In this episode, Bill Gunderson, a seasoned money manager and the president of Gunderson Capital Management, dives into the latest market trends and developments. We explore the dips in gold and silver prices, analyzing the factors contributing to these changes and what they mean for investors. The discussion also covers the strategic movements in oil and the risks associated with the Bitcoin market. With keen insights provided on the resistance levels seen in major indices, this episode is essential for understanding current market dynamics.
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He’s been seen on CNBC, the Fox News Channel, and the Fox Business Channel. His articles can be found on MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, thestreet.com, and many other places. He’s the author of the weekly Best Stocks Now newsletter and the inventor of the Best Stocks Now app. He’s president of Gundersen Capital Management. Here is professional money manager Bill Gundersen.
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And welcome to the Wednesday. It is Wednesday, October 22nd. It is the live edition of the Best Stocks Now show with professional money manager Bill Gunderson, president of Gunderson Capital Management. I’m here with Barry Kite, our chartered financial analyst and certified financial planner. We have a down open to the market so far, but not a whole lot. I mean, we’re up against those all-time highs again. That’s providing a little bit of technical resistance here. The Dow is down 90 points right now. It’s at 46,834. It did hit its old high or very close to it yesterday and couldn’t punch its way through that resistance yet. Ditto with the NASDAQ. It’s down 14 today, but it’s at 22,939, just slightly below its all-time high. It did hit resistance yesterday. The S&P 500 is down a whopping one point. Now it’s up one point. as it vacillates between red and green here today. The 10-year is pretty quiet today, 3.96. I like to see it staying under that four mark. That’s nice, 3.96. Gold, which was the big story yesterday, and we’ll get to that here pretty soon. Gold is down 1.5% today, and Bitcoin is down again today, down 1,000 to 107.591. So welcome to today’s Best Stocks Now show with professional money manager Bill Gunderson, president of Gunderson Capital Management, a nationwide fee-based only money management firm. And I’m here with Barry Kite, chartered financial analyst. And for me, well, let’s just take a look at where we left off yesterday. Gold was obviously the big story, but the Dow was up 218, and it should be noted that as I looked at all the indexes this morning, they’re all bumping their head, ouch, that hurts, against the resistance levels of the new highs that they set here recently. It remains to be seen if that’s the top for now or whether we can punch our way through there. We take it a day at a time here in the markets. The NASDAQ was down yesterday about 37 points. There was pretty heavy selling profit-taking. I’m going to call it profit-taking in the nuclear stocks. the rare earth stocks, the AI stocks, the outer edges of the market, I guess you could say. But the big story yesterday, gold and silver suffer a historic one-day drop. Well, they’ve also had a historic year-to-date run, so it’s not unusual to see some corrections here from time to time. But it was pretty significant. I mean, a lot of the gold stocks… probably were hurt the most, even more than just owning the precious metals. You had Cordia Lane down 16.1%. Silver got hit even harder because it’s up even more this year so far. Endeavor Silver was down 13%. Goldfields down 12%. Anglo Gold down 11%. Eldorado down 10%. Agnico Eagle down 8.5% yesterday. It was a pretty sharp drop. I heard one analyst calling it panic selling. Well, I don’t know about that. Maybe it was yesterday. But I agree with, I guess, the consensus opinion out there that the long-term uptrend remains intact and whatever’s been driving gold here, all of those factors remain intact for now. but you are going to get sharp sell-offs and things that go way up. You get a hyperbolic move to the upside, Barry, and from time to time you’ll get a pretty steep sell-off and drop, which will kind of feed on itself, right?
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Leverage certainly can play a part as well because leverage is a big player in the commodities markets and futures markets in general. When you get into a market like that, you’ve talked about a lot of these single stock ETFs with leverage. Obviously, there’s plenty of gold ETFs with leverage. Three times gold. I want to find it out there. And on days like that, it cuts both ways.
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You know, there’s also the opposite of a short squeeze. There’s those that are getting squeezed big time. I mean, if you bet against gold like two months ago, you thought, wow, it’s hit $4,000. That’s it. There was a lot of short interest in gold. And they’ve been looking for an out, right? They’ve been looking for a chance to just get the heck out and lick their wounds. And sometimes a little bit of selling like that, a lot of guys will come in there and use that opportunity, right, as an exit. So that was all in play, I think, yesterday. Trump-Putin summit in Budapest is shelved. You know, we do have some peace in the Middle East, but Putin’s a tough guy, man. He’s not really willing to back down anytime soon. No. Until he conquers all of Europe and puts the USSR. I remember when I was a kid.
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It was a hard bargain.
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Yes, when I was a kid, Barry, I knew all of the satellite states, countries of the USSR, the United Soviet Socialist Republic, which included Hungary and Czechoslovakia and Poland and all the rest that are now independent countries.
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But we have field day and you would do you know, you’d have a different Olympic, you know, everybody would be different classes would be different Olympic countries. And, you know, you’d had West Germany. Yeah. Yeah.
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You know, as they had East Germany as a as a team. Yes. And they would do very well in the Olympics, the Eastern Bloc countries. especially in Latvia and Romania with Nadia Komanić and all that. U.S. government shutdown is now the second longest in history. Why don’t they just take a year off and let’s see what happens?
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But it is the second longest in history.
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Let’s see if anybody even notices. Hopefully they’re hoping for a resolution this week. Now, Barry, we have an answer to our question. Trump administration to buy one million barrels in first move to refill the U.S. oil reserves.
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I’ve been waiting for some kind of news around that to hit at some point.
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Yes. You want to sell high and buy low. Oil just hit $56 a barrel. I don’t know that I would have announced it. I think I would have done it quietly. But you’ve got oil up a little bit here today as Trump buying a million barrels or is going to buy. I’m sure he’ll have some traders work the market. Maybe he’ll bring in Besant. You know, Besant seems to be involved in everything. But I think refilling that is important. It’s a strategic reserve. It’s called that for a reason, okay?
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Well, some of the oil industry can’t be super thrilled with what’s going on simply because prices have been somewhat subdued. Yeah. You know, you’ve got to get away to buy some soybeans and refill up.
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And they were all a big backer of the administration, the farmers and the oil producers. Yeah. Yet that will help put in a bottom to these oil prices, which are down to 58. Got gas under $3 nationwide now. Earnings, wow, look at what’s going to happen after the close today. TSLA, Tesla. The venerable Elon Musk will report earnings after the close today. The big one last night we’ll talk about here coming up was Netflix. And to some extent, GE Vernova, which, you know, I’m still so impressed by GE’s earnings yesterday. and what Larry Culp has accomplished by, number one, isolating the aerospace part of GE and having just absolutely blowout earnings there. And then today, GE Vernova, we’ve also heard from AT&T so far today. You hear those soggy sneakers coming down the hallway, Barry? That is the press report with the question and answer period. We’re going to get IBM. There’s a few others. Tomorrow we’re going to get Intel. It’ll be interesting to hear an update from Intel. I wouldn’t expect much progress has been made. And then on Friday we’ll get Procter & Gamble. Now, short squeeze. How about this one? Here’s your stock of the day. You’ll never guess which one it is. Let me pull it up on the charts here and see if it’s hanging on to those gains. It was up 97% this morning. And the company is BYND, Beyond Meat, up 86% today. Why? Walmart is going to expand its relationship with Beyond Meat so you can be buying those Beyond Burgers. And hot dogs and Italian sausage made out of pea protein. Yes, that’s what it’s made out of, pea sprout protein. And Beyond Meat, what a short squeeze. If you were short Beyond Meat, which has just been tanking recently, it’s up 77% right now. We’ll be right back. And welcome back here to the second quarter of today’s Best Stocks Now show. Let’s take a gander at crypto, at Bitcoin today, which is challenging the nerves a little bit of Bitcoin investors. And like I said, I think two days ago, we’ve learned a couple things about Bitcoin this year. When the market sold off in early, late March, early April on the tariff concerns, Bitcoin was not exactly a safe haven. There was no flight to safety to Bitcoin. And it’s just my observation that Bitcoin is considered a risk asset. Barry, it’s not considered, and we’ve seen the opposite in gold here. It just seems to me that in times of duress and extreme unknowns that people rush to gold and not to Bitcoin. We learned that about Bitcoin here so far this year, and we just don’t know where that pain point is where you could see some heavy selling in Bitcoin. Now, it did recover some yesterday. It came down to its 200-day moving average on Friday. That’s long-term support, and a break of that long-term support could lead to, I mean, how many program traders have their program set at, if this thing breaks the 200-day moving average barrier, we’re going to lower our exposure. And that could set off a cascade of selling.
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Well, early in the week I saw, you know, last week I saw that you had a lot of short selling in Bitcoin. And what you have is you’ve got some of these folks who have held Bitcoin forever. And they’re still holding Bitcoin. And, you know, now… They actually have a market where they can actually hedge, obviously, their current Bitcoin holdings via short positions. A long time ago, obviously, it was hard to build a short position in Bitcoin because you just didn’t have as many people and the market didn’t have as much breadth.
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Yep. Okay, I always like to see macro outlook opinions. Some I agree with wholeheartedly, and some I can see the logic behind it. Others I disagree with. I think we had one recently coming from one of the big firms out there that were in the early innings of this bull market. I disagree completely. Very much so with that because the bull market began in 2009 if you look at a chart. And how can you say we’re in the early innings of that? That makes no sense whatsoever. Yesterday we had Lauren Taylor Wolfe. I haven’t heard of her before with impactive capital saying that this AI bubble is absolutely going to burst. And she compared it. with the dot com era of the late nineties and i’ve written uh… several articles about this and commented commented on it a lot and uh… while there are a lot of comparisons and there’s a fervor of going on in the sector the quality of growth the quality of earnings is much different than what we saw in the dot com era uh… i do agree the valuations are stretched very very high But I think that the comparisons with the 90s, the late 90s, I was there. The NASDAQ went down 79%. That’s how overvalued the NASDAQ was. But again, there wasn’t a lot of quality of earnings growth there.
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There’s actual earnings backing and earnings growth backing a lot of this AI boom.
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Yes, and a lot of the business models back in the late 90s that I witnessed were, let’s just get the company public. Let’s just get it public. And beyond that, beyond meat, there wasn’t a whole lot of real growth there to sink your teeth into. Now, there were some survivors, obviously. Cisco survived, and Amazon survived, and Apple survived. But a lot of those companies back then, dot-com companies, are gone because they really did not have a real solid business plan beyond the IPO. Okay, the biggest private debt. deal has just gone down uh… black rock invest big in the matter data center now yesterday we we found a company that was uh… involved in the big data center boom taking place in pennsylvania It was Talon Energy and Eos Energy. And now this one happens to be in Louisiana where Meta is building a massive, giant data center. And BlackRock has invested big in this Meta data center. And they’re funding it with private debt. Now here, this is the largest private debt offering ever. And we’ve talked about private debt. For me, there’s enough public debt to drown the whole world, right? We don’t need to be investing in private debt, but yet it remains one of the hottest issues out there. Now, here’s the red flag for me. Now, this is reminiscent of 08 and 09, okay, when the mortgage market, and I can’t remember which rating agency it was. Maybe it was all of them. Fitch and all of them were rating those subprime mortgages at A+. Well, Barry, check this out. The rating on this private debt offering received an investment grade of A+. by S&P global ratings. Now, something doesn’t add up here, yet the debt yields 6.58% at issue, a rate more characteristic of junk bonds. How do you justify an A-plus S&P global rating on a pool of debt that averages… That is yielding 6.58% when it’s issued.
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Yeah, it’s either one or the other, right? Yeah, one or the other.
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You tell the listeners what one or the other is, okay?
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Well, I mean, in the debt world, it’s either… A high-yield bond, right, that is going to yield more than the market and has more credit risk, or it’s going to trade something like a AAA-rated, very high-rated bond, and the yield is certainly not going to be as attractive.
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It’s going to be in the high 4s, low 5s, right?
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At best. At best. in this environment at best and so like i said it’s either one or the other and if they’re telling you that it’s they’re telling you that it’s triple a rated but the yield that it is still getting is a six percent yield then 6.6 Something doesn’t add up there. There’s a huge discrepancy here. I’ll tell you what it is. It’s a high-yield bond because that’s how it’s trading. Yes. I’ll go with the market on that one.
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When we buy individual bonds for people that want safety and a fairly determinable outcome, we look at maybe the low fives. And when you get up into the 6.6 realm, you’re looking at like not quite rare earth stocks, but you’re looking at stocks out there on the far end of the risk scale.
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There’s things that could go wrong.
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There’s a lot. And the market is telling you that by pricing this thing at 6.6%. We’ll be right back. This is Bill Gunderson. Thank you for tuning in to today’s Best Stocks Now, Best Inverse Funds Now show. I put several hours of research in during the wee hours of the morning each day to bring you the very best cutting edge stories that I can. To get two free weeks of my newsletter, go to GundersonCapital.com. To talk to us about our fee-based only money management services, call us at 855-611-BEST. Now, back to the second half of the show. And welcome back here to the second half of today’s Best Stocks Now. Shall I just go back to that private debt story one more time? Why would you not be all over a 6.6% yield that’s rated AAA? You have to question the AAA rating. That’s what you have to question. And that’s exactly what happened in 08 and 09. Somebody, I don’t know how, but they were getting AAA ratings on subprime mortgages. And something doesn’t add up here.
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And that’s why you’ve got to remember, when it comes to bonds, it’s a much more opaque market than it is buying an individual stock. Yes, very opaque. You can have 10 different, just call it 10 different bonds. You know, JP Morgan bonds and they could have, you know, 10 different sets of loan covenants and could have, you know, 10 different sets of collateral.
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Right.
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And which is all perfectly fine. But the difference is they all could have a different rating based on different collateral charges.
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And the market is almost always right, right? It’s telling you where the debt level is or the risk level is on this thing.
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I mean, and that’s the thing about bonds, right? I mean, it’s, you know, it’s very mathematical. And so, you know, a lot of times, you know, price doesn’t lie very much in the bond world. And so when, you know, like you said, when you see a… AAA-rated whatever instrument, and then, of course, you see that it’s paying a 7% interest rate, in my head I’d be like, okay, well, that must be a 50-year bond. Okay, well, it’s not a 50-year bond. It’s for a five-year bond. It’s like, okay, well, something doesn’t seem right there. It’s like that’s where you – That tells you right there, hey, let’s dive in and learn a little more. Yes.
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Okay. Yesterday, for me, the stock of the day was GE with that aerospace, the 400 engine order from Cutter and all this and that. But there was another one that I noticed during the course of the day was Embraer. the Brazilian manufacturer of all the little commuter jets. Do you know that Embraer reported a record $31.3 billion order backlog as deliveries increase? And where it showed up for me was in the chart. You know, as I went through, I don’t know, 700, 800 charts yesterday, I saw Embraer breaking out with a vengeance. ERJ, it’s an $11.5 billion company. Apparently, you know it seems like the airline industry and air travel is pretty robust right now i mean i’ve been to many airports this year i have not been on a flight yet i don’t remember the last time i wasn’t on a full flight and you had to check baggage we’re going to run out of room to put your overhead stuff and everything like this and there weren’t delays and uh and all kinds of issues with making your connections and whatnot so it’s pretty robust uh industry right now and it plays into embraer’s hands obviously because the commuter the smaller planes there’s plenty of those american eagle has them delta connection you know and all this and that but the stock broke out again yesterday we bought it when it was a relatively decent value And it went into our value portfolio. And I think it’s up 30% or 35% since we bought it. I did add to that for new clients yesterday that didn’t have any exposure to it. But, boy, I’ll tell you what, that was a solid move in Embraer yesterday. Okay, now we’ve got to talk about Netflix. Netflix has got a little bit of a controversy going on right now. And I think maybe that it’s showing up here in this earnings report because their subscriptions were down. You know, and you can kind of compare this with the issues at Budweiser, if you remember, where they had, you know, a transgender as a spokesperson for the brand. And you can kind of look at Target with what they did and how it hurt the stock. And it had a hard time recovering from those problems. Well, Netflix, you know, Elon Musk basically organized kind of a boycott and whatnot. He feels that there’s a transgender agenda at Netflix. Whether you’re for it or against it, it’s not good for a company to have that tag. Of course, Disney was caught up in that also, that same kind of controversy. And not good for an investor. No, Netflix is down 9.5% today. Yeah. But Netflix, I mean, has been a major disruptor over the years. Over the last 10 years, an investment in Netflix has delivered 29% per year, which is way better than the S&P 500. And you look over the last three years, an investment in Netflix has given you 67% per year return. For me, it’s in a different stratosphere than Disney, Target, and Budweiser. They’re all very slow growth companies. Netflix has been a fantastic performer. Over the last 12 months, Netflix is up 62%. Now, we’re going to have to see whether or not that they’ve got this tag on them now, and there’s going to be continued selling in the stock. But their earnings came in. They missed by quite a wide margin. Their EPS was $5.87. It missed by $1.10. That’s a pretty significant miss. But their revenue was in line. So that’s pretty good there, $11.5 billion for the quarter. Now, if I look at the valuation based on what we know now on Netflix, this could be a buying opportunity in Netflix. I can’t tell you right now what it is. I have to give it a few days and see where the dust settles, see where the numbers settle, see where the forward guidance comes in at. But as of yesterday, it had 84% upside potential. I like 80% or more. So Netflix meets all my criteria. It doesn’t quite meet the momentum criteria right now, which is an issue. It’s lost momentum due to this controversy that it’s going through. The valuation, however, is there. It wasn’t there for Budweiser. It wasn’t there for Target. It wasn’t there for Disney. But it is for Netflix. So take all of that into account as you look at this stock, which is down 9.6% today. It’s been a nice diversifier, right?
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I mean, it’s been, you know, the fact is, you know, it doesn’t have as much exposure from a tariff standpoint. So that’s another reason why.
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It held up well during COVID, right? Because people were going to Netflix. We own the bond in Netflix. And we own stock in Netflix. I would just say this right now. It’s sitting on its 200-day moving average. It’s come right down to that today, which cryptocurrency Bitcoin did last week. Bitcoin came down to its 200-day moving average last Friday. It held that, which is at about $106,000 for Bitcoin, and it’s been rallying off of that. If Netflix can’t hold its 200-day moving average and rally off of it, And if you start to see more selling and a breakdown below that 200-day moving average, then, you know, that’s a very big red flag warning. Today’s a red flag warning. We’ll call it a yellow flag warning here. Is this really hurting Netflix and their subscribers? They still had, I mean, their sales were up 17% year over year yesterday. which is pretty good for a $476 billion company. And like I say, I mean, it was 85% upside potential yesterday. Well, with this sell-off today… you could be looking at 90% to 95% upside potential, depending on where those numbers land. As I sit here right now, their earnings estimates for next year, which is what the stock is trading on right now, $32.41. And I’m going to watch that number. I’m going to write that number down. $32.41 is their earnings estimates for next year. Are we going to see a significant downgrade to those earnings estimates? Because everything is baked into the earnings estimates at the end of the day. If there’s a significant downgrade, like a couple of bucks or something, I don’t expect that. Or will those earnings estimates stay the same? then you may have a very, very good buying opportunity. Only time will tell here over the next several days where we’re at with Netflix right now. NFLX. is the symbol there. And when we come back, boy, I’ll tell you, one of the biggest owned stocks in the world that’s in almost everybody’s portfolio, if you’ve got a wire house account. And also, we’re going to report on that. And also, GE Vernova, which obviously is the spinoff of GE, and it holds that nuclear division. We’ll be right back. And welcome back here to the final segment of today’s Best Stocks Now show where we’re seeing another sell-off again in tech land. The nuclear, the AI stocks, which, look, they are all hitting new highs here just like three days ago. So you’re seeing some risk being taken off the table right now as the market, the NASDAQ, the S&P, the Dow, all hit technical resistance. They bump their head on that and sometimes, you know, that’ll stagger them for a few days and it’s a question of whether or not they can pick themselves up and break through those old highs or if, you know, you’re beginning of some kind of correction here. in the market which is overdue we’ve been going up since april the 8th of this year well the venerable at&t probably the most owned stock that i’ve ever seen it’s almost in every single portfolio that has ever come to me from any of the big wire house firms or any of the big names out there And that’s all they’ve had is they’ve been disrupted by just about everybody over the years. They’re on the disrupted side. They’re not on the disruptor side of the equation. And, you know, if you look at the returns on AT&T over the last, well, I’m going to do the valuation first. That’s really where I have tremendous heartburn. if I owned AT&T. The analyst five-year annual growth projection is 3%. Low single digits. And let’s just test it. Okay, this quarter that they just reported here, their sales were up 2%, Barry, versus the same quarter last year, 2%. That’s about as anemic as it gets. But it gets worse than that. You know how much their earnings were up versus this same quarter last year? Zero. They’ve made no progress whatsoever over the last 12 months in increasing their earnings or their sales other than about 2%, 3%. And that’s what the analysts have projected, which might be a little bit on the optimistic side. Now, when you take their earnings estimates for AT&T, which are $2.21 next year, and by the way, you go back eight years ago, they were making $3.50 last Over the last five years, their earnings growth has been minus 9% per year. I kind of use this as the poster child whenever I speak in front of an audience and showing them what a soggy stock looks like. I mean, all things being equal, a 2% or 3% grower in earnings is going to deliver 2% or 3%. capital appreciation plus the dividend. The dividend yield on AT&T right now is 4.4%. And if you add those two together, at best, you’re going to make about 6% per year off of AT&T. Heck, I can get that in a AAA-rated private bond offering, Barry. I can get 6.6%. I think there’s a lot more risk to owning private debt versus AT&T, but… Just don’t expect double-digit returns from AT&T. What has it returned over the last 10 years? Well, let’s just test the numbers I just threw out. Over the last 10 years, the stock has delivered 6.3% per year to investors, 6.3%. So what makes you think that all of a sudden it’s going to give you 12, 13, 14, and even beat the S&P 500? It can’t even keep up with the S&P 500. It has had a pretty good year this year. I think people looked at it and said it’s immune from Trump’s tariffs. It pays a good dividend. So it has had one of its best years. It’s up 24% over the last 12 months. That’s an anomaly. That is an anomaly. Take the money and run. You had a gift in getting a 24% return out of a 3% grower. over the last 12 months. The stock is selling off today. It’s part of this downdraft here in the market today. AT&T is down 2% today. But I guarantee if you go to one of the big wire house firms and they go shopping, you give them money to go shopping with. They go down the aisles of Wall Street in their shopping cart. The first one they’re going to, it’s right there in the A aisle, right? It’s one of the first stocks they come to Let’s put AT&T in this person’s portfolio. That’s just the way it is. But they had strong subscriber ads. That’s their internet. And their ongoing wireless momentum. I’m not seeing any momentum whatsoever. Not with 0% growth in earnings. and 2% growth in sales. Okay, we’ve got time for one more. We’re going to go to Vertiv, V-R-T. It was way up. Now it’s way down. Something’s reversed here in the NASDAQ. I don’t know what it is. There may have been an analyst… Something’s happened in the world or in the markets that has pretty much turned the AI stocks, the nuclear stocks, the data center stocks, et cetera, probably the rarer, all down the line, the quantum stocks, to the south right now. Vertiv was up solidly. Now it’s down 5.5%. But let’s just compare their earnings report with AT&T. Their sales were up 29% year over year. That’s pretty solid for a $63 billion company. And their earnings were up 63%.
SPEAKER 1 :
63%.
SPEAKER 06 :
But they’re heavily involved in data center, digital infrastructure, communication networks. They’re right smack dab in the middle of the AI boom. and that is seeing some profit taking here today vert is now down 5.5 but definitely has the numbers this may be a buying opportunity on vert we’ll have to watch it see where the dust settles see where those earnings estimates go etc okay well to get four weeks to stay on top of what’s going on in the market it is getting a little bit more volatile which sometimes happens towards the end or at the end of huge runs. We’ve had a huge run since April 8th of this year. And you’re going to see some profit taking. You’re going to see some sector rotation, etc., which is pretty typical. That’s why you have to stay on top of things, which I do on a daily basis. I send out all my alerts during the day. You can get four free weeks of that at GundersenCapital.com. to set up an appointment with us for money management. If you look at your portfolio and you see AT&T right in the middle there, probably right at the top of your statement, give us a call at 855-611-BEST. 855-611-BEST. Thanks for joining us today and have a great day, everybody.
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This show is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Bill Gunderson or clients of Gunderson Capital Management may have long or short positions in stocks mentioned during the show. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Gunderson Capital Management is a fee-based registered investment advisory firm. All accounts are held at Charles Schwab. Schwab is a member of SIPC and FINRA.
