In this enlightening episode of Best Stocks Now, Bill Gundersen shares substantial insights on the latest market trends. AI stocks are moving towards infrastructure angles, while the undercurrents in the semiconductor sector reveal emerging threats and opportunities for investors. The conversation also explores recent shifts in global energy demands, with attention to fracking developments and rising oil prices. Gundersen delves into the impact of interest rate forecasts and inflation predictions on various market sectors, guiding listeners through the complex web of economic indicators that shape investment decisions.
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He’s been seen on CNBC, the Fox News Channel, and the Fox Business Channel. His articles can be found on MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TheStreet.com, and many other places. He’s the author of the weekly Best Stocks Now newsletter and the inventor of the Best Stocks Now app. He’s president of Gundersen Capital Management. Here is professional money manager Bill Gundersen.
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And welcome to the Friday, it’s the Friday, November 22nd edition of the Best Talks Now show with professional money manager Bill Gunderson, president of Gunderson Capital Management. I’m here with Barry Kite, our chartered financial analyst, and we have a mixed start coming out of the gate this morning with the Dow right now in the lead. The Dow is up 269 points right now. That works out to about 61 basis points. The NASDAQ, on the other hand, is dead flat the day after NVIDIA’s earnings, or two days after NVIDIA’s earnings released. The NASDAQ, however, is very close to 19,000 once again. It’s at 18,968. I saw a lot of strength yesterday in the cloud stocks, the software cloud stocks. The S&P 500 is up a quarter of a percent. It’s up 15 points today. The small caps are having another good day. They’ve done pretty well since the Trump election. The Russell 2000 up 21 points. The 2385, we have the bond market pretty quiet today. 4.41% is where the 10-year’s at right now. Crude oil jumping on increased demand. turmoil there between russia and ukraine it’s at 70.65 gold’s also moving up to 2700 once again and the crypto market bitcoin new high today 97.9 721 so welcome to today’s best stocks now show with professional money manager bill gunderson this is my 25th year doing a Daily show Monday through Friday, and also writing my newsletter, which will come out tomorrow, and also being a professional money manager. Well, let’s pick up where we left off yesterday. That’s usually a good place to start. You know, by the end of the day, NVIDIA was all over the map. And it could be, so NVIDIA ended up a little bit yesterday. I think it was up a third of a percent, something like that, not a lot. And it could be that, you know, the market has kind of moved on a little bit from NVIDIA, although I believe NVIDIA is still a large cap growth stock that should be a core holding. But I’ve seen, Barry, the action in AI move away from Microsoft, move away from Google, move away from NVIDIA, move away from ASM lithography, and move into the power providers and the big warehouses that house all of these servers. I’ve seen it move in that direction. So even though NVIDIA may have been flat yesterday, there was tremendous action in Vistra Energy, for instance, Constellation Energy, which is another one. The small nuclear stocks had a huge day yesterday, like SMR, which is NuScale. Oklo had… a big day. I would just call those the infrastructure stocks. Is that a fair statement? The AI infrastructure stock seemed to be where the action has moved for now.
SPEAKER 03 :
Yeah. And the, you know, in terms of long duration, right, the, you know, of course, nvidia being the chip play right as you know that’s happening they’re selling those chips and installing those chips on a daily basis on the you know on the nuclear power front right obviously that’s something that takes uh you know was going to going to take longer to develop and is going to be you know is why those stocks have a higher pe and why they’re more long duration right versus um you know versus some of the other ones but you know vistra And Constellation Energy, their energy capacity is already here. It’s just how much can they ramp it up going forward?
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Their business is going to increase significantly along with a lot of other ones. And I would also say that there’s general weakness in the semiconductor sector itself. NVIDIA is the only one in there that’s behaving well at all. AMD looks terrible. Broadcom looks terrible. Applied Materials looks terrible. Intel has been thrashed, kicked out of the Dow. ASM lithography does not look good at all because of the restrictions that have been placed on it, the Chinese restrictions. So it just seems like the hot money, maybe the Japanese carry trade, which that is back on, by the way. Japan’s interest rates have plunged once again, and that carry trade seems to be going now to the infrastructure, and more specifically for me, to the nuclear, the energy providers, which right now seem to be centered around nuclear energy. And there’s still pretty good action in Arisa Networks. It still looks very, very strong. So that’s just my take. I think AI is still a very viable sector, no question about it. But I’ve just seen Microsoft, Google. Of course, Google has an extra problem now. and NVIDIA really cool off and come to kind of a standstill. And I think big tech has come to a standstill for now. I think the shot that was fired across the bow yesterday of Google, and it was more than a shot. It was a missile fired at Google. I think that’s also got Facebook, which is now meta. I think it’s got Microsoft. And I think it’s got Apple. Of course, Apple’s got troubles of their own. I think it’s really cool that that dropped. Even Amazon quieted down here recently. So anyways, it’s like I say, the market, every day you wake up, it’s not like it changes from day to day. But these trends in the market, look, just like fishing, if you live on a big body of water like I do, The fish move all over the place. And, you know, for a while they’ll be parked in one area of the waterways, and another time they’ll be parked in another area. And the market’s no different. It does move around. Now, some people will take the middle of the road course. Well, I’m just going to buy some core stocks. And when they, when they move into my neck of the woods, these two stocks will, uh, uh, go do well when they move out and move to another one, I’ll have another, so a big diversified portfolio, which holds the big tech and other stocks and other industries. I would say right now, though, since the Trump election, the, the, the hottest, the body of water out there in the market right now is energy. It’s oil and gas. It’s the frackers. It’s the liquid natural gas and nuclear.
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You need it to mine Bitcoin, too.
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Well, let’s not leave out Bitcoin. Now, I finally bought some Bitcoin, so that will bring the top. That will put the top in at Bitcoin. I put money into not for my clients. I can’t do that with a clear conscience. I really can’t. because I feel like it just trades on, you know, who’s going to be the last sucker. But anyways, I did buy a little bit in one of the ETFs. But Bitcoin looks like it’s inevitable, but it’s going to hit 100,000. And on that subject of Bitcoin, that stock MicroStrategy, I saw that a big short seller, Andrew, left. moved in and took a big short position in MicroStrategy, which is probably the hottest stock in the market right now. What is that stock built on? Owning Bitcoin.
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And leverage play.
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I mean, I think they have other businesses, but the run in the stock has been totally from Bitcoin. Michael Saylor, the CEO there. So anyways, that’s kind of my approach right now to AI. The oil markets have a new profound sentiment challenge. You know, Russia fired back an ICBM missile and hit Ukraine with it. Now, ICBM missiles are designed to carry nuclear warheads. This one doesn’t seem to have a nuclear warhead, but I think that’s a shot over the bow. If you keep firing these U.S.-made long-range missiles at us, we’re going to hit you with the next ICBM might have a nuclear warhead on it. So that’s got oil excited again. Oil’s over $70 a barrel. And, of course, natural gas yesterday hit a one-year high and is up 20% over the last five days. So I think there’s some huge plays there in the energy patch. We’ve been adding some frackers, which, you know, they didn’t do so well when Harris was ahead in the polls. And now, of course, with the Trump administration, you would think that it’s obviously a more Oil and gas, drill, baby, drill friendly. In fact, the new energy secretary is the CEO of Liberty Energy, one of the leading fractors out there. Okay, we’ve got a lot to talk about on this Friday. This is the Best Docs Now show. This is Bill Dutterson at Barry Kite.
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They call me the freak. I keep low.
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And welcome back here to the second quarter of today’s Best Stocks Now show.
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The other factor here, I just want to finish up with my thoughts here on energy and the oil patch. The threat is that Ukraine could target, now that they have these guided missiles that we’ve provided them, they could target Russia’s infrastructure, oil infrastructure. And don’t forget that Iran’s infrastructure is also still under threat, possible threat from Israel. So you’ve got oil back to $70 per barrel. Now, the only way you’re going to offset that One of the reasons why oil hasn’t gone up higher is weakness in China. China continues to have a very weak economy. The Chinese market is getting hit hard again today. And also, the drilling that’s taking place here in the U.S. also keeps oil prices from going much higher. Okay, now, on the nuclear front, nuclear energy front, which… Because all of a sudden, I mean, I don’t know what the day one was. I think probably about a year ago when the Biden administration took nuclear energy off of the no-no, you know, brown energy, you know, polluting carbon-producing energy list and put it on the renewable energy list. That was probably the first shot. And then the real big one came when Microsoft made the deal with Constellation Energy, which is still up in the air. And that really was the shot to talk about. Yes, on Three Mile Island, which, you know, infamous Three Mile Island, where you had the big meltdown many years ago. And now to recommission that thing, and that was all part of this rebirth, of nuclear energy, and Europe, France, especially warming up to nuclear energy once again. Well, Talon Energy rallied again yesterday, TLN, which is part of Three Mile Island. They’re the old PPL, which I believe is Pittsburgh Power and Light, or Pennsylvania Power and Light. which went bankrupt. They had to declare bankruptcy, and they emerged as Talen Energy. Talen, T-A-L-E-N. They are requesting FERC, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, to rehear its case for supplying more power to an Amazon data center connected to its Susquehanna nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania. Now, I Looks like it will be the Trump administration that ends up, you know, deciding on whether Talon can make a private deal like this with Amazon, which burns a little power. I wonder how much power those, you know, their AWS. And, of course, Amazon wants to become a greener company, and they would definitely, you know, score a lot of green points with environmentalists if they got all their their data centers, their warehouses off of coal-burning electric power plants and onto nuclear or solar and wind, which I don’t think we’ll be able to keep up with the demand. But anyways, earlier this month, FERC struck down Talon’s interconnection deal to increase the capacity of Amazon’s data center. And so that one is still hanging out there. And that, you know, the fact that they’re going to revisit it, that brought Vistra up. Vistra was up 7.7% yesterday. And Constellation Energy was up 6.9% yesterday. Those seem to be the major players right now in the big utility space. And then, of course, you have a lot of smaller nuclear players. Okay, well, it’s going to be prediction time for the markets as we are heading into the last five weeks, believe it or not, of the year.
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Outlook 2020.
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Yeah, I mean, it’s going to end up being a pretty good year on the market, which we predicted it would be. You’ve got CFRA raising their target price to $65.85. They do see heightened volatility. Well, CFRA has a chief investment strategist, Sam Stovall. He’s been around for a long time. He worked for S&P, and now he works for them. But he has his target price for the end of next year at $65.85. I will be updating mine in the newsletter this week. And, of course, we’re offering now even more than the newsletters. You get four weeks of the client’s. slash live trading newsletter, and you get the emails that I send out during the day with the live trading, and you get full use of the Best Stocks Now app for one month. So that offer is still on the table. I don’t know how long I’m going to keep doing it, but you can sign up at GundersenCapital.com to begin your four-week trial as we get ready to turn the page on the new year. Wells Fargo, they’ve got a bunch of new target prices. They see GDP growing. They raised it to 2.5% next year from 2.3%. This is the one that worries me, though. They raised their inflation projection very from 3% to 3.3% next year. In other words, they think inflation has bottomed and it has upside risk next year. Which would keep interest rates high.
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Yeah, you keep hearing about the tariffs, right? What kind of effect a potential tariff will have, right? I mean, who knows? We may not get any tariffs, right? I mean, we don’t know. So we’ll see how it rolls out.
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Well, to begin, tariffs, it’s a jawbone. To try to jawbone other companies to cooperate or you’ll be hit. It’s a threat right now, the threat of tariffs. It’s a weapon. I mean, tariffs can be weaponized, obviously. But they do have inflation at 3.3, which I was surprised to see. In fact, they have global inflation at 3.3, which is pretty hot next year. They’re projecting 4.5 to 5 on interest rates. Okay, that’s important. If you have interest rate-sensitive investments, such as bond funds, real estate investment trusts, mortgage REITs, anything that’s interest rate sensitive, if they’re right, Wells Fargo, that doesn’t bode well for interest rate sensitive home builders, et cetera, because they’re projecting four and a half to five next year. And I do know that there’s… I mean, autos, that’s been a big… Now, in our neck of the woods, you’d want to invest in Money Man Pawn. Is that it? The guy that owns all the pawn shops here in Charleston. He’s one of the richest guys I know in our neck of the woods. And I do know that the 30-year mortgage is back above 7% right now. So that’s death for mortgage agents trying to do refis and whatnot. A lot of them have turned to doing reverse mortgages right now to try to drum up some business in a tough industry. Wells Fargo also upped their earnings next year to 275 from 270. So still pretty bullish, I would say, is Wells Fargo. Now, we’ve got some individual stocks to talk about when we come back. This is Bill Gunderson. Thank you for tuning in to today’s Best Stocks Now, Best Inverse Funds Now show. I put several hours of research in during the wee hours of the morning each day to bring you the very best cutting-edge stories that I can. To get two free weeks of my newsletter, go to GundersonCapital.com. To talk to us about our fee-based only money management services, call us at 855-611-BEST. Now, back to the second half of the show.
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And welcome back here to the second half of today’s Best Thoughts Now show.
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Well, the markets remained about the same since we began the show. You’ve got the Dow up almost 200 points, S&P’s up a few points. The NASDAQ is basically, well, now the NASDAQ is down 50 points or a quarter of a percent. We’ll see what happens, where it all ends up by the end of the day. But we’ve had a pretty good week overall, I think, in the market. I’ve certainly seen a heck of a lot of good stock charts. I sent out a list on Wednesday to all of our followers, subscribers, et cetera, on the best charts. that I see in the market right now. It’s about 35 different ones. A couple of them we’re going to talk about here today. One is one of the best stocks that I’ve ever owned in my entire life. The problem is it trades so thinly. It’s very hard for an institutional investor like myself to buy it for my clients. But I will talk about it today. It’s being added to the S&P 500s. And I’m just surprised that it doesn’t trade more shares than it does. Well, in the meantime.
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Maybe it will now. Maybe it will now that it’s in the S&P.
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Maybe it will trade more when I mention it. I’m sure others might be on to it. OpenAI has reportedly considered launching its own web browser to challenge Google Chrome. Well, I mean, that would be good for Microsoft, obviously, because Microsoft, has open AI, a big investment in open AI. I don’t know how that works exactly. But Google Chrome does dominate the search space for the last has dominated for the last 10 years. Microsoft has tried to cut into that, that space. But I haven’t been too successful at it so far. So anyways, they are looking at trying to compete with Google. OpenAI is by having their own web browser. MicroStrategy thinks after Citron Research shorts the overheated stock, I’d call it the stock of the year. Okay, I’m just going to look up how well it’s done since the beginning of the year. It’s a stock that is built on Bitcoin. Let’s see here. Take a look at how it’s done year to date. And MicroStrategy has been around for a long time. They weren’t always a Bitcoin stock. There was a time when they actually had software products. They were a software, kind of a cloud stock, I would say. And now, you know, Michael Saylor has focused the business model on buying Bitcoin. MicroStrategy is up, over the last 12 months, 681%. The only stock that’s done better, I think, is maybe our app, AppLove and APP. But now you’ve got a short report out there. I’d be afraid to short the stock myself just because of the momentum it has.
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Right. That’s like shorting GameStop during the meme craze. It can turn you insolvent real quick.
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Or standing on the railroad tracks by yourself and trying to stop a freight train, you know. Now, he did murder the stock yesterday. I don’t know if he closed his position. The stock is up 6.5%. That takes a lot of guts to short a stock like that. Good luck to him on that. Okay. Now, the company joining the S&P 500. Is Texas Pacific… T P L. Okay. I followed this thing for a long, long time. Uh, I own it personally. It’s out of Dallas, Texas. Okay. Uh, they sell, they lease, they manage land in the U S and they also retain the oil and gas royalties. It’s a little bit like a REIT. But it’s not a REIT, okay? It’s a stock. And I don’t even believe that it pays a dividend. Yes, it does. It pays a tiny little dividend of 30 basis points. So, for instance, today the stock, it’s actually traded pretty heavily today, 167,000 shares today. But its average daily volume is only 100,000 shares. Maybe it’s going to become more liquid and give me a chance to buy it for the clients. It’s a $12.8 billion market cap company. Now, the returns over the years have been phenomenal. You can look it up in the beststocksnowapp.com. If you’re one of the trial subscribers right now or if you are a subscriber to the app, TPL over the last 10 years has delivered an average return of 42%. Where’s our guys on seeking alpha, right? Instead of the 12, 13 point yield and losing your principal, this one has gone up. 98% of its gains, 99% have been capital appreciation, owning these properties that have the oil rights on them. Over the last five years, it’s delivered 48% per year. Over the last three years, it’s delivered 56% per year. And over the last 12 months or year to date, it’s up 194%. It was down last year 32% because of kind of a tough year for oil and energy stocks. But, I mean, talk about a freight train. This is the micro strategy in the energy sector. They’re going to make $17. They made $17 a share last year. They’re going to make $20 this year. And they’re expected to make $22 per share next year. This stock was trading at 150 back about seven, six, seven years ago. Today it’s at 1,654. It’s up another 9.2% today. I own it in my incubator, my personal incubator account, which I also share now with our live traders. And what can I say? It’s being added to the S&P 500. It’s only $12 billion. I’m kind of surprised. But they needed an oil stock, and with Marathon Oil being bought out by ConocoPhillips, they’ve chosen Texas Pacific Land. That’s going to make it a lot more liquid, too, Barry, with it being in the S&P 500 range.
SPEAKER 03 :
Yeah, I mean, any time that someone buys, say, SPY or anybody sells an index fund, right, they’re going to now be creating volume in that security.
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So there’s going to be a lot more liquidity in the stock. Another interesting factoid. The two top mutual funds, I also, in my app, I have a lot of mutual funds because, you know, that gives us a general idea of where the action in the market is and where the leading mutual funds are. The two top mutual funds in my app are Kinetics Paradigm. One is like the A shares and one is like the I shares or something like that. And what they have in common, the mutual fund is, Their biggest position, and then it’s about 70% or 80% of the entire mutual fund, is this Texas Pacific and CPL. So, you know, here they are, the number one mutual fund, and you think, hey, that’s a great stock picker, which he is. I mean, give him credit. If you have 70%, 80% of your fund in one of the greatest stocks over the last decade, you can’t knock that. But it throws it way out of kilter. You know, nothing can even touch the returns of Kinetics Paradigm because of this position that they have in Texas Pacific land. Okay, another one that I’m going to bring up. The pipeline stocks have just been on fire. I hate to say they’re exploding, but that’s what they’re doing. Look at DT Midstream, okay, which is DTM. DTM is hitting new all-time highs. It’s out of Detroit, Michigan. We missed our window of time to go to Bloomington.
SPEAKER 03 :
Yeah, the election kind of messed us up for a couple of trips.
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Now it’s like 18 degrees or something. I can do it. I’m okay. I’ve got a warm jacket. DT Midstream is just going bonkers right now. And it’s hiked to a buy at Citigroup. And there’s another one there. I can’t think of it. Well, Energy Transfer, which is ET, phone home. ET is going bonkers right now. What do they have in common? They’re pipeline stocks. And obviously, I think that’s based on the Trump trade. I mean, he’s going to be favorable to building infrastructure and pipelines. Yeah, look at KMI. That’s hard. I hear the music. We will be back for the final segment of the show. I’ve got a few more stocks to talk about. This is the Best Stocks Now show. And welcome back here to the final segment of today’s Best Docs Now show. Well, the other big controversy, I suppose, is this compounding drugs with the weight loss, GLP-1s. it’s kind of still up in the air, to be honest with you. They ruled at one point that there was an official shortage. Well, that’s been the case. There’s a shortage. It’s hard to get these drugs, which has allowed a crack in the door for these compounders to come in. And probably the best proxy for that is the stock HIMS and HERS Health. HIMS, okay? Right. And HIMS vacillates up and down, right, along with this story. And when they declared, took away the shortage status, it clobbered HIMS and HERS. And Lilly started to take off again, all right? And then the compounders got together. I think they did it in the state of Texas and filed the suit there. And they say there’s still a shortage, and they wanted it reinstated as a shortage. And it’s been flowing.
SPEAKER 03 :
I mean, it’s been flowing around here. You know how we talk to boots on the ground, talking to folks around here, and the prescription stopped around here, and then now it’s available again at the compounding.
SPEAKER 04 :
that got a letter from a compounder saying, we don’t think we’ll be able to supply this to you in the future. Got it. So, I mean, it’s inevitable at some point in time the compounders are going to be in big trouble. That’s not a sustainable thing. Now, you had one of them go back to an early version.
SPEAKER 03 :
Yeah, a generic one, basically, now, because it’s the GLP-1, the one, right?
SPEAKER 04 :
Yeah, GLP-1 or something. So, you know, even that would be hard to stand up, I would think, in court. So I think eventually Lilly wins out. And, I mean, it just seems like it’s a matter of time. In the meantime, Lilly had a good day, I think, on Wednesday. It came down yesterday. It’s up a little bit. I just feel like, you know, why sell Lilly? It’s silly to sell Lilly. Maybe we should write an article. Selling Lilly would be silly. Silly with L-L-L. Billy said Lilly would be silly.
SPEAKER 03 :
Capital L-L-Y on the back end? That’s a good title.
SPEAKER 04 :
I mean, they are still making so much money off of this drug. Now, okay, there’s three initials there, RFK, that could be a problem for the drug. But I don’t know how RFK can’t see the benefits that come from All your other health matters if you just lose the weight. And what we were doing to lose the weight, counting calories, blah, blah, blah, all the different things we try, nothing has really worked. You know, over 50% of Americans now qualify for an obesity drug. And Lilly has the obesity drug. The big competitor is Novo Nordisk, which will go to you. I remain a bull on Lilly. I’m just being patient with it. I did cut my exposure to it somewhat. And got rid of NVO. I got rid of NVO. It just has too much. Well, it had a bad chart, okay? The chart is horrible. It lost all of its momentum. And domiciled in Europe, which it has its own problems. Exactly. Okay, so anyways, that’s how we’ve chosen to do all this. Now, a couple of hot retailers today, Gap Stores. I have a hard time with a retail stock like Gap Stores, but apparently they’re taking on Gap. They changed their symbol, didn’t they, to Gap? Okay, they’re taking on Lululemon. They have a brand, I think it’s called Athleta, Athleta, Athleta. And have had it for a while. Yeah. Well, I guess they’re scoring some points with it, some big gains. And Gap stores, even though it hasn’t done a whole lot, you’re familiar with all. Gap has a lot of different brands that could trade on their own as publicly traded companies. But Gap is up 7.5%. They reported earnings. I don’t get too excited about that. And then another one that people have been bringing to my attention, I finally put two and two together. Kindrel, Kindrel, KD, it was spun off by IBM in 2021. And, you know, Kindrel is actually doing better than IBM right now. Sometimes these spinoffs, look at GE. I mean, GE spun off the energy division. of their, you know, GE Vernova, and that thing has really taken off. And IBM has brought up Kindle.
SPEAKER 03 :
And their aerospace piece, right?
SPEAKER 04 :
Exactly. And Kindle is kind of an infrastructure play. Maybe it plays into this AI and the infrastructure that’s needed for AI. But Kindle was up big time yesterday, KD. I’ve added it to my app. And someone asked me, do you have the speculative stocks that you talked about? Yes, they’re in the app. Of course they’re in the app. That’s all you’ve got to do is one of the screens is you can press on conservative growth, dividend growth, and down at the end of the chain, the food chain is speculative. And you can press on speculative and see the top-ranked speculative stocks. I have them grouped in the app so that you can do a lot of different sorts. Small caps, best small caps now, best energy stocks now, best large caps now. That’s the beauty of the app, which makes it very potent and very powerful to sift through a large ocean and try to narrow it down to, what you’re looking for. All right, well, this has been another busy week in the market. Earnings season is pretty much done. I’ll be updating my target price in the S&P 500. I’ve got all kinds of notes to share with you from this past week in this week’s newsletter. That’s the client live trading version, and we still have the four-week trial open for for you to get in and get an education on the stock market for four weeks. Go to GundersenCapital.com. That’s GundersenCapital.com. Have a great day. Have a great weekend, everybody.
SPEAKER 01 :
This show is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Bill Gunderson or clients of Gunderson Capital Management may have long or short positions in stocks mentioned during the show. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Gunderson Capital Management is a fee-based registered investment advisory firm. All accounts are held at Charles Schwab. Schwab is a member of SIBC and FINRA.