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In this episode of Rush to Reason, host John Rush delves into the intricate dynamics of the housing market, uncovering the ways recent Federal Reserve decisions impact mortgage rates. Joined by financial expert Kurt Rogers, they explore the differences between short-term and long-term loans and the challenges of a fluctuating bond market. Understand how inflation and consumer spending affect these financial decisions, and gain insights into what these mean for potential homeowners.
SPEAKER 03 :
This is Rush to Reason.
SPEAKER 06 :
You are going to shut your damn yapper and listen for a change because I got you pegged, sweetheart. You want to take the easy way out because you’re scared. And you’re scared because if you try and fail, there’s only you to blame. Let me break this down for you. Life is scary. Get used to it. There are no magical fixes.
SPEAKER 05 :
With your host, John Rush.
SPEAKER 12 :
My advice to you is to do what your parents did. Get a job, sir. You haven’t made everybody equal. You’ve made them the same, and there’s a big difference.
SPEAKER 14 :
Let me tell you why you’re here. You’re here because you know something. What you know you can’t explain, but you feel it. You’ve felt it your entire life, that there’s something wrong with the world. You don’t know what it is, but it’s there. It is this feeling that has brought you to me.
SPEAKER 06 :
Are you crazy? Am I? Or am I so sane that you just blew your mind?
SPEAKER 03 :
It’s Rush to Reason with your host, John Rush. Presented by High Five Plumbing, Heating, and Cooling, where every call ends with a high five.
SPEAKER 05 :
All right, we are back. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. Myself, Kurt Rogers, Affordable Interest Mortgage. I’ve been saying all week, Kurt’s with me this hour. He’s usually here for an hour a month. We missed last month because of Thanksgiving and some other things.
SPEAKER 04 :
It was late last month.
SPEAKER 05 :
Yeah, it was just a weird November.
SPEAKER 04 :
Best everything else.
SPEAKER 05 :
Yes, it was. Here today, going to talk a lot about not only mortgages, but the housing market and some of what the Fed did yesterday. And I guess we’ll start with that, Kurt. Why is it that the Feds can come out with a rate cut, but yet mortgages respond the way they did last night?
SPEAKER 13 :
A lot of people have asked me that question over the years, and you can explain it to them. What they have to understand about the Feds, the Feds’ job is to create money, the flow of money in the country. So they’re always dealing with short term loans, not long term loans. So they’re dealing with credit card loans and car loans and HELOC loans and things like that. The mortgage industry is designed basically off the 10-year bond. So if you want to see what’s happening in the bond market, you just go to the 10-year, look at it, add anywhere from two and a quarter to two and a half, and that’s your 30-year fixed rate.
SPEAKER 05 :
And really quick, of late, last few years, that spread’s been bigger, right?
SPEAKER 13 :
Yes, it used to be three and a half.
SPEAKER 05 :
Okay.
SPEAKER 13 :
But they’ve had to condense it down because you would have pushed the rate so high, people wouldn’t have been able to afford homes. And understanding that the biggest driver of the economy is homes. The new builds, after you have a house, the remodeling, all that stuff, you’ve got to have the people in the homes making mortgage payments to make it work. Now, I think the reason that the bond market’s not moving is threefold. The first one is inflation. Inflation has come down, and it’s 2.7, but it’s not what the Feds want. And the stock market’s a little concerned about that, so people aren’t buying 10-year bonds, which is what’s causing it.
SPEAKER 05 :
Which means because they’re not buying them, they raise the rate.
SPEAKER 13 :
They raise the rate. That’s right. When you buy them, they’re lower the rate.
SPEAKER 05 :
They’re incentivizing folks to buy them.
SPEAKER 13 :
That’s right, because they’re the most secure place you can put your money. is in mortgage-backed securities.
SPEAKER 05 :
Because the federal government is backing them.
SPEAKER 13 :
We are backing them. As everybody knows, they back FHA and VA loans. They also basically back Fannie and Freddie, which is 90%, 92% of all mortgages done out there.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay.
SPEAKER 13 :
The other part of that that we’re dealing with is consumer spending is up. You and I have talked about this all year, that credit card debt is $1.1 trillion.
SPEAKER 05 :
All-time high.
SPEAKER 13 :
Well, guess what? If you look at the spending that’s happening this year, that number is going to go up.
SPEAKER 01 :
I agree.
SPEAKER 13 :
And the usage of it, that is going to become a problem down the road that maybe the feds have thought about that. But you’re going to start seeing all those people that went out and got new credit cards. and now all of a sudden they’ve got the equity in their home and they want to refinance it come spring, they’re not going to have enough to be able to make that work because the rates aren’t going to move much on mortgages. Feds talked about two months ago, lowering rates another point next year in 2025. Well, I think you’re actually going to see, at best, two drops. So if you’re not seeing them move that number, it’s not going to happen. The other part that’s that people are worried about is they’re talking about jobs. The unemployment rate is 4.2. That’s low. Lowest we’ve ever been is 3.5. 4.2 is a good number. You could go to 4.5, but as long as you’re low on the Fed’s fund rate, the Feds have no reason to lower the rates because money is flowing through the system. What they’re not looking at is if you look at industrial production, where the things are built at, they’re only running at 76% capacity.
SPEAKER 05 :
The other thing really quick that they don’t factor into the number you just gave is the fact that the majority of those jobs that have been filled are by illegal workers. Well, that was my number three. You’re right. So the Fed’s not factoring that. They’re not factoring. It’s not Americans that have filled those jobs. It’s others that have.
SPEAKER 13 :
That’s exactly right. So because of that, they’re filling them jobs. They’re doing it at less money.
SPEAKER 05 :
It makes the number look good. Right. But economically, it’s not.
SPEAKER 13 :
So if you’re selling 100 widgets and you’re only able to produce 76 – And you can’t produce enough. So the lack of industrial is actually going to be deflationary, which is a good thing. The other issue is, like you talked about, immigration with the number of people here and with the new administration coming. The new administration is talking all these things they’re going to do. One of them is tariffs. I personally don’t believe that it will end up as to the way it’s presented. I don’t either. I just don’t. I don’t either.
SPEAKER 05 :
I’m with you.
SPEAKER 13 :
He’s a businessman. That’s not what he’s looking at.
SPEAKER 05 :
I agree.
SPEAKER 13 :
He’s trying to get control back to where it should be. And I think by the time it gets there. But that’s got the market scared.
SPEAKER 05 :
Of course. Well, and I’ve said this before. You haven’t been with me, but I’ve said this before on this program numerous times. It’s because the majority of Wall Street, in fact, the majority of the financial world, they’re globalist. They like things going on all around the world, and frankly, they at times don’t even care so much about what happens here as to what’s happening globally. So for those guys especially, they don’t even like the word tariff no matter how it’s used because they know at the end of the day, it’s going to affect the global end of things, which they don’t like.
SPEAKER 13 :
No, they don’t. They’re acting like they’re tough. They’re going to understand. And he’s not the kind of guy, you know, he’s a Reagan. He’s not the kind of guy that’s going to back down.
SPEAKER 05 :
But he’s going to put America first, which you would think the stock market would say, well, that’s a good thing. The problem is, again, most of the stock market’s full of folks that are more on the left than they are the right, and they’re looking at things way differently than what even you and I do.
SPEAKER 13 :
Agreed, at a different level with different zeros behind it. Because of the immigration problem and what the left is trying to do to slow it down, what’s going to happen there? These uncertainties is what’s causing the market to not understand. They don’t like uncertainty, so people are not going to invest. That’s part of why you’re not seeing mortgage rates go down.
SPEAKER 05 :
So before we go to break, your thoughts on – Because I really feel like, number one, the Fed yesterday screwed up. Jerome Powell should have just said, you know what, we’re going to let President Trump take over. We know there’s a lot of uncertainty around that. We’re going to just sort of sit back, watch. We’re still going to be – we’re thinking today we’re still going to be on target for where we were. We may have to make some adjustments next year, but let’s let him get into office. Let’s see how things work out first. Let’s see what the economy does, and we’ll come back to that. That’s what he should have done. That’s what he should have said.
SPEAKER 13 :
Yeah, he should have. He screwed up. He knew what he was doing.
SPEAKER 05 :
Oh, absolutely. I mean, this was not done by accident. Absolutely, he knew. And what’s ironic about that, Kurt, is what I just said and what you agree with is what, frankly, is going to happen. It’s exactly what the Fed will do. If they get into it and they decide that things aren’t rolling along like they should be and we need another rate cut, they could do three instead of two when it’s all said and done. The reality is they don’t have a crystal ball. They’re guessing. And what he said yesterday did nothing but just cripple the markets.
SPEAKER 13 :
Yeah, he put a big dent into it because it’s now got people. And the ripple effect of that, we’re not going to start to see us coming out of that, in my opinion, until the end of January, first part of February.
SPEAKER 05 :
I agree, because to your point, Trump has to take over. He’s got to get in. He’s got to get some of his people in place, which will take even 30 days or so once he’s inaugurated. So it’ll be mid-February before you start seeing people. some of the effects of even being there. And then the reality is the huge effects of some of that you won’t see, frankly, until probably early summer.
SPEAKER 13 :
I don’t disagree with that at all. I mean, looking at the numbers, I’m like, there’s some great things he wants to do, trying to get them done. It’s going to be great. Part of the other problem with rates is the people voted. When they voted, they voted for immigration was one. The second thing they voted for was us to get a budget. And what they’re trying to do and give themselves a pay raise and spend all this, he’s come out already and said, we’re going to fix that. We’re going to have a budget. Now, how can you run the country if you don’t have a budget?
SPEAKER 05 :
You can’t.
SPEAKER 13 :
Because you’re spending my money. That’s right.
SPEAKER 05 :
And you want more of it. You still can’t get it right. And frankly, and this is, again, a question for you. Answer this when we come back. Having that fiscal responsibility, getting a budget, getting government spending under control will actually help Wall Street and probably help in some of the things you and I are going to talk about. Okay. We’ll talk about that in a moment. Geno’s Auto Service is coming up next, folks. And if you need help with your vehicle, even as we head down this stretch into Christmas and the New Year’s, give them a call today. They’ve got some great specials running as well. Geno’sautoservice.com, and Geno’s is with a J.
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SPEAKER 05 :
All right, we are back. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. Kurt Rogers with us, by the way, Affordable Interest Mortgage. And if you hear something or you just want to talk to Kurt directly, whether it be any question, I mean literally any question, you may be thinking, hey, I just need to get my debt end of things, you know, my credit score up and so on. You know, what do I need to do in that area? Kurt’s always there to help you, 720-895-0500. But back to our topic, Kurt, and just talking about the feds and the rates and where things are at and so on. What are your thoughts?
SPEAKER 13 :
It’s surprising. The rates have been going up, and they were higher back in June and July when it’s a selling cycle. The bond market was up. All of a sudden, it went down. On December 6th, and I have a little chart in my office, rates dropped down to where they were under 6% on 30-year fixed mortgages. Conventional, FHA and VA were down almost to 5%. Within a day, they had moved up, and then they continued to where they are now, which is about a 0.5% higher.
SPEAKER 05 :
OK, so I asked you before the break, if Trump comes in and does some of the things he claims, we get on a budget, get the economy rolling along, cut some of the spending, the runaway spending literally that we’ve seen the last four years. Will that not have a positive effect on some of the things that we’re talking about?
SPEAKER 13 :
I believe it’s going to have a great effect because it’s going to help people. Many people think because the market is slow that homes are depreciating. They’re not. We could talk about that. But when the rates start to go down, there’s so many people that have so much credit card debt and installment debt, 50, 60, 70, 90. I’ve seen as high as 100,000. But they have the equity in their homes. But they’re not willing to pull that trigger to make it go away. Well, when rates come down, they’re going to pull that trigger because then they’re going to be saving $700,000 to $1,000 a month. When you start doing that and all that debt goes away, it takes the pressure off and the market’s going to get stronger. Right now, we’re running at about a 4% appreciation on homes for the year. That’s year after year. We’re up 7% from last year. So homes are still appreciating no matter what you think, but you’ve got to look at the homes that are. The homes that are going up are the ones that have had remodeled, that are updated. Right. If you have a house that needs a little TLC, it’s not going to bring the money.
SPEAKER 05 :
Oh, no. No.
SPEAKER 13 :
People don’t want to buy a house and they turn around and spend $40,000 to fix it.
SPEAKER 05 :
No. Nope, I can attest to that.
SPEAKER 13 :
Yeah.
SPEAKER 05 :
Yeah.
SPEAKER 13 :
And there’s a lot of them out there.
SPEAKER 05 :
Uh-huh, there is.
SPEAKER 13 :
So the reason there’s a 30 to 45-day supply of homes is because the majority of them are those homes.
SPEAKER 05 :
Agree. Okay, so going back to the bond market, if we as a country have a stronger economy and people have more confidence in us as a country, don’t those rates on bonds start to come down because they become more entertaining to buy? No.
SPEAKER 13 :
Yeah, because more people are going to be buying homes and putting their money. So, yes, they become stronger. So those rates will come down. That’s what I thought. People will be buying them. And it’s actually going to help. I think the rate to be healthy where it needs to be is between five to six.
SPEAKER 05 :
Agree. Five and a half is what I keep saying.
SPEAKER 13 :
Right into that range.
SPEAKER 05 :
Agree.
SPEAKER 13 :
And it’s good. You can afford things. There are so many people that want to buy a home. that need to buy a home, but they can’t. They got a new job, and instead of moving to where that job is, they have to drive farther. There’s just so many reasons. They’ve got more family members. They got a family member that needed to move in with them because they can’t afford to rent.
SPEAKER 05 :
Aging parents, whatever the case may be.
SPEAKER 13 :
Whatever it may be, there’s people who need to move, but they can’t because the rates are too high and home values are having to decline. They’re not going to. The solution to that is those rates coming down.
SPEAKER 05 :
The other thing that happens typically when things get better and if Trump comes in and does the things that we saw him do even the last time around and correct me if I’m wrong, but as the economy does better and the confidence gets better and the money supply starts to loosen up some. it becomes easier to do some of the things that we are talking about. In other words, the requirements around some of these loans and things along those lines, I don’t want to say they just make it easy and hand out money. They’re not going to do that again. They did that before 2008, and we already know the repercussions of that. I’m not saying we’re ever going to go back to that, but as the money supply loosens, so does the ability to find people that need the money, and that happens more often. Am I right in saying it that way?
SPEAKER 13 :
You are correct. When you have a need, when the consumer says, ìI have this need, and youíre telling me I donít qualify, but this bank says, ìI got no problem, you do qualify.î
SPEAKER 05 :
There’s no more competition that way is my point, right?
SPEAKER 13 :
That’s healthy for the economy.
SPEAKER 05 :
Right now, we don’t really have that. No, we don’t. Am I right?
SPEAKER 13 :
No, we don’t.
SPEAKER 05 :
Okay. That’s what I thought. Unless you fit into all of the specific criteria and you’re checking all the boxes, and even then there’s not as many players in the market in the first place, it becomes harder to make all that happen, right?
SPEAKER 13 :
Well, you have a lot of people that have had odd jobs over the last couple of years because of COVID and different things going on. Self-employed people. I have a very good client that you know that his income in 2022 was X. In 2023, it went up almost twice as much. And in 2024, it’s come back to 2022. Well, the bank doesn’t want to give him a loan. Right. Because they see this spike in 23.
SPEAKER 04 :
Right.
SPEAKER 13 :
Well, in the future, that will change because they’re going to say, well, if I take the worst case, he can still afford the loan. So, yeah, those things are going to start to happen.
SPEAKER 05 :
and the money, not the Fed side, but what the banking side does. In other words, where they feel like, oh, yeah, I can loan to Kurt, and I know I’m going to get paid back, and the reality is even if I don’t, I’ve got enough other customers that have come in that I’m still going to be good when it’s all said and done because I’ve got enough other good loans. I can take a bad one, you know, maybe a little bit more of a risk here or there and be just fine. Banks right now, Kurt, as you know, are not doing that.
SPEAKER 13 :
No, they’re not.
SPEAKER 05 :
Unless you are top notch, you’re not doing anything.
SPEAKER 13 :
They’ve tightened them down a little bit. You have to be real clean. And they go back a ways. And there’s things they ask for. You’re like, where did you come up with that one?
SPEAKER 05 :
But that’s the environment we’re in right now.
SPEAKER 13 :
That’s the market because they don’t know which way it’s going to go.
SPEAKER 05 :
That’s where if Trump does come in, and I believe he will, and he gets the economy booming again, which, again, I believe he will. I think his policies he’s already done at one time. It can happen again. I see some of the things even with Doge and government spending and so on. If we get a lot of those things tightened up and people start to really think, oh, man, okay, these guys mean business. We’re going to have this country rocking and rolling. That confidence level alone, Kurt, will drive some of the things you and I are talking about.
SPEAKER 13 :
It will. I think he’s focused on getting prices down to where the average American can afford to go to the grocery store. They talk gas prices are down. Okay, well, that’s great. The big one that’s up is grocery stores.
SPEAKER 05 :
Yeah, and that’s another one, too, where if you see energy prices across the board start to come down, those will as well. And those are some of the things that Trump wants to do right off the bat. Before we go to break, if rates don’t drop, let’s say they stay at the rate they’re at right now, there’s some out there that are talking that, well, that’s going to affect home values and they’re going to decline. I, by the way, am not one of those. No. But why aren’t they going to decline?
SPEAKER 13 :
Well, to me, it’s supply and demand. Right now, if you look at the numbers, there’s 1 million homes available for sale in the United States. The demand, there’s people wanting to buy, is 1.9 million.
SPEAKER 05 :
And I read this morning, and I was going to send you this and I forgot to, so I apologize. I read this morning, and you can probably verify this. I read this morning that in the last decade, we have built the least amount of homes since World War I. Correct.
SPEAKER 13 :
Correct.
SPEAKER 05 :
In other words, we haven’t upped the supply in the last decade.
SPEAKER 13 :
No, we can’t catch up with the demand.
SPEAKER 05 :
So given that there’s not enough supply, there’s not going to be enough supply, home values aren’t dropping.
SPEAKER 13 :
No, and the 1.9 that’s needed… The builders have decided to back off. They’ve cut their what they call starts by 27 percent. And the reason is they don’t know. Right. So this supply demand problem. So if even if the rates don’t come down, home values are not going to come down because there’s there’s such a big demand for it. And when they do come down, when the rates do come down, the prices aren’t going to get cheaper.
SPEAKER 05 :
Agreed. I read, again, for those of you listening, I always read these naysayers. And I’ve seen them on social media. I’ve been watching these guys for years, by the way. But especially the last six months, there was a ton of naysayers out there. Oh, yeah, don’t own homes here. They’re going to drop. In fact, if I were you, I’d get out of it. I’d rent. Things are going to drop across the country. And I saw all sorts of individuals saying that, especially prior to Trump winning. I haven’t listened to these guys since to see what they’re saying now. But A lot of these guys were huge naysayers, and by now, literally by now, the end of 2024, we were supposed to have seen all sorts of cities across the country have huge drops, repossessions through the roof, on and on we go. And I’m happy to tell you that none of them have been correct.
SPEAKER 13 :
Most people will read that headline and kind of go with it. They’ll say, well, the Fed’s lowered the rate, but my rates aren’t down. I saw one where they’re saying 30-year fixed rates are going down. Somebody’s advertising 5.5%. It’s like… Those things are real. You’ve got to read all the numbers to go with them. And they may be talking about a two-year or a three-year arm on an FHA. Who knows? So you see a lot of that, and there’s ways to investigate. Part of the understanding about homes depreciating is you can go online and pull up how many foreclosures in the United States. That number is right around 6% to 6.5%. That’s a very healthy number. Because it’s just like anything else. People, for whatever reason, can’t afford their home.
SPEAKER 04 :
Stuff happens.
SPEAKER 13 :
But it’s not a high number.
SPEAKER 04 :
Right.
SPEAKER 13 :
Like unemployment, a 4.2. That’s an okay number. That’s average. That fits. When they start to go up is when that becomes a problem and home values come down.
SPEAKER 05 :
And the reality, folks, and again, this is, you know, we’re talking the end of December 2024. Believe me, just sheer numbers and volume and capability. There aren’t enough tradesmen even out there right now across the country to catch up, even if there were enough lands and lots and they had already put in the curb and the gutter and the asphalt and the power and the sewer and everything else. There is not enough tradesmen. to build the amount of homes right now that we need, even if what I just said, we’re already ready to go, Kurt. In other words, there just right now physically isn’t the ability to have an oversupply problem. No, you can’t build them. It’s not going to happen, Kurt. It’s not there.
SPEAKER 13 :
That’s part of it because of the expense for the builders, what they got to pay. They’ve had to tighten up their belt. That’s why they’ve backed off with starts. They’re not going to have as many homes. They’re going to wait.
SPEAKER 05 :
And by the way, that helps everybody else that owns a home.
SPEAKER 13 :
It helps your value.
SPEAKER 05 :
So be happy with that.
SPEAKER 13 :
It’s a double-edged sword. The value is going up. You might have to pay a little bit more, and there’s ways to do that.
SPEAKER 05 :
All right. We’ll be back. Again, questions for Kurt, send me a text message, 307-282-22. Otherwise, high-five plumbing and electric is next. Speaking of the trades, by the way, they’re there to help you with whatever your plumbing and electric needs are. Again, call them today, 877-WE-HIGH-5.
SPEAKER 03 :
The holidays are the busiest season for plumbers, and High Five Plumbing, Electrical, Heating, and Cooling wants you to be ready now. There are several things you can do to prevent freezing, busted pipes, and other plumbing issues just as guests arrive. If you have plumbing inside cabinets, leave the doors open to warm them. especially if they are on an exterior wall. Hi-5 can better insulate pipes if this is a constant issue. And if you’re going away for a vacation, don’t forget to turn the water off to prevent those really bad emergency pipe breaks. When the cold dips lower than normal, leaving your faucets dripping will keep water flowing and prevent it from freezing. Plumbing inside your home is constantly degrading. So even if you haven’t had an issue in previous years, Hi-5 can help you make sure it’s still working. Have them out for a pre-holiday inspection and receive a waived inspection fee just for being a KLZ listener. Schedule your inspection today at klzradio.com slash plumbing.
SPEAKER 05 :
All right, group insurance analyst, and they are there to help you. Don’t forget, they can help you with the Medicare sides of things as well, e-gia.com.
SPEAKER 15 :
Finding the right home and auto insurance can be confusing, and picking the wrong plan can cost you thousands of dollars more out of your pocket. You need an expert in home and auto insurance to help you find the best coverage that fits your needs and at the very best premium. Call Paul DeNigro at GIA Insurance, and his team of home and auto insurance specialists will help you find the right plan for your needs. As independent brokers, GIA Insurance can help you shop the market so that you get the right coverage at the right price. GIA never charges fees and your premiums will never be any higher than going directly to the insurance companies or buying online. Receive the local hands-on service that you don’t get with a call center or online. Whether it is your home, auto, classic car, or liability insurance, GIA has got you covered. Call 303-423-0162, extension 100, or go online to e-gia.com. Get more without paying more.
SPEAKER 05 :
All right, furnace repairs, we’ve got you covered. Cub Creek Heating and Air Conditioning, don’t forget $500 or more on repairs or replacement. They can finance that for you. Give them a call today. Find them at klzradio.com.
SPEAKER 07 :
Cub Creek is ready to help make sure your family is toasty warm with a holiday special just for KLZ listeners. For a limited time, Cub Creek is offering $50 off any repair call to show their appreciation. The first time you kick your heater on for the season is the most likely time that it will fail. So if you are just turning it on, or it’s been a year or more since it was serviced, now is the right time to call the experts at Cub Creek to come check and clean your furnace. Cub Creek cleans the furnace, checks the wires and connections, and tracks down root causes for issues. This is their busiest time of the year for calls. Cub Creek has openings that are booking fast, so give them a call before your holidays take off and make sure you’re not left in the cold. Find Cub Creek on the klzradio.com advertisers page to book your service now.
SPEAKER 05 :
All right, and those of you that might need some legal help, we have the answer. Flesh Law, Kevin Flesh, he’s my attorney. He’d love to help you as well. 303-806-8886.
SPEAKER 07 :
Here’s why you need personal injury attorney Kevin Flesch on your side. He understands the way the jury thinks. In the context of a personal injury case, you’ve been hurt by someone else’s negligence. The idea is that you’re going to try to recover so that you can get back to where you were just prior to that incident occurring. What that really means from a jurist’s perspective is that you’re going to be asking them to award you money. So when we talk about fairness, we’re talking about six people that you don’t know. Those six people view the evidence and make a unanimous decision that will decide what the fair value is. When you’re the one who’s hurt, you have a good idea of what you think it’s worth. The question is, can you persuade those other individuals whom you don’t know and were witnesses to believe that’s what the case is worth? Kevin Flesch understands the way the jury thinks. Call now for a free consultation, 303-806-8886.
SPEAKER 03 :
Now, back to Rush to Reason, presented by Hi-5 Plumbing, Heating, and Cooling, where every call ends with a high five.
SPEAKER 05 :
All right, Kurt Rogers again, Affordable Interest Mortgage with us during this hour. 720-895-0500 is his phone number. And, Kurt, one thing, I don’t know if we’ve ever gone over this. We might as well do it here while we’re kind of in our last show of the year. We’ll have you back next year, of course. But when a client comes in and you start that process of helping them figure out what they’re going to do on a mortgage, whether they’re a first-time buyer or they’re a seasoned buyer and they’re looking to do something again, how does that process work for you?
SPEAKER 13 :
First thing I try to do is find out what they’re doing. Are you buying or are you refinancing? Are you looking at pulling cash out? What’s your goal? And in talking with customers, they seem to think sometimes that I get paid depending on the loan I put you into. My compensation, and this is federal law, as with every broker, my compensation is set with every lender, whether the loan is at 6%, At 4%, 9%? It doesn’t matter, does it? I don’t get paid any difference. My goal is to find you the best so I can get repeats and referrals.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay.
SPEAKER 13 :
So I want to sit down and get some information as to how long you’re going to be in the home. Are you a young couple? Is this your last home, your first home?
SPEAKER 05 :
Is this something you’re going to be in for three to five years, or is it something you’re going to spend the next 25 years in?
SPEAKER 13 :
Correct. Are you more concerned about rate or are you more concerned about payment? Because there’s a difference between those two. Just because you have a lower rate doesn’t mean you have a lower payment. So those are some of the things. I’m going to give you options. I may show you that by going with FHA, you’re going to save more money than going with a conventional. But you got mortgage insurance, but you’re still paying less money per month. Those are things that I need to find out what you’re thinking, where you want to be, what fits in your budget. Then I show you the numbers. I have 38 lenders. I have plenty of lenders, a lenders that I can shop to get you good rates. I just need information.
SPEAKER 05 :
What do you feel is one of the biggest misconceptions or things that people are just steered wrong by whomever, family, ads, whatever the case may be? What do you feel is one of the biggest things folks just don’t understand when they first contact you?
SPEAKER 13 :
Don’t pay mortgage insurance. That’s one of the big ones. Okay. Have to put 20% down. Don’t pay mortgage insurance. Get the lowest rate. The rate’s more important than anything else. See, you know me pretty well. I’ve done this 24 years. I’m more concerned about how much money am I paying and how long do I got to pay?
SPEAKER 05 :
Well, it’s like buying a car. I mean, people have a misconception there as well. They’re working off of a monthly payment, and the dealer will try to do everything possible to get them into that payment, no matter what the length is or the price of the car or the add-ons or whatever. What they really should be asking is, what’s my bottom dollar price on the car?
SPEAKER 13 :
Yeah. At the end of the month, do I have money left over or does your way put me in trouble? Right. It’s about the dollars. And again, the interest rate is important, but there’s other ways to beat the interest rate to save yourself more money and keep more of your money.
SPEAKER 05 :
Okay. So that you feel is one of the largest.
SPEAKER 13 :
That’s one of the largest one.
SPEAKER 05 :
Is there misconceptions about how you’re paid, for example?
SPEAKER 13 :
Yes. Most people think I get paid on the rate. They’ve thought that, and it used to be that way. Before 2014, it used to. The mortgage crisis that came out that they had in 2008, and they changed the laws in 2014. They did this to brokers. You’re flat. You cannot charge a customer more or less depending on the customer by rate. So we have to set our commission with every lender that we deal with. We have to set that, and it cannot be different from one to the other.
SPEAKER 05 :
Okay. I have another one I’m going to throw at you. Well, Kurt, I can’t use you because my realtor said that I really need to use who she’s telling me to use because it’ll make closing a whole lot better. So I want to use you, and John says to use you, but I can’t because my realtor says I need to use this person.
SPEAKER 13 :
Really? Your realtor’s going to tell you what you’ve got to pay to own a home?
SPEAKER 05 :
I’ve seen some of them. Oh, so have I. I’ve seen that. I’ve heard it.
SPEAKER 13 :
Yep. And the realtor’s doing it because it’s convenient. It’s a well-worn path.
SPEAKER 05 :
Okay.
SPEAKER 13 :
Sometimes a well-worn path costs you more money. They’re more concerned about, and please don’t take this wrong. I’m not against realtors. They have a job to do, and they need to close as fast as possible. But they’ll put closing the loan fast as possible more important than what you’re paying for at home.
SPEAKER 05 :
In other words, they’re putting that above your best interest.
SPEAKER 13 :
That’s correct. They’re more focused on the dollar that they’re going to make and when they’re going to get that dollar than what’s best for you.
SPEAKER 05 :
And frankly, folks, and you guys all know my feelings on this, a lot of that is because they have a different structure of pay than what Curt has.
SPEAKER 13 :
That’s changing. We’ve talked about that for a while, but yeah, that’s changing. We’re starting to see that. I have a couple of realtors when I talk to them now, I say, what’s the biggest question you get? They say, what’s my compensation going to be? Before they even start from a buyer’s agent, I have to discuss my compensation and get it set before we do anything. That’s new for them.
SPEAKER 05 :
Yeah, they’ve never had to do that before.
SPEAKER 13 :
No, they didn’t.
SPEAKER 05 :
Does it cost anything? So I’m going to go house shopping, whether I’m a first-time buyer or I’m seasoned. Does it cost me anything to figure out on the front side where I need to be, whether it’s a refi or I’m buying another house? In other words, that pre-approval side of things, is there a cost to that?
SPEAKER 13 :
There’s a cost if you don’t do it. No, there’s not a cost to do it. A pre-qual or a pre-approval. We’ll get you started whether you want to do a refinance or a purchase. It’s mainly used on a purchase. But a real pre-approval can save you thousands. And it can save you thousands because it puts you as the buyer back into control. And because of that, you get to say, here’s what I will do on that house that you’re trying to buy. And I can close this fast so the realtors are happy. But you’ve done all the work. I’ve had three customers this week that have called me that we’ve done the pre-approval. Now they found a home.
SPEAKER 05 :
Nice.
SPEAKER 13 :
So their bids are getting accepted for that exact reason. We were ahead of the game.
SPEAKER 05 :
Awesome. Okay. going along with this. Well, Kurt, you know, I was going to call you, but I went online and, you know, Quicken had this thing where if I just filled out a few things, I could get maybe an idea of what my rate would be and so on. And I did all of that, and I was still going to call you, which I am right now. But man, Kurt, since I did that, I’ve had like 20 or 30 phone calls on people wanting to, you know, do their mortgage for me. Why is that?
SPEAKER 13 :
Okay. What most people don’t know, and mortgage brokers have tried to get the government to change the law, and it was sent up, but it got kicked back. The credit bureau companies will sell your information to anybody for $5. So if I’m a mortgage broker company, I can buy that lead. The minute you run a credit bureau, I don’t get your score. I get the fact that you’re looking for a mortgage.
SPEAKER 05 :
So you went on Quicken Loans, you filled all this stuff out, and that’s why that starts to happen. I got it.
SPEAKER 13 :
So I know your address. I know your phone number. I don’t know your social, but I have enough information I get in touch with you. So I start mailing you. I start calling you. You’re going to get 30, 40 phone calls, and you’re going to get stories about what can be done. There is a way to prevent that. First of all, write your congressman and tell him to change the law.
SPEAKER 05 :
Good idea. That’s rule number one or action number one.
SPEAKER 13 :
That’s action number one. Number two, every time you contact me if we’re starting a loan, the first thing I’m going to do is I’m going to opt out. You can opt out yourself, and it protects you for five years from that happening. All you do is go to optoutprescreen.com. Fill it in, put in your name, your address, your social, your date of birth, and there’ll be a code. Put it in, and they will take you to where the credit bureau company cannot sell that information to anybody. So you won’t get those 30, 40 calls. You do that before you start the process. You come to me, that’s the very first thing I tell you I’m going to do it. I’m going to get you out of the loop. Because people get real upset with those calls because they don’t come in between 8 and 5.
SPEAKER 05 :
Oh, no. They’re at 10 o’clock at night.
SPEAKER 13 :
That’s right. Texting you. That’s right. And they never let up.
SPEAKER 05 :
That’s right. Okay. So for those of you listening, please, that’s the first thing not to do. Because a lot of folks will say, well, I just want to know where I’m going to qualify and what kind of rate I’m going to be at. No, no. Please. Please. Just call Kurt. Ask him. He’s going to ask you, as we mentioned a moment ago, a few questions and get the ball rolling and so on. But trust me, there’s a lot of things he can do on the front side. And a lot of it is just because he’s done it so long, he can even ask you, what’s your credit score? How much debt do you have? What’s your income ratio? Blah, blah, blah. And you can darn near tell him probably within a few points. A few hundreds of points, I should say, as to where they’re going to be. Am I right?
SPEAKER 13 :
It’s funny you say that. I had a customer call me last night at 5 o’clock, and she’s thinking of buying a house. I said, I’m going to send you a little information, fill it out. I’m going to do what we call is a softball. It never shows on your credit bureau. Nobody will ever see it. They don’t sell it. But it gives me the information, and I called her back this afternoon. I said, well, you could do this, this, this, and this. Now what do you want to do? Because it gives me the information that I need, and I understand what she, she wants to buy a house, she’s getting married, thinking about this. I’ve given her the answers. Now they can go forward.
SPEAKER 05 :
Okay. So again, folks, those of you that are listening, please. I have known people, close family, friends, and so on, where I’ll tell them right off the bat, call Kurt, and for whatever reason, late at night, because this is the other thing that happens for a lot of you. It happens to me because I talk a lot on the radio, and I talk about a lot of subjects. In turn… My social media feeds will get full of things that I am talking about because everyone, computer, phone, is listening to what I’m talking about. We’ve done shows on this, by the way. And where I’m going with this is you will start talking amongst yourselves about different things, mortgages and rates and moving and so on. And pretty soon, they’re going to start pinging you. hey, check here for your best rate, and oh, we can give you this best rate, or we can do this, or we can do that. They’re going to start pinging you on those things even before you call Kurt because you’re talking about it already.
SPEAKER 13 :
That’s what they pay Google to do.
SPEAKER 05 :
Exactly. So where I’m going with that is don’t be tempted and don’t fall into the trap of clicking on or going to some of these places and doing the things that we just mentioned. Otherwise, you get into that trap we just talked about a moment ago where there’s 30, 40 people hounding you from that point on. Don’t fall into that.
SPEAKER 13 :
At this time of year, you just don’t have the time and the energy to handle that.
SPEAKER 05 :
No one wants that. I don’t want that ever. This is me, folks, and I know a lot of you – I know I’m weird, and I’ll admit it, but I want to be in control of these things. I don’t need the 40 offers that are out there that are going to come in the form of a phone call because the reality is I know, first of all, that – Well, first of all, I’m self-employed and I know Kurt can do things for me that no one else will be able to do anyways. But on top of that, I also know that because of what Kurt said earlier and I’ve had this experience, he’s looking out for my best interest and he’s going to do whatever he can do to make things work for me personally. And I don’t need 40 people giving me suggestions on what to do.
SPEAKER 13 :
If I needed 40 people, I can find 40 people I can call. I don’t need you to call me. I call you if I want 40. If I want three, which is fine, call three brokers. Get them to compare. That’s fine. But you don’t want 40 people calling you.
SPEAKER 05 :
So as we kind of end things here, The self-employed thing, we haven’t talked about this for a few times since you’ve been here, and it does come up, and I’m one of those, and I have a lot of folks listening to me because light begets light. There’s a lot of self-employed folks out there that are listening as we speak, and any of them that have been through this know that it’s not normal. All of you that have W-2 income, it’s a piece of cake for all of you, and I mean that sincerely. Simple thinking. It’s very easy. When you’re self-employed, it’s not. So, Kurt, talk to those self-employed individuals about how this works for them.
SPEAKER 13 :
If you’re self-employed and you’ve been self-employed for two years, what the letter’s going to look at is they’re going to look at your Schedule C or your Schedule E, K-1s, depending on what they are, and how much money you’re making. If you go from one year making $150,000 net, now we’re not talking about what your gross sales are.
SPEAKER 05 :
We’re talking about your net income at the bottom. Okay, so I’m going to stop Kurt for one moment and give you all a piece of advice that will help you with Kurt. I understand that there’s this, I call it the dance, to where there’s depreciation and other things that you can take as a business legitimate. Nothing is below the board. It’s all legal, legit, IRS rules and so on. And your accountants are doing the best they can to help you out in not paying as much in taxes, which I get. And I fully understand that. And unfortunately, they are not looking out for your best interest when it comes to buying things like a house. So where I’m going with this is they may say, you know what, we can write everything off to the point where, you know what, you’re not going to have much income. We’ll have not much owed in taxes, if any. In fact, you may get a little bit back depending upon the situation, if you have somebody else in the home working, et cetera, et cetera. So let’s do this. And at the end of the day, you’ll be in great shape tax-wise. And you will be. Yes. The problem is you can’t buy a house. You shot yourself in the head. So be careful with what that bottom line number looks like. And if you need help with that, I’m always here to help you with that side of it, or so is Kurt, because there is a dance there to where you need to have enough income shown on your tax returns and so on for your business to be able to have Kurt get you qualified.
SPEAKER 13 :
That was my next question. When you’re doing those forms, the depreciation, depreciation can kick back in as income. Many people don’t know that. So if you want to write it, you’re going to get it to come back. What it does is it takes away taxes now, but you end up paying them later. But it still qualifies you for a loan. I’ve seen people make five, six, $700,000 in sales But when they’re done, they’re showing 20 grand because they’re writing off all this stuff. Well, the bank’s going to look at what you pay taxes on. I’m not saying I agree. I’m just telling you how they work.
SPEAKER 05 :
It is what it is.
SPEAKER 13 :
It is what it is. You can agree, disagree. This just is the facts. So that’s one issue. The second issue is let’s say you have been in business for three years. And one year you had a net gross profit of $100,000. The next year you had a gross profit of $300,000. And then the third year you had a gross profit of $100,000. The bank’s going to look at the fact in the last two years, not three. They’re going to see 300 and 100 declining income won’t do the loan.
SPEAKER 05 :
I know. They won’t.
SPEAKER 13 :
They won’t do the loan. If it drops more than 20%, they’re saying, we think you’re going out of business.
SPEAKER 05 :
These are things that. You guys all know I coach businesses and do things along those lines. And by the way, these are conversations that I as a business coach have with clients because if they’re thinking about doing any of these things even a year or two down the road, it’s very important how they handle tax things now because that could have a huge impact down the road for them.
SPEAKER 13 :
Yeah, and you may make a whole lot of money and want to buy a million-dollar home, but you’re setting up to the most home you can buy is $300,000. And that’s not going to be acceptable.
SPEAKER 05 :
Correct.
SPEAKER 13 :
So understand those rules going in. If you have a question, you just give me a call. I can look at the forms and say, okay, here’s what I think the bank’s going to do. I don’t have a problem doing that for you to help you get set up for down the road.
SPEAKER 05 :
And as I said earlier, too, those of you that are self-employed, as the economy comes back, things get much, much better. The money supply starts to loosen up. Trust me, even you that are self-employed, this part of it gets easier for you as well. So that’s something else to be looking at when you’re on that end of things.
SPEAKER 13 :
Remember one thing. If you’re self-employed, let’s say for five years, and all of a sudden you decide to go to W-2, The W-2 income, as long as it’s tied to this one, I don’t need a two-year history. But if you’re W-2 for five years and you go to self-employed, I need two years of self-employment.
SPEAKER 05 :
You’re not going to do it otherwise. No. That’s how it works.
SPEAKER 13 :
I don’t care if it’s the same line of work.
SPEAKER 05 :
That’s how it works. Don’t care. Nope.
SPEAKER 13 :
You’ve got to have two years self-employed.
SPEAKER 05 :
That’s right. Otherwise, don’t even go for it. Don’t go for it. It’s not worth messing with. Kurt, as always, I appreciate it. You need to give any disclaimers or anything?
SPEAKER 13 :
NMLS 217147, regulated by Dora, equal credit lender. Thanks for 2024.
SPEAKER 05 :
Thank you as well. Merry Christmas to you, and appreciate you very much. Thanks for all your support, Kurt. See you in January. We get to do it again. We’ll do it again. All right. Dr. Scott’s coming up next, folks. If you’re looking for a great doctor, as we talked to Dr. Kelly, by the way, in the first hour, that is literally Dr. Scott in a nutshell. If you want that kind of a doctor to help you when it comes to your medical care, give him a call today, 303-663-6990.
SPEAKER 09 :
Are you tired of crisis care and instead want true health care? Do you want to improve your overall fitness and beauty? Do you have a chronic medical condition that no one has taken the time to understand? Are you trying to meet a health or weight goal? Or maybe you’re just looking for a great doctor who thinks the way you do. Dr. Scott is a board certified internal medicine specialist, bringing decades of experience and expertise to the table. Dr. Scott is a true advocate of the latest advancements in health care. That’s why he uses umbilical derived stem cells, which have been clinically proven to be the most potent stem cells available. Worried about being lost in the crowd of impersonal health care? Fear not. Dr. Scott is a big picture doctor, not beholden to big pharma or big insurance like some other providers. He takes the time to understand your unique needs and will customize your health care to fit you, your body, and your lifestyle. Reach your full potential and achieve your goals. Call Dr. Scott today at 303-663-6990 or visit him online at castlerockregenerativehealth.com or find him at rushtoreason.com. Dr. Scott Faulkner and Castle Rock Regenerative Health Care is your path to a healthier tomorrow.
SPEAKER 05 :
All right, we have got a great book that helps young people learn how to read. It’s one of those family items, by the way, that you will keep using over and over and over again. And some of you that say, well, I don’t really have kids, but I’ve got neighbor kids. Okay, there you go. Get one for them as well. Use promo code KLZ to get 10% off. Just go to jimmyandandrew.com.
SPEAKER 10 :
American Stonehenge by Mike Goldstein is more than just a children’s book. It’s a way to connect with the children in your life and encourage them to read to you and for themselves. When Mike Goldstein started writing American Stonehenge, he went after a specific problem. Children today don’t think for themselves, and test scores nationwide show that. American Stonehenge is gorgeously put together, so it’ll draw their attention. It’s filled with action, the prose flows as smooth as sand through an hourglass, and it’s historically accurate from the stories and the illustrations. But it’s also a portal to quality time with children, grandchildren, nieces and nephews. It’s a way to connect with them while tacitly teaching them the importance of critical thought and giving them a break from scrolling in their free time. Find American Stonehenge on klzradio.com and bring your family together this holiday season.
SPEAKER 05 :
All right, and a lot of what we just got done talking to Kurt Rogers about involves finances and planning of and so on. And we’ve got somebody that will help you with your retirement planning, which does affect what we’re talking about even with Kurt on a routine basis. Talk to Al Smith today, Golden Eagle Financial, 303-744-1128.
SPEAKER 11 :
The holidays are full of issues that can negatively affect your nest egg and Al Smith of Golden Eagle Financial will help you stay secure. This time of year, you have demands all around you. Even if you’re retired, there’s shopping to do, dinner parties or office functions. You just need a few minutes to make sure your required minimum distributions are taken. Let Al Smith take the pressure off of you this holiday season. You can meet with him for free and he’ll work with you on a strategy to identify the best way he can help you. And when you hire him to manage your retirement, you won’t be fending those demands off this year because he’s got you covered. Al communicates with you and minimizes the time you would spend strategizing because you can lean on his decades of experience helping folks just like you retire with confidence. Find Al Smith and Golden Eagle Financial on the klzradio.com advertisers page and get started with your free meeting. Investment advisory services offered through Brookstone Capital Management, LLC, registered investment advisor, BCM, and Golden Eagle Financial Limited are independent of each other. Insurance products and services are not offered through BCM, but are offered and sold through individually licensed and appointed agents.
SPEAKER 12 :
As independent brokers, GIA Insurance can help you shop the market so that you get the right coverage at the right price. Whether it is your home, auto, classic car, or liability insurance, GIA has got you covered. Call 303-423-0162, extension 100, or go online to e-gia.com.
SPEAKER 15 :
It’s time to leave your safe space. This is Rush to Reason on KLZ 560.
SPEAKER 05 :
All right, and closing with Kurt Rogers again, 720-895-0500. And especially those of you that are self-employed, I’ll just tell you straight up, I have never had anybody yet on his side of the fence, me personally, that works as hard to make things happen for you as a self-employed individual as Kurt does. So I’ll just put that last little plug in for Kurt. All right, tomorrow. It’s Friday, Movie Rental Hour. Sorry, movies that we’re reviewing tomorrow, Andy, will be Mufasa and Sonic 3. And then, of course, Movie Rental Hour will be favorite Christmas movies. Have a great night. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560.
