HR3 Recession Reality Check: Are We In One? What It Means for Rates, Home Values & Markets 4-17-25 by John Rush
SPEAKER 03 :
This is Rush to Reason.
SPEAKER 06 :
You are going to shut your damn yapper and listen for a change because I got you pegged, sweetheart. You want to take the easy way out because you’re scared. And you’re scared because if you try and fail, there’s only you to blame. Let me break this down for you. Life is scary. Get used to it. There are no magical fixes.
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With your host, John Rush.
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My advice to you is to do what your parents did.
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Get a job first. You haven’t made everybody equal. You’ve made them the same, and there’s a big difference.
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Let me tell you why you’re here. You’re here because you know something. What you know you can’t explain, but you feel it. You’ve felt it your entire life, that there’s something wrong with the world. You don’t know what it is, but it’s there. It is this feeling that has brought you to me.
SPEAKER 09 :
Are you crazy? Am I? Or am I so sane that you just blew your mind?
SPEAKER 10 :
It’s Rush to Reason with your host, John Rush. Presented by Cub Creek Heating and Air Conditioning.
SPEAKER 04 :
All right, we are back. Hour number three, Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. Myself, Kurt Rogers, joining me now, Affordable Interest Mortgage. Hello, Kurt.
SPEAKER 13 :
Hello, John. How are you?
SPEAKER 04 :
I’m good. I’m good.
SPEAKER 13 :
Are we having fun yet?
SPEAKER 04 :
We’re always having fun, and the weather will be interesting this weekend. So for all of you that are out there that have been watching the weather, they don’t know what’s going to happen. They can’t get it forecasted right. Just go with the flow.
SPEAKER 13 :
We’re not going to be able to change it.
SPEAKER 04 :
That’s all you can do. Just roll with it.
SPEAKER 13 :
Get your jackets out. Get your shoes out because it could come.
SPEAKER 04 :
That’s right. Speaking of things we can’t change because we don’t have any effect on it is interest rates, things along those lines. There’s folks out there talking about recession. Are we in one? Are we not? What are your thoughts?
SPEAKER 13 :
No, I don’t think we’re in one. Are we headed for one? It’s possible. A lot of people will talk about it and get afraid about it, but they understand what a recession really is and how many times we’ve been in them over the last 20 to 40 years. It’s six consecutive months of gross domestic product decline. The stock market is softer. Unemployment is going up. People aren’t spending as much. We haven’t seen that. Now, we may have had three or four or five months, but it’s six months that we’re going to need. So I don’t think we’re there yet. But even if we get there, it’s not like the world just falls apart.
SPEAKER 04 :
Right. It’s okay. No, I know you’re right, and I’ve talked about that here of late where there are even some that would say, listen, a little bit of a slowdown may actually help because you’d get some adjustments with mortgage rates and things along those lines which would stimulate the economy and so on. Now, I am one that feels that, and most everybody listening knows my feelings on this, I think the Fed has been – Just like they were slow in raising rates, I think they’ve been too slow in lowering them. They’ve done a little bit of rate adjustment, but not near enough to keep things stimulated. They’re, frankly, worried about things that, honestly, I don’t think they need to be worried about, tariffs being one of them. I explained a lot of that in the last hour as to where I think things are going to go when it comes to even prices and things along those lines. You’re already seeing oil prices come down and so on. Believe me, folks, I don’t think I’m wrong, and not that I’ve got a crystal ball, but I live on Main Street. and the Fed lives on Wall Street.
SPEAKER 13 :
Well, the feds can manipulate their main point to anything they want. Normally, it’s unemployment or inflation. That’s what they’ve been talking about this whole time with how to play with rates. They said if inflation comes down, we can lower the rates because the unemployment is just fine. Well, yesterday, Powell spoke up and says, no, if inflation is going to go up, we’re not going to lower rates. We may raise them. And I’m thinking to myself- What an idiot, by the way.
SPEAKER 04 :
Sorry, he just is.
SPEAKER 13 :
Well, with the tariffs going on, They only are going to be for one month. That’ll happen one time. So it’s not going to be a consistent thing. But he’s kind of given himself an out and put it all back on inflation. Inflation is under control much better than it was before.
SPEAKER 04 :
And I think it’s going to stay that way. And, again, I explained it in the entire last hour as to how I believe that’s going to be kept in check and so on. And, again, I’m not Jerome Powell. I’m not the Fed. Although, and I guess I can mention this now. I was going to mention it sometime while we were on, Kurt. And, again, this is rhetoric coming from Donald Trump, which I understand. I mean, Trump has lashed out at Powell, saying that his termination cannot come fast enough. I think Trump is looking at every way possible to get rid of Jerome Powell. I’m not sure that that’s the right thing to do either, but I don’t think Jerome Powell is handling things correctly. You guys have heard me, and I know some of you disagree with me in that you think Jerome Powell is doing things very well. I would argue that. I think Jerome Powell could have done a lot of things to stimulate the economy even more than they are right now and even fend off some of what’s happening in regards to the quote-unquote trade wars, but he’s not going to do it. He’s going to sit back and watch. That’s what he’s going to do.
SPEAKER 13 :
He’s focusing on one issue, like I talked about with inflation, and not looking at the short-term, long-term picture of what’s going on.
SPEAKER 04 :
No, he’s not looking at the fact that we’ve got a very stagnant housing market in this country, and we have had now for a couple of years. And the reality is he could change that literally, Kurt, overnight if he wanted to.
SPEAKER 13 :
And we saw glimpses of that before the tariffs and what has happened with that. When that was moving, the bond market was changing and interest rates were going down and the phone just started to ring. More people understood. And they’re not talking about rates in the five. They were talking rates in the low to mid sixes. That will stimulate. It’s not much of a move. Half a point. Just open the door a little bit.
SPEAKER 04 :
And that’s where my complaint with Jerome Powell comes from is, A, he doesn’t have a mortgage. He doesn’t look at mortgages. He doesn’t care about mortgages. He doesn’t care about the mortgage market. I’m being straight up honest. I don’t think Jerome Powell cares. Jerome Powell cares about one thing, one thing only, and that’s what Kurt was talking about a moment ago. You know, where is inflation coming in at? And, yes, I know they’re doing some other things in regards to the Fed balance sheet and so on, but the reality is if he really wanted to stimulate economic growth in the United States of America— which is part of his job, by the way, he would lower rates. And I know, before anybody sends me a message, I understand that the short-term interest rates are not a direct hit on long-term rates like mortgages. I get that. Believe me, I understand that. But I also know this, and so do you. Even though they’re not directly related, they will come down if regular rates come down. If short-term rates come down, long-term will as well.
SPEAKER 13 :
Right, because what happens, you have more people putting money into the bond market because they’re saving money on this end. So the money flow pushes the bond market to drop.
SPEAKER 04 :
Right, which means they will come down.
SPEAKER 13 :
And when I talk the bond market, I’m always talking the 10-year bond. That really controls mortgage rates more than anything. And I don’t think a lot of consumers understand how mortgage rates get to their number. They’ll call me up and say, what’s the rate? The easiest way to look is go to whatever the 10-year bond is for today. For example, it’s 4.3. Add 2.5 points to that, and that’s roughly going to be your interest rate. Because that’s what they’re loaning money at. The banks that are loaning money are paying the 4.3, but they’re charging the 6.8. They’re making 2.5. That’s pretty much how that number flows, has for years.
SPEAKER 04 :
And I don’t see that. Well, it will never change because that’s the relationship they have with one another, right? It works.
SPEAKER 13 :
10-year bond market is good, safe money to invest into. It’s guaranteed by the government. 98% of the bond market is controlled by outside money. So when they talk about the dollar being soft, that’s not the case because the rest of the world is using those bond markets to make their money.
SPEAKER 04 :
And Kurt is correct. So right now, today’s yield is 4.31. And you add two points to that to get a mortgage rate? Two and a half. Two and a half points to get a mortgage rate, meaning it’s 6.8%.
SPEAKER 13 :
Could be 275, two and a half, depending on the lender and what they offer, but yeah.
SPEAKER 04 :
So again, if you could just get that down even a half a point, make that 3.75, 3.8.
SPEAKER 13 :
It was 3.85 eight days ago.
SPEAKER 04 :
And it could go back to that if Jerome Powell would work on it.
SPEAKER 13 :
If it gets back to 3.85, watch out.
SPEAKER 04 :
All right, we’ll take a break. We’ll come back. Any questions, by the way, for Kurt, let us know, 303-477-5600. You can also text us a question, 307-200-8222. Geno’s Auto Service is next. Anything you need when it comes to your vehicle, Geno’s is there for you. It’s genosautoservice.com, and Geno’s is with a J.
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SPEAKER 03 :
This is Rush to Reason on KLZ 560.
SPEAKER 04 :
All right, we are back. Kurt Rogers, Affordable Interest Mortgage with us today. And I should have mentioned earlier his phone number, 720-895-0500. If there’s any questions you’ve got when it comes to mortgages, rates, where things are headed, the housing market, all of that, give Kurt a call. And just really quick as a side note. probably kurt and i were talking i don’t know last summer there were naysayers out there talking about oh you know the housing market’s going to crash and be careful in these particular areas and blah blah blah blah blah blah now there have been some pockets i read some things of late where there’s some places in you know florida for example where there’s some uh price adjustments happening some folks are tired of the insurance end of things there and they’re getting ready to maybe exit because they’re just tired of all of that and by the way that that’s nothing to do with The housing market itself, that’s an insurance thing totally unrelated to housing.
SPEAKER 13 :
You bring up a good point. All across the country, property taxes have gone up. Homeowner’s insurance has gone up. And it’s not, you know, 5%, 6%. We’re talking 30%, 40%, 50%, doubling it sometimes. Well, that forces people to where they can’t afford the house. They’ve got to start moving, which means they have to lower their price to get out of it. So that wasn’t a housing market problem. That was… one of the things that goes with the housing market.
SPEAKER 04 :
I’m glad you said it. And again, my point is be careful of the naysayers that are out there. A lot of these guys, and I’ve said this before, there are people all over social media. I’ve seen them on the car side. I’ve seen them on the real estate side. I’ve seen them in business, politics, and so on. And these guys will say sometimes the most outlandish things possible. And part of that is because there’s a shock factor there. If you’ll watch them, and click on whatever it is that they’re promoting or doing or so on, or you subscribe or you watch them regularly, that’s how they make their living. These are individuals that in a lot of cases, they are what they call influencers, and they are literally making their living. off of being on social media, TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, and so on. That’s how they make their living. I know some people don’t understand this, but literally, they’re collecting, there’s checks that are put in their account, or money that is put into their account every month. And some of these people can make as little as $4,000 or $5,000 a month to as much as $100,000 or more in a month’s time. I’m not exaggerating. Some of these people will make a million dollars plus in a year’s time off of what I’m talking about, because if enough people view their videos, And there’s enough ads running in or around those videos. That’s where that revenue comes from and how they make money.
SPEAKER 13 :
Perfect example that the other day I showed my wife. I read an article that says Trump’s tariffs have caused the value of the dollar to drop by 10%.
SPEAKER 04 :
By the way, that’s not true. That’s a pretty good drop. That’s not true, though.
SPEAKER 13 :
Well, it was. So I went and I looked up at the dollar over the last 40 years. Okay. The dollar had a value of $1.10. Okay. When he put in the tariffs, the dollar value went to $1. Well, if you look at just that segment, they were correct, and it’s 10%.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay.
SPEAKER 13 :
But if you go back four or five years, it’s not been above $1 for 30 years. It wasn’t until the last couple of years did it get to $1 to $1.10. So it’s still higher than it’s ever been before, but they want to blame Trump because the dollar’s lost its value.
SPEAKER 04 :
And currently, right, it’s expected to trade at $1.71, basically, and it’ll be $1.03, or $1.03.65 in about 12 months. So actually, it’s the opposite of what some of these naysayers are saying. But they get paid for clicks. That’s right.
SPEAKER 13 :
They get paid for you to read it.
SPEAKER 04 :
Viewers, clicks, all that. Read the whole story. Absolutely, Kurt. You are 100% correct. And by the way, one thing that we don’t talk about enough, and this doesn’t have a lot to do with Kurt, although it can affect Kurt, The weaker the dollar, the better our exports are, meaning we actually sell more as a country. So there’s two sides to that coin as well. A strong dollar works if you’re traveling, by the way, because you can go travel and end up getting more for your money if you go to Europe or Mexico or wherever. But when it comes to if you’re an exporter trying to send things out of the country, that’s a hit. That’s a hurt.
SPEAKER 13 :
In this same article, it talked about 50% of all trade, all buy-sell money movement, all the money was calculated in dollar. 80% has the one side of it being American dollar.
SPEAKER 04 :
Correct.
SPEAKER 13 :
So the dollar’s not getting soft.
SPEAKER 04 :
No, and there’s people out there that will even tell you that it’s going away, it’s going to get replaced by this, by that, it’s going to go digital, this, that, and the other. Bogus. No, it’s not. Sorry, it’s not, folks. No, no. But moving things back here on Kurt’s side when it comes to mortgages and rates and so on, I am one that believes that, and Kurt, you can correct me if I’m wrong, but I would say by mid-summer, if not for sure late summer, you’re going to see rates in the low sixes.
SPEAKER 13 :
Yes.
SPEAKER 04 :
Am I right?
SPEAKER 13 :
I will not disagree with that.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay.
SPEAKER 13 :
The feds are still saying they’re going to drop the rates three times. Now, you’re not going to do that October, November, December. You’ve got to get started a little earlier.
SPEAKER 04 :
I’m still one, and I may be wrong on this, but I think you see a quarter point next month. Yes. It’s a couple of weeks away, by the way. It’s not even that far.
SPEAKER 13 :
We haven’t talked. I don’t disagree with you at all.
SPEAKER 04 :
They’re not going to tell you that, but I think that’s what’s going to happen.
SPEAKER 13 :
But I think the consumer is starting to pay attention and going, okay, if I get a quarter, that’s better than what I thought might be a point, point and a half a year ago. They’re starting to understand that this rate is pretty average and I can move forward with it.
SPEAKER 04 :
And there are some – I mean, there’s people out there. I follow lots of realtors and such. And, folks, there are homes that are selling in some areas. There are pockets that are doing very well. There are – segments of the marketplace price-wise that are doing very well. And by the way, it seems to be on the low end and the high end. The average homes right now, I’m sorry to say, but it’s the average homes right now that are struggling the most when it comes to buying and selling. Am I correct, Kurt?
SPEAKER 13 :
If they’re turnkey, we’ve talked about this. If they’re turnkey, you’re going to do okay with it. If they’re not turnkey, you’re going to have to be more negotiable in many areas of that.
SPEAKER 04 :
Right. So some of you that are looking to purchase or refi or maybe you want to make a move this summer, you want to do something different, whether it be because your kids are changing schools or they want to change schools. I’ve got a friend of mine that’s doing some things along those lines because the kids want to change schools. So he’ll be looking at doing something different along those lines. Whatever your reasoning, I do believe if you can time things correctly. And by the way, this can be done. You can still get moving up. One thing I don’t want to see people lose out on, Kurt, is I do think there’s some good buys on the purchasing sides of things because of what you said a moment ago. There are some homes out there where they’re not a bidding war. There are people that are willing to negotiate a little bit on price and so on. Take advantage of that. It doesn’t matter if the rates are in the high sixes. As long as you can qualify and get things done, how long do you need to keep that loan to refi?
SPEAKER 13 :
Seven months.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay? Not that long.
SPEAKER 13 :
No, it’s really not that long. And take that to make up the difference for the cost of the refi. We’ve kind of talked about this in the past. If we’re looking and headed towards a recession, A, we can’t change it. We can’t change the weather. We can’t change that. So what do you do to prepare yourself for what happens in a recession? In every recession going back to 1965, rates went down a little. The biggest one was the mortgage meltdown in 08. It went down a point and a half. But let’s look past that. First of all, once you got past that, the rates continued to go down more than they did during the recession. So we’re going to see rates continue to slide south as they go along.
SPEAKER 04 :
I agree.
SPEAKER 13 :
And home values, while they don’t increase during a recession, they stay steady. But if you look at the 2021 recession we had, they went up 6%, 7% afterwards for the next year. If you look at the one we just had in 08, they went up 12% to 15% after the recession. So there’s a positive understanding what’s coming later. So now’s the time to buy because they’re more negotiable. You can get a better deal on them. and then in six months to a year or two years when the rates move, you can take care of it.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay, let’s use this scenario. Let’s say there’s somebody out there listening where they know there’s some things they need to do to their current home to make it turnkey, make it more sellable, but they don’t quite have all the cash. They maybe could even get some credit cards, some other things paid off. They could do a refi. They know they’re going to sell that home in the next six to 12 months. Is that something with you that they could look at in doing a current refi, fix the home up, get it more value? So they’re maximizing that when they decide to sell in six months to a year.
SPEAKER 13 :
We talked about this on your Money Matters show, and I spent a whole hour. There’s a loan program out now that will give you $75,000. We talked about it on your show also. Right. That is not controlled by loan-to-value. What I mean by that, when somebody wants to refinance their home to get cash out, they understand it’s pretty tough to get above 80% loan-to-value. You have to get a second mortgage, and the rates are higher. Well, this loan will go to 97% loan-to-value at the same rate as 80%. They will give you $75,000 to upgrade the home and six months to do it. So if you’re thinking about moving… It has to be done by a contractor, right?
SPEAKER 04 :
It has to be legit and all of that, correct?
SPEAKER 13 :
No, you have to have a contractor do the work, but you get to manage it.
SPEAKER 04 :
That’s what I meant. But it has to be legit work done and so on.
SPEAKER 13 :
Yeah, if you wanted carpeting or flooring putting, you get a hold of Home Depot and you sign a contract with them. You can’t do the work.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay.
SPEAKER 13 :
But they allow you to do that.
SPEAKER 04 :
And their philosophy, I’m guessing, Kurt, is they know that at the end of the day, this home value is going to increase by X amount anyway, so what do we have to lose?
SPEAKER 13 :
That’s the best part about it. When you look at this 97%, if the home’s worth $500,000, and you get to buy it for $475 because it needs reconditioning, and you spend $75, they’re going to give you 97% of the future value. I see. I want to make sure I explain this right. So if the future value goes from $500 to $550, they will add 10% on that and go to $575 and give you 97% of that number.
SPEAKER 04 :
I see.
SPEAKER 13 :
They want you to spend the money to fix the home up. It helps the market.
SPEAKER 04 :
Because they know at the end of the day, A, it’s helping the market. B, they’re going to help the economy. C, it’s also adding value to that home, and there’s probably not much risk of them losing out because anybody that’s going to put that kind of money into it is looking after the house. They’re trying to maximize that value down the road. It’s a win for everybody is what I’m saying, right?
SPEAKER 13 :
It keeps money. It’s a great program. They used to have a limit of $37,500. They raised it to $75,000. It’s an amazing program. You’ve got six months to do the work. You get to manage it.
SPEAKER 04 :
What’s the catch?
SPEAKER 13 :
You’ve got to have a credit score of at least 620.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay, so the catch is?
SPEAKER 1 :
620.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay, which isn’t super high. So credit score is 620. Any other negatives?
SPEAKER 13 :
No.
SPEAKER 04 :
I mean, you’re able to take a house that you know you needed to put some things into. You’re getting it all dialed in to whether you’re either going to stay in it or sell it, either way. But you’re basically getting to the point, Kurt, where you could take your existing house and really get it all polished up, if you would, quote, unquote. It’s like taking a used car, getting it all detailed, getting tires on it, getting it all ready for sale. You’re making it look better than the rest of the market, meaning when it comes time to sell that car, you can flip it that much faster. That’s essentially what you’re doing with your house, right?
SPEAKER 13 :
That’s correct. And if you want to sell it later, you can. If you want to keep it, you can. One of the nice things about the program is at the end of that six months, and you have the value, and rates have gone down. Let’s say you get a rate of 7%, and rates have gone to 6%. They will automatically refinance it for you for basically no charge.
SPEAKER 04 :
Oh, easy. That’s even better.
SPEAKER 13 :
Because they’ll let you have the bet. Why? Because they know you know how to make payments. You’ve already proved yourself in it.
SPEAKER 04 :
I see. And is this through a regular bank? Is this a federal government deal? How is this being done? Okay, so it’s a governmental deal.
SPEAKER 13 :
And it’s been around for about 40 years.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay. It’s to help people get their home fixed up. So it’s not new. It’s been around for a while.
SPEAKER 13 :
They keep the money flowing through the system.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay. All right. Also, there’s a lot of vets that listen to us out there. You can help vets when it comes to loans. There’s even refi programs available for current loans and so on along those lines, right, when it comes to VA loans and so on.
SPEAKER 13 :
VA loans, as you know, you have a son using his VA. They will do 100%. So if you’re a vet, you don’t need to bring any money to the table. Like this other loan I just talked about, their debt-to-income limits or ratio is a lot higher where most banks want to be between 45 and 50. These government loans will go to 50 to 55. They want to help you get into the home. They want to get you started. They understand the importance to the economy home ownership is.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay. Makes total sense. So why do more people not take advantage of that? Don’t know about it?
SPEAKER 13 :
They don’t know about it. It’s not talked about. Everybody’s talking about the rate on a conventional loan. The market has changed so much. There’s so many specific type of loans for specific consumers, like those that want to not sell their home to a bridge loan to buy a new one. There’s programs out now that will just blow your mind on how well they can help you do that.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay.
SPEAKER 13 :
Because there’s a need for it. People move a lot better. They want something nicer when they see the opportunity.
SPEAKER 04 :
It makes it easier to do that if they do that, and they can typically get the next one bought because it’s not on a contingency and all of that, right? Exactly.
SPEAKER 13 :
There is no contingency. It’s moved on. And you still get the advantage of selling the home at your price. But we get to take it off the system to where it’s not counted against you so you can qualify for the new home.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay. So lots of ways to make these things happen.
SPEAKER 13 :
Lots of ways.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay. All right. We’ll come right back. Questions for Kurt again. Text line 307. 280-222. You can also call us direct, 303-477-5600. Roof Savers of Colorado coming up next, and this applies even to roofing and all of that. Make sure you’re dialed in when it comes to your home. The sale of even depends upon what the roof is like and so on. It’ll go through an inspection, so make sure you’re all dialed in, and Dave Hart can help you with all of that. 303-710-6916.
SPEAKER 01 :
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SPEAKER 03 :
The best export we have is Common Sense. You’re listening to Rush to Reason.
SPEAKER 04 :
All right, we are back. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. Kurt Rogers, by the way, with us, Affordable Interest Mortgage, 720-895-0500. That is Kurt’s number. Feel free to call him, by the way, anytime with any questions that you’ve got. Kurt, one thing we always talk about, and it’s not in my notes, but I wanted to run it past you anyways, because I think right now for some people where they’re thinking, you know, I’ve always wanted to build a home, never taken the time to do it, and I want to make sure I time things correctly. Well, I would say right now that if you’re thinking about doing anything along those lines at all, this is probably as good a time as any. And the reason I say that is you’re going to have a period of time to actually get the home built. And the construction loan is an interest-only deal, and you can talk about how all that works here in a moment. But you’re only going to do an interest-only on the outstanding balance of what you’re doing to get the home built anyways, correct?
SPEAKER 13 :
That’s correct.
SPEAKER 04 :
So it really doesn’t matter whether the rate’s 6% or 7%. That one point’s not going to make or break anything when it comes to getting that house built. Because it’s not a long-term loan. It’s not a long-term thing. And here’s my point. In a lot of cases, you’re going to be 12 to 18 months getting everything finished anyways, and I can almost guarantee you, and I don’t have a crystal ball, but I can almost guarantee you rates will be better in a year to 18 months. Meaning that if you’re going to build and go through all that whole process and do your interest only and then do a final conversion to a permanent loan at that point in time, why not do that now?
SPEAKER 13 :
A lot of people misunderstand how a construction loan works. They’ll go out and see a piece of land and they’ll want to buy the land and do the construction at the same time.
SPEAKER 04 :
Wrong way to do it, by the way.
SPEAKER 13 :
And there’s a reason behind that thinking. let’s say you look at a piece of land that’s $300,000 and you want to put an $800,000 house on it. Okay, so now you’re 1.2 roughly in.
SPEAKER 1 :
1.1.
SPEAKER 04 :
1.1, yeah, 1.1. So you go out to get a loan, a construction loan for 1.1, you’re going to have to come up with 20% down.
SPEAKER 13 :
But if you buy the land…
SPEAKER 04 :
All by itself.
SPEAKER 13 :
All by itself.
SPEAKER 04 :
You’re done.
SPEAKER 13 :
You’re done. And you can owe $100,000. Don’t care. But you’ve got it purchased. The day afterwards, you can go out and get a construction loan, and they will appraise the home again at future value. Home’s going to appraise for $1.3 million. You don’t have to put anything down. You just got your money back to buy the land because of the way they set them up. The rest of it, I did Cherry Creek area. There were a lot of scraping bills many years ago. I did several of them, and it’s just a simple little process you go through. You get the construction, the perm loan. They run it for 12 months if there’s issues and it takes longer. You got another six to make it work. They build in a 10% override. The bank monitors to make sure the work’s done on time. And at the end of it, you do what’s called a takeout loan. You never do a construction loan and sign for the loan that they’re going to give you. You always give yourself the option at the end of that takeout build to where you can go get your money. You come to me about 30 to 45 days prior to the construction loan being finished.
SPEAKER 04 :
Yeah, which having your CO and all that you mean, which you typically will know when you’re getting close to that. They’ll tell you.
SPEAKER 13 :
That’s when we start looking at the real rates and how you want to put the whole thing together.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay. Am I wrong in my thought process?
SPEAKER 13 :
Not at all. There’s a lot of opportunity for that.
SPEAKER 04 :
Well, and the other reason why I say that is because despite what you’ll hear from the news media on tariffs and all of that, believe it or not, because housing right now is a little down, you can build one today about as cheap as you’ve ever been able to in the last several years. So take advantage of that time now before the boom starts again. Does that make sense?
SPEAKER 13 :
Like I talked about with recession, those rates are going to come down, the values are going to go up. those prices are going to change. So, yes, take advantage. It doesn’t get cheaper.
SPEAKER 04 :
So for those of you that have maybe thought about doing something along those lines, now where this doesn’t apply, I want to make sure we’re clear on this because I’ve had this question in the past, where this doesn’t apply is prefabbed homes and things along those lines. So if you’re looking at a modular home or something like that, no, we’re talking about you go out and you can, by the way, as a little reminder, um help to some of you there are a lot of plans on the internet sorry architects but there are there’s a lot of plans that you can buy and i’ve known people that have done this you go find a plan that you like a house that you like and they’re all over the place on the internet by the way And they’ll provide you with the entire set of stamped blueprints, the whole nine yards. You can literally take those to the county, go take those to a GC, figure out exactly what it’s going to cost to build and so on. And literally some of these plans will do all of the legwork for you, including even making some – they’ll limit you. We’ll allow you to do five changes, ten changes, whatever the case may be. They’re not going to let you start from scratch with this pre-plan in place. But I’ve known people – kids even, where they have taken a particular plan, set of plans, gone in and done a few modifications. It’s a lot cheaper way to do it than going out and hiring an architect to sit down and build your plans on the front side. Correct. Right?
SPEAKER 13 :
Yeah. There’s systems out there that can help you get it done. You brought up a loan about a manufacturer. There’s FHA and VA allow you to buy the land and put a piece of land. a pre-built house on it in one loan. And it’s a permanent loan that goes on. And again, if the rates drop by half a point or more, they automatically will refinance it for you. We’re talking anything from $300,000 up to $2 million. Not for FHA, but the construction of perm loan or if you want to buy a 300, go out and buy land. You just can’t buy too much land.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay.
SPEAKER 13 :
They don’t want to go over 10 acres.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay. And somebody texted a moment ago. Actually, they left a voicemail on the text line, which I don’t answer that because I don’t have that. I don’t think I even can. I’ve never talked on the phone on the text line as well. So if you’ve got a question for Kurt specifically, AR text line is 307-200-8222. And you can call in now directly and ask Kurt a question, 303-477-5600, or text me your specific question. I can get that answered as well. You can text it right on the text line as well. In fact, let me just say, text me your question, and I will answer. And again, I have a hard time talking and typing at the same time, so I apologize. I’m not very good at that, Kurt. Bottom line is… When it comes to the whole house building things, it’s not as complicated as some of you think. And some of you thought, you know, I’d really love to just build a custom home. I’ve seen a lot that I really like to buy. In fact, I’ve got a bead on a particular lot. Okay, before you do anything, sit down with Kurt and say, here’s our thoughts. Here’s what we’ve got right now as a home and our equity and so on. And here’s what we’re thinking about doing. Does all of this make sense? And Kirk can literally sit down and say, yep or nope. Or maybe if you do X, Y, Z.
SPEAKER 13 :
I’ll give you different avenues to take depending on what your specifics are.
SPEAKER 04 :
And one thing that he’ll even do is pull a soft credit where it doesn’t ding you at all and really determine, okay, here’s what your score is. How to fix it. Here’s maybe a few things we need to do to make all of this happen. Because remember, when you buy the land, that might make a few changes in some things. So here’s how we can proceed with all of this. But my point is, before you just run out willy-nilly and buy a lot, talk to Kurt first.
SPEAKER 13 :
Yep. I’ve done it before. I’ve done both sides of it.
SPEAKER 04 :
Well, you have for some family members of mine, so it works. It can be done. And my point is, do your research on the front side to determine what you want to do, how you want to do it. And one other thing, too, that you need to check into when it comes to some of the building aspects of things is… Also check with, you know, are you in a city limit? Are you in just an unincorporated area of a county? What will they allow to be built? So before you start spending a bunch of time on the lot and the plans and so on, find out exactly because some counties have restrictions on, hey, you can only build X size house on this particular size lot. Do some research on some of that on the front side before you get too carried away.
SPEAKER 13 :
Yeah, before you spend too much money.
SPEAKER 04 :
Does that make sense? Yes. Okay, so for a lot of you listening, please do some of those things first, and then actually, again, contact Kurt and find out exactly what he can do for you and so on. Okay, so let’s talk about first-time buyers. That’s one thing that we’ve hit on a little bit in the past, and I’ve seen some folks of late to where there are some first-time homebuyers out there that are realizing that, hey, I can buy and save money at the end of the day. How do they do that?
SPEAKER 13 :
We’re starting to see that because 34% of the homes sold are sold to first-time homebuyers. What a first-time homebuyer is, is you could have owned a home in the past as long as you haven’t owned it in the last three years. But it’s designed for someone who’s never owned a home, coming out of college, starting a career. So the goal of it is to, and the whole purpose is to get people into homes because of what it does for the economy. It’s tremendously beneficial. But a first-time home buyer program will go to higher loan values because they understand that a first-time home buyer normally doesn’t have the 20% down.
SPEAKER 04 :
Correct.
SPEAKER 13 :
But unlike anybody else doing a home, if you have less money down and you only have 5% to buy a home, your rate’s going to be higher than a first-time home buyer because they don’t increase the rate because of your loan-to-value. They’re more tolerant on credit scores. So they allow you to buy the home. Anytime you finance a home for over 80%, the majority of the time you’re going to hear of a thing called mortgage insurance. And mortgage insurance can be 0.25% up to 1.5% of the payment. Well, with the first-time homebuyer, that drops to like 0.1%. They give you a special break on that. They go to higher debt-to-income ratio limits. They want to truthfully help you get into it. Along with that then comes this program called the 2-1 buy-down, which we’ve talked about in the past. You’ll qualify at the higher payment, but you’ll get a payment that’s $500 to $700 a month less, so you’ve got time to put in drapes, put in that, you know, different things, decorate the house the way you want. It’s all designed to get you going on buying a home.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay. Any limitations price-wise or anything along those lines when it comes to that?
SPEAKER 13 :
In most cases, they want conforming loan limits, which are about $806,000.
SPEAKER 04 :
That’s substantial.
SPEAKER 13 :
That’s a good-sized home.
SPEAKER 04 :
Yeah, that’s substantial.
SPEAKER 13 :
There are limits sometimes on making too much money on the programs. They don’t want somebody that’s pulling down $150,000, $200,000 a year. They want more money down in that. That makes sense. They’re trying to help you get along. Somebody pulling in $70,000, $80,000, $90,000 a year, they’ll qualify for a first-time home buyer. Along with that, if you don’t have enough down payment, there are programs behind that that can help you with the down payment.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay.
SPEAKER 13 :
If you only have 1% or 2%, there’s programs that can help you get to the other 3% to 5% you need.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay. And you’ve got all the ability to help with all of that?
SPEAKER 13 :
I have 38 lenders. There’s a lot of my lenders that do these.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay. There are a lot of people out there that are willing to do that. What if somebody listening wants to take equity out of their current home to be able to buy the next home and be able to make all of that work? How do you do that?
SPEAKER 13 :
I don’t have enough time to explain both of them. There’s basically two programs.
SPEAKER 04 :
We’ve got ten minutes. You’re good. Go for it. Not quite ten, but about eight.
SPEAKER 13 :
There’s a couple different programs. There’s one to where they will buy your home from you. And they’ll give you the equity that you have out of it, and you still get to sell it for six months later.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay.
SPEAKER 13 :
And I actually have a customer like that now. They want to buy a million-one home, and they’ve got a house they want to sell for $800,000. Their payoff is four. The bank’s going to give them $600,000 cash now. The house is sold. But they’re going to hold it for six months to let them sell it for what they want.
SPEAKER 04 :
I see.
SPEAKER 13 :
They’re going to take that $200,000. They’re going to put it down on that million-one home. So now they qualify only on that payment.
SPEAKER 04 :
I see.
SPEAKER 13 :
Now, I’m going to try to follow along how that works. So once they get that done and they move into the home and in, let’s say, three months from now they sell their home for $800,000, they still got another $200,000. They get to go back to the bank and do what’s called a recast. Give the bank the $200,000 as if they did at the beginning. I see. And they recalculate their loan at the same rate with the number of months left on it and their payment will go down.
SPEAKER 04 :
Because you’re putting that much more money down on the loan. That’s right. Normally, you would put that money down on the loan. It would be less loan amount outstanding, but your payment would not change.
SPEAKER 13 :
That’s correct. So by doing it this way, and the only place you can do a recast is with the bank you have.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay.
SPEAKER 13 :
I can’t help you on a recast. I can tell you who to talk to, but I don’t get paid to do that. That’s something. I see. And a recast costs 500 bucks.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay.
SPEAKER 13 :
So if you want to throw them $50,000 to $100,000, you can reach us.
SPEAKER 04 :
So there are ways to make that work to where if you find a home that you really like and you want to get into it and you’ve got good equity in your current home, you can help them with that.
SPEAKER 13 :
That’s one way. The second way to do it is there’s a lender that will – Not buy your home, but they will give you a loan to cover it and give you the down payment and not charge the payment against you and give you six months to sell it. And now you have the money to buy the home with the full 20% down. I see. You can do it that way. So there’s two different approaches. Everybody’s different depending on which one fits your needs and desires.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay. Lastly, we always talk about this. We’ve got a few minutes left here. Talk to us about self-employed individuals because that’s always a hot topic, and there’s a lot of folks listening that are that typically get turned down from other types of mortgage brokers, programs, and so on because they look at them and say, yeah, no, you’re self-employed. Bye.
SPEAKER 13 :
Self-employed takes more time, like down payment assistance, loan programs, first-time homebuyers. They take more time and a lot of lenders don’t want to, I should say brokers don’t want to get into it. Self-employed, you can buy or refinance your home. Maybe not necessarily at the rate you were hoping to get it, maybe 6.5%, 7%. Maybe you pay 7.5%, but there’s loan programs that will do that. Depending on whether it’s an investment property or primary, there’s a lot of different ways I can look at your tax return, look at your Schedule C, Schedule E. What can I put back into the income, for example? If you’re depreciating off your business, if you’re depreciating a… depreciating your rentals, I get to put that money back in as income. So it depends on how you write it off. If you’re getting ready to file your taxes and you’re thinking about buying a home, do me a favor.
SPEAKER 04 :
Call you first.
SPEAKER 13 :
You don’t even have to do the loan with me. Call me first so I can try to help you set it up because you might be able to do two things, save tax money and still qualify.
SPEAKER 04 :
That’s an art. It’s called a dance. It is called a dance. That’s what I call it, called a dance. You’ve got to know how to do that. You’ve got to know where the figures are at, what the bankers and underwriters are looking at, and making sure you’re satisfying them, and yet at the same token, saving as much on taxes as you possibly can. And what I mean by that is there may be some situations where you want to pay a little bit of tax. not take as many deductions as you may normally. And by the way, this is all legal. I’m not saying anything that’s shady or wrong. You’re just slowing down, in a lot of cases, some deductions that you legally could be taking so that you actually show more profitability, which you are anyways, but we’re talking about the paper sides of things here. Paper. Not what’s in the bank. We’re talking the paper side. So at the end of the day, you can show the mortgage company what we’re actually doing profit-wise, and yet on the IRS side, paying a little bit to get this done, but not paying as much as you normally would by not taking those deductions.
SPEAKER 13 :
Agreed. There’s ways to do that. And you know as well as I do, when you ask a self-employed person how much money they make, well, my company grows $500,000. That’s not how much you made.
SPEAKER 04 :
No. That’s how much you brought in.
SPEAKER 13 :
Yeah, well, I paid myself $300,000. That doesn’t count either. They don’t look at it that way.
SPEAKER 04 :
No, they don’t. There’s a lot of factors that they look at. And, again, if you’ve never done a loan being self-employed, and I know I say this a lot as well. Here’s another tip for you guys. If you’re thinking of being self-employed and you’re thinking about doing anything mortgage-wise, not car or anything like that, but mortgage-wise, and you still are a W-2 employee, do it now, not once you start your business. Because when you start your business, you can’t do anything for two years.
SPEAKER 13 :
Correct.
SPEAKER 04 :
Period.
SPEAKER 13 :
I had a customer just the other day. She’s had her own business for four years. She’s keeping it, but she’s going to work full-time for one of the companies she was 1099 for. They’re paying her a salary. She’s only been there 30 days. The bank will count it because it’s the same work.
SPEAKER 04 :
Same work, same industry. She’s going from 1099 to W-2. They like W-2s. Just the way it works. So, again, if you are now a W-2 employee, you’re thinking about doing anything before you start the business. Or maybe you’re even doing the business on the side and you’re thinking of going full-time there. Get your finances all in a row now because it’ll be two years before you do anything otherwise.
SPEAKER 13 :
And if you’ve only been in business for a year, you’re going to need about the only way to get done self-employed is going to be bank statements.
SPEAKER 04 :
And that’s not as easy as you think. So, you know, again, you’re better off just getting things done while you’re W-2. That’s correct. And then waiting those two years while you’re being self, you know, while you’re starting your business, being self-employed and all of that. All right. Disclaimers. Do we need to do any?
SPEAKER 13 :
NMLS 217147 regulated by Dora, equal credit lender.
SPEAKER 04 :
All right. That’s it, Kurt, as always, man. Appreciate you. Thank you, John. Always a joy. Always a lot of info. Those of you that want to get a hold of Kurt directly, 720-895-0500. That’s Kurt Rogers, Affordable Interest Mortgage. Again, 720-895-0500. And all this, by the way, fits into your future retirement plans. Talk to Golden Eagle Financial today, Al Smith. Just find him at klzradio.com.
SPEAKER 12 :
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SPEAKER 04 :
All right, Kevin Flesch, he is trial-tested, trial-ready, never afraid to go to court. He can help you on the civil or criminal sides of things. Call him today, 303-806-8886.
SPEAKER 05 :
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SPEAKER 04 :
All right, Dr. Scott Faulkner, if you’re looking for a doctor that thinks again like we do here, we talked to Dr. Kelly and Steve House on Thursdays, and I’ll tell you what, Dr. Scott fits right in. We have him on our program on a routine basis, and he is, in my opinion, one of the best doctors out there. Call him today, 303-663-6990.
SPEAKER 11 :
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SPEAKER 15 :
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SPEAKER 03 :
It’s time to leave your safe space. This is Rush to Reason on KLZ 560.
SPEAKER 04 :
All right, that’s going to do it for today. And I apologize. I should have looked at tomorrow’s movies. Let me do that really quick. It is the Amateur and Warfare. And then Movie Rental Hour for the second hour will be your favorite war movies. And, of course, honor of, you know, warfare. So… Guys, have a great night. Be careful out there. The snow might be coming in later tonight and in through the weekend, but enjoy yourselves. Have a great rest of your evening. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560.
