John Rush kicks off Hour 2 with guest Jim Paff from the Conservative Caucus to unpack what could be one of the most significant foreign policy moves in modern history: Donald Trump’s brokered Hamas deal. Jim argues this could rival past Nobel Peace Prize–level negotiations, crediting Trump’s leadership and Abraham Accords groundwork. John and Jim push back on the “warmonger” narrative, portraying Trump as a “peace through strength” president.
The conversation shifts to Trump’s economic prowess compared to Ronald Reagan, emphasizing his unique blend of theory and practice as a businessman-president. They break down how this affects the ongoing government
SPEAKER 13 :
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SPEAKER 08 :
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SPEAKER 02 :
Are you crazy? Am I? Or am I so sane that you just blew your mind?
SPEAKER 12 :
It’s Rush to Reason with your host, John Rush, presented by Cub Creek Heating and Air Conditioning.
SPEAKER 06 :
All right, Hour 2, Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. Jim Paff joining us now, conservative caucus. Jim, how are you? I’m doing well. How are you doing, John? I’m doing very well. All right, lots going on, a lot to talk about. I guess first things first, let’s talk about the Hamas deal that Trump is working on.
SPEAKER 03 :
Well, I have to tell you, this is going to go down as one of the most historic things that any president has ever done. And, you know, it’s hard, I know, for people that don’t like Donald Trump to hear someone saying like that. Actually, I’m already hearing and interviews people on all sides of the aisle talking about the actual enormity of of this thing. If this goes through, if we have the release of hostages next week, it’s going to be one of the most amazing efforts at international negotiations that we’ve ever seen.
SPEAKER 06 :
Well, and I read an article, and I put it in my notes for you today, there’s those out there, of course, saying even some not-so-right-leaning organizations talking about, you know, this is Nobel Peace Prize stuff, and I don’t think they’re wrong in saying that.
SPEAKER 03 :
Well, you did have John Fetterman saying that now he wouldn’t say it on this one, which he should have. But he did say if he also pulls off the Ukraine thing, then he’ll be on the front of the train to work towards getting him a Nobel Peace Prize. Listen, I think it is Nobel Peace Prize worthy. And I know it’s not just his efforts. There are a lot of people involved with this. But he’s the ringleader, Jim. It would not go forward without him being the lead in this charge.
SPEAKER 06 :
Well, I think I’d even go as far as to say without him in charge, I mean, I think it’s a stalemate. If you don’t have somebody like Trump willing to say, listen, guys, come on, knuckleheads, we’ve got to have some conversation here. You guys cannot continue to go down the path you’re going. It’s going to end in ruin for both of you. We’ve got to get some things taken care of here. It takes a Donald Trump to make that happen, Jim.
SPEAKER 03 :
Well, yeah, no, this would not be happening without Donald Trump. He does have a great team of people, but there really has not been a president in modern history, maybe other than Ronald Reagan, who’s ever thought this way about how we get to something good. And it’s just it’s breathtaking. It’s truly breathtaking.
SPEAKER 06 :
Well, and it flies in the face of those that say he’s a warmonger and all he wants is war and he wants this and he wants that. And I always laugh when that is said, Jim, because when it comes to Donald Trump, I do know him. There’s a lot of things about Donald Trump he and I may not agree upon. But the one thing that I agree with him on and I feel confident that he feels the same way I do. We want less war, not more.
SPEAKER 03 :
There is no doubt he is a peace president. And he balances it perfect. He will use American force in certain areas when it’s absolutely fundamentally necessary, and I think he does try to stay within constitutional bounds. That’s been one of the big frustrations with presidents on both sides of the aisle since Ronald Reagan. constantly wanting to go to war, and it’s just been absolutely crazy. Donald Trump’s not that kind of person, but he does understand peace through strength in a real way, but he’s always seeking peace. He never backs off from going to peace. That is the number one goal of everything that he’s doing, and the way this deal played out is part of it, and don’t forget, This is a very long effort in a sense. The Gulf War has only been going on for two years. But if the Abraham Accords efforts had not been taking place during the first administration, I also think we would not be getting to this deal because he built that relationship with the Arab states in a way that this could come to fruition in the manner it has.
SPEAKER 06 :
And to your point, Jim, I think the other thing that Donald Trump’s very good at is, while a lot of people would accuse him of starting wars, no, he uses the strength that we have. And, you know, you look at Iran, for example. He uses the strengths that we have in a way that tells the other side, you know what, F-A-F-O. You know what, if you’re going to go down this path, there’s going to be consequences. And let me just show you just a teeny bit of how this works. And, again, that’s where that strength comes in, Jim.
SPEAKER 03 :
Oh, absolutely. Absolutely. And he actually, he also gets criticism a lot from people for supposedly not being very smart or whatever.
SPEAKER 06 :
By the way, those are stupid people to say that, Jim.
SPEAKER 03 :
They really are stupid people. They have no sense of the guy. I mean, he may not use all the beautiful language about this or that thing, but he actually has a very good perspective. on world history, not just recent world history, but more broadly, and then he acts on it in a way that you get results like this. Because he does have a balance of that understanding plus the current realities and how to put that all together as he’s making these happen.
SPEAKER 06 :
One of the things that he’s extremely smart on, Jim, let’s talk about the shutdown, because economically speaking, I think I can go as far as to say this, and I think I would be correct. A, I don’t think there’s ever been a president, maybe got to go way back in time, that understands economics the way President Trump does. And I mean this even over the Ronald Reagans of the world. No one understands the economy and money like Donald Trump does. So let’s talk about that in relation to the shutdown.
SPEAKER 03 :
Well, first of all, I would put him on par with Ronald Reagan. Ronald Reagan understood economic theory very, very well. Yeah, but really quick, Jim.
SPEAKER 06 :
But really quick, here’s the difference. He understood the theory. Donald Trump knows it in practice because he’s done it.
SPEAKER 03 :
Ronald Reagan never had it. That’s right. That’s what I was about to say. He has that extra push that he’s had to work at both nationally and internationally, and he knows a lot of the players, and that also is helpful beyond just the mere knowledge of them. So you get economic policy the way he’s doing it because of his deep understanding of both the principles and the practice. And that sometimes rankles your standard Austrian economics libertarians. By the way, I count myself as one of those, but I’m in support of what he’s doing. But it rankles them because they get too bound up in the theory. You have to, in practice, I mean, the political reality is we’re not going to ever get all that we want. So if you’re not, how can you use the practical realities as a way to get as far as you can? And Donald Trump does that supremely well. Plus, you know, he really is a dealmaker. I mean, that is a very key statement. capability that frankly, probably no president, certainly no modern president has ever had, because it’s a real way to, you know, take the situation, know what your principles are, know what you’re trying to get to, but really to press the end of that deal. where it needs to go and to make it come together, because this is a human endeavor. As I’ve always said, I’ve said on your show before, this politics thing will be easy if I didn’t have to deal with people. Well, Trump knows how to deal with people. And that that deal making capability comes in in great. It brings great positive and effective now all the time.
SPEAKER 06 :
All right. So how long do you think the shutdown lasts, by the way?
SPEAKER 03 :
I think we’ve got a few more weeks of it probably because Democrats haven’t yet figured out that they’re losing this. And the other reason it will continue on is because Donald Trump is driving how Republicans respond to this. This is another thing. We just talked about this peace deal. Well, Republicans in Congress have already caved. if Donald Trump wasn’t there to give them strength. This is what I’m so excited about in this. It’s not that I love going through government shutdowns, but we need these challenges to break out of the system that is so killing our economy. And I have been saying for a long time, The Republicans and I spent eight years on Capitol Hill arguing this. Republicans need to face these battles with strength and courage, recognizing it’s not pretty, recognizing that there is some political risk. But the win is at the end of the game. And I will say this, that your Democrats may cave in more quickly because Donald Trump today has some huge wins. That there is overwhelming what Democrats think that they’re gaining in their political strategy against him on the shutdown. And they’re going to lose it.
SPEAKER 06 :
Other than the hardcore lefties that you and I both know, Jim, you never going to convince them one way or the other. You know, we’re we’re always evil. They’re always right. By the way, they’re completely wrong. They need to look in the mirror and they’re the ones that are evil at the end of the day. But other than that portion, I can’t. I mean, I think they’re very mistaken in thinking that that middle of the road, you know, unaffiliated voter is somehow in favor of what’s going on right now with the shutdown and them coming out. And, you know, Akeem Jeffries basically coming out and blaming all of that on Trump and those of us that are on the right. I mean, it’s laughable, Jim. And the reality is those folks that are in the middle ground that I’m just talking about that we need, by the way, to vote on our side to win. The left is not helping themselves in that area because these people are not stupid, Jim.
SPEAKER 03 :
No, but in reference to what’s going on right now, the win internationally, the win against Antifa. By the way, I don’t know if you saw the reports. Antifa leaders and the funder or the leaders of the organization, they’re running over to Europe to save themselves because they know they’re in trouble. Antifa is going to fall like a wet rag over time. Myra’s and my friend Nick Sorter, really helped break a lot of that down by going to Portland. He did a fantastic job there. And so you get those wins combined with the fact that even though you have these radical leftist AOC types who are never going to give in, The politicians are politicians. They don’t want to lose. Democrats are going to find out if they continue down this path, they’re going to lose. And the good news is we may have a mass reduction in federal employees. And remember, government employee growth was the highest portion of government of employee growth during the Biden administration. And we’re going to get cuts to government services. Thanks to my friend Russ Vogt doing a really good job as OMB director.
SPEAKER 06 :
Jim, how do folks find you? Good stuff, by the way.
SPEAKER 03 :
Thanks. Go to theconservativecaucus.com. That’s V-T-H-E, theconservativecaucus.com.
SPEAKER 06 :
Jim, as always, I appreciate it. Thanks for the updates. Okay, before I let you go, do you want to take a bet on when this thing finally comes to fruition, the shutdown?
SPEAKER 03 :
I think we have at least two more weeks.
SPEAKER 06 :
I’m sorry, I don’t think we can bet on that because I’m with you. I think you and I are in agreement on that one.
SPEAKER 03 :
Yeah, it could be longer, though. I think that Democrats are so insane they don’t know when to stop.
SPEAKER 06 :
I don’t think they’re dumb enough to continue it on through November. Let me just say that.
SPEAKER 03 :
We’re going to have to get slapped in the face to stop, honestly. I agree with you. Schumer’s whole political life is on the line.
SPEAKER 06 :
And not to tarry too long, because I know you’re busy, but I think this is one of those situations where Schumer thinks like you and I. He knows this is not working well for his own party, but the powers that be that are in control of the strings are saying, you keep doing it, Schumer.
SPEAKER 03 :
Well, and those powers that be are AOC and the radical left. That’s correct. And he sees a loss in the primary, and frankly, it’s probably going to happen anyway to him. But he sees that loss coming, and everything’s at stake, and he’s not going to relent. And he does know how not to relent, but he’s a foolish, arrogant jerk for doing so.
SPEAKER 06 :
You’re right. No, you’re 100% correct. Jim, again, as always, I appreciate it. Thanks for the extra time. Thanks, my friend. All right, man. Have a good night. Appreciate you very much. Jim Paff, again, that is the conservative caucus. Golden Eagle Financial coming up next. Al Smith, listen in for this interview. And if you need something from Al directly, just give him a call. Find him at klzradio.com.
SPEAKER 02 :
TJ here with KLZ and Al Smith of Golden Eagle Financial. And Al, I have a question for you. I’ve been putting money away for a while in a savings account or maybe a couple of investment accounts. But what am I doing wrong and what can you do better than that?
SPEAKER 07 :
Well, I think a savings account is important because all the financial gurus, including myself, agree you should have three to six months savings that you have ready liquid access to. But retirement planning is a bit more long term and it’s a bit more strategic. We want to take a look at the sum of money you’ll need way into the future. And we want to look at how that money can last by providing you income for as long as you live.
SPEAKER 02 :
What kind of planning or strategy do you provide for folks with that that have a big savings but haven’t made that next step?
SPEAKER 07 :
Well, that’s a good question. If someone has a large amount in savings, one of the things I do is we have a conversation about their risk tolerance. Nobody’s comfortable losing money, but having money in the market over a long period of time is, is a mechanism to accumulate wealth. And so we talk about this different levels of risk and the different products that are available. And we don’t put everybody into one box, but I have an enormous assortment of financial products. And it’s not that there’s good ones or bad ones. It’s there are some that are more appropriate for some people, but not for others.
SPEAKER 02 :
And that sounds excellent. How can folks get in touch with you for that meeting?
SPEAKER 07 :
You can reach me at 303-744-1128. And if I’m not there, it goes to voicemail, but I return my voicemails promptly. And we could have a conversation in the office. If you live a considerable distance away, we can have a long phone conversation or a Zoom call, whichever you would prefer.
SPEAKER 02 :
And as always, you can find him at klzradio.com slash money. Al, thanks so much for joining us today.
SPEAKER 07 :
Well, thank you, TJ. Thanks for the conversation.
SPEAKER 02 :
You bet.
SPEAKER 11 :
Putting reason into your afternoon drive, this is John Rush.
SPEAKER 06 :
And we are back. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. Appreciate you joining us today. And Matt Walsh, and I like Matt. I mean, he’s one of those guys where, you know, I typically agree with, you know, the majority of things that Matt says. Matt’s a little brash at times, and, you know, and I know I can be as well, although I’m not as brash as Matt is. Matt can be extremely brash depending upon… certain subjects. But again, for the most part, I agree with Matt, and he and I don’t disagree on too many things. And this is true with a lot of folk. There’s a lot of individuals out there where, you know, I may agree with, you know, 95% of what they say, but there’s a 5% that I don’t. And that’s true with a lot of people. And I’ve said this before, you know, you guys that are listening that are married and have partners and so on, you don’t agree on everything. Nor should you, by the way. That’s how relationships work. You may find yourself in total disagreement with somebody about a particular topic. That doesn’t mean you need to break fellowship with them or break your relationship or whatever the case may be. It just means you don’t agree with what they’re saying on a particular subject. There’s a particular texter right now that I’m going back and forth on that I have distinct different views on Israel, Jews, and so on. No offense, this person’s a total racist because they’re anti-Israel, anti-Jew, and thinks that we as Christians now are what Scripture refers to as the Jews. That is completely false. You can try to drum up as many Scriptures as you want from whoever you want to prove that you’re completely wrong. mainly because even Christ himself said, I didn’t come to abolish the law. I came to fulfill the law, meaning the law didn’t go away. It just changed underneath Christ. And I don’t want to get into all the details of that. That’s not what this particular show is all about. We don’t get into those details, and I’m not going to run down that path. And frankly, I’m not going to change anybody’s mind on that. And there’s different beliefs along those lines and has been throughout church history. And you’re not going to convince somebody that believes a particular way. And by the way, you’re not going to convince me of that either. I don’t care what scripture you send me. You’re not going to convince me because I can send you just as many going the opposite direction. And that’s an argument that’s not worth having. It just is. And by the way, at the end of the day, isn’t going to change anything in regards to salvation and where we’re headed and so on. But it does change your belief on the Jews. And some of you that are racist. Yes, I’m calling you out. Those of you that are racist, you need to go check yourself. I’ll just say it that way. You need to check yourself because the reality is you’re wrong. And I’ll just leave it at that. And that’s not this isn’t to do with Matt. I’m just saying that there’s people that we disagree with at times, and that’s okay. In this case, this is Matt that I’m disagreeing with. He tweeted this. I still call it tweets because it’s what it is. That’s where it came from. I know it’s an ex-post, but it’s a tweet. People say that we shouldn’t worry about AI wiping out jobs. The jobs will just change, they say. But the whole point of AI is that it removes the human component entirely. And I’ll go back through this and dissect this in a minute. I’m just going to read you what he said. The jobs aren’t going to change. They’re just going to disappear. AI will make like 10 people into trillionaires. Almost everyone else will be screwed. Mass unemployment, millions of workers rendered irrelevant all at once. That’s what’s going to happen. Not maybe, not might. It’s going to happen. And it doesn’t seem like we’re doing anything at all to prepare for it. Now, this is where, again, Matt and I are going to have to agree to disagree. He’s completely wrong here, by the way. Now, he’s not wrong in all aspects, but he’s got how this works wrong. And what I will attest this to, by the way, is this is a great example of somebody talking about a subject they have no understanding of, but yet they’re now, quote, unquote, the expert. And I don’t consider myself to be any kind of an expert on AI, but technologically speaking, I can tell you right now I’m more of an expert than Matt is. And only because I’ve been around technology ever since it really got started. And part of that was literally having a business in a technology hub, Boulder, Colorado, and learning from a lot of the folks that actually started a lot of the companies that you actually see today and are benefiting from that technology. I was fortunate enough, and I’m not bragging about this, but I was fortunate enough to be able to rub elbows with a lot of the individuals that literally started the things that you’re benefiting from today. And I’m not exaggerating when I say that. I literally was able to hang around and rub elbows with, work on the vehicles and go to lunch with and really have close relationships with a lot of the individuals that were key in a lot of the technology that we have today. You know, for example, place, you know, things like Netflix. You know, I was rubbing elbows with guys that had that idea and were working on the very thing that Netflix is today, long before Netflix ever came along. And so I was able to be involved with a lot of these individuals early on and learn things, I guess is where I’m going with this, learn things that most people weren’t even privy to. And was able to, you know, not only learn from them, but then apply those things to even my business and even to this day. We do all of our own IT work and things like that because I learned through the course of time and having enough influence from these individuals how to do those things on my own. So am I an expert in all these areas? No. But do I know more about it than the average? Yes. Do I know more about it than Matt Walsh does? Yes, I do. And this is where Matt’s wrong. And we’re going to talk to Scott Garlis here in a few minutes. And we’ll even get into some of this because I’m going to ask him some of these questions. But yes, there’s going to be a shift in jobs with AI. Yes, some jobs are going to be eliminated. Absolutely.
SPEAKER 1 :
100%.
SPEAKER 06 :
And much like when the automobile came along and all of those folks that were involved in the horse and buggy trade had to make decisions on, am I going to stay in this or am I going to go to work for Henry Ford or any other of the major manufacturers that were building cars at that time? And by the way, the smart ones did. They did go to work for the Henry Fords and the Buicks and the Oldsmobiles and the General Motors and on down the line we go. There was hundreds of companies back then building cars. And a lot of them went to work there. Now, there was a lot of stubborn individuals that didn’t, that basically said, oh, this is a rotten way to do things. We should continue on with the horse and buggy. That should be the made mode of transportation. This whole car thing is for the birds. We shouldn’t go down that path. Much like Matt Walsh is saying right here. And in turn, those guys got left behind. So my advice to folks today is if you’re in a job whereby AI might replace you, you probably should be looking at, if it does, what am I doing next? Maybe you’re the age where you can just retire. Maybe you’re at an age where you really need that job and you need to figure out how to replace that job. Maybe you need to go take some night classes and do some different things in regards to the trades or learning a different skill or how can you be a part of AI instead of it replacing you. They’re still going to need… There’s still going to need to be people around. This is where I differ with Matt again. There’s going to be a human touch in AI, and it’s going to be making sure AI is correct. And that will happen in a lot of industries because AI will not always be correct. It will learn, and it will get better as time goes by, but it will still need that human component to make sure that, A, it’s in check, quote, unquote. So you’re going to see, yes, a big change in jobs and where people are at when it comes to AI. And the smart people will learn how to use that effectively and grow with it. But is it going to be a complete technology that just eliminates so many jobs that there’s just mass unemployment? No, I don’t see that. Sorry, I don’t see that. There’ll be a shift. Some people may not be doing today what they’re doing and will have to do something different down the road. And remember, we’ve still got a lot of places in industry today where there’s not enough workers. The trades being one of them. You guys hear me talk about that a lot. The trades are still in major need of workers. And you’re going to see a shift. You’ll see some things improve. You’ll see some technologies get better. You’ll see some workflows get better because of that. You’ll see that instead of an office maybe needing 10 people, they might need two. Okay, so eight people are going to have to figure out something else to do. And they might get repositioned inside of the company or they may just leave. They may not have a choice. And by the way, those that are resistant to change, they’ll be left out in the cold. And yes, they’ll be on the unemployment line. Unfortunately, they will be. But that’s what’s going to happen. So I disagree with Matt. There are, in some cases, by the way, folks preparing for this. I am trying to prepare my audience for this. I talk about AI continually. I don’t avoid it. I don’t poo-poo it. I don’t just say it needs to go away and we just need to bare our head in the sand. No, in fact, I have been one that has said, we need to be proactive with this. Especially as conservative Christians, we need to really be proactive. Is it doing what it needs to do and are we going to keep it in check? I’ve said over and over and over again that this has to be a time where the church especially doesn’t bury its head in the sand and just say, yeah, don’t go there. We did that when it came to music. We did that with Hollywood. We did it with dancing. We did it with all sorts of things, by the way. We sort of poo-pooed that, buried our head in the sand and turned our back to it and said, you should never do that. And look where that got us. We cannot do that this time. So I am the opposite of Matt Walsh. I am one that says we should embrace this. We should do every single thing we possibly can to be involved in this. We need to help shape it, control it, use it, benefit from it, and so on. I’m the opposite of Matt Walsh. So this is where he and I will differ greatly. And I get it. Not all of you as listeners agree with me in this particular topic. Some of you are on the Matt Walsh side. I’m sorry to say you are. But, you know, just trust me in this. I’m not going to be wrong. What I’m saying will happen and take place. Again, we’ll talk to Scott Garlis in a few minutes and I’ll get his opinions on this. But he’s going to be right in line with me on this. I can almost tell you. And there’s going to be a shift and people will benefit greatly from this. And no, it’s not just going to be about 10 people. There’ll be a lot of others that benefit from this as well. Mahi coin. Speaking of benefiting, find out exactly what your collection of whatever. Gold, by the way, is over $4,000 an ounce. It might have come down just a tad today, but it’s up in that $4,000 range. Find out what those things are worth to you. And if you want to turn that into cash, he can help you do that. 720-370-3400.
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SPEAKER 06 :
All right, Michael Bailey, he is our mobile estate planner. Find out today when you can actually get in to see him and get your estate updated in order, and make sure you get that done. Find him today at klzradio.com.
SPEAKER 12 :
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SPEAKER 06 :
All right, we are back. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. Scott Garlis with us today. Scott, thanks for changing days for me, by the way. I appreciate that greatly.
SPEAKER 14 :
Oh, John, any time. My pleasure.
SPEAKER 06 :
I had a great day yesterday and had a great family event and proud of one of my sons and the accomplishments that he had. Had a great little ceremony I went to, and it was really fun. I don’t want to say exactly what that was on air because we’ve got folks out there listening that, frankly, Scott, I’m probably not super popular with. So if somebody wants to know specifically, I guess they can ask, and I know people that would probably want to know. But in general, I won’t announce what I did, but I was very proud to be where I was at yesterday.
SPEAKER 14 :
Glad you’re in a happy place, and sorry that you can’t share those details.
SPEAKER 06 :
Yeah, that’s all right. In this particular case, I cannot. But that’s all right. Bent Pine Capital, talk to us about the… You know what? Before we get going, I had this come up a moment ago. I read something that Matt Walsh, who I normally am in total agreement with, but in this particular case, he was slamming AI, thinks it’s probably the worst thing since Satan himself. It’s going to do nothing but destroy lives and mass unemployment, and we’re not doing anything about it. And This is where he and I will just have to agree to disagree because I look at AI completely differently, Scott.
SPEAKER 14 :
I agree with you. I mean, look, yes. Do I think there’s going to be some job loss up front? I do. Yes.
SPEAKER 06 :
Well, really quick, by the way, I think there will be for those folks that aren’t prepared for their job to be lost to AI. If they prepare themselves correctly, there won’t be any. But you’re right. Some will be caught off guard and there will be. You’re absolutely right.
SPEAKER 14 :
Yes, that’s correct. I mean, like, okay, so I have a friend, he works at a big bank, and we were talking about what they’re doing and how they’re training on the data that they’ve collected over all the years and reworking all their systems, and he was telling me, you know, the advantages they’re seeing are incredible, and what they’re doing is incredible. But, you know, he did say something like coders. You know, a few years ago, everybody was looking to hire a coder, especially in the investment world, and now he said… You know, we can do all this coding on our own. We don’t need to hire hundreds or thousands of coders anymore. What we’re learning is that with AI, it’s more about learning how to prompt because AI can help us with a lot of code. So it just, you know, there will be transitions where it won’t be obvious now, sort of like a company like I use as an example, Salesforce. Nobody ever pictured Salesforce coming about and then the internet happened and things took off and we had more of a need for a company like that and Salesforce has blown up into a humongous company. Yes, and did brick-and-mortar stores all go away after the dire predictions when the Internet took off? No, they’re still around.
SPEAKER 06 :
They shifted. I mean, to your point, some did, and even today. I mean, Amazon and places like that have replaced some brick-and-mortar, although brick-and-mortar still exists in a lot of places. For example, are shopping malls what they used to be? No. And Scott, I think that was, you know, no offense, I think their future was pretty well destined out even a couple of decades ago. In some cases, they chose to embrace that and make some changes necessary. In other cases, they didn’t, and those malls have died. That’s what happens when you don’t prepare yourself for the future.
SPEAKER 14 :
Yeah, that’s right. And I think, so I have conversations with my friends about this all the time, and we talk about how the companies that are embracing AI and figuring out how they can use it to augment their business, they’re gonna be more successful than the companies that aren’t. Because the companies that, to your point, the companies that aren’t doing anything about it and aren’t preparing, they’re gonna get left behind.
SPEAKER 06 :
Yep. No, you’re exactly right. Again, I look at it as, yes, there’s going to be an initial shift, how people respond to it and or react and react as a negative, respond as a positive, depending upon how they respond to it will depend upon how they end up, you know, down the road. But at the end of the day, this will be great. I look at it like the Industrial Revolution. It’s going to be great for productivity. Companies are going to benefit. Profit margins will actually go up. In other words, they’ll figure out ways to actually make all of this work. At the end of the day, that money gets put back into the economy, R&D, and other things, and we all benefit when it’s all said and done. I don’t look at it as a bad thing but a good thing.
SPEAKER 14 :
I agree. And so what people will do, though, people that are against it will – they will find the worst-case scenario.
SPEAKER 04 :
Don’t balk at it.
SPEAKER 14 :
Highlight them. Yeah, and especially like the isolated incidents, and that will be what they go back to all the time.
SPEAKER 06 :
And really quick, Scott, you bring up something that’s really important, I think, and it’s something that I think moving forward we all have to keep in the back of our minds, what you just said, because the news organizations, especially in a lot of cases, they will have some huge downsizing opportunities. With AI, my industry, media, there’s going to be some huge downsizing in regards to some of that because certain people won’t be needed anymore, meaning they’re going to be tainted when they give stories.
SPEAKER 14 :
Yeah, and this is true. And again, it’ll be because… AI increases efficiency and allows people to do more with less. I think you’re also seeing it on the guys I talked to on Wall Street in the investment world, where you’re seeing this start to show up is in the analyst-type roles, the junior analysts, the entry-level spots, kids coming out of college. and so i was looking the other day at the unemployment numbers and you know the unemployment numbers for for college graduates kids age 20 to 24 they’re ticking up um they’re the highest they’ve been in a while and and i think it’s things like this that could be causing that but again I just think they’ll learn to retool, refigure it out, and they will do just fine.
SPEAKER 06 :
Well, and it’s going to be a big – it’s already happening – it’s going to be a big boost for trades, which, by the way, we’ve drastically needed a shift in the trades for the past couple of decades. I mean, Scott, when you look out into the trades, and for those of you listening, you probably know this if you’re in the trades, but most trades – are full of, I’m sorry to say, Scott, old guys like myself. In other words, the old guys are getting older. They haven’t been replaced with new guys. They’re hanging on longer, not because they, in some cases, need the money, but because the company needs them to be around because otherwise there’s nobody to do the job, Scott. And that’s slowly starting to change and pivot where you’re seeing new kids now coming into the trades because it’s so lucrative for them to do so.
SPEAKER 14 :
a good buddy of mine i ride with a lot on the weekends the week morning weekday mornings whenever i can his kids like 21 he’s been in the uh the heating hvac business for a couple years now and the guy said he cannot believe how much money his son’s already making yeah because of exactly that there is a dearth of young people and there’s a there is a ton of opportunity for a guy like that that just wants to buckle down and look I don’t think AI is coming in to replace HVAC guys or plumbers or electricians, car repair guys.
SPEAKER 06 :
No, no, where it’s coming, where AI is coming in those industries, for all of you listening, Scott, you know this, but the scheduling of things, the ordering. Yeah. of certain things, maybe the order and how you do things, the writing of the job tickets and invoices and, you know, what parts are better than another and what are certain trends. Yeah, those are going to be things, Scott, that AI helps in the trades. But you are correct. There is, as of right now, and I don’t see this any time in the future, there is no robot to fix your car.
SPEAKER 14 :
No, and so, again, I’ll just elaborate a little more. I was listening to a recent interview with some of the OpenAI guys, and one of the things they were talking about, like in the biotech industry in particular, where they see a huge advantage as they’re combing through all this data is just on all the paperwork and the filing that needs to be done. They said normally with people, they forget about the deadlines or when they have to file things or how long it takes, and they’re like, With applying AI to these processes, as soon as a biotech company has a breakthrough and advancement, we can immediately be on top of it, have the paperwork lined up, ready to go, and we can cut months and man hours and all sorts of cost savings out of that process. So think about it, if you’re a biotech company that’s burning through tons of cash, that saves more money for you to invest in your research moving forward, and maybe it makes it quicker for you to get to the finish line and start becoming profitable.
SPEAKER 06 :
There you go. Great example. So again, I am not a Matt Walsh. I don’t look at AI the way that he and a lot of others do. I look at it completely different. Maybe I’m the one that’s being misled, Scott, but I really don’t think so. I live and breathe and live in the world that you and I are talking about, and I just don’t see it the way a lot of these guys are predicting. Fair enough. All right. Talk to us about the Fed rate cuts and what’s likely to come.
SPEAKER 14 :
Yeah, so one of the things we did not get last week with the current shutdown is the BLS labor market, sort of the hiring numbers.
SPEAKER 06 :
Right.
SPEAKER 14 :
So all the proprietary data I look at, this index I put together, it looks like hiring slowed down again this past month. Okay. The ADP numbers we saw, I believe it was like last Wednesday, they were negative again. The prior numbers were revised lower. It’s just, yeah, so… again, the Fed probably needs to do more to support the labor market. And we have a number of guys speak this week, one in particular, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York chairman or president, John Williams. He’s also the vice chair of the Federal Open Market Committee, New York Fed chair always is. But he said, he came out and said exactly that. He said, look, we need to cut rates more to support the labor market. So if we go through and look at the makeup of the Voting committee right now, it’s eight of the 12 voters are all dovish, meaning they’re inclined to cut rates. So we’re probably going to see another rate cut at the end of this month would be my yes.
SPEAKER 06 :
How much do you think?
SPEAKER 14 :
I think they’re going to go another 25 basis points. They could do more.
SPEAKER 06 :
And then we skip November and there’s one in December, right?
SPEAKER 14 :
One in December, yeah. And the market right now is pricing in a December rate cut as well, and then another, I believe, in March. Okay.
SPEAKER 06 :
All right. Now, that one’s going to be interesting because you’re going to see basically a Fed chair overhaul at that. Well, not March, but by March you’re going to know what’s happening in April, correct?
SPEAKER 14 :
Yeah, yeah, that’s exactly right.
SPEAKER 06 :
Okay. All right. No, this is good stuff. Okay, so given all of this, what are some of the upsides? What are some of the things we should be looking at?
SPEAKER 14 :
Yeah, so one of the concurrent things going on here is, so as the Fed keeps cutting rates, you know, we were just talking about potentially three rate cuts over the next six months.
SPEAKER 04 :
Right.
SPEAKER 14 :
That’s going to drop the interest payment on money market funds by another 75 basis points potentially. So they’ve gone from, they were like 5-ish, 5.2%, maybe 16, 18 months ago. They’re down to like 3.9% now. We could be looking at close to 3% in the next six months, potentially. So, you know, that’s getting closer and closer to inflation. Now, in the meantime, back when the pandemic first happened, I want to say the amount of money in the money market funds was around $4 trillion. That has exploded to $7.3 trillion, I believe is where the number is now. That’s a lot of money in a short period of time. It took from, like, I think the records go back to 1970 to 2020 to get to 4.2, and in five years, we’ve doubled it.
SPEAKER 04 :
Yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER 14 :
So to me, when I think about that, I mean, if you see that payout go down from, say, 5.2 to 3.0, your interest payments just got cut in half.
SPEAKER 04 :
Yeah, yeah, good point.
SPEAKER 14 :
To me, I mean, I think what you’re going to see is you’re going to see a lot of that money start to come out of the money markets. It’s not going to completely leave it, but they’re probably going to start looking for a better payout somewhere else, especially as that interest payment gets closer to the inflation rate. And I would expect that they’re going to go back to the equity markets.
SPEAKER 06 :
Okay.
SPEAKER 14 :
So I think that will continue to power stocks even higher.
SPEAKER 06 :
Had a lot of questions coming in of late in regards to gold and sort of the run-on. And is this an indicator that things are really going to get awful moving forward? There’s some folks out there saying that that’s exactly what’s going to happen. I’m also not… just me, Scott, I’m also not in that camp. I mean, gold does all sorts of things at different times for various reasons. Mainly it’s based upon what people think the economy might do in the investing gold. And of course it’s supply and demand. So the more than invest in the price automatically starts to go up. As you know, I see it being that more than I do anything else.
SPEAKER 14 :
Yeah. I mean, I think it’s not only the scarcity value, but you also have a China is a big buyer of gold. Yeah. And so what, One of the things I’ve been reading about is China is trying to buy more gold to get away from the dollar because they’re having a trade standoff with the U.S. Okay. And they’re trying to pitch it to other countries like, hey, you should start storing gold with us. Look at all the gold we have here. And they’re trying to make a case of why the yuan should become a more important currency. China has been fighting for this for years.
SPEAKER 06 :
Yep.
SPEAKER 14 :
And one of the arguments I might throw back against that, so we’ve heard this a ton since April. So the April data from the Treasury showed that there was a dip in U.S. Treasury purchases. Actually, it wasn’t a dip. They were sold. The number dropped. The total value dropped. And a big part of that was China sold Treasury bonds. And sort of, you know, China’s using it as a financial weapon, too, to try to drive yields up to make things more painful for people in the U.S. But so that story hasn’t left the media. They keep talking about how, oh, my God. Foreigners are evacuating us assets. Nobody wants to own them anymore, blah, blah, blah. Well, I think we touched on this last time, but if you look at the trend, the most recent treasury data, which goes through, goes through July, we have touched new records over the last two months in terms of total, total foreign dollars invested in us treasury securities. I think it’s the number was 9.2 million. Uh, I’m sorry, $9.2 trillion through July. And it’s because other countries, not China. buying our debt again and I just think to your point of there’s some out there in the mainstream broadcast media that are just they’re trying to scare people and because they’re they’re losing viewership and they’re they’re trying to get more and they’re trying to be more scare tactic and it’s hurting them more I agree but it’s they’re trying to tell people something’s going on in stock.
SPEAKER 06 :
And I agree with you. And I had a texter, again, asking that very question and, you know, what’s going on. And, you know, you look at some of these guys that are out there that have podcasts and so on, and they talk about gold and, you know, the investment, you know, portion of and where it’s going to go and so on. And one thing I’m always quick to remind everybody of is those persons that are selling those commodities, be careful when you listen to them because they’re always going to be skewed in that direction because it’s how they make money, Scott.
SPEAKER 14 :
That’s exactly right.
SPEAKER 06 :
Sorry, I don’t know how else to say it. It’s how they make money.
SPEAKER 14 :
No, that’s exactly right. I was going to say the same thing. Like, just look at who you’re taking this information from. And if they’re trying to sell you a gold letter, then, hey, yeah, of course they are.
SPEAKER 06 :
Absolutely, yeah. And, you know, it’s like the preparedness. You know, I do a show on Fridays, 2 to 3 o’clock. We talk about preparedness stuff and so on. And, again, I do that in a little bit different slant than probably most quote-unquote preppers would do. But even those… prepper organizations and or websites or whatever. Of course, they’re going to want to tell you how bad things are. Scott, they want you to buy their whatever, their food, their their storage, their this, their that. I mean, yeah, all those guys want to tell you the end of the world’s coming tomorrow because they want to say something. And I’m not saying that you shouldn’t be prepared in some of those areas and take note of some of those things. But, you know, do you need to go all in? And I would say, no, be very careful about what you’re doing along those lines, because while the sky might be dropping, it’s not falling.
SPEAKER 14 :
Exactly. And gold has had a monster tear. And, you know, God bless all the guys who have been saying, hey, gold’s going to keep running. I get it. But I agree with you. Right. I don’t think going all in on any one thing is ever a great idea. Now, look, can you be super successful doing that? You can, and you can be really lucky, but this is why I believe you should be diversified in your asset mix, in your portfolio, in your investing strategies. Now, if you’re going all in on a sole proprietorship business that you own, yes, you totally should. But in terms of investing, you should have a mix of gold, you should have some Bitcoin in there, you should have dividend-paying stocks, you should have bonds. And that way, you’ve got a good basket that can navigate you through all sorts of environments, good and bad.
SPEAKER 06 :
Great point. All right. Ben Pine Capital. How do folks find you, Scott?
SPEAKER 14 :
Yeah, sure. LinkedIn, Twitter, or Substack, C. Scott Garlis.
SPEAKER 06 :
Scott, always a joy, and I tell people this constantly, you know, you and I have been talking long before COVID. Frankly, there’s not too many things that collectively we’ve been wrong on, and I’m not trying to toot our own horn, but we look at things pretty reasonably, rationally, I guess you could say, and we don’t go off on these tangents on any one thing, and I think that shows, and I think you’ve got a great track record.
SPEAKER 14 :
I’m right there with you. I feel the same about you, John. I enjoy the conversations every week.
SPEAKER 06 :
Well, I appreciate it, Scott. You hang in there. We’ll talk to you again next week. Thanks for your time. Have a great night. Again, Scott Garlis. And again, I’m very fond of Scott, mainly because he thinks a lot like we do. And I said this to a texter just a moment ago. Since even before COVID, all the way through COVID, and everything we talked about with interest rate hikes and so on, you know what? He hasn’t really missed the mark yet. So if you really want to follow somebody that’s really true to what’s going on, he’s a guy you can get a lot of advice from, and I mean that sincerely. Cub Creek Heat and Air Conditioning. Speaking of HVAC, like we were talking to Scott about, get that furnace tune-up special right now. Go to klzradio.com.
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SPEAKER 06 :
Now back to Rush to Reason on KLZ 560. All right, we are back just kind of closing things out here for this particular hour, which there was news today coming out of the Guardian. It’s been in other places as well. But the IRS is furloughing nearly half of its workforce due to the government shutdown. Now, I don’t know exactly what that means. Or, you know, if you’re in the middle of an audit or whatever, I have no idea what that actually means at the end of the day. But about 34,000 workers died. inside of the IRS are being furloughed until, of course, the government shutdown is ended and so on. I don’t know exactly what this, again, does for those of you listening. My gut feeling is if you’ve got some things that you’ve been working on, those might get tabled for a little bit until things actually come back to uh to normality and again i i don’t know so this is something that you’ll have to do some research on on your own i just want to let you guys know that that’s out there there will be backlogs and backlogs and delays and so on so you’ll have to kind of figure some of that out on your own if that in fact is you and you’ve got some things going on with them as we speak but i want to throw that in as sort of a psa here before we end this particular hour all right one more hour coming your way rush to reason denver’s afternoon rush klz 560.
SPEAKER 1 :
Thank you.
SPEAKER 13 :
I’m a rich guy
