Join professional money manager Bill Gundersen and Chartered Financial Analyst Barry Kett as they delve into the latest trends impacting the stock market. From an in-depth look at momentum stocks to the complex relationships influencing international trade, this episode offers listeners a comprehensive analysis backed by data and experience. Discover the factors behind recent market sell-offs and get insights on promising investment strategies. In this episode, the focus isn’t only on individual stocks but also on broader sectors affecting global economies. The hosts tackle hot topics like insurance company backlash, the impact of China’s market dynamics, and the evolving
00:35:46 Venture Capital Premiums and Rigetti Computing
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He’s been seen on CNBC, the Fox News Channel, and the Fox Business Channel. His articles can be found on MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TheStreet.com, and many other places. He’s the author of the weekly Best Stocks Now newsletter and the inventor of the Best Stocks Now app. He’s president of Gundersen Capital Management. Here is professional money manager Bill Gundersen.
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And welcome to the Tuesday. It is the two for Tuesday, December the 10th edition of the Best Stocks Now show with professional money manager Bill Gunnarsson. And I’m here with Chartered Financial Analyst Barry Kett. We’ve got a pretty good bounce going on in the NASDAQ today. It had a big sell-off yesterday, especially the momentum stocks. They were down about 2% yesterday. Today, the NASDAQ is up 129, closing in on 20,000. It’s at 19,865 right now. But the Dow is down 64 points to 44,338 points. And the S&P 500 is up 8 points to 6,061. The small caps are down about 40 basis points here so far this morning. A little bump higher today in interest rates. They were up 4 basis points this morning. And we’re back to 4.22%. We got down to 4.18% yesterday. Crude oil is at 68.31%. It has a demand issue right now. Not a lot of demand coming from China. Gold’s got a little bit of life again. It’s up 1.1%. The dollar’s starting to kind of top out right now. So you might see a rally in gold. maybe we’ll look for a trade there and bitcoin right now is down twenty one seventy one to ninety seven thousand seven eighty four so welcome to today’s best stocks now show with professional money manager bill ganderson president of ganderson capital management a nationwide fee based only firm and i’m here with barry kite our chartered financial analyst and we did have a sell off yesterday In the tech, in the high tech, in the AI world, The nuclear stocks, which are all kind of bunched together right now. We’ll call them the momentum stocks. And there is an ETF that tracks the momentum stocks. I don’t know what you’ve got to do to qualify to become a momentum stock. I’m sure it has something to do with relative strength. But the MTUM ETF was down 2.1% yesterday. Sometimes, like I say most times, just looking at the surface of the market, just looking at the indexes, doesn’t really tell the true story because as you looked underneath the indexes yesterday, you saw all the usual suspects. In other words, if you took the top 20 performers in the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ so far this year, they were the ones that got clipped yesterday. It could have had something to do with China, you know, China going after NVIDIA for being a monopoly. I looked at the market share for NVIDIA. About 12% of NVIDIA sales come from China. So I really don’t see that as a big thing, but it might have had something to do. And valuations also. I’m starting to see the words… Oh, fluff, extended, expensive coming up. I put a chart in the newsletter on Saturday of both the S&P and the NASDAQ. In fact, four charts for each index showing the historical price to cash flow ratios, price to book value, price to sales, and price to earnings ratios. And you’ll see they’re closing in on 10-year highs right now. They’re not quite there yet, but they’re up there in the stratosphere right now. But we are getting a bounce, a pretty good bounce in the NASDAQ today here. so far. Well, that McDonald’s in Pennsylvania, Barry, getting a lot of lousy reviews today. Apparently, there’s a lot of sympathetic folks that are not fans of the the health insurers, especially United Healthcare, and because that kid Mangione, 26 years old, was found in a McDonald’s in Altoona, Pennsylvania, which isn’t too far from where we’re heard in Pittsburgh on the… The Salem station there, they got a lot of bad reviews yesterday. Food made me sick, blah, blah, blah. And then they usually throw in something about the insurance companies to get their point across. So kind of a weird dynamic taking place right now. There’s a lot of folks, obviously, that think what he did was justified, which is kind of crazy. But, you know, there is definitely a backlash against the health insurers out there. All right, so let’s take a look here at what’s going on in the markets today. We’ve got some earnings coming in from Oracle and a few others. As I said, the AI and nuclear stocks had a big profit-taking day yesterday. And, again, a lot of that comes from China. Let’s see. Dow pulls back from record highs. NVIDIA loses ground. The momentum is definitely starting to cool off. Okay, when did the momentum start? When did the breakout start in the markets? Well, I mean, the day after Trump was elected, right?
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That’s the newest leg, yeah.
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It took off. I got up to 1,200 B-plus or better stocks. That’s out of 4,800 in my database. So roughly one-fourth of the stocks in my database were B-plus or better. And a lot of that was coming from the momentum side of the equation. Indicative of some breadth to the market. Today it’s down to 700. So we’ve lost about 500 stocks. I still have over 400 A-plus momentum stocks. That’s coming down from about 700. We’re still at an elevated number. The market is still overheated. But that momentum is still there, although a lot of the air in the tires came out of the momentum sector yesterday. Like I say, that momentum ETF, which I use as a bellwether for that sector, was down 2% yesterday. Let’s see. Here’s some comments here on McDonald’s. This location has rats in the kitchen that will make you sick, and your insurance isn’t going to cover it, one user posted. Oh, my. This is very weird. The hostel where Mangione stayed also saw similar negative reviews.
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I mean, you know, at a certain point, you’ve got to kind of disconnect the person, right, from the industry or from the business, right? I mean, in this sense, I mean, that is what that business is about is delaying. You know, we all know and have been on the wrong side of this equation is, you know, they want to delay as long as they can because they make money. interest off of those dollars uh and also people will just give up yes that’s what they want it’s really the industry i mean you know you pin it on this you know one particular person in terms of uh you know being murdered is is you know is is outlandish But the industry certainly likely needs to look at itself and do something.
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Don’t forget that there’s a large industry on the other side of attorneys, every other billboard. Now, mostly that applies to auto insurance, but it also applies to health insurance. I have friends that are in the lawyer industry. And they go after… Well, yeah, if somebody in the hospital comes out worse than when they went in, there is an army now of attorneys and legal. So, I mean, the whole thing has gotten… pretty sticky these days with huge awards from juries going to people on one side.
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And patients are stuck in the middle. I mean, you’ve got big businesses, big money surrounding care in general, and obviously the patient itself usually ends up being the small person, ends up being the one that gets…
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Yeah, and the other person stuck in the middle is the guys like us who are paying the premiums. Well, and the physicians. Because the premiums have gone up, skyrocketed.
SPEAKER 07 :
Yeah, and physicians are waiting. I mean, not only… I talk about delays, right? It’s not only delays to… Us as being insured and patients, the other delay in action that a lot of these insurers do is paying the actual service provider, the physician, and that creates another whole set of issues.
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We’ve got a new team of people coming in across the board. I mean, everybody from Dr. Oz to RFK to others that are going to try to clean up the industry a little bit. I talked to somebody who has a son who works for one of these accident lawyer companies in the Beverly Hills area. And he said they have a quota to meet, okay, of injured people to find. And we know where quotas went in our industry, right? Merrill Lynch and those, they had quotas. And they got a big hand slap and some big fines. for having quoted. So it cuts both ways, you know, I know. But anyways, we’ll come back and talk about more companies in the news today. This is the Best Docs Now show. And welcome back here to the second quarter of today’s Best Stocks Now show. Boy, the Chinese markets had a huge day yesterday. But, you know, they just never follow through. It was up like 8% or 9%, a lot of the usual suspects. It’s usually on some kind of stimulus, and that’s what it was. And now it’s backing off today, but they’re trying to get their economy going. They’re doing all kinds of things. Nothing’s working so far, but they did pledge to more proactive fiscal measures and looser monetary policy next year. which could revive economic growth and boost energy demand. But that’s just all talk right now. We’re not seeing it in the results of the Chinese economy. In the meantime, I’ve got to believe that… trump president trump elect is going to do something about this china’s trade surplus surged to 97 billion dollars in november from 69 billion in the same period a year earlier so it’s pretty obvious that’s a huge increase that’s a 50% increase is pretty obvious.
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Well, I guess they’re picking up a little bit. Maybe that’s showing some activity for China, right? We’ve been waiting for them to kind of take off since COVID and their failure to launch.
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Well, you know what he had to say to Trudeau up in Canada. You guys are ripping us off. We’ve got to narrow this trade gap. In other words, you, Canada, you’ve got to buy more of our products. Imagine what he’s going to do to China, where you’ve got a $97 billion trade deficit, which is up 50% from the same month last year. So obviously this wasn’t a high priority in the Biden administration because it exploded here. over the last 12 months. And who do you have as the new sheriff in town? None other than Peter Navarro, who wrote the book Death by China, who continues to eat our lunch as far as we’re buying a heck of a lot more of their stuff than they are buying from us. That’s the largest trade surplus in five months. And our exports to them slow. So anyways, that’s a huge number. I couldn’t help but notice that one here this morning. okay let’s see we are we got Oracle we’ll get to Oracle in a little bit Oracle is an AI wannabe and I think they are in that AI circle we’re going to get GameStop today that’s always interesting to see how much money they lost Adobe tomorrow Adobe is a pretty big player Costco on Thursday definitely a big player Who lost their contract with Costco? I said, oh, I know. Our friends at Procter & Gamble. No, Kimberly Clark lost the diaper contract with Costco. Oh, really? That’s got to hurt. You know, what can I say? A doo-doo happens and Kimberly-Clark loses a big client. We like to kid about Kimberly-Clark because it’s such a highly owned stock in the industry. You see it all the time. All the time. In the wire house accounts that transfer over to us, I think some people are at home listening to the show and they look at their portfolio and they see all these stocks we talk about. that the wirehouses love to own. But that’s a big loss. We’ll have to find out who got the contract. Maybe Costco is going to come up with their own Kirkland brand of diapers. I don’t know. Applovency’s worst day in two years. Well, you know what? Look, yesterday the biggest winners in the market this year were the biggest losers in the market. And I think Applovin was down about 12%, something like that. But the reason why, it didn’t make the cut for the S&P 500. Instead, it was Apollo Group. and workday you know it’s been my experience i see those stocks go into the s&p and the dow look at nvidia since it’s gone into the dow it really cooled off and uh other stocks that went into the s&p we saw smith microcomputer smci go or super microcomputer uh and recently we saw this tpl texas pacific land which is one of the biggest winners in the It seems like they go in the S&P 500 and they don’t take off. Instead, it seems to be kind of a headwind for them when they go into the S&P 500. But anyways, Applovin was not chosen. And Coinbase was another one that was a strong candidate. There’s somebody out there, I suppose, that tracks this kind of thing. Who are the next stocks to go into the S&P 500? Instead, it was Apollo Group, which we own in our dividend and growth, and it was Workday, which we don’t own. Well, I noticed a nice pop in Boeing yesterday. It seems to be putting in a long bottom, and it’s up 5.1% today. I’m surprised that the Dow is down today. Boeing has finally restarted their 737 line. Boeing’s up 5.2% right now. That’s a huge move. What’s holding the Dow down? Caterpillar, 3M, Merck, DuPont, Travelers, McDonald’s, Amgen. Okay, plenty of them. But Boeing, that’s a good chart on Boeing. Check out that chart. Here’s this long sideways base. I mean, this was the NASDAQ back in January of 2023. But the NASDAQ had a lot more momentum building up, I’m sure, than Boeing does. But all of a sudden, Boeing has broke above that ceiling of $163 per share. That’s a good lesson there in chart reading. That is a beautiful breakout. Now, we talk about the number four downtrend, and then it levels off like an airplane landing on the runway. into a number one sideways trend. And then think of these airplanes that do touch and goes, right? They land, they go flat for a long time on the runway, and then they take off from that runway. That’s a breakout from a number one sideways trend. And if you just think about it from a logic point of view, where’s the best place to buy a stock? Well, if it’s been going sideways, sideways, sideways, and all of a sudden it breaks out above that. In theory, that could be the beginning of a brand new, you’re at the beginning of a number two uptrend. So that’s why that is one of my favorite stock patterns in the entire market. And if you’re wanting to know what I’m talking about, look at the chart of Boeing today. It’s just a beautiful, picture-perfect example of a fresh breakout.
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The problem was the other side of that equation that we look at was the fundamental side, and the fundamental side was the danger point.
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And let’s not forget, a sideways trend can also break down and begin a new number four trend, which is also a catalyst to the downside. But right now, you have a catalyst to the upside in Boeing. When we come back, Lily’s on the docket next to talk about. This is the Best Stocks Now show. This is Bill Gunderson. Thank you for tuning in to today’s Best Stocks Now, Best Inverse Funds Now show. I put several hours of research in during the wee hours of the morning each day to bring you the very best cutting-edge stories that I can. To get two free weeks of my newsletter, go to GundersenCapital.com. To talk to us about our fee-based only money management services, call us at 855-611-BEST. Now, back to the second half of the show. Call out the instigator Because there’s something in the air And welcome back here to the second half of today’s Best Docs Now show. Lilly has just been kind of flat here recently. But it is the de facto leader in the weight loss drug with their ZepBound. I have noticed also that Novo Nordisk has got an improving chart. It finally bottomed out at 99%. Now it’s back to 110. But Lilly did a lot today. They’re going to hike their dividend by 15%. That’s pretty big to $1.50 per share. And they approved a $15 billion share repurchase program. I would expect to see a bigger reaction from Lilly. after that. It’s only up $1.63 today. It went down yesterday, too, along with those momentum stocks. Lilly was down about 2%, 3%. I think it was down $23 per share yesterday. The valuation still looks great on Lilly. It lacks the momentum side of the equation. The momentum, the relative strength right now is 43 on a scale of 1 to 99. And I’m not quite sure why. It’s just kind of dead in the water. You still have that compounding issue. Maybe you’ve got RFK breathing down the neck of the big pharmas. A lot of the big pharmas have come to a standstill here because of that. So we’ll see what goes on. Rocket Labs.
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And by definition, by the way, that RSI being in the mid-range of 100 is… is indicative of being slow. Right, exactly. Relative strength, think of it as average.
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Yes, and I’m sure if you looked at the Best Stocks Now app, you would probably see a momentum grade, I’m just going to look it up here real quickly, of C or C+, something like that. When it had, you know, it was a hot stock there for a long time. If I look at performance, that’s under performance of Lilly. The momentum grade, the performance grade is A+. Okay, so that’s long term. Right. I mean, over the last five years, 48% per year, market 18. The momentum grade right now is C+, on the Best Docs Now app. So, you know, look, sometimes it takes a catalyst. It takes a catalyst. I think that there’s been nothing but good news on it recently. You had the big advantage that it has over Wagovi and Novo Nordisk. Zepbound works a lot better, bigger weight loss. uh… and uh… then you have this news of them doing a big stock so i’m not too worried about it that’s that’s one of those ones the term that comes to mind here is be patient you know you have to be if you’re an investor in a company you’re going to go through some ups and downs and what not uh… with these companies over time but uh… you know you’re you’re interested in that goal three to five years from now And you can’t get all hot and bothered every time a stock sells off or has a big consolidation. Look at NVIDIA right now. NVIDIA is totally consolidating after it became the largest stock, the largest market cap. It passed Apple there for a while. And now the stock is definitely consolidating in a sideways number three trend. But at the same time, the valuation still looks very attractive. So it’s got the same issue that Lilly has. NVIDIA’s got a little better relative strength because it had a big run before it cooled off here. Its relative strength is still 95. It still remains one of the hottest stocks in the market, but since… The last couple of months, it’s just kind of going sideways in a 130 to 150 range. Rocket Labs pushes ahead with the Suborbital Hypersonic Technology Initiative for the Department of Defense. Now, the reason that caught my eye, Rocket Labs, number one, I noticed I didn’t have it in the app, so I put it in the app today. And number two, This is kind of where Russia, you know, Russia fired that missile back at Ukraine, and it was a hypersonic.
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Yeah, the ballistic.
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Yes, that flies under the radar, right, which is scary. And I listened to about a third of the interview. Tucker Carlson is in Russia. and he interviewed lavrov who’s been around he’s like uh… putin’s right hand man for many years like twenty thirty years And Carlson was talking about the possibilities, one of the possibilities of a nuclear war. I thought, you know, maybe I’ll give this a listen. And, you know, Russia’s known to detain people, but apparently Tucker Carlson, he’s interviewed Putin once, and now he’s back interviewing Lavrov. And there were a couple things that really surprised me in that interview. Number one, Lavrov says that Biden has not talked to Putin at all. I mean, which is kind of silly. You know, how do you resolve issues by not talking? That’s the worst thing you can do. I’m not talking to you. And anyways, I mean, it seems like Trump at least has a dialogue and Putin has a respect for Trump. But to not even have a conversation about Ukraine seems kind of strange to me. And the second thing that I really woke up and said, what did he just say? He said, you know, you people in America don’t take this lightly. Our threat, when America flies in these hypersonic missiles into Russia’s midland, we mean it. We’re going to strike back with something fierce and don’t rule out nuclear. So he said this is not an idle threat. This is real. It just seems reckless to me for Biden to amp this up in the last couple months of his presidency. Seems kind of weird to me that he would do that and put the country at risk of a nuclear, you know, a smaller type of nuclear weapon. Taiwan semiconductor November revenue surges 34%. Well, okay, there’s no trouble there in Taiwan with their business. Taiwan Semiconductor, TSM, the stock has had a good year. It’s up 91% since the beginning of the year. And we currently don’t own it. I worry about the political situation there in Taiwan. You know, now you’ve got China after a couple Taiwanese companies, NVIDIA, and I think I saw AMD also in there. They do not like Taiwanese. They don’t like Taiwan CEOs like Jensen Wang and Lisa Su of AMD, who are cousins. But things seem to be going well at Taiwan Semiconductor, even though that stock, too, it’s flattened out. The chip stocks have totally flattened out. So if you say, what’s wrong with NVIDIA? Well, you know what? Sometimes you have to look. It’s the entire sector. The entire semiconductor sector is consolidating right now after leading the way. Consider that Taiwan Semi is up 81% this year, but it’s really cooled off. It’s cooled off since mid-October, and I think it’s all about the China effect with them being denied access to a lot of these chips. Let’s see. Uber Eats teams up with McDonald’s. Well, that’s pretty big. That’s in Canada. Uber has been another stock that’s been very soft here recently. Part of that is some cities, Miami gave an exclusive to Google, their Waymo, for the autonomous cars. It seems to be about autonomous cars seems to be the issue with Uber. But, man, Uber’s got a lot of, they have a lot of things going for them, including Uber Eats. which continues to grow. And by the way, DoorDash has been hitting new highs here recently. That’s one of the strongest stocks in the entire market. So I think Uber is an undervalued stock right now. And I think it probably has to do a lot with the competition coming in from the other autonomous Tesla, the one from Waymo, and now Amazon is in on the act. So anyways, I still like Uber. I think it’s a good value. We’ll see. We need a catalyst there. Vanguard forms a new advice and wealth management unit. Now, here’s a company that is notorious. Their whole thing is indexes, buying indexes. Although they have come around a little bit more to active investments since John Bogle passed away. But he built that company on indexes. Why even try to beat the indexes? They beat 80% of all money managers out there. Well, now they’re going to go into the advice and wealth management business. In addition to just supplying, and I’m sure they will advise you to use indexes, Vanguard indexes in your plan, right, Perry? We’ll be right back.
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Go where you want to go, do what you want to do with whoever you want to be. Go where you want to go, do what you want to do with whoever you want to be.
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And welcome back here to the final segment of the Best Stocks Now show. Best performing ETFs year to date. You know, I was interviewed several weeks ago by Granite Shares ETFs, the CEO. and by a guy that is on Seeking Alpha, and I’ve gotten to know him a little bit on X, Twitter, and I went on their show. You can find it on X somewhere, I guess. I’m trying to think of the name of the guy. who interviewed me, I can’t think of his name right now, Granite Shares has the number one performing ETF year to date. And they take an interesting approach, Barry. The number one ETF is NVDL. Okay, why is that interesting? What’s unique about it? They own one stock. And it’s double. It’s two times NVIDIA. So it’s a 408% year to date. The number two ranked.
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The power of leverage.
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Yes, the number two ranked is Direction Shares. They have an NVIDIA bull two times. Now, I’m surprised that you can actually get permission for an ETF that is one stock. I mean, that totally defies the whole concept behind exchange-traded funds. But it’s basically you’re buying NVIDIA on margin, 2 to 1. The number 3 ranked ETF is Granite Shares 2 times Meta. Okay, it’s up 143% so far this year. And I bring this up, I received an invitation yesterday saying, to go to a bell-ringing ceremony in New York in about two weeks, maybe one week or so. Have you ever been up there to the New York Stock Exchange?
SPEAKER 07 :
Yeah, I haven’t been to the exchange, certainly haven’t rang the bell, and haven’t been there during the Christmas season either.
SPEAKER 06 :
No. Well, I’m afraid I’ll get my bell rung up there in New York. I don’t know. New York’s not the same place that I used to visit. But I’m thinking about it. to the dow which is a big deal to go to the opening bell ceremony to the dow but i’ll let you know and maybe you can look for me there uh my wife and i might head up there for that thing from granite shares i appreciate them inviting me and who knows Then just a few others. You’ve got a CoinShare ETF. I mean, ETFs, there’s all kinds. Bitcoin and Ether, that’s up 107%. Bitcoin Futures up 123%. Tesla, how about Tesla? I think it’s a two-to-one ETF up 127%. So, you know, and I’ve even looked into, I have an acquaintance that puts ETFs together. And he asked me for some ideas that I might have. And he says, if you have a good idea, we’ll put together an ETF for you. And my idea back then was the EVs, the technology, autonomous, batteries, everything, the car revolution taking place. I never did do it. But it might be interesting. If I were going to do an ETF today, it would be on our portfolios, Barry, because it would give them access. to the general public, right?
SPEAKER 07 :
And then you could purchase in whatever, in that case, you could purchase in whatever increment that you wanted. I mean, usually, you know, it’s an easier starting point, right?
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Now, one other story I want to mention here in the last few minutes. I looked into an ETF. I asked you about it. It was VYXZ, right? It was… It’s democratizing investments in venture capital. And the ETF allow, in that ETF is exposure to all of these startups, the best. The biggest and the best. But here’s the problem. Okay, there’s a thing called net asset value. Okay, so when you buy, this is a closed-end fund. So this especially comes to the fore with closed-end. You’re paying twice what the people on the street are paying for it. I mean, the big venture capitalists are paying for it. Because there’s so much demand for this ETF that you’re paying double. For these startups, so you’ve got this huge premium that you’ve got to overcome. That makes it a terrible investment.
SPEAKER 07 :
And I guess you do get some liquidity, given that it’s in an ETF, but still that can also end up being an issue. Well, you can trade it, right? If everybody runs for the door in times of crisis, that liquidity could potentially dry up, right? Because they wouldn’t be able to generate the needed liquidity.
SPEAKER 06 :
So let’s just say that one of their stocks is OpenAI in that venture capital ETF. Well, let’s say OpenAI is trading at a valuation of… uh… uh… fifty billion well you’re paying a hundred book that for that inside that he t f or that’s not an etf it’s a closed and fun so whenever you buy a closed and fun you want to look at where it trades the sum of the to ask me and the bid ask bread matters because you could be paying at a premium in this sense you’re paying a a a significant premium over net asset value would be like if a mutual funded if if all the stock actual fun were worth
SPEAKER 07 :
you know, a million bucks and you’re paying two million bucks for it or whatever.
SPEAKER 06 :
Okay, now I want to close with this one. This is brought to you by our Jeff Webster, one of my vice presidents here at Gunderson Capital Management. He forwarded me an article saying, hey, you’ve got someone out there calling this the new, the next NVIDIA. It’s called Rigetti Computing. And we actually brought it to your attention not too long ago. RGTI I remember there was a picture on the Yankees, Dave Rigetti. I think it’s spelled the same way. I’m sure there’s no link. But Rigetti computing is up 27% today. I did add it to my app a few weeks ago. But there’s one to put on your watch list, RGTI. I haven’t read the article yet. I just saw the headline today. about some big firm out there saying this is the next NVIDIA. Everybody’s driving in their cars going, what is it? Well, look, it’s just an article out there. I’m bringing it to your attention. But it has gone to a billion dollars very quickly since their IPO, RGTI Rigetti Computing. Well, the four-week trial is still on, GundersenCapital.com. And if you want to set up an appointment with us, get your portfolios positioned right before the beginning of a new year. 855-611-BEST. 855-611-BEST. Have a great day, everybody.
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All accounts are held at Charles Schwab. Schwab is a member of SIPC and FINRA.
