Join Bill Gunderson as he navigates the complexities of today’s financial markets with insights and analysis. This episode delves into the ups and downs of the Dow and NASDAQ, the impact of global events on market trends, and the key strategies for managing portfolios amidst market volatility. With contributions from Barry Kydar, the discussion highlights the importance of finding the best stocks and navigating the financial landscape with informed foresight.
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He’s been seen on CNBC, the Fox News Channel, and the Fox Business Channel. His articles can be found on MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TheStreet.com, and many other places. He’s the author of the weekly Best Stocks Now newsletter and the inventor of the Best Stocks Now app. He’s president of Gunderson Capital Management. Here is professional money manager Bill Gunderson.
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And welcome to the Friday TGIF, thank goodness it’s Friday, edition of the Best Stocks Now show with professional money manager Bill Gunderson, president of Gunderson Capital Management. And I’m here with Barry Kydar, chartered financial analyst and certified financial planner. And we have the market off on the wrong foot again today. We’re actually up today, believe it or not. We have one huge winner today. That’s carrying the day for us. But the Dow is down 423 points. Rough week. Rough week. It’s at 45,536. Let’s not forget, we hit 50,000 not too long ago. So we’re now down about 10% off of the high. The NASDAQ is down 277 today. It’s at 21,130. Rough week for the NASDAQ. They’re both in negative territory so far this year, the Dow and the NASDAQ. It can all change in a blink of an eye, however, with good news coming out of the deal-making process in the Middle East. The S&P 500 is down 57 points. That’s 90 basis points. It’s at 6,419. The Russell 2000 is down three-quarters of a percent. Now, here’s the elephant. There’s three elephants in the room. Elephant number one is oil prices. Oil prices up 3.5% to date. $97.70 per barrel. I’m going to start drilling in my backyard. Maybe we’ve got a little oil here. I don’t know. Rare earth.
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Definitely going to hit water. You’ll hit water pretty quick.
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Maybe a dead Revolutionary War soldier and a dead… Civil War soldier, you know, or someone eaten by an alligator. We don’t know what’s down there, but crude oil, $97.77. And the other second elephant in the room is interest rates. With the 10-year hitting 4.46% today, 4.46% on inflation fears today. But the third elephant in the room is the one, the good elephant, and that’s the earnings picture. And I would say that the fourth elephant is the PE ratio. It’s got to be down around 18 right now, which is about as cheap as it’s been in a long, long time. for the S&P 500. So it’s a tinderbox right now. It’s moment by moment, and it could change in a flash. There’s definitely more threat that it will move to the upside from here than to the downside. But in the meantime, you kind of just hunker down. So welcome to today’s Best Stocks Now show with professional money manager Bill Gunderson, president of Gunderson Capital Management. And I’m here with Barry Kite, chartered financial analyst. We were talking last night with somebody about our performance so far this year. And he was looking at our positive performance while the market’s down. And he says that there are like one or two stocks that have done it. And really, I looked at it, and it’s more like five or six. We took some big profits in January on Micron, on Western Digital, on Gold, on Agnico Eagle. I mean, big profits. And so we lock those in. Those are realized gains. I just felt like it was a good time to lock in those realized gains.
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And I’m keeping some dry powder, too, on the cash and money market side.
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I would say we’re at 50%, 60% cash. And like today, I mean, the market’s pretty wonky, pretty nasty, pretty red. But we’ve got Argan. which is an infrastructure AI builder, it’s up 34% today. And, you know, we found it. And it’s in two of our portfolios. So I think we’re up a million dollars today on just that one position, which kind of puts us positive for the day. I don’t know if we’re still there. We were. But, you know, it just points out the importance of having some best stocks now. Hopefully they turn out. They don’t all turn out. But we’ve had some huge winners in the market. And Argan happens to be in both our elder growth and emerging growth. So it’s a big position here. And so that’s carrying the day for us today. Up 34%. Yes. I mean, they absolutely came in and crushed it and guided higher. So, yeah, that’s portfolio management for you. And yes, a few big winners will really, really help. And it’s finding those big winners, obviously, that is the challenge. But I just feel like, and I think I’ve proven it to myself anyways, that if you begin with a company with a good track record, especially a recent good track record, and you find it with 80% or more upside potential and a good healthy chart, it just seems to me like something like that has a good probability of outperforming Verizon or Disney or AT&T or any number of soggy stocks out there. So that’s the way we do it here. at gundersen capital manager this person also wants to uh… have a i watch my trades uh… for i don’t know several months a year maybe uh… and try to uh… recreate that you know whether it’s anthropic or uh… whether it’s uh… you know uh… grok or uh… or gemini or all four of them which would be an interesting study to do You know, enter in every buy and sell that I make and see if it comes up with some kind of pattern. But the key to it is garbage in, garbage out. You have to begin with a good stock. And I don’t know, if I asked AI right now, what’s a good stock in the market today? Well, I mean, there’s a hundred different opinions, maybe a thousand different opinions on that. I can tell you that on last Saturday in Barron’s, on the cover of Barron’s, their stock, their conviction pick was Microsoft. We put a sell article about a month before they came out with their buy, and the stock continues to hit new lows. Now, yes, granted, Barron’s is a bottom-feeding sucker. They’re looking for anything.
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Deep value.
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They’re a bottom feeder. Right. looking for stuff that’s way oversold. You know, that’s pretty much opposite of what we do. And so anyway, that’s how we feel about Microsoft. And I also, we put out an article yesterday on Micron. I feel really strong about this whole memory sector. And I don’t buy into this peak earnings, it’s only down… They’re not even close to peak earnings. They’re going to get to $98 per share from $5 last year. and this business of, oh, Google came up with something yesterday that’s going to eliminate a lot of the need for this memory. Well, I was reading through the comments, and there’s a lot of people that follow me that they know their tech. You know, we have a lot of followers in the Silicon Valley with our primetime radio show there, and Almost anybody, it seemed like the experts on the whole tech sectors really did not give much credence to that Google story. Maybe somewhere down the line, it’s kind of like the nuclear story, right? Maybe somewhere down the line, we’re not going to need coal-fired plants, and we’re not going to need gas-fired plants, and we’re going to have to turn to nuclear technology. Well, I saw today that Constellation Energy Three Mile Island will not even be back online until 2031. In the meantime, liquid natural gas is carrying the day and oil and coal and whatnot. So keep that in mind also that there is no immediate relief for this tremendous squeeze. that we have on these memory chips. So there’s a lot at play there. And we’ve been known to pick bottoms in the markets, in sectors. We’ve also been known to pick tops. I think we were pretty much near the top when we started bailing in the software sector last year. In gold. I think we called the top pretty closely in gold before it really got hammered. Well, I feel like there’s a bottom in here. Maybe we called it with our article yesterday. Now, you’re saying, Barry, we’ll have to look at the article and see where they give us credit.
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I was looking at it here, yes. What did they say? Price of publication, they did $370.02. Okay. It’s at… It’s up at 1.91% today. It’s at 362 and some change.
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We might have called pretty close to the bottom there on that Micron. And SanDisk, which is, I mean, they’re kissing cousins, those two. And then you’ve got the EWI, those two stocks also. I just feel like they’re trading at two times forward earnings. Two! We’ll be right back. And welcome back to the second quarter of today’s Best Docs Now show. I got some updated numbers on the Sarasota trip. And it is filling up. There are still some of those one-hour spots left while we’re there on April the 7th and April the 8th at the Even Hotel in Lakewood Ranch. And that will be, you know, those meetings from 7 a.m. until 7 p.m., I mean, while we’re there, we figure while we’re here, We’re going to meet with as many people as we possibly can. And, of course, I’ll be teaching a workshop on Tuesday night. It’s been a while since I taught a workshop. I’m thinking it has been. Maybe I taught one last time. I don’t remember. It’s just a purple haze right now. I remember doing one over at the Call It. What was that called? Remember that? I can’t think of the name right now. Over in Lakewood Ranch. Anyways, to reserve a spot, call Edie at 855-611-BEST. 855-611-BEST if you’re shopping online. We get a lot of emails from people saying, you know, I’m just not happy with who I’m with. Sometimes it’s a friend, too, which makes it even that much more difficult. You’ve got to weigh how much that friend is costing you. That could be a very expensive friendship when you consider compound interest over the years. But, you know, a lot of people, they come in and meet with us and size us up to see if we’re a good fit for, you know, your retirement, your accumulation phase, your distribution phase, your early retirement, or if you’re near retirement, whatever the case may be. We also get a lot of emails from new investors, Barry, and I think we’re going to start doing some classes, some online classes, now that I’ve got these junior analysts that can spread me out a little bit more. And you’re a teacher at heart. Yes, I’m a teacher at heart, and they’re learning from me. And I think they want, we’re going to have our YouTube, we’re going to fire up our YouTube channel once again. And you’ll see Barry and I, he’s got a face for radio, but you know what? I’m not for my age. No, I’m just kidding. But we can interject some charts into the show and some headlines and things like that. I used to have a YouTube channel, and they wanted to be on the YouTube channel themselves with their own little show maybe once a week with different topics. I said, I’m all for it, guys. So they’re coming along nicely so far. All right, now, what do we got going here in the markets today? As I prepared the show this morning, which is a two-hour process, by the way, I don’t take it lightly, the content that I end up using during the show. I picked out what I think is the most important stuff. For you, the listener, it was a rough day in the markets yesterday. You know, it’s all, it’s one subject. It’s what’s going on in the talks. Now, he did postpone until April 6th. Isn’t that Easter Sunday?
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I think it is. It’s the Monday after Easter. We’re not going to blast the hell out of you until Easter.
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Then we’re going to blast the hell out of you. But it was a rough day in the market yesterday. I thought that the news on Google regarding the memory stocks, I thought that was way overhyped myself. But the NASDAQ really got thumped, and that was part of that news yesterday. Gold was down 3.9% yesterday, too. Now, today, Wells Fargo is putting out a year-end target price on gold. Now, I don’t know how you do that, but they… It’s kind of tough. Technical analysis… uh… jewelry trends i really don’t know how you price a commodity like gold oils a little different uh… it seems to me a little bit more uh… you know putting a price on it seems to be easier but they’ve got a six thousand dollar price tag on gold by the end of the year if you believe wells fargo
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uh we keep seeing this trend you know we keep seeing this trend on fridays where you have uh you know no one wants to be too risk heavy going into a weekend and so this is the third friday uh since the since the you know iran war has been been been waged and uh and you likely have a bit of a sell-off again today and mondays have been kind of that you know early in the week have been kind of those bounce back days and then they can You know, continue to trend kind of back down.
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Start buying at $3.30 today, East Coast time.
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Look at Bitcoin. You see Bitcoin today at $65,000. It’s getting smashed.
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$65,000.
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It’s down 4%. Were we right about Bitcoin?
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Bill was right again. I’ve never liked it, ever. And when it got to $130,000, I saw all these people telling me just buy Bitcoin and get ready to retire. And I warned and warned them. Again, now you’re down 50%.
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Yeah, right at 50% from the high. The high was 52-week high. An all-time high was $126,000. And it’s sitting today at $65,816. Where’s all those young bucks that I met with on the NASDAQ last year, about
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13 months ago that said bitcoin was their top pick for the year 2025 well they did okay with that top pick for a while i hope they sold at 125 000 now the other debate going on is how long is the war going to last and i see articles uh don’t bet on a quick end to this current war uh I don’t see very many that are predicting a quick end to this current war. I would just say Trump has a track record. of ending things pretty quickly by really turning up the heat and the pressure. They’re weighing, the Pentagon is weighing sending 10,000 more troops to the Middle East, and that’s the other debate going on, even, you know, amongst Trump supporters. I mean, you’ve got the Tucker Carlsons of the world who were totally against this thing right from the start because Trump ran on a platform of… pretty much being a passive anti-forever wars yeah no forever wars essentially but he he he you know he made the decision on venezuela and he he made the decision to pull the trigger on this one and so that’s the other big debate and the the market is the weighing machine on a daily basis on the days when the markets down it sees no end to this conflict it’s not going to be a forever war i can promise you that That would be, I mean, that’s the last thing that he would allow is something like Afghanistan or Saddam Hussein and trying to rebuild Iraq into a democracy and all this and that. That’s not going to happen. it seems to me like sending the 10,000 troops is more of a bargaining thing. Okay, you know, it’s your choice. It’s your choice. And in the meantime, you know, you’ve got oil. And where you’re seeing this debate play out, this tug-of-war play out, is in the bond pits and in the oil pits. And it’s compressing the multiple on the NASDAQ The 10 years at 4.47, that’s brought the multiple down from 23 to 18.5, I’m guessing, today. You know, when this all began, the NASDAQ took off in 2023. It was down to 17.5. We’re almost there again. And nothing’s happened to earnings estimates. We’ll be right back. This is Bill Gunderson. Thank you for tuning in to today’s Best Stocks Now, Best Inverse Funds Now show. Now, back to the second half of the show. We’ll be right back. And welcome back here to the second half of today’s Best Docs Now show. Well, it looks like finally they’re going to clear up this jam at the airports. They worked late into the night last night, and I think they finally are getting very, very close. I think the Senate passed it. And now it’s up to the House. And Trump also signed something that would make sure that all of the TSA personnel get their full pay. So, you know, this has been a real mess. At the airports with spring break and everything. I mean, and even when we went to look at airfare to go to Sarasota. Houston was, I’m glad we went to Houston when we did.
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When we did, right? Five hour wait at TSA. I saw, I mean, I saw the, because we had just been in that terminal not long ago in that airport. And I saw parts of it where the lines coming out the door. And I mean, it was, there was one spot. It was like, I think it said 180 minutes for here. I’m thinking like, is there a roller coaster? No thanks, I’m renting a car. Do we get a roller coaster at the end? What kind of, you know, is this Disney World? Like, what are we waiting on? Yes. Hopefully that’ll get some folks moving and kind of stop the gridlock there, hopefully.
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Now, okay, here’s another play that we think is a good play right now. And this only helps. If you can believe it, Australia’s biggest LNG plants get hit with outages from a cyclone. And how much LNG was taken offline in the Middle East, especially in the United Arab Emirates, which I think they lost 20% of their capacity, that’s only going to continue to help these LNG stocks that we’ve been talking about. Some of the leaders there are the one with the symbol LNG. LNG is up 2% today on a really bad day in the market. We’ve got Devon Energy. DVN is up 1.4% on a really bad day in the market. Devon Energy, Devon is up 1.3% in a bad day. And then you have some of these construction equipment companies. We’ve done really well with Noble Corp. which is a driller. I think we’ve got a 40% gain on that little thing so far. And then there’s VG. VG had other news today. I can’t remember what the other news was, but VG is up 3.2% today. So that helps your portfolios when you have some that are bucking the trend and are up on a down day. And LNG is one of the areas of the market that, you know, I will say this too about the app. We haven’t invested in the energy sector and the oil patch in a long time. I remember we had LNG maybe a few years ago.
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It was during, yeah, we had it in that span right, you know, essentially right after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Oh, okay. Yeah. That and the fertilizer stocks. That’s when they had their heyday.
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So, I mean, in the app… I only look at the charts after I get done with the show here that are showing up on my screens. And they either show up into my screens, they have to be – momentum has to be increasing. valuation and momentum together have to be improving something, and it’s a pretty select list when I get down to it. Today it’s 265 charts that I’m going to look at out of 5,300 possibilities. But those oil and gas stocks, they started showing up in my screens way before we invaded Venezuela. And, of course, way before we invaded Iran. It was probably maybe a month before we invaded Venezuela that oil started popping up because he was kind of threatening oil. them and uh all of a sudden halliburton which is another one i mean we own halliburton the pride of one of the prides of having a good day today halliburton’s up three percent today okay and it’s hitting a new all-time high Now, last year at this time, or after April and May, after the tariff war ended, it was AI stocks. It was chip stocks. What is it this year? It’s SLB. It’s Halliburton. It’s VG. And so there’s the beauty of the app, because the app isn’t on an absolute basis. It’s on a relative basis, one against another. And I think that was part of the… call it genius that i put into the app was to make it relative okay there’s always going to be something that’s a or a plus on a relative basis against all the other stocks in the market especially as it relates to momentum there’s always going to be it it could be inverse funds it could be and usually it’s two or three sectors usually out of about 33 sectors Earlier this year, it was chips and the precious metals and oil, and that’s it. Well, obviously the chips have fallen, or the precious metals have fallen from grace, and the chips really have kind of fallen from grace for now. I think they’re going to come storming back. But really, right now, carrying the day and helping us, of course, today it’s an AI infrastructure stock that’s giving us a big boost, AGX, Argan. But also helping us a lot today are these oil and gas stocks. And, you know, I mean, that helps when you’re seeking alpha to have stocks that are delivering alpha in a very bad market. So I’m just saying that I had early on, I saw signs that the oil and gas sector now feed that to Grok and see what let what Grok spits out.
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That inverse financial hedge, if you have to, I think it’s up around 4% or 5% today.
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FAZ is up 3.7% now. It’s pulled back a little bit. I saw the former CEO of Goldman Sachs, Lloyd Blankfein, who was around in 2008. He was there. And some of these people that are commenting and saying, well, this doesn’t look like 2008, they weren’t there. They didn’t see all of the analysts on TV talking up Bear Stearns and poo-pooing the notion that the mortgages were going to go south. That’s what the experts were saying for the most part. Lehman Brothers was just fine. I’d be buying this stock all day long. That was Jim Cramer back in 08, 07, 2007. Blankfein was there. And he sees trouble ahead in this private credit markets. He says what they have not done yet, and it’s just a matter of time, is he says their balance sheets are not accurate. They need to start marking down the value of these assets If you bought a big portfolio of debt, of private debt, that’s carried as an asset on your balance sheet. You own this private debt. But what’s the real value of the underlying asset that you’re carrying on the balance sheet? There’s the crick. And that was the thing that the private REITs were doing. They weren’t marking down on a quarterly basis or on a monthly basis the real value of their underlying portfolio. And they got in big trouble for that. And as soon as they started marking down, the reality started to set in and people wanted out. When all of a sudden, because, you know, if you’re investing in private credit for income, you look at that as a pretty safe bet, right? I mean, I don’t. But the average person looks at a big pool of debt run by BlackRock or one of these big private equity firms, Carlyle Group. Apollo Group, they look at that as safe money. This is like bond money. No, not if it’s offering 10% or 11% double-digit returns. There’s the red flag, the major red flag. And right now, these people are seeing the value, like the individual that’s invested in this stuff, they’re seeing the value as what they put into it. I put in 100 grand, it’s still worth 100 grand, and I’m getting my check every month. What’s to not like? When the rubber hits the road and the you-know-what hits the fan is then they open up their statement and that 100 grand has been marked down to 90 grand. and $10,000 worth of income has been offset and then some, a full years of income has been wiped out by marking down the value of the debt. And of course, the issuers of this stuff were claiming, oh, we’re not seeing any defaults yet. They seem to be just fine. Well, Blankfein disagrees. I disagree. And the ones that seem to be touting that are the ones that are up to their eyeballs in this stuff, trying to raise more money and creating more demand so they can pay off the early investors in this stuff. And now you’re going to have a glamorized Ponzi scheme to some extent if that’s what they’re trying to accomplish. Okay, we’ve got a few stocks. I want to talk about Argan. Why is it up 35% today? That and more when we come back.
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White bird in a golden cage On a winter’s day You gotta go where you wanna go and do
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Thank you.
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Some huge IPOs coming up this year. Beginning the parade of huge IPOs will be Elon Musk and SpaceX. And I saw Wedbush was making the argument that he eventually will combine SpaceX with Tesla. You’re talking like a $3 trillion company or something if he does that, but we’ll just have to see. Then, of course, you’ve got Anthropic is in a race with OpenAI. These are both big private companies, probably the best private companies in the world. I think they’re way overpriced myself. I certainly wouldn’t be putting in new investments into these companies at the level they’re being priced at now. On Yahoo Finance, they actually have a little screen of where these private companies are valued at. Have you ever seen that, Mary, on Yahoo?
SPEAKER 05 :
No, that’s the one thing about Yahoo. You know what? The one thing that’s lasted forever for Yahoo was Yahoo Finance. Everything else, right? It’s not used much anymore, but I still do use Yahoo Finance. I’ll take a look at that. That’s about the only thing left of Yahoo.
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So I’m just looking at this today. It’s right on their markets page. SpaceX is currently valued at $1.42 trillion. OpenAI, $850 billion. Anthropic, way down the line at $380 billion. And then you’ve got Stripe at $175 billion. Databricks at $135 billion. And Dural at $84 billion. Then you step way down to RAMP. which is $32 billion, and Cerebros, which is $26 billion. And that’s the private companies. And how do they value these? Well, they look at the latest round of funding and how much people had to pay to buy into it as a private company. I just think these people that are getting into it now are paying astronomical prices for these companies.
SPEAKER 05 :
I mean, they’re literally serving as the liquidity source for employees and other people who want to go ahead and sell their shares. Sure, you’re the ATM machine. They’re providing a service is what I think is funny about it. And potentially paying too much and also providing the liquidity. I think they are.
SPEAKER 06 :
Okay, now let’s take a look at our stock of the day here, which is Argan AGX. Let me get to their earnings report, which was just knock it out of the park. Okay, where is Argan located? What does Argan do for a living? It’s kind of a boring company, really. But it’s an infrastructure company in this, you know, red-hot data center. And their earnings growth has been phenomenal over the last five years, 56% per year. We like that kind of growth at Gundersen Capital when it comes at a reasonable price, and it was a very reasonable price when we got into it. Now it’s a $5.7 billion, so this is tiny.
SPEAKER 05 :
And they get a $2.9 billion backlog in terms of revenues. And so, as you say all the time, stocks follow earnings. And so, if you’ve got a $2.9 billion backlog, then your company should probably be worth a little bit more. And, I mean, their backlog is, what, over 60% of the value of the company at this point. Yeah.
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They are in Arlington, Virginia. They provide engineering, procurement, and construction services for power… industrial and telecom industries now we’re writing a story on a on a one just like it a little bit smaller i’ll let you know when that story is out probably monday or tuesday it’s in the almost does the same exact thing and it really flies under the radar and we own it already in our uh emerging growth port oh we might own it yeah no just the emerging growth But Argan comes in with just a monster of a quarter here. We’ve got a huge earnings beat. If I go back to this story here, Argan surges. It was 10% this morning. Now it’s up 30%. Argan reported a strong Q4 and 2026 results. The stock has been moving in an upward direction, trading near 492. They beat their revenue estimate big time, and they beat their earnings estimate. Now, here’s what the app does. was saying about it, and this is what pointed us in that direction. The performance grade of the stock is an A+. It’s up 226% over the last 12 months. Over the last three years, it’s averaged a return of 121% per year. Over the last five years, 55% per year. And if you look over the last 10 years, it’s averaged 31.5% per year. And where’s Disney? Minus one or something like that. So when I grade on the curve and compare it against all the other stocks out there, it gets an A-plus performance grade. So that’s a good start. But that’s looking backwards. Valuation looks forward. And I had a pretty conservative growth rate of 14%. I think it could probably be moved a little bit higher, maybe 16% or so. But even at 14%, I had 80% upside potential as of yesterday. So it met our performance criteria with an A+, and it met our valuation criteria of 80% or more upside potential. By contrast, Microsoft has 45% or 50, somewhere in there, upside potential, which is an F. This company has 80%, which is a B. You get up around 100%, then you’re looking at A, upside potential and valuation. And it’s had a very solid chart and is breaking out to new all-time highs today. with that 30 percent move and we’re out of time it could be an interesting weekend who knows i mean the market plays it safe on friday they run for the hills they don’t want to have anything on any chips on the table over the weekend well that can cut both ways you may get good news over the weekend i still think that the the the the probabilities the prediction markets here at our firm I don’t think I would be betting for a sustained war and sustained high elevated oil prices for a long, long time. I don’t think the probability of that happening is very good, but that’s just me. That’s why they call it a market. To get the newsletter, I’ll be working on it today and tomorrow, 855-611-BEST, to make an appointment with us about money management. 855-611-BEST or GundersonCapital.com.
SPEAKER 03 :
Bill Gunderson or clients of Gunderson Capital Management may have long or short positions in stocks mentioned during the show. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Getterson Capital Management is a fee-based registered investment advisory firm. All accounts are held at Charles Schwab. Schwab is a member of SIPC and FINRA.
