Join John Rush on Rush to Reason as he navigates through the intricacies of economic and social challenges. From humorous segments on so-called ‘stupid criminals’ to serious discussions on policy shifts, this episode is packed with content that enlightens as much as it entertains. The dialogue further encompasses the irony seen in political behaviors over the years, with a particularly sharp look at past and present Democratic stances. For those interested in understanding the nuance of politics and society’s direction, this episode offers both depth and clarity.
SPEAKER 12 :
This is Rush to Reason.
SPEAKER 07 :
You are going to shut your damn yapper and listen for a change because I got you pegged, sweetheart. You want to take the easy way out because you’re scared. And you’re scared because if you try and fail, there’s only you to blame. Let me break this down for you. Life is scary. Get used to it. There are no magical fixes.
SPEAKER 12 :
With your host, John Rush.
SPEAKER 09 :
My advice to you is to do what your parents did.
SPEAKER 05 :
Get a job, sir. You haven’t made everybody equal. You’ve made them the same, and there’s a big difference.
SPEAKER 03 :
Let me tell you why you’re here. You’re here because you know something. What you know you can’t explain, but you feel it. You’ve felt it your entire life, that there’s something wrong with the world. You don’t know what it is, but it’s there. It is this feeling that has brought you to me.
SPEAKER 16 :
Are you crazy? Am I? Or am I so sane that you just blew your mind?
SPEAKER 08 :
It’s Rush to Reason with your host, John Rush, presented by Cub Creek Heating and Air Conditioning.
SPEAKER 14 :
All right, we are back. Hour number three, Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. Joe, welcome back, sir. Thanks for calling in. John, no problem. I understand you’ve got a guest at the bottom of the hour, correct? Yes, I do, but we’ve got plenty of time to talk.
SPEAKER 10 :
Well, I thought I’d just, if you don’t mind, I can fill in most of this half hour, save your voice. I can do a quick recap of this week’s Jersey Joe podcast. Let’s do it. That is fine by me. Go for it. All right. Well, John, I normally do a quote of the week to start up, and I gave you the quote yesterday from Thomas Sowell about how our education system has resulted in people, you know, who could do nothing but chant and yell and call you stupid names. But there’s another quote he had on the U.S. education system. Let’s see if I can find it here. Here’s this quote from, again, Thomas Sowell, economist. He said, a guaranteed market for a teacher college degrees or a captive audience for indoctrination. Thomas Sowell. He’s good. We’ve seen that. Also, I read this the other day, and when I was talking to my grandson the other day, and this is, I’m going to have to change one word. And here’s what I told him. Essentially, I told my grandson, who’s in his 20 now, he says, I tell him, just because I give you advice, it doesn’t mean that I know more than you. It just means I’ve done more stupid stuff than you’ve done. Uh-huh. Good point. Good point. Anyway. Absolutely, Joe. Absolutely. All right. I normally, in my podcast, I also do a stupidest thing I’ve heard all week. And we’ve all heard this thing about, you know, the Washington Redskins have to change their name because it’s insulting to Indians and whatnot. Out on Long Island, there’s a school… high school district, and their sports team, baseball, football, women’s lacrosse, they’ve been calling themselves the Spartans. As we all know, the Spartans were Greek warriors who held off the Persians. There’s a movie about the 100 Spartans holding off 5,000 Persians, whatnot. Well, some parents have filed a lawsuit demanding that the school change their name because Spartans… glorifies white supremacy since all the Greek Spartans were white warriors. Now, by the way, Michigan State University is also the Spartans. That’s right. But is that the stupidest thing you’ve heard all week?
SPEAKER 14 :
Joe, it gets to a point with some of these people where it’s like, what name aren’t you offended at?
SPEAKER 10 :
Literally. It’s just so stupid. Now, by the way, the runner-up to – now, you know, I normally just have one. This week I had the runner-up to the stupidest thing every week. The runner-up – now, you know that Amazon owns Whole Foods, right? That’s right. That’s right. Now, there’s a story. They interviewed people. There are people out there who intentionally, not out of need, they intentionally are shoplifting from Whole Foods to, quote, get back at Jeff Bezos, who, by the way, is not the owner of Amazon. And he’s no longer the CEO. He resigned three years ago. He’s not an officer. He’s not the owner. He’s a minority shareholder. And they are intentionally shoplifting from Whole Foods to, quote, get back at Jeff Bezos.
SPEAKER 14 :
I did a story on that last week. I can’t remember. I think it was – it might have been Thursday, Joe. I did a story on that where – I mean, that is the definition of insanity because at the end of the day, the only buddies’ prices you’re raising are your own.
SPEAKER 10 :
Yeah, and the other shoppers and the other neighbors who shop in that same store as you do.
SPEAKER 14 :
Which, by the way, shows you the idiocy of the left.
SPEAKER 10 :
Yep. The only people you’re hurting are your neighbors. Right. And if it gets bad enough, just like happened to Walgreens, they’re going to start closing stores.
SPEAKER 14 :
That’s right.
SPEAKER 10 :
And then people complain, well, there’s no drugstore. You know, we’re in a desert.
SPEAKER 14 :
There’s not enough competition. It’s a desert. That’s right. That’s right.
SPEAKER 10 :
It’s a desert. You know, I’ve got the nearest drugstore is 10 miles away. The nearest grocery market is five miles away.
SPEAKER 14 :
What do you expect, knucklehead? You shut them all down.
SPEAKER 10 :
You shut them all down. By the way, that’s what’s happening in San Francisco. Businesses have been fleeing that city. And now they’re complaining it’s a food desert. You know, there’s nothing but little bodegas where you pay twice as much and you can’t get fresh vegetables. Well, why do you think the grocery stores left?
SPEAKER 14 :
Well, it might have a little bit to do with the feces map, Joe.
SPEAKER 10 :
The feces map, and not only was it shoplifting, but the stores are saying, our employees are getting robbed in our parking lots. We fear for the safety of our employees. So that’s what’s happening here.
SPEAKER 14 :
So, Joe, tell me, name a major U.S. Democrat-run city that doesn’t have the same problems.
SPEAKER 10 :
Um… They all do, because some are worse than others.
SPEAKER 14 :
Because we have that in Denver. We have the same problems here.
SPEAKER 10 :
Right, Denver. And here’s a telling thing. Baltimore, Maryland, and John, when I was in my 30s, Baltimore used to be a fat, you know, it’s got a port. Have you ever been to Baltimore? I’ve not, but I’ve heard a lot about it. John, it’s got a port. It’s got a harbor. You know, and you had all these restaurants and stores, and it was vibrant and growing. Well, why the rest of the country since 1970, why the rest of the country population has grown about 30%. In the past 50 years, Baltimore has shrunk by a third. And all the businesses and taxpayers, anybody who could leave the city of Baltimore has left. Anybody who had the means to leave that city. And they didn’t go far, John. They just went to the neighboring towns. I mean, you can stand on top of a tall building in Baltimore and look out. four or five miles away. And why? Because Baltimore kept raising taxes in addition to crime. They kept raising taxes and raising taxes. Let’s say you owned a liquor store. They had this property tax where every year they would come in and they would inventory everything in your store, the cash registers, every bottle of liquor on the shelf.
SPEAKER 14 :
So they were charging personal property tax on inventory.
SPEAKER 10 :
Personal property tax on inventory. Jeez. And all the businesses said, screw this. Yeah, I’ll go somewhere else. And they also imposed a city income tax. So all the wage earners said, whoa, I can work somewhere else. I can see a nice apartment building over there that’s just on the other side of the city line. I’m going to move over there. So that’s how you crush and kill a city. And by the way, their high school graduation rates are down in the 50% range. Almost half the kids never graduate from college. Unbelievable. So and that’s how you kill a city. And San Francisco is well on its way to doing that.
SPEAKER 14 :
Yep. Before we take a break, you want me to play this clip from from Kareem Jean-Pierre? Yeah, Kareem Jean-Pierre. You want me to play that really quick?
SPEAKER 10 :
Yes. Celebrating celebrating when Biden did it. Apparently tariffs were a good thing when Biden did it. So why don’t we do that when we get back?
SPEAKER 14 :
All right. Well, we’ll do that as soon as we come back. Flashlock coming up next. 303-806-8886.
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31%.
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SPEAKER 14 :
This is Rush to Reason on KLZ 560. All right, we are back. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. Jersey Joe joining us now. All right, I’m going to play this clip, Joe. Here we go.
SPEAKER 10 :
John, before you do that, American Stonehenge, it’s a journey back in history. Remember, I don’t know if you were old enough, but when I was young, they had the Rocky and Bullwinkle show. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. And they had something they called the Wayback Machine, where they would take you back.
SPEAKER 14 :
Oh, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes.
SPEAKER 10 :
Well, actually, this clip and the next one are from the Wayback Machine. This is Kareem Jean-Pierre bragging about Biden imposing tariffs on China. And then we have another one that follows. We have another Wayback segment right after that. So let’s do this. This is Kareem Jean-Pierre bragging about Biden imposing tariffs on China.
SPEAKER 14 :
All right. Here we go. Charlie, let me get the sound up. Here we go. Maybe. Is it not playing, Charlie? Let me back it up and try this again.
SPEAKER 10 :
Let me reload it again.
SPEAKER 14 :
Yeah, I’ve got it unmuted. Here we go.
SPEAKER 05 :
…directed his trade representative to increase tariffs under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 on $18 billion of imports from China. This action will protect American workers and businesses from China’s unfair trade practices, as you heard. The president often say American workers and businesses can out-compete anyone.
SPEAKER 14 :
All right, Joe. So it’s amazing we’ve had a switch from the left. A switch from the left.
SPEAKER 10 :
Now, keeping on that theme, let’s go back to Obama from 2011 announcing that there’s too much waste, fraud, and abuse in government. And he’s starting an initiative to identify and route out waste, fraud, and abuse. Here we go.
SPEAKER 14 :
It’ll play. Yeah, let’s try it one more time, Charlie. Here we go.
SPEAKER 18 :
But what should be easy is getting rid of the pointless waste and stupid spending that doesn’t benefit anybody. Waste we should be getting rid of even if we didn’t have a deficit. Sure, some of these cuts aren’t that big. But no amount of waste is acceptable. Not when it’s your money. Not at a time when so many Americans are already cutting back. Just as families are living within their means, government should too. Did you know the federal government pays for a website devoted to a folk music ensemble made up of forest rangers? They’re called the Fiddlin’ Foresters. I’ll put their music on my iPod, but I’m not paying for their website. And there are hundreds of similar sites that we should consolidate or just get rid of. By the way, you’re not only paying for websites no one needs, you’re paying for thousands of buildings all across the country no one uses. For the last decade, the government’s owned a massive and completely empty warehouse in the middle of Brooklyn, for example. Now, the government hadn’t been able to sell this building and others like it because of red tape and Washington politics that held things up for years. But we’re finally cutting through all that and plan to get rid of these buildings in the months ahead. We need to step up our game. We need to go after every dime. We need to make government work for you. That’s why, starting today, I’ve asked the Vice President to lead a renewed effort to hunt down misspent tax dollars in every agency and department of this government. We’re calling it the Campaign to Cut Waste. And I know Joe’s the right man to lead it. Because nobody messes with Joe.
SPEAKER 20 :
There’s a new standard by which the government is going to function from this point on. The American people are entitled to transparency. Look, a lot of this depends on new, sophisticated methods, but it also, we know, depends on relentless focus on making this a priority. Focus that can’t be delegated. We’re holding ourselves accountable, and we’re deeply committed and focused on making government function better. We’re not just eliminating fraud and waste. We hope to be instilling an entire new culture that not only our administration, but every succeeding administration will, in fact, pursue. We’re going to give you the government you expect and deserve.
SPEAKER 14 :
All right, Joe, that’s it. I didn’t catch that guy’s last name. Who was that talking, Joe?
SPEAKER 10 :
Well, Obama referred to him as Joe, but I didn’t catch his last name. Did you recognize the voice? I think that was Uncle Joe. Uncle Joe. Okay. Now, as long as we’re doing way back, John, I got one more. Now, by the way, the Democrats a couple of days ago just voted. There was a bill in the House to ensure that only American citizens could vote in our elections, and every Democrat voted against it. We have a clip of not Senator Chuck Schumer. But from 1996, when Chuck Schumer was still in the House of Representatives, this is a very young Congressman Chuck Schumer railing against his own fellow Democrats for opposing this identification bill. So do we have that one? We got it. Here we go.
SPEAKER 06 :
The gentleman salute him for his work on this rise in support of the amendment. First of all, Social Security card is used from one end of America to the other as an identification card right now. Who are we kidding? If you want to pass a law and says it shouldn’t be, I would ask the chairman and the distinguished minority member of the Social Security Committee to pass that law. But let’s let’s admit the truth. Everywhere people go, they’re asked for a Social Security card. In fact, one way to prove you’re a bona fide person who can have a job is to ask for a driver’s license and a Social Security card. This is an anti-fraud amendment. All over where we go, people say, well, why can’t you stop illegal immigrants or others from coming here. And the number one answer we give our constituents is when they come here they can get jobs, get benefits against the law because of fraud. And here the gentleman from Florida has put together the most effective anti-fraud measure we can find without it changing the actions of the government one bit. And we find all this opposition. ladies and gentlemen of this chamber what i worry about is that this bill which started out with good intentions whether you agree with it or disagree with it is going to end up being the same kind of thing that the public gets angry with us on we say we’re doing something and we do nothing because every time someone makes a rational and small proposal to get something done People say, well, what about this hypothetical, that hypothetical, etc. I urge support of this amendment. If you believe you want to stop fraud in immigration, you have no choice but to support this amendment. Joe, is that Republican Schumer?
SPEAKER 10 :
Now, that was Republican Schumer, by the way. Today, he would be classified by the left as a right-wing nutjob.
SPEAKER 14 :
Yes, he would be. After listening to that, yes.
SPEAKER 10 :
Right. I’ve got one more recent way back. Now, there’s a guy, you probably never heard of him. He’s called Harry Sisson. He refers to himself as a, you know, he’s on Instagram and whatnot. He refers to himself as an influencer. Well, here’s two quotes from him two years apart. So here’s his first one where he’s slamming Donald Trump. This was from March 16th of this year. The White House is ignoring federal courts and just doing whatever they want. Trump wants to be a king, and MAGA will stand by and clap along like good little servants. The constitutional crisis is here. Now, how do you feel about that just two years prior on June 30th of 23, when Biden was president? Here’s his post. Amazing. President Biden just announced that he will invoke the Higher Education Act to bypass the conservative majority in the Supreme Court and their terrible ruling. He’s fighting for student debt relief and won’t give up this battle. Okay. I think his middle name is hypocrisy, Joe.
SPEAKER 14 :
Harry is an absolute loon puppet is the only way I know to say that, Joe. He is literally a puppet for the left.
SPEAKER 10 :
Were you familiar with him before that?
SPEAKER 14 :
Oh, yeah. No, I’ve watched him all over social media and so on. Don’t follow him, but I see enough counters to him to know of him and what he says. So, yes. All right. Joe, we’ve only got a few minutes left, I think.
SPEAKER 10 :
How about a little humor?
SPEAKER 14 :
Go for it.
SPEAKER 10 :
All right, we got a contest here, the Stupid Criminal of the Week. We got two contestants for the Stupid Criminal of the Week. Now, the first guy is a guy who goes to a Tesla dealership and says he wants to test drive a Tesla Cybertruck. And so he gives the salesman his real driver’s license, and they make a copy of it, and he signs the agreement that says, you know, I’ll bring it back within 30 minutes, otherwise I’m going to pay you so much an hour. So he drives off in this Tesla Cybertruck and never comes back. Now, of course, the Tesla Cybertruck has GPS. Oh, yeah, you can find that thing anywhere. Anywhere. I can find my Kia, by the way, my Telluride. Same thing. I can go on my phone. Where’s my car? It’s called Telematics. Right. Anyway, so the dealership finds the next day they locate the Kia. They locate the Cybertruck in a Home Depot parking lot, and they go with the key fob and tow truck. And they have a tow truck pick it up and drive it away. Well, the guy, again, he gave him his real driver’s license. He shows up at the dealership demanding he had some personal property in the backseat of the Cybertruck, demanding his personal property back from the truck that was repossessed. From the truck that he stole. From the truck that he stole. What an idiot. So meanwhile, while they stole him, of course, they’re calling 911, the police show. Because that’s contestant number one. Second one is a bunch of women from Rochester who went to Chicago to celebrate a friend’s birthday. And they went to this really fancy restaurant. Now, the restaurant didn’t take reservations, but they do have one of these online wait list systems where you put your name and phone number on it. And they’ll call you and say, we expect to have a table in 30 minutes. So they use their real name and phone number. They show up, you know, when they’re when they and they show up. They run up a $260 bill, and then they skip on the bill. And after they skip on the bill, they go online, and they post, and they brag, and they even tag the name of the restaurant they skipped out on. And, of course, they tag the restaurant name. The restaurant sees it. Yep, this is the group that stuck us. And they call the police and the police go track him down using their cell phone number. So which one of those was the stupidest criminal? The guy that stole the Tesla truck and went to get his stuff back or the women who skipped out on the villain and bragged about it?
SPEAKER 14 :
Those are a close second. Let’s just say that. A close second, Joe. God. Unbelievable. Joe, man, I appreciate it. Thank you for calling in and helping out today. I mean that sincerely. Thank you, thank you. No problem, John. You take care. All right, man. Have a great night. Appreciate you, Joe. Up next, Roof Savers of Colorado. And, yes, all under one roof. That is Roof Savers of Colorado. Give Dave a call today, 303-710-6916.
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SPEAKER 12 :
The best export we have is common sense. You’re listening to Rush to Reason.
SPEAKER 14 :
All right, we are back. Scott Garlis joining us now. Lots to talk about today, Scott, because of everything that’s gone on, not just this last week since we talked, but today in particular. So welcome. How are you?
SPEAKER 11 :
Yeah, I’m okay. How are you? Is that allergies?
SPEAKER 14 :
Oh, yeah. And then I got a sinus infection to boot. So but I’ll be all right. I’ll live.
SPEAKER 11 :
Oh, man, I ask because I’ve been dealing with the same, and it’s brutal out here right now.
SPEAKER 14 :
Oh, yeah, it’s awful. But anyways, you know, I’ll live. Not a big deal. The bond market, stock market, we saw cheese. I don’t know how to even explain it today, Scott. It’s like everything that everybody was talking bad about the market the last two days came back today.
SPEAKER 11 :
Yes, yes. So the big difference here, obviously, was the… the White House saying we’re going to do a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most countries except for China. And what they were saying was everybody’s going to have this 10%. The rest of it we’re going to back down on for now. But China, they’re taking up to 125%. Yep.
SPEAKER 14 :
Which, really quick, I’m surprised that – given the comments about China that the stock market still did as good as it did, because I figured they would still pull back and say, well, we don’t like what’s going on with the situation with China, so we’re still going to pull back. So I was shocked at that, actually.
SPEAKER 11 :
Well, I think it’s fair, and that’s a good question. And I think there are a couple of different things going on here. So the first was, leading up to the event last week, So Wall Street had set their expectation around 15% being a base case tariff that would be put in place by the Trump administration for reciprocal tariffs. And then what they came out with was they wound up averaging out to like 22% to 25%. So that was sort of 20% was sort of the worst, and that came in higher. So that really threw people off, and they got worried about, other countries coming back and throwing up tariff barriers. And Smoot-Hawley, for anybody unfamiliar with that, the Smoot-Hawley tariff act in 1930, which was credited with making depression worse, that became a very topical conversation of the day. Like, oh my gosh, we’re going back to Smoot-Hawley. Okay, really quick, just as a side note, really quick.
SPEAKER 14 :
These guys aren’t really that dumb, are they? I mean, our economy isn’t anywhere close to where it was in the 30s. Not even close.
SPEAKER 11 :
No, not at all. I mean, personally, I think Peter Navarro might be that dumb, but I don’t think the rest of them are. And so I think what happened was we saw this reaction. I think Scott Besson got sort of more of the presence here. And Scott Besson has sort of… you know, from the get-go, he has said, we want to do this, but we want to do it in a phased-in approach. We want to do it gradually and give people the opportunity to work something out with us. And so, you know, I think Besant sort of got more of the conversation after they saw that the I don’t think Trump wants to crash the economy. Trump wants to make this economy better.
SPEAKER 14 :
Absolutely.
SPEAKER 11 :
And he’s trying to do that.
SPEAKER 14 :
Absolutely.
SPEAKER 11 :
And so maybe he was given some bad advice and some bad math, and they went a little aggressively on the… Well, or… And here’s another question I’ve got for you.
SPEAKER 14 :
Or… Did he know doing what he did in the wide-sweeping hand that he was doing when it comes to tariffs and so on, did he know that some of this would be the result? Because, by the way, I could have almost predicted all of what happened over the past week or so. I don’t think anybody else… would have got that two wrong either. So the reality is we all knew what the outcome would be. And my point is, did he play this exactly the way it needed to be played, including now going to China saying, guess what, guys? You’re too late coming to the table. You’re screwed. We’re still putting tariffs on you.
SPEAKER 11 :
So, yes, I think everybody got freaked out about 25% across the board. And, you know, depending on where you work, way worse, but it averaged out around 25%. And now you’re looking at 10%. You’re like, hey, 10% is a way better way. It’s a way better number to be looking at. So one of the other things that happened today that I think was very important, and this happened before the White House announced this stuff, but Scott Besson came out and said, look, he talked about how that number had gone up to 75 or more than 75 countries had come back. and said they wanted to figure out a deal, which is what they wanted.
SPEAKER 14 :
Which, really quick, I want to step in for a moment, because I think a lot of people are thinking, well, you know, Trump just reversed everything that he said he was going to do initially, and he got scared. He looked at the bond market, he looked at the stock market, and that’s why he did what he did. Scott, I don’t see it that way. I think what Trump did was said, listen, we’ve got 75 countries now that have come that we’ve got to get a deal made, and the reality is we’re not going to be able to do that overnight. Let’s pause this for 90 days while we get these deals worked out.
SPEAKER 11 :
And that’s right, and that’s exactly where I’m going. And so what Besson said this morning, he said, look, he thinks we’re going to reach – he envisions reaching trade agreements with all of our allies, and that’s going to lay the groundwork for a collective approach toward taking on China.
SPEAKER 09 :
Mm-hmm.
SPEAKER 11 :
and addressing what he says is an unbalanced trade structure. Right, right. And that’s all over the world.
SPEAKER 14 :
And it is. I mean, you and I have talked about that many times. It’s not just unbalanced as in the amount of goods that go back and forth, but the other thing, Scott, that’s got to get taken care of, and I believe that this administration is on the right track to do so, is also this whole, you know, everything from the tech side and so on and how they’re stealing stuff from us on an ongoing basis. That also has to end.
SPEAKER 11 :
That’s right, and that’s what Trump tried to do the first time around. And look, it was harrowing in the first go-round. You remember at the end of 2018, Trump was trying to get the Fed to back off, and he was also getting into a back-and-forth with China in trade. And the S&P 500 dropped 19.8% before China finally said, hey, we want to fix things. And Powell came out and said, hey, look, we’re not raising interest rates anymore, and we’re actually thinking about cutting them. And everything changed after that. But it was, you know, we got today, where we started out, we might have entered bear market territory in the S&P 500. And instead, what we got at the end of the day was a very different story. We closed yesterday down about 19%. So we got close. But we didn’t get there. And, yeah, I mean, I don’t… And overall, what was it up today?
SPEAKER 14 :
I didn’t look. What was the ending today?
SPEAKER 11 :
Oh, my God, I think we closed up 9.6% on the S&P and 12.5% on the NASDAQ. Okay, okay. So there is a rumor that came out on Monday, and I don’t think it was a rumor, but Kevin Hassett said we’re looking to cut deals with people, and the S&P 500 went from down 4% to up 4% in a heartbeat. That’s an 8% move, similar to what we saw today. And so what it told people was, There is a lot of money sitting out there waiting to buy because, you know, if there are a lot of people that think Trump is trying to do better things for the economy, but they don’t want to step in front of a falling knife, for lack of a better term, because they don’t know quite yet what. Some of his strategy is going to be – he hasn’t laid out a ton of the details, and now they’ve got a better sense today.
SPEAKER 14 :
And some of that – believe me, I wish at times – my son and I talk about this all the time. I wish he did a better job of communicating some of that, although I look at the flip side of that and think, okay, wait a minute. If he laid out everything that he actually wants to do and he did an explanation of things – He wouldn’t be able to now do this end-around, which we’ll get to in a minute, but this end-around with the Fed, which is essentially what he’s doing right now. We saw that even with bonds today, T-bills. So the reality is he’s forcing the Fed’s hand to do something that, quite frankly, Scott, you and I have been talking about for a while. They wouldn’t do otherwise.
SPEAKER 11 :
That’s exactly right. So Jerome Powell spoke last Friday, since we last talked. And Trump came out before Powell spoke and said, hey – You know, please cut interest rates.
SPEAKER 09 :
Right.
SPEAKER 11 :
And Powell got obstinate during that talk and was basically like, we’re not cutting interest rates. We’re going to wait this out and see what’s going to happen. And it’s I mean, look, the Fed has a 200 basis point rate cut cushion.
SPEAKER 14 :
Correct. They can come down a point with no problem whatsoever. They could do two half point cuts with no problem.
SPEAKER 11 :
That’s exactly right. And so then what you saw in the meantime, so as we got to this point today, what you started to see as well is you started to see some people watching stocks go down and they wanted to go for the safety of cash. So whether they wanted to cash in, especially fund managers, some of these mutual fund managers did not want to cash in on stocks that they believed could come back. because they were crashing right now. We’re not crashing, we’re going down. And they were like, there could be a rally tomorrow because Trump could say something like he said today. So they started selling Treasury bonds because Treasury bonds have been rallying their safety assets. Well, so what’s been going on since the financial crisis is hedge funds have been doing a basis point trade in the Treasury market because it’s so stable. And so what they’re doing by doing that is they’re buying Treasury bonds and selling futures because they’re capturing the basis point difference, which isn’t huge, but it’s in their favor and minting money there. But the problem is when you’re talking about five basis points, that’s not a lot. So you have to lever it up multiple times. But you’re doing this on margin, which means you’re putting 20% down, right? So if you’re leveraging $10 million… 50 times, well, all of a sudden you have a lot of risk because you’re 10 million long and 10 million short.
SPEAKER 03 :
Right.
SPEAKER 11 :
Which is $20 million of exposure, but it’s offsetting itself.
SPEAKER 14 :
Yeah.
SPEAKER 11 :
And then if you multiply that by 50, you know… Right. Those numbers get big.
SPEAKER 14 :
That’s a big number. That’s right.
SPEAKER 11 :
It’s a billion dollars.
SPEAKER 14 :
Right.
SPEAKER 11 :
And on $10 million of cash you put down.
SPEAKER 09 :
Right.
SPEAKER 11 :
So… Then all of a sudden, when you start seeing people sell treasuries because they want to get cash on hand right now and they’re going to come back to them eventually, but until this passes. So that puts downward pressure all of a sudden on treasury prices and yields start going back up. So all of a sudden that. the basis point trade, where they’re trying to capture those slim margins, but they’re levering it up to make it turn into a lot of money, that gets out of whack. And all of a sudden, they start losing money, and they get calls from the brokerage houses. They’re lending them money to do this. They get margin calls, and they have to put up more money. So they have to start unwinding some of those trades. And then you throw on top of that, China has supposedly been one of the ways they’re trying to get back in the U.S. is to sell 10-year treasury holdings and drive borrowing costs up. And I know that’s a lot to digest, but so it threw the treasury market out of whack. And that’s why we saw over the last few days, the 10-year yield closed below 4% on Friday, and it shot up to 4.5% at one point today. I will bet you, We’re going to go back below 4%, and we’re probably going to go a lot lower than that once the Fed starts cutting.
SPEAKER 14 :
Got it.
SPEAKER 11 :
But it’s— Okay, so really quick, there’s a question.
SPEAKER 14 :
When will they do that, do you think? There’s a meeting coming up there early May, right? There’s the next meeting early May, right?
SPEAKER 11 :
Yeah. To be honest, I wouldn’t be surprised if they cut by 25 basis points at that meeting.
SPEAKER 14 :
Okay.
SPEAKER 11 :
Um, and I think by the end of the year, you could see four to five rate cuts.
SPEAKER 14 :
Okay. Even though they said initially we’re not doing that.
SPEAKER 11 :
That’s correct.
SPEAKER 14 :
Yeah.
SPEAKER 11 :
I think they, I don’t think they have a choice. I think they’ve got, they’ve sort of, everybody stared down the barrel and be like, you know, look, there’s a positive outcome here. There are better things that are going to happen, but you know, Let’s stop penalizing businesses, households. What about all these banks that could free up lending capacity if you could get the yields down on some of these treasury securities they hold? And they go back into the green on their holdings. That makes a big economic difference.
SPEAKER 14 :
That’s right. I want to talk to you about this, too, really quick, because if you read one thing on X, you read all sorts of things. There’s a guy by the name of CJ that talked about why there is no reference to the Triffin dilemma when discussing Trump’s tariffs. It explains why the U.S. is caught in a financial paradox and how this trade war, if taken to its end, I guess that’s a key word there, will cause us to lose our status as the world’s reserve currency. Now, I don’t know who this guy is, but I’ll tell you straight up. He’s dead wrong. We are not going to lose our status as the world’s reserve currency, period, no matter what happens. It’s not going to happen.
SPEAKER 11 :
I agree. So what I’ve seen with that is all the hipsters, they’ve been saying this for – they scare the heck out of people by saying this because we all hold dollars. They’re like, oh, my God, your dollar is going to become worthless. You buy my investment service now and do what I tell you.
SPEAKER 09 :
Right.
SPEAKER 11 :
And they’re all really jumping on it now. because they know people are scared. They’re like, end of the world’s coming. You’re screwed. You better buy gold. You better buy silver. You better cash out of everything. And it’s just, and they, you know, so it’s unfortunate. You know, I saw somebody too that the Fed has these typical meetings that happen in between policy meetings. And I saw some guy out there the other day that took one of those, like Fed’s having emergency meeting later today. They’re cutting by 50 basis points. just trying to scare people into clicking on what he’s trying to sell them. It’s unfortunate. I’d love to see more stuff like that regulated, because that hurts people, and that scares people.
SPEAKER 14 :
Yeah, because it’s false financial information, by the way, as you know.
SPEAKER 11 :
Yeah, and they make bad decisions at times like this.
SPEAKER 14 :
That’s right.
SPEAKER 11 :
And it hurts them for the rest of their lives. I agree. And they’ve worked hard for that money. I agree. Yeah, sorry. No, no, you’re right.
SPEAKER 14 :
Okay, what do you say about – I saw this this morning. I don’t know how much of this – again, you don’t know how much to believe and what will this have as far as an effect goes and so on. But they were talking this morning about how China – one of the things that they’re going to do is even require a quote-unquote license to buy some of the more precious metals on the – on the periodic table, if you would, requiring a license even to buy certain things. Are they really going to go down that path? Are they that dumb?
SPEAKER 11 :
They could. I mean, they’re going to want to play every card they can to get the best deal they can. I think that’s what it ultimately comes down to. But back to what you said at the beginning, China doesn’t have anybody else’s best interest but their own. I mean, look, We’re all looking out for themselves, but they’re really looking out for themselves. They’re trying to steal everything they can from everybody to make it for themselves, flood the world with cheap crap, and screw every other country over, and try to be in charge somehow. And if people want to go for that, then that’s… But no, I don’t think… If China does that, it’s not going to last long.
SPEAKER 14 :
I agree. Scott, how do folks find you?
SPEAKER 11 :
Yeah, sure. Twitter, LinkedIn, or, gosh, Substack. C. Scott Garlis.
SPEAKER 14 :
Awesome. Scott, I always appreciate it. Thank you, sir, very much.
SPEAKER 11 :
John, thanks so much for your time.
SPEAKER 14 :
All right, we’ll be right back. Affordable Interest Mortgage, 720-895-0500.
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SPEAKER 12 :
This isn’t Rage Radio. This is Real Relatable Radio. Back to Rush to Reason. Dave, welcome. Go ahead, sir.
SPEAKER 21 :
Hey, so that was a good… Yeah, I loved listening to him. It got… At times, he was kind of speaking Greek.
SPEAKER 14 :
Yeah, he gets into the weeds sometimes where I have to really follow along. You’re correct on that, Dave.
SPEAKER 21 :
Oh, man. I had a question. Now, what do you think… believe in what Trump is doing I think he’s such an incredible negotiator I read his book art of the deal and it just steps into his mind and how he negotiates and how he just abused mayor Koch so I’m he’s just an incredible negotiator I’m wondering you know I’m looking at how this is affecting crypto and if I The SEC, once we get the SEC guy in, how do you think that’s going to affect cryptocurrencies?
SPEAKER 14 :
Well, and that’s a good question, and by no means am I a crypto expert. There was a move up in the crypto market today, about a 7% move up. I just checked it, Dave. In my opinion, and I’ve had several interviews with folks, Bitcoin is the only crypto right now to own as far as I’m concerned. I think the rest of them are far, far, far too volatile. That one alone is volatile as it is. Now, typically with crypto, the stronger the market, the stronger the economy, the better crypto does. It sort of goes hand in hand with what’s going on with the stock market. Typically, not always, but typically.
SPEAKER 21 :
Okay, because when I look at Bitcoin, I mean, yeah, it’s not very volatile. It’s not going to move fast. way up and it’s not going to move way down, hopefully, during this administration. Looks like the volatility is with XRP. Yes. Because I’ve seen that. Man, I’ve seen that.
SPEAKER 14 :
Even Bitcoin started out, and you could be right under Trump, and it started out in the $60,000 range and went all the way up to over $100,000. It’s sitting right now at $82,720. Yes. So it’s looking like
SPEAKER 21 :
Once we get the SEC guy who’s favorable to crypto and Trump is favorable to crypto, we might be looking at some huge gains, especially with the more volatile cryptos like XRP. That’s got a lot of utility.
SPEAKER 14 :
I won’t argue that. I think the biggest thing with crypto, in my opinion, Dave, is it has to become more mainstream or more people believe in it. That’s what they’ve got to do to make it more viable.
SPEAKER 21 :
Yes, yes, indeed. Great show, John.
SPEAKER 14 :
Thanks, Dave, man. Appreciate you, as always. Yes, and again, folks, I’m not an expert when it comes to crypto in any way, shape, or form. I own very little in crypto. I just looked at mine a moment ago. Three grand or so is all I own. I do not own a lot at all. And by the way, that three grand, I only invested way back when, probably half that dollar amount, and it’s grown to that over the years. I don’t touch it. I don’t take it out. I just let it sit there and do its thing. And where is it going to end up on down the road? To Dave’s point a moment ago, honestly, folks, I don’t know. I do think that the more mainstream it becomes, and some would say, well, it already is. Well, no, it’s not. There’s a lot of folks out there that have heard of it, that know of it, but have no idea how to use it. So until it gets to where it’s mainstream as in the majority, and I mean I’m talking 60%, 70% of people are using it, then I see some real viability and I see some real traction with it. And I think, yes, it’s going to go way up in price to Dave’s point. But I think it’s going to be very volatile until that actually happens. And the question is, will that ever happen? Will you ever get to a 60%, 70% saturation point with Bitcoin in this case? Folks, I don’t know. I really don’t know. They’re trying their best to make it more user-friendly, I guess you could say, where more people can use it to buy things, sell things, and so on. But until that becomes really seamless, like a dollar bill, by the way, I don’t see that changing a whole lot. Again, I could be completely wrong on that. I am not by any means a crypto expert. My biggest thing with crypto is it’s not backed by anything. I know I’ve said that a bunch of times, but it’s not backed by anything. It’s backed simply by the faith in it. Now, some would come back and say, well, the U.S. dollar is no different. Well… other than the U.S. dollar has the entire United States citizenry and government behind it. That’s a little different than Bitcoin. So they’re really not one and the same in that regard. Yes, the U.S. dollar actually has more backing it than crypto does by a long shot. Veteran Windows and Doors is next. 35% off up to three windows. Four or more, you get 40% off free labor on either one of those. Just go to klzradio.com and find Dave.
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SPEAKER 12 :
Suck it up, buttercup.
SPEAKER 14 :
Back to Rush to Reason. Hey, before we end, Mike from Cheyenne or Wyoming called in and said that he had seen a Colorado license plate, one of the In God We Trust license plates, which we kind of, I don’t want to say we were instrumental in, but we did some interviews and helped out as much as we could and so on. And yes, that was something that ended up passing, I believe, last year. I personally… Have not seen any of them on the road. So, Mike, you’re the first that I’ve even heard of anybody seeing one out on the road. So thank you for reporting back on that. Mike’s point was, thank you, Colorado, for doing that. So, yeah, I mean, it’s a great license plate. It’s one of those plates that you can actually pay a little extra. I think it’s $25, and you can, it’s either $25 or $50. Don’t quote me on that. You can look that up for yourself and find out. But if you want one of those plates, yes, those are now available in God we trust. That’s it for today, guys. Have a great night. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560.
