same category in a more egregious way. It could be done better now, but the economy is not in bad shape. It could be better. But it’s not as if we have hyperinflation or depression.
SPEAKER 15 :
I think what’s going to happen with Jerome is he’s going to go down in the history books as being somebody that, rather than looking at helping and fighting for the American public, he was fighting against the president, and he’s looking at it completely the wrong way. He should be fighting for and looking at the country as a whole and the American public, especially those that are the working class of this country, not fighting with somebody that’s in the White House. But that’s what he’s doing.
SPEAKER 13 :
It really is going to depend on how the tariff battle comes out, as we discussed. So if the tariffs go into effect and we’re getting 30%, 40% increases, I think he’ll feel justified that he didn’t cut rates. If the tariff battle, we get deals and we get tariffs down, then I think he’ll feel more comfortable cutting rates. That’s the key inflection point on whether he’s going to cut rates or not.
SPEAKER 15 :
So I’m assuming your thought is at the end of this month he does nothing.
SPEAKER 13 :
Right. No, not in July. He’s not going to move one way or the other because, again, we’re right in the middle of the tariff situation. And now we have an August 1st deadline. And are these things going to go up or not? And that’s not going to be known by the time of their July meeting. So I don’t think of any way he’s going to cut rates in July.
SPEAKER 15 :
All right, Jordan, one last time. How do folks find you?
SPEAKER 13 :
They can always email me, jordan at moneyanswers.com. Always glad to help you folks, Joe.
SPEAKER 15 :
It’s always a fast hour, Jordan. Thank you for your time. I appreciate it very much. All right. Thank you, John. Appreciate it.
SPEAKER 13 :
You bet.
SPEAKER 15 :
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SPEAKER 15 :
And it is Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. Thanks for tuning in today. Again, Jordan Goodman, America’s Money Answer Man. You can reach out to him and ask questions directly if you would like. And Jordan’s got all sorts of other things, too, that he can help with when it comes to, you know, what’s the best credit card to use? How do you save the most money in some of those areas? How can you get some debt paid off and so on? So he’s always got some great tips on that. If you need him directly, feel free to reach out. Question of the day. Yesterday, why do so many countries’ names change? end in stan, like Pakistan. It’s because the word means settlement, state, or place in various languages. So because in certain languages it means settlement, state, place, that’s why a lot of countries end in stan. All right, today’s impossible question of the day. Name the city that adopted the Goodyear blimp as the city’s official bird in 1983. So name the city that adopted the Goodyear blimp as the city’s official bird in 1983. And again, you can answer all of our questions of the day. Go to our social media end of things on Facebook, Rush to Reason. Very easy to sign. I don’t say this enough. You should go there. Actually like the page. Follow us. Producer Anne puts a lot of great things up on a routine basis. And you can always go there and even send in questions and so on. But the text line works really well for that as well. 307-282-22. All right. Hour 2 is up next. Don’t go anywhere. This is Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560.
SPEAKER 1 :
Bye.
SPEAKER 04 :
Yeah, we’re rich guys.
SPEAKER 06 :
Ordinary. We’re rich guys.
