In this episode of Rush to Reason, host John Rush is joined by Alex Rosado to delve deep into the current state of community banking in America. They discuss the challenges small banks face post-Dodd-Frank Act, how it affects entrepreneurs, and what it means for the free market. With big banks absorbing smaller players, personalized banking is becoming scarce, impacting local businesses profoundly. John and Alex articulate the significance of locally tailored banking solutions that foster competition and economic success. They navigate the intricate relationship between government regulations and their unintended consequences on small financial institutions, small business owners,
SPEAKER 18 :
This is Rush to Reason.
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You are going to shut your damn yapper and listen for a change because I got you pegged, sweetheart. You want to take the easy way out because you’re scared. And you’re scared because if you try and fail, there’s only you to blame. Let me break this down for you. Life is scary. Get used to it. There are no magical fixes.
SPEAKER 19 :
With your host, John Rush.
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My advice to you is to do what your parents did. Get a job first. You haven’t made everybody equal. You’ve made them the same, and there’s a big difference.
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Are you crazy? Am I? Or am I so sane that you just blew your mind? It’s Rush to Reason with your host, John Rush. Presented by High Five Plumbing, Heating, Cooling, and Electric, where every call ends with a high five.
SPEAKER 19 :
All right, we are back. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. Hour number three is upon us. Alex Rosado joining us now. Alex, welcome. How are you? Rosado, I should say. Let me make sure I say that right, Alex.
SPEAKER 09 :
You’re all good. Thank you so much for having me.
SPEAKER 19 :
I appreciate it. I talked about you a little bit yesterday with another guest that I had on because of the whole small business, banking, the reality that that end of things has changed for a lot of different places across the country. Community banks are not doing well. There hasn’t been very many chartered, I think, since 2011. I don’t have the number in front of me. You do. But the reality is we have seen a decline since about 2009, and the reality is that’s not good for small business, and I’m one of those.
SPEAKER 09 :
No, unfortunately, the situation in America is not so great with community banking, and that is largely because of the Dodd-Frank Act that was passed all the way back in 2009 as a response to the financial crisis that happened in 2008. And to that statistic that you were alluding to earlier, there’s about fewer new bank charters and there’s a lot less since 2011 with gigantic banks that are worth more than $100 billion worth of assets controlling about 60% of all banking assets today. That’s not great for competition or the free market.
SPEAKER 19 :
No, it’s not. And it’s hard, and maybe you can help me with this, Alex. It’s hard to explain to those individuals that maybe just collect a paycheck each week. They work for somebody else, which I’m not against, by the way. But, you know, they might have a bank account at, you know, Wells Fargo or Chase or some of the big guys. And, you know, great. You know, that’s fine. I’ve got nothing against that. You know, those banks have a place in those particular areas in a lot of cases, Alex. But for me personally as a small business owner, those are not – My banks. I have always had a relationship with somebody that I feel is local, that’s a part of the community, that knows me, that knows my business. And the reality is that’s getting harder and harder to find, to your point, because a lot of the little banks have been absorbed by even larger regional banks, and regional banks get absorbed by the national banks. And before you know it, there’s nobody left. And then guys like me who are used to doing business with somebody along those lines, there’s no one left to do business with.
SPEAKER 09 :
No, you really hit the nail on the head with that. There’s always somebody bigger up on that supply chain. And when it comes to the community banks, most consumers, especially young, hungry entrepreneurs who want to lay the foundation for businesses, other ventures to procure capital, they see that community banking has that personalized and tailored approach that a lot of those regional and gigabanks don’t have. Do you think a C-suite executive on Wall Street who worked at Wells Fargo or Chase is going to know the needs and wants of your community?
SPEAKER 03 :
No.
SPEAKER 09 :
Probably not.
SPEAKER 19 :
No.
SPEAKER 09 :
But if you have those smaller banks, they’re willing to have more risks when it comes to giving you and lending you capital and credit for businesses. But having those power within those big banks that are more risk-averse, especially since the financial crisis, that doesn’t really do much to stir a lot of the appetite when it comes to people who want to have economic freedom and success in this country.
SPEAKER 19 :
It always cracks me up, too, because when you see the ads for a lot of the big banks, they talk about, you know, we want to be a part of the community and we want to do this and we want to help your business grow and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And the first thought I always have, Alex, I’m not trying to be cynical here, but the first thought I’ve had has been self-employed since I was. 22 years old, so 1986. I’ve been self-employed since then. And I’ve had lots of relationship with banks over the years. And I will tell you that as much as those guys want to put that in those commercials, they rarely back that up with actions.
SPEAKER 09 :
No, and especially when it comes to having grandiose ideas in America, it’s become in a sense where you can become defined by what you can’t do rather than what you can do when it comes to having economic and entrepreneurial success. And it shouldn’t have to be that way.
SPEAKER 19 :
It should be the opposite of that.
SPEAKER 09 :
No, exactly. And especially with some of the restraints that you’ve seen with the Dodd-Frank Act. It drains a lot of the precious resources from these smaller community banks that could be used for lending. And unfortunately, the loans have dried up in these past couple of years. And while Dodd-Frank was trying to stop the predatory practice of bigger banks, it actually destroyed the innovation of neighborhoods across America.
SPEAKER 19 :
Yeah, it actually did. It had the opposite effect, I guess you could say, which, by the way, that is not untypical for government. They try to fix something, and at the end of the day, all they do is make matters worse, and that’s pretty typical of government. I’m sorry, but it is.
SPEAKER 09 :
It’s a very counterproductive feat, and you’ve seen that not only with economics but with social policy and trying to tame some of the cultural issues that we have today, and it’s a very big interplay between all of these factors. But my pitch to this is that it’s not big banks that are the problem.
SPEAKER 19 :
Yep. Thank you. Absolutely. Yeah. Yeah. I’m not blaming them either. I mean, they have, like I said earlier, they have a place. They do really well for a lot of the retail consumer goods and credit cards and different things that people need on that end of things. And they have a place, Alex, you know, mortgages and stuff like that. So I’m not saying they don’t have a place because they do. But when they start, you know, because of the policy, to your point, when that starts shutting out all of the little local guys that will help folks like me out, that’s a problem.
SPEAKER 09 :
No, you’re exactly correct. It’s a place where it’s supposed to be competitive, but also a place where you can have and carve out your own niche and footing. And there’s no better way to do that, especially within your community, that’s going to have different mores and attitudes and viewpoints, especially on economics, because it varies from town to town, village to village, state to state. And that’s where the community banking, its uniqueness and its standing shines. But unfortunately, if you have these larger entities that don’t quite understand that dynamic and aren’t as adaptable to it, you’re going to make the whole banking industry less dynamic as a whole. And that hurts a real lot of consumers, especially when it comes to businesses. You’ve seen that during the COVID pandemic, when a third of small businesses across the country have shut down completely and have not reopened since.
SPEAKER 19 :
Do you see the Trump administration, Inauguration Day is Monday, we’ll see a lot of things happen on Tuesday. Do you see him and those that are around him understanding what you and I are talking about enough to actually fix this problem?
SPEAKER 09 :
I would certainly hope so. There is a brighter future on Monday than there has been in the last four years in terms of economics. But here’s the kicker with it. By making sure that everybody in the small community banks gets shut out, it actually enraged everybody across partisan lines. Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, Independents all want to see Dodd-Frank repealed, and especially with some of the processes that we’ve seen play out in Congress and even within the administration itself. There is hope that we can have good financial regulatory policy come in. You have Elon Musk, who’s going to co-head the Department of Government Efficiency, saying that he wants to roll back one of the main parts of Dodd-Frank, which is the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which costs consumers a lot of pain in their wallets. And he just wants to take that over, trim the fat off of it, make sure that we have the resources to flourish as people and also as contributors to the economy.
SPEAKER 19 :
I know you guys will be watching this. I will as well. How do folks find you, Alex?
SPEAKER 09 :
You can find me on Twitter slash X at Alex P. Rosado.
SPEAKER 19 :
Awesome. I enjoy talking to you, Alex. Appreciate it very much. And we will be looking forward to next Monday. Let’s just say that.
SPEAKER 09 :
We will, too. Thank you so much for having me.
SPEAKER 19 :
Appreciate you, man. Have a great evening. And Alex, great young man, and I appreciate every time he’s on with us, and I enjoy it greatly. Flesh Law is next. Civil, criminal, whatever the case, if you need some help, give Kevin a call today, 303-806-8886.
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SPEAKER 19 :
This is Rush to Reason on KLZ 560. All right, talking about TikTok really quick, because I know we were talking to Cindy Kutcher last hour about that, and I was just talking to Charlie. I feel, I could be wrong, but I feel one of Trump’s first moves on Tuesday, if not late Monday. will be to stop the TikTok ban, executive order-wise. Now, is it legal? Will it stand? I have no idea. But I predict he will do that for a couple of reasons. One, I think he wants to see it continue on. He understands the value of it. Number two, he will send a message to a large voting bloc that got him elected that says, I’m on your side. So even if it doesn’t stand, it’ll send a message. Yeah, thank you, Charlie. Even young people that didn’t vote for him, that’s going to send a message that I’m on your side. So look for that. What comes out of it, I don’t know. We’ll find out and probably talk about it this time next week after we have a few days of President Trump actually being in office. But that’s my prediction. I could be completely wrong. And some of you that don’t even know what TikTok is are probably thinking, who cares? Trust me, 170 million Americans. Yes, I just said that. 170 million Americans use TikTok. That is well over, well, about half of all Americans on TikTok. That’s not a small number, folks. And there’s lots of businesses and so on. Anyways, just look for that. All right, article I read the other day that caught my eye, coloradosun.com. Colorado schools with declining enrollment brace for a gut punch as governor’s budget proposes funding cuts. Now, I read that and I’m thinking, are you guys just that dumb? You’re supposed to be educators. You’re supposed to be smart. Are you really this stupid? If you’re Enrollment is declining. In other words, your population and the amount of kids you have in your area is declining. Why are you not already preparing yourself budget-wise for what’s coming? And I can give you the answer because, number one, they’re not that smart. Even though they’re educators, they’re not that smart. They might be book smart, but they’re not smart any other way. On top of that, they love doing what they’ve always done. They’re used to it. They don’t want to have any cuts. They’re used to living, you know, fat off the hog. And I know some of them would argue that they don’t, but trust me, they do. Maybe not all… folk inside of a school district do but by and large they have plenty of funding trust me that’s all i you know you talk about something i get tired of hearing is that we underfund education in america and or colorado and nothing by the way nothing could be farther from the truth nothing could be farther from the truth We fund it just fine. It’s what they do with the funds that’s the problem. And you never hear anybody talk about that because nobody wants to. That’s like talking about cutting back Social Security, raising the age limit or whatever. It’s political suicide, so nobody ever talks about it, even though it needs talked about. Now, if I were running for election, I’d have no problem talking about Colorado and schools and budgets and so on because, in my opinion, they’re overfunded. In my opinion, you could go in, and I’ve said this numerous times, you could trim back budgets in every single school district across this state in a heartbeat, one fell swoop. A lot of it could be done in the way we manage the facilities. Bus routes on down the line. I’m not even talking about teachers, salaries, pay, administrators, anything along those lines. I’m just talking about the core part of what we do with buses and buildings. I guarantee you. we could consolidate schools in a lot of areas in this state, sell off other buildings and land that are owned by said school district, generate revenue, and cut budgets. And I could do that overnight. And I challenge anybody that’s on that side of the aisle to prove me wrong. Because I guarantee you, when you have less students… which is where some of these budget cuts are coming from, what I just said is true. I drove by, didn’t even know this was happening, was going up to Boulder. My grandparents and my wife’s father are buried up in a cemetery on the south end of Boulder, so we went up to visit not long ago. Brand new high school built up on the hill in Boulder just off of Broadway. And last I checked, unless I’m wrong, their population in Boulder doesn’t increase. It can’t, by the way, because it’s surrounded by open space, which is what they created all the way back in the 60s, and there’s no place to build anything new. And I can tell you right now from the demographics of people that live in Boulder, I guarantee you there’s less kids going to school today than there ever has been. On top of that, homeschool, private school, and so on, I would have to look at the actual numbers, but I would be shocked if there’s more students today than there was in the past, and yet Boulder County built a new high school. Why? Something wrong with Boulder High, something wrong with Fairview. This is in between the two, by the way. When I drove by that the other day, I looked at my wife with this shocked look like, you have got to be kidding me. What an absolute waste of money. That’s one example. And I could go down the list of others, and yet we’ve got an article talking about how literally shocked, and this is a gut punch, as Governor Polis talks about funding cuts. Now, Governor Polis, if he’s got half a brain, will do this because it’s one of the places you could actually round up some money for the state. And again… I get it. There’s been inflation that drives up some costs that happen, you know, when it comes to heating the buildings and different things and so on. I get it. You know, inflation affects everybody, including them and their districts. But I can also tell you that every one of those districts, like every other government entity that’s out there, has bloat and plenty of. Now, I will also tell you that, in my opinion, one of the first places that a lot of districts, not all, I get there’s some rural districts that would have a hard time with this, but there’s a lot of city districts where you could cut the bus service back a certain percentage, widen the circle when it comes to kids that actually have to ride the bus to get to school and save money that way. In other words, if you’re within a certain mile radius, you’re getting to school on your own. Whatever that – and I don’t know what the number is now, but so many ways to save money. Honestly, I could just go line by line by line. Joe, go ahead.
SPEAKER 06 :
John, a couple things. One, with regard to Colorado and the schools, it’s not like it snuck up on them. Thank you. You can look at kindergarten enrollment and first-grade enrollment, and you can actually – you can trend plot every year. How many first-grade students did we have in 2020 and 2021? And you can see it’s declining every year. And, of course, that trend will continue on. I mean, if your first grade enrollment is down 20% from 10 years ago, that means in eight years from now, your middle school enrollment is going to be down 20%. Right. So it’s not like, you know, a gut punch is something that sneaks up on you. You turn around and wind up, somebody smacks you in the gut. This should not be a surprise to anybody.
SPEAKER 19 :
This is a gut punch. They’re just being dumb, Joe. Right. Sorry, like I opened up with. I mean, these are supposed to be educators that are supposed to be smart, but they’re not.
SPEAKER 06 :
I mean, it’s the simplest thing in the world to predict this. And when I was running businesses, we would look at the trend. We didn’t wait for something to hit us in the face. We would do trend plot. What’s new orders this month versus last month? What’s new orders versus six months ago? What’s new orders in January of this year versus January of last year? We’re always doing trend analysis, but apparently trend analysis is a skill these people didn’t learn in teacher college.
SPEAKER 19 :
Well, the other thing, too, that, as you know, in all these districts that happens is the per pupil count is there, whether your kids go to home, you know, whether you homeschool them, private school them or whatever, they’re still in the count. But, yeah, but you know how many people are attending because your school reimbursement… No, but what I’m saying is they’re still basing a lot of, like, Polis, when he looks at budgets and so on and how they count students, doesn’t matter if that kid goes to school or not. That head count’s still there, Joe.
SPEAKER 06 :
But they don’t take into account how many people are being homeschooled or going to private schools?
SPEAKER 19 :
I think that’s one of the things Polis is talking about changing.
SPEAKER 06 :
Okay, it’s not like it’s a secret because, you know, schools… Because you’re aware that there comes like a certain day or two days of the year where when you apply for a DE, Department of Education funding, it’s based upon your attendance on that day. So the schools make a big deal of making sure that everybody’s there. So they know how many kids are enrolled in the school versus students. As you know, as we just discussed, you’ve got kids being homeschooled and kids going to private school. But it’s an easy number. It’s not like the number of kids enrolled in your school or your school district is a mystery. That’s a well-known number.
SPEAKER 19 :
Yeah, and to your point, it’s a well-known number even where that’s going to be in the future. So depending upon where you’re at with it, I get that people can leave and add and so on and so forth. But on average, Joe, you know if you’ve got this many elementary kids this year, you’re going to have that many middle school kids down the road versus that many high schoolers down the road. Joe, this isn’t rocket science.
SPEAKER 06 :
No, and it shouldn’t be a gut punch. You can see this coming from a mile away.
SPEAKER 19 :
And we know that coast to coast, here in Colorado especially, attendance is down because the population growth is down. Down.
SPEAKER 06 :
Now, if I may, can we just go to extreme? Let’s talk about Los Angeles for a minute.
SPEAKER 19 :
Oh, sure.
SPEAKER 06 :
Latest count, Los Angeles has lost 12,000 homes. Now, if you assume an average of just 1.5 million, K-12 age school kids in each one of those 12,000 homes, that’s 18,000 kids that have left the area. Right. Good point. And by the way, it’s not like there were 12,000 apartments or homes for rent within 50 miles of L.A. Those 12,000 people, they’re more than 100 miles away now because there weren’t 12,000 Airbnbs or homes for sale or vacant apartments within 50 miles of Los Angeles. So those 12,000 families, they’re no longer in the L.A. consolidated school district. Well, at 1.5 kids per home, that’s 18,000 kids at 500 kids per school. You’re talking 36. That’s the equivalent of 36 schools that aren’t going to be needed anymore.
SPEAKER 03 :
Right.
SPEAKER 06 :
And how do you think L.A. is going to deal with having 36 surplus schools? Because I don’t believe any of the schools burned down. So they’re going to have 36 schools and 36 staffs.
SPEAKER 19 :
Great point. That they will not cut any on, as you know.
SPEAKER 06 :
Well, and here’s why. Well, if they don’t, here’s the other problem. I did a little math on the property tax rate on those homes. Annually, they’re going to be missing loans. $1 billion worth of property tax revenue. Wow. A billion, John.
SPEAKER 19 :
Huge. Huge, Joe. And by the way, that doesn’t count all of the other ancillary spending that goes on outside of that because those people, to your point, aren’t there any longer.
SPEAKER 06 :
Right.
SPEAKER 19 :
That’s just property tax, right?
SPEAKER 06 :
That was just property tax. I’m not counting anybody. City and County of L.A. had a 9.65% sales tax. Now, some of that went to the state, but if you figure four and a half people per per home times 12,000 homes, you’re talking… That’s a huge impact. Yeah, they’re not going to be spending money. They’re gone. When they’re buying their clothes, their groceries, batteries… Joe, that’s an entire city gone. That’s the town of Castle Rock. That’s right.
SPEAKER 19 :
Gone.
SPEAKER 06 :
That’s right. Castle Rock. So all that money is not going to be spent. Nope. So they’re not going to get the sales tax revenues. And because they’re not spending that money.
SPEAKER 19 :
And, Joe, I predict, and I’ve talked about this before, I think even on my weekend shows, there’ll be a percentage of those that are like gone, gone. They’re not coming back to California, period. They’ll just leave.
SPEAKER 06 :
Well, or if they’re. Staying in California, they’re hundreds of miles away from L.A.
SPEAKER 19 :
Yeah, and my prediction is you’ll – I’m sorry to say, you’ll see some of them move here.
SPEAKER 06 :
Unfortunately, you’re right. But let’s go even further. Let’s go back to L.A. So not only is L.A. going to miss out on the sales tax revenues from 50,000 people, John, the businesses, the restaurants, the movie theaters, the clothing stores, the shoe stores – Those businesses are going to – many of them are going to fail because that’s a significant portion.
SPEAKER 04 :
That’s right.
SPEAKER 06 :
And as those businesses fail, their staffs get laid off. They stop paying property taxes because a shuttered business doesn’t pay property taxes to the city and county of L.A. anymore. True. So they’re going to lose out to the – It’s a snowball effect. Yeah, it’s going to be a cascading snowball effect. Yep. So you’re going to be the mayor of L.A. and the city council – You’re going to be looking at more than a billion-dollar revenue shortfall to your budget between property taxes and loss of sales taxes. And you’re going to have the equivalent of 36 spare schools and school staffs on your hands. What are you going to do as the city and county, the city and mayors of L.A. in the years next year?
SPEAKER 19 :
That is a great question. I talked a little bit about this on our roundtable discussion this morning. Everybody can hear here in about a half an hour because, Joe, what I said was the fire itself, the loss that’s there right now is the tip of the iceberg to the things you and I are now talking about.
SPEAKER 06 :
Yeah, and to rebuild 12,000 homes, John, a decade. A decade plus. Yeah. You know, you might get 10% a year, you know, over the next 10 years.
SPEAKER 19 :
I said that even in Superior-Louisville fires here, Joe, that happened a few years ago here, that it would be a decade before everything’s back to normal here, and I’m not going to be far off.
SPEAKER 06 :
Yeah, and I don’t know, you know, where you find all the different crews. And, of course, those crews are going to have to be coming in from, from way outside the L.A. district.
SPEAKER 19 :
Correct. And again, there’s opportunity there, and there’ll be some growth with that economically and so on. But to your point, it’s going to be decades before things get back to normal. And the other thing people are forgetting is there’ll be some areas, I predict, that government doesn’t even allow to get rebuilt. They’ll just say, yeah, no houses here anymore. You’re done. Sell your land off.
SPEAKER 06 :
Yeah, and they’ll also – and I’ll be stunned, John, if they don’t change the building codes in terms of mandating – Tyler metal roofing, stucco instead of wood or vinyl siding, which, by the way, anybody who’s going to have a house built or thinking of remodeling. My house down in Larkspur, I lived in a very rural area, a lot of big pine trees. The house was originally built with clapboard siding. When I had it redone, John, we ripped the clapboard off and put stucco. We made the house fireproof.
SPEAKER 19 :
I just got a text message, Joe, proving our point that somebody just texted that there’s already realtors in Phoenix advertising on the radio in L.A. pandering to those fire victims to come there. Yep. Already happening, Joe.
SPEAKER 06 :
If I was a realtor in Phoenix, John, and I was smart enough, I’d be doing the same thing.
SPEAKER 19 :
I wouldn’t be surprised if some of ours here aren’t smart enough to do the same thing.
SPEAKER 06 :
I’d be putting up billboards on the highways in and around LA saying, you know, we have homes, call me. You know, even up in Tahoe. And by the way, a lot of businesses over the past decade, because I used to be involved in the business, have moved just over the border to Utah. That’s right. St. George, Utah is booming. St. George’s gain is California’s loss. I mean, St. George is just literally over the border from California. But the business climate is completely different. Cost of living is completely different. And St. George, Utah, has seen a huge influx. And you look at where St. George is. It’s on the southern tip of Utah, just right next to California. I mean, you drive two miles and you’re in California. Yep. and I think you’ll see a lot of people going to Utah. If they’re smart, they’ll go to Utah.
SPEAKER 19 :
Yep, you’re right. Joe, man, that’s good stuff. I appreciate it, as always.
SPEAKER 06 :
You’re welcome, John. Thank you, man.
SPEAKER 19 :
Have a great night. We’ll have Scott on with us in just one moment. High Five Plumbing and Electrical is next. Yes, make sure you’re ready for the storm coming in this weekend. 877-WE-HIGH-FIVE.
SPEAKER 16 :
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SPEAKER 19 :
All right, we are back. Welcome, Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush. Scott Garlis joining us now. Scott, welcome. How are you today, sir? Hey, John, I’m well. How are you? Always good. Good to talk to you. Talk to us about inflation and some of the new data that’s out.
SPEAKER 08 :
Yeah, so one of the big things that’s been going on in the stock market lately, we talked about this last week, is Yields have been on a tear since the Federal Reserve made its last rate decision in December. Some members expressed concern with inflation picking back up in 25. And some of them said also they were concerned about Trump’s tariff policies. Well, so today we had numbers come out. The headline number, which is the annualized rate of growth, it rose to 2.9%. And so on the surface, that seems bad, right? But when you start to dig through it, what you see is, you know, over the last six months, the pace of monthly growth has been running at less than 0.1% per month. And so when you start to annualize that out, that looks like 0.9% over the next 12 months. So I say this because At the beginning of last year, we still had a lot of stimulus money in savings, and it was being spent in January, February, March. So January, February, and March, when we look at the annualized numbers of 24, they were the hottest numbers in the last 12 months. They’re going to start to drop off over these next few months, and then all of a sudden what you’re going to see is the pace of annualized growth is going to plummet. It could be sub-2% when the March numbers come out.
SPEAKER 19 :
Okay. So in other words, a lot of hype here and a lot of folks may be getting amped up and worried about something that, frankly, will adjust back down and not be a big issue anyways.
SPEAKER 08 :
That is exactly right. And so we’ve seen bond yields run almost to 5%. We saw the stock market get pummeled. And then you had the Trump camp. Didn’t directly say it that I know of, but some people spoke to reporters at Bloomberg and said, look, in terms of the tariffs, one of our intentions is to gradually roll them out over time. Supposedly some people in Besant’s camp had said this. And, you know, what that sounds like to me is they would use them as a leverage tool, and instead of fully implementing them, they would start with something small.
SPEAKER 19 :
Yeah, and I think, Scott, by the way, I won’t disagree with that. I think that’s exactly what they’ll do. And they’ll start the pain process slower. And they’ll work on things that, frankly, don’t have a huge impact upon the U.S. economy, but still have an impact upon, in this case, China. And there’s, you know, there’s items like that. And I think that’s one of the first things they’ll do.
SPEAKER 08 :
Yeah, I mean, and so, again, I try to look at it from a stock market perspective and analyze the data and And that’s the way I see it, and I can see it going down. And again, I would be more worried about the economic growth outlook. If we slapped on really high tariffs really quickly, then I’d be worried about inflation. You know, I don’t think I think people would just stop buying stuff if prices really went up, shot up.
SPEAKER 19 :
Well, I think it’s going to happen as well. Get your opinion on this. If Trump, which I believe he’ll do one of his first executive orders, is to reverse some of the things that are in the current administration right now, having to do with energy, green energy and so on. If, you know, he gets things rolling along and all of a sudden, you know, I didn’t look at the price of oil today. You probably know it off the top of your head. I can look really quick here. It would be 80 bucks a barrel right now. So we’re 80, low 80s right now.
SPEAKER 04 :
80, 50, $81, something like that.
SPEAKER 19 :
So if all of a sudden, you know, a week from now, because of Trump’s executive orders and just his rhetoric and some of the things he talks about with energy and so on, don’t be shocked. And I wouldn’t short this, by the way, but don’t be shocked if you don’t see WTI crude about $10 a barrel less a week from now. And I don’t think I’m exaggerating when I say that.
SPEAKER 08 :
No, I think you’re right. I mean, I think ideally, you know, you always want to try to find that price where, yeah, you know, you think, well, man, if prices are really high, people are making profits. Well, you have to remember, too, the higher prices go, the less people might be inclined to buy oil. And they might cut back on trips.
SPEAKER 19 :
Well, and really quick, my point with some of what might happen with some of the tariffs I believe will also be offset where if we get energy prices down and people aren’t spending as much money to heat their home and drive their car and so on, well, it’s all a wash at the end of the day, meaning that, yeah, you might be paying a little bit more for that whatever item that you have to get that comes from China. versus what you just put in a gallon of gas, at the end of the day, it’s offset. In fact, as you know, Scott, we spend a lot more money on energy and fuel and groceries and so on, which has a direct correlation to energy prices. We spend a lot more on that than we do the goods from China.
SPEAKER 08 :
Yeah, that’s right. And so going back to the CPI from that angle as well, so if CPI starts to run, so the last three months, we’ve seen that six-month average. And again, I bring that up because that’s more forward-looking. That’s been running around 0.8%, 0.9% on an annualized basis. So if we had that, and let’s say the CBO’s worst-case estimate of Trump putting 60% tariffs on China and 10% or 20% on the rest of the world really does jack up inflation for a full percentage point, we would still be at 1.9%, which is, again, below the Fed’s 2% target. So I don’t think that’s going to happen. As a matter of fact, I was reading a report recently. Another report from FactSet earlier today, and they love to analyze data, too, and they were pointing to the last time we had these trade tariffs put in place. They did not create a run in inflation like some people are worrying about. Right.
SPEAKER 19 :
Well, and again, if you get the flip side of that, like we’re talking about, in relation to the other side of the aisle, energy-wise, then that offsets it.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yes. Am I right? That’s right.
SPEAKER 19 :
And I think that’s why, you know, in the past, even when some of those things might have happened, the offset, and again, you know more about this than I do, Scott, as far as a direct correlation, the volume from one side to the other. But I got to believe that, and correct me if I’m wrong, but what we do on the energy side and what we’re buying on a daily basis versus what the average consumer is buying from China, I got to believe that’s, is it 10 to 1?
SPEAKER 08 :
You know, that I do not know. That’s a great thing. I could try to look that up and find out, and maybe I could throw that out to you next time or send you an email.
SPEAKER 19 :
It’d be nice to know because, I mean, everybody talks about China, China, China, China, China. Your cost of goods are going to go up. Your cost of goods are going to go up. It’s like, okay, well, I get that. And some things we do get from China and some of our electronics and things along those lines and some of the knickknacks and Frankly, Scott, crap that we buy at times, whether you need it or not. Yeah, probably coming from China says made in China. But the stuff that we actually need to survive, frankly, Scott, doesn’t come from China.
SPEAKER 08 :
Yeah, yeah, we can definitely. I mean, we’re buying less. from China these days than we were before because of everything that happened in the past. Now, I mean, I’m just looking. We, by 2022, U.S. consumer spent a total of $11.4 trillion. I can’t find the number from China. But, yeah, we consume roughly 19 million barrels of oil daily. That’s right. I knew that. About 20.
SPEAKER 19 :
It runs between 19 and 20 a day is what we do daily. That’s correct.
SPEAKER 08 :
Yeah, so at $80, I mean, that’s what, like, is that $1.5 trillion a day or maybe $150? That’s a big number.
SPEAKER 19 :
It’s a huge number to your point.
SPEAKER 08 :
Yeah, and that would – I’ve got to think that you’re probably right. I’ll try to find out the ratio for you.
SPEAKER 19 :
And the only reason I say that is just common sense would say, okay, most people go to the pump at least once a week. Most people are buying groceries, of course, once a week. They’re heating their homes daily, even though they’re writing the check once a month. They’re buying that on a daily basis. So the reality is those goods, Scott, the average American is buying on a daily basis. And I guarantee you they’re not buying something from China on a daily basis.
SPEAKER 08 :
That’s very possible.
SPEAKER 19 :
Yeah, that’s all I’m saying. And again, I don’t know what those numbers are. And by the way, isn’t it ironic that we don’t ever hear anybody anywhere ever talking about what you and I are talking about? Because that’s not a scare tactic if you and I talk the way we’re talking.
SPEAKER 08 :
No, it’s not. If it’s not fearful, it doesn’t sell well.
SPEAKER 19 :
If we put this into relation to somebody out there driving around right now listening, saying, wait a minute, yeah, we might have a little bit of upside cost-wise when it comes to China, but I can lower everything else on this other side of the equation. That person driving is thinking, oh, okay, so that… whatever I just bought that has a Made in China sticker on it. Oh, I might have to pay a little bit more money for that, but when I fill up my gas tank, I won’t. Okay, I’m good with that.
SPEAKER 08 :
Yeah, if I made 50 cents here and lost 45 cents there, and I’m netting out 5 cents.
SPEAKER 19 :
Yeah, and the reality, Scott, is we don’t ever talk that way, and the press never talks that way, because what I just said makes sense and makes it a lot less scary. That’s correct. You’re not going to hear that, by the way, other than from you and I. Again, sorry to laugh, but yeah, it’s sadly true. And even Wall Street isn’t going to talk that way because all they look at is, as I’ve said before, because the globalists and so on, you know, terrorists are bad, terrorists are bad, terrorists are bad. That’s all you’re going to hear. I really don’t think Donald Trump is going to do anything… that would upset the apple cart long term for the economy, where there might be a short dip here or there after something that he does. Yeah, that I could see. But he knows best. He knows what the economy needs to grow. And at the end of the day, he’s going to do things to feed that, not harm it.
SPEAKER 08 :
Yeah, I mean, I think people forget. They get so caught up in some of the Nonsense sometimes. What they really forget is Trump really does have the U.S. economy’s best interests at heart. And if you’re an investor, he has said multiple times that he views how the stock market performs as a statement on his job as president.
SPEAKER 19 :
That’s right.
SPEAKER 08 :
So the last thing he’s going to want is to see the stock market crater under his watch. That’s right.
SPEAKER 19 :
And by the way, he’s not being left in ruins. really good position. This administration is trying to do everything possible they can to leave him in a poor position. So I think you’re going to see some things really, Scott, because of that right out of the shoot next Tuesday, you’re going to see some things be written right off the bat to help right the ship because he knows he has to.
SPEAKER 08 :
Yeah, and something else I would tell people that average investors may not think about is, so there’s a thing on Wall Street that’s saying it’s called buy the rumor, sell the news. Like, you think this is going to happen. And there’s also on the flip side of that is you sell the rumor and buy the news. In other words, like if you’re a short seller, you think the market’s peaking, you can say, oh, my God, Trump’s going to do all these bad things, blah, blah, blah, and you short stocks. And right now hedge funds are record short technology stocks. to drive these stocks down, but guess what? To your point, once Trump gets into office and he starts to enact some of these policies, all of a sudden the uncertainty of what’s going to happen starts to disappear. That’s right. And then they get the details, and then once they get the details, again, be like, okay, well, that’s not that bad. That’s not that bad. That’s right. Absolutely. You can put numbers around them, and then that’s why. And I think that’s starting to happen right now because the inauguration is Monday. That’s right. And so people are starting to say, okay, well, maybe it won’t be as bad.
SPEAKER 19 :
Scott, how do folks get a hold of you, sir?
SPEAKER 08 :
Sure. See Scott Garlis on LinkedIn or Twitter. And, again, I love the S&P 500 right here. You can buy the SPY as the ETF. Basically, I think stocks are going to have a great run.
SPEAKER 19 :
Okay. We’ll talk next Wednesday, and we’ll have a day under our belt with Donald Trump at that point. That’s right. John, thanks so much for your time. You bet, man. Appreciate you very much. Have a great night. Fort Lauderdale Mortgage, 720-895-0500.
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SPEAKER 07 :
It’s time to leave your safe space. This is Rush to Reason on KLZ 560.
SPEAKER 19 :
All right, that’s going to be about it for today. Appreciate you all listening. All the text messages as well. Thank you so much for that. The National Crawford Roundtable, of course, is next. You’ll hear that between 6 and 7 p.m. And then tomorrow, don’t forget, 3 o’clock, I’ve got confirmation Dr. Kelly Victory and Steve House will both be with us. As always, we’ve got great things. to discuss. And then Elizabeth Mitchell, she’s been on with us before. She’s going to be joining us tomorrow from the Daily Signal. And then Kurt Rogers in hour number three. If you’ve got specific mortgage slash house questions, please give me a text message. I’ll get those answered by Kurt tomorrow in the five o’clock hour as well. Guys, be safe. This is Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560.
