In today’s engaging episode, host John Rush sits down with America’s Money Answer Man, Jordan Goodman, to discuss the realities of global trading. From understanding currency manipulation to tackling non-tariff barriers and the hidden truths behind pricing in the luxury market, this episode offers listeners a deep dive into the often-concealed world of international trade economics. Tune in to discover how these factors are influencing the markets and impacting consumers globally.
SPEAKER 12 :
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SPEAKER 13 :
My advice to you is to do what your parents did!
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Are you crazy? Am I? Or am I so sane that you just blew your mind?
SPEAKER 03 :
It’s Rush to Reason with your host, John Rush, presented by Cub Creek Heating and Air Conditioning.
SPEAKER 11 :
All right, happy Tuesday, everybody. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. Myself, Andy Pate, Charlie Grimes, and how’s Andy today? Andy is doing well, sir. It’s a nice day, a break in between storms. It’s always a happy day when I get to talk to Jordan Goodman. There we go, which he’s joining us now. Jordan Goodman, America’s Money Answer Man. Hello, Jordan. How are you?
SPEAKER 09 :
Great to be with you both again.
SPEAKER 11 :
And what is the weather back east like?
SPEAKER 09 :
It’s quite nice, actually. It’s 67 degrees here in North Carolina right now.
SPEAKER 11 :
We’re at 70, so we will not complain on that at all.
SPEAKER 04 :
Jordan, have you noticed that even if it’s during a terrible cold spell where it’s sub-temperature, sub-zero, and all that, when you call in here, right where you live, it becomes 70 degrees. Have you noticed this?
SPEAKER 09 :
I have noticed that, yes.
SPEAKER 04 :
It’s beautiful, isn’t it?
SPEAKER 09 :
Love nature.
SPEAKER 04 :
Yeah. We bring that to you. Go ahead, John.
SPEAKER 11 :
No, we had weather past weekend, got weather coming in again this next weekend, but that time of the year for us in Colorado and Jordan, in the meantime, I should say, or in the midweek here, we’ve got some nice weather that we’ll take. And, you know, weather is the weather. You can’t change it anyways. It is what it is.
SPEAKER 09 :
Exactly. Exactly. But the world is changing in a major way. I mean, since we last spoke a month ago, We’ve had major changes in the whole tariff situation, and things are getting pretty tense on both directions, what we’re doing to China, what China’s doing to us. All these countries coming in wanting to negotiate a deal. I think last I heard there’s 130 countries that have come in to Washington wanting to make a deal. So it’s a dramatic difference from where we were a month ago.
SPEAKER 11 :
Yeah, no, I’m sure it is. I mean, I have this conversation with a lot of individuals, some family members and so on, and some agree with me, some disagree, and that’s okay. Sometimes you just have to agree to disagree on some of this. And there’s a lot of folks that say, you know, Trump’s waffling, he’s doing this, he’s doing that. I don’t think so, Jordan. I think the pause has come because of what you just said a moment ago when you’ve got that many countries wanting to come to the table and get it done. You can’t do that in one day or two days. You’re going to have to take some time to get that done and meet with each country and figure out what your deal is going to be at the end of the day. And did he know that going into it? Yeah, I think he did.
SPEAKER 09 :
Even 90 days. I mean, normally a trade agreement could take a year and a half with one country. Never mind doing 130 in 90 days.
SPEAKER 11 :
And no offense, Jordan, those are old days. Nothing in the world should take that long to get put together. You could sit down and get a trade deal done with each country, honestly, if I was running it, in a day, and go to the next one. Next.
SPEAKER 09 :
For example, the USMCA, when we did China and Canada… That took about 15 months.
SPEAKER 11 :
Yeah, too long. Too much negotiation, too much nonsense going back and forth. Granted, there’s a lot that goes on between those particular countries and us. But again, Jordan, at the end of the day, we dwarf them when it’s all said and done. You lay out on the front side a template of what we’re going to do for each country and start working through it. And if I were in charge, this is exactly how I would do it. And you start negotiating on some of what they consider to be non-negotiables, and off you go. It shouldn’t be that complicated to make this happen. We make this far too hard.
SPEAKER 09 :
In theory, if this works out well, lots of countries will drop their tariffs to zero, and we will drop our tariffs to zero, and maybe they’ll even stop some of their non-tariff barriers, and world trade will explode in a very positive way. That would be the best of all.
SPEAKER 11 :
I agree.
SPEAKER 09 :
I don’t think that’s going to happen with China.
SPEAKER 11 :
No, no, and that’s a whole other… I was going to… I’m going to get to that one in a minute, because let’s talk about all the other countries, because there’s a lot of other countries, you know, to your point, that have come to the table and get some deals done. We’ll talk about China. It’ll probably be in a moment after the break, because it’s all its own monster.
SPEAKER 09 :
Jordan? Yeah, Vietnam came to us… First. …offering 0%. Right. Now, Apple already moved a lot of its production from iPhones from China to Vietnam and India. So that’s an example… where we could increase our trade with Vietnam a lot if they cut their tariffs to zero and lots of other countries. They need us more than we need them in many cases. So we have, as Trump would say, we’ve got the cards, that’s the way he would put it.
SPEAKER 04 :
Well, Jordan, first of all, I think it’s going to be great because, look, we’ve got 100-plus nations coming to us guaranteeing pretty much that we’re going to have much better trade deals with them soon than we have had for decades. How can that be a bad thing? But here’s my question. Outside of just, well, we’re going to lower the percentage to this one, you lower it to that. Outside of the simple tariff percentage, what are some of the other things that they are negotiating? I mean, pick a country. What are some of the issues?
SPEAKER 09 :
Non-tariff barriers.
SPEAKER 04 :
And don’t even go to China yet, because that’s going to be more complex. We’ll get to that in a later segment.
SPEAKER 09 :
Here are some of the non-tariff barriers. They do extra inspections of American goods, things like that, and make it hard for things to get in. They have subsidies of their own industries in various ways. They’ve got tax policy. For example, in Europe, they have what’s called the VAT, the Value Added Tax, 19%, which we’re saying is considered taxable. uh… you know punitive about what was the but what we want them to drop uh… they’d manipulate their currencies and make their currencies later though i should be which gives them an advantage uh… just all kinds of things i do know those are much harder to change uh… then uh… just lowering the tariff rate uh… i meant to ask europe to scrap the vat system perfect i tell him you need a whole new tax system of that that’s going to be very difficult for them to supplied a lot of the other way we could do
SPEAKER 11 :
And, again, if it were me, and it’s not, but if it were me, I would have already done this. I would have already gone through and figured out, okay, who’s our top countries? Throw China off to the side, like I said a moment ago. But let’s go through the rest of the countries that are the top vendors, if you would. This is what any business would do, by the way. Who’s our top vendors? Who are we buying the most from? Let’s get our deals done with them first. And no offense, Jordan, if you get all the way down the list and you’re down to – And no offense if at the end of the day there’s not a lot going back and forth besides cars. You could literally just say, okay, Germany, pound sand. Off we go.
SPEAKER 09 :
Well, I mean, the big one, if we could get Canada and Mexico done first… That would be good, because those are our two biggest partners, and we’re so integrated with them in so many different ways.
SPEAKER 11 :
The only thing that needs to be talked about on the end of things with Mexico, which I’ve had conversations even with folks that still have family and other members that are down there and even working for some of the companies that will be affected by all of this, the one thing we’ve got to be careful of with Mexico that I think we really need to watch is the amount of China goods that are being passed through Mexico to avoid some of the things that, frankly, China needs to be paying for.
SPEAKER 09 :
Right, trans-shipped, as I call it. That’s right. But, I mean, I think we’re aware of that, and we’ll try to stop that from happening. But, yes, that’s a way that China tries to get around whatever restrictions by going through there. So if we can get those two done, that would really help a lot, because I just think it’s unrealistic to think that the car companies are going to move the huge plants they’ve built in both Mexico and Canada in the last few decades to Michigan or something. It’s just not going to happen. It would be better if we could keep the existing infrastructure somehow and lower tariffs and have really good trade because, I mean, it helps Mexico. We want Mexico and Canada to thrive because it helps us. I mean, they’re a good market for us for selling stuff to them as well.
SPEAKER 04 :
I think those will actually work out pretty well. But, you know, we talk a lot about currency manipulation. However, we don’t describe it. Jordan, could you describe for people, for the listeners, what does that actually mean when, say, China manipulates their currency?
SPEAKER 09 :
So, China is the second largest economy in the world, and under normal circumstances where there would not be any manipulation, their currency would be much stronger than it is. They do things to depress their currency, which means when they export to us, their goods are cheaper. The dollar is stronger, our goods are more expensive when we sell to them. So, by manipulating their currencies lower, they get a price advantage that’s really kind of manipulation.
SPEAKER 11 :
And some people think, well, why would you want your currency to be lower? Because your exports become cheaper for other countries. That’s why.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yeah, that’s a major factor for China. I mean, we’re uncompetitive with China in many, many areas. And there’s many reasons, but the cheap currency is certainly a part of it. They’re able to export all kinds of cheap stuff to us. The price is down, and their labor costs are like a tenth of ours, whatever it may be, and their currency manipulation. I mean, that’s a core part of their… way of employing lots of people.
SPEAKER 04 :
Well, I don’t understand. Tell me the mechanics of this, okay? Because obviously the dollar rises and falls because of a lot of factors. The yuan, I mean, how is that going to rise and fall? They simply declare it as worth less? I mean, what do they actually do?
SPEAKER 09 :
But they, for example, would buy dollars and sell more.
SPEAKER 11 :
They can inject more, take more away, those sorts of things, right, Jordan?
SPEAKER 09 :
Yeah. They can manipulate their currency. Right. I mean, we don’t really do that here. I mean, we let the dollar… Float along. Float freely.
SPEAKER 11 :
That’s right.
SPEAKER 09 :
Now, lately, the dollar’s been falling, actually, pretty sharply for various reasons. But we don’t try to manipulate the dollar the way the Chinese do. We let the markets dictate that. This is what they call the beggar-thy-neighbor strategy. I’m going to cheapen myself to allow me to export things to you cheaper, and it makes it very hard for U.S. to export into them because our goods are so much more expensive.
SPEAKER 11 :
One thing before we go to break and you can think on this and we’ll come back and talk a little bit more about it because we’ll shift gears over to China. One thing I’ve been noticing that can be interesting to see how this all shakes out, because what China has in a way done to kind of counter these terrorists and agree with them or disagree with them. And this is where it gets a little eye opening for, I think, a lot of individuals, a lot of social media outlets. A lot of folks now that are even on, you know, Chinese companies and so on, folks that are actually the factory for, say, you know, XYZ shoe or XYZ shirt or XYZ pair of pants or XYZ purse or whatever it happens to be. And there’s these companies now, Jordan, on social media talking about what the actual cost is. to make some of these items are in other words how badly we’re getting ripped off in america by buying these things from say nike and adidas and places along those lines i mean it’s really showing a lot of the the if you would markup that’s happening in in the value i mean not or the lack of value i guess you could say in some areas and that’s going to be interesting to see how some of the companies that are now going to have to reel back in from that and determine, okay, wait a minute, I’ve now got my supplier, my vendor, is out there now publicizing what my cost is on these items. That’s never happened before, by the way.
SPEAKER 09 :
Particularly for luxury goods like Gucci and Versace. It’s all made in China for the most part. It is. And there have been these videos. It costs us $10 to make a Gucci bag or something, and they sell it at Nordstrom for $700 or something like that. That’s right. It’s been quite interesting, actually.
SPEAKER 11 :
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SPEAKER 11 :
Live and local, back to Rush to Reason. All right, Jordan. One thing that I want to go back to when it comes to China and some of what I was talking about before that and where I was going with this is everybody talks terrorist inflation, terrorist inflation, terrorist inflation, unless you start factoring in some of the things that I’m talking about to where people, the customer now starts realizing, wait a minute, you mean I’ve been paying $150 for a pair of tennis shoes that literally cost $10 to make? I mean, at the end of the day, Jordan, I think you’re going to see some backlash along these lines, and you actually might see some prices come down, even with 125% tariffs. Let’s say that tennis shoe goes from 10 to 20. Well, who cares? At the end of the day, it’s still a far cry from 150.
SPEAKER 09 :
Right. In fact, some of the Chinese merchants you see online are selling directly to Americans now.
SPEAKER 11 :
That’s right. They will literally, for all of you listening, they will literally let you decide what you want, size, color, you name it. If you want to buy a dozen of them, for that matter, you can do whatever you want to do, and they’ll pack them up and send it right to your door.
SPEAKER 09 :
Exactly. I saw one guy online was selling 20 laundry, whatever those things are. Bonds. Five cents a piece. Packages. For $1. Yeah. For 20 of them.
SPEAKER 11 :
Yeah, $0.20 a piece, roughly, where I think right now the average person is paying $2 or $3 a piece for those. Right. So my point with that, Jordan, is when you start now, and again, I don’t know if this is part of Trump’s plan or not, or if this is just a byproduct of what’s going on, but when you’ve now got literally lots of industries where a lot of this product is not made in the U.S., it’s been made someplace else, they’ve farmed it out, and by the way, farmed it out, cut their costs way down, and still jacked the price up on the Americans. And, again, I’m not one to go say everybody’s corporate greed and so on and so forth. I get it. There’s a cost of doing business. But at some point, the customer’s going to look at that and say, geez, guys, you’re telling me that I’m now buying this Tide Pod from my local store for, you know, a buck apiece when literally it’s costing you, you know, five cents.
SPEAKER 09 :
That’s exactly right. Yeah, it’s been interesting. You never know what’s going to come out of these things, but that has been interesting. I get a lot of these online videos making the same point, and having links. To Chinese people, you can order your Tide Pods directly from them.
SPEAKER 11 :
And literally, for all of you listening, as you know, Jordan, because I’ve seen the same thing. I’ve had some listeners send me things. I’ve done some research on my own and looked up some things and so on. I mean, it is literally everything from designer belts, jackets, shoes, pants, purses, watches. I mean, you name it, all the way to hair care products and makeup and on down the line we go. I mean, literally, Jordan, the list is endless.
SPEAKER 09 :
And this is stuff that they make it. They’ll even take it and put a made-in-France label or something to it. Louis Vuitton bag. Correct. In fact, it was made in China.
SPEAKER 11 :
In Italy, wherever. Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely.
SPEAKER 09 :
That’s a pretty expensive label. All kinds of things are being uncovered here.
SPEAKER 11 :
Well, and my point with this is… You know, not that I want every industry out there to have to say what their cost of goods are. And I get it. Even with the cost of goods, you’ve got other things that go on top of that. You’ve got, you know, once that product arrives, you’ve still got to handle it. You’ve got to, you know, you’ve got a marketing cost and a lot of other things that come into play in that. So, I understand that you can’t just sell that shoe for what your cost is, but as a business consultant and somebody that actually teaches people how to make money on these things, I can tell you that paying $10 and selling it for $150 is a great gig.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yeah, I think a lot of things are going to be uncovered and changed because of all this.
SPEAKER 11 :
My point with that is, that is deflationary, not inflationary.
SPEAKER 09 :
It is. It is. We’re taking the fluff out of these prices that people have been paying for a long time. So that would be a good thing, although it’s not good for the stock of Nike or… And, you know, Louis Vuitton, the fancy places charging all these prices.
SPEAKER 11 :
No, but I mean, I talked about this a little bit last week, and you would know the numbers better than me. But, you know, the average American, honestly, the average American, why they pay so much attention to the stock market is beyond me, because they have no money there anyways.
SPEAKER 09 :
Well, a lot of people do. Not really.
SPEAKER 11 :
Not really. When you look at the numbers of people that actually have IRAs or 401ks or things along those lines, Jordan, it’s a very small percentage of the population.
SPEAKER 09 :
But about 50% have exposure to the stock market, either through 401ks, their own portfolio, something like that. But 50% have nothing in the stock market. But it affects kind of the mood, I guess you might say. And when the stock market’s rising, people feel better, they spend more, they’re more optimistic. When the stock market’s falling, they get pessimistic, they cut back. And it’s not only the consumers, but businesses, the same thing. I mean, businesses are very confused with what’s going on right now. Is the tariff going to be on? Is it going to be off? What are my costs going to be? And they cut back. They freeze in that kind of environment. People don’t want to make long-term investments in a very uncertain environment. So that’s part of the feedback from a volatile stock market.
SPEAKER 04 :
Jordan, let’s talk about China because, I mean, we talk about how terrible the trade war is, but I would add two words to all of that for now. Okay, because obviously it can’t go on very long. China simply cannot go on without our market for an extended period of time. They really can’t. And largely because of everything you’ve taught us about their… You know, their real estate market and so forth. They’re in collapse.
SPEAKER 09 :
They’re in a weak position. I agree.
SPEAKER 04 :
They’re in a very weak position. They need us. Okay. However, we have to keep in mind, they have an entire culture that’s based on not losing face. That’s right.
SPEAKER 09 :
It’s very much psychological. Let me just go through. Yeah, go ahead. I just got a list today of the things that China has imposed on the United States in the last week or so, just to give you a sense. A hundred and twenty-five percent tariffs on U.S. goods in response to the hundred and forty-five percent tariffs on us. They’ve done various controls on U.S. companies. They call a U.S. company an unreliable entity. So that includes Calvin Klein and Illumina, Target, all kinds of other companies. They’ve done corporate probes on so-called antitrust, which really isn’t like Google. Today, they said they’re going to stop U.S.-Chinese airlines from accepting deliveries of boeing and or making a new orders for boeing claims that our biggest exporter of the major market for us uh… they have export curbs on rare earth minerals which are used all kinds of industries and they’re they’ve got much money from some of the market of rare earth minerals uh… they have uh… limited access on hollywood films the exhibit in china that’s been a big market for a hollywood film it has uh… they’ve They’ve targeted trade and services. For example, they’ve made it harder for people to go into China for travel. Chinese students have had their visas revoked. And Chinese students spend a lot of money in the U.S. on tuition and other kinds of things. China has challenged the U.S. tariffs at the World Trade Organization, and they’re saying all kinds of aggressive things all the time. So what they said today was the U.S. would be economically meaningless and would become a joke if we match these tariff increases. So they’re getting pretty aggressive.
SPEAKER 04 :
Yeah, Jordan, no one’s saying that China cannot inflict harm and pain on us in a good number of ways. Here’s the problem. They import, I mean, I’m sorry, but they export about five times as much to us. So the amount of pain that we can cause them dwarfs theirs. And also, every time they one-up, Trump can simply one-upper. And he’s holding a stronger hand.
SPEAKER 09 :
It doesn’t even matter anymore. What? At 145%. No, no, no. A lot of things are uneconomic.
SPEAKER 04 :
No, you would simply do it in some other way. I think, to me, the biggest thing that Trump is doing to them is not just that, but it’s the isolation. Okay, two weeks ago, China was not isolated from so many countries around the world. In two weeks’ time, Trump has isolated China out of the blue.
SPEAKER 09 :
If we come to agreement, as we talked about earlier, with these other 130 or so countries, and lower tariff barriers and have more trade with them, and China is still at these ridiculously high levels, yes, we would have isolated China a lot, because they’re trying. Xi Jinping is actually making a trip down to Southeast Asia and kind of, being Mr. Nice Guy to Cambodia and Vietnam and Africa. They’re courting all the places that are mad at us about the tariffs. So it’s a big competition. If we can get a deal with them and they can’t, yes, that would isolate China a lot.
SPEAKER 11 :
And then again, I always go back to the simple phrase, we are the biggest customer in the world, and these other countries know that. Believe me, China knows that as well. China just doesn’t want to ever lose any face because it’s part of their culture.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yeah, and there’s nothing to replace us, actually.
SPEAKER 11 :
The rest of the world combined doesn’t do what we do.
SPEAKER 04 :
Look, we are much more of a buyer than a producer. They are much more of a producer than a buyer. That’s right. I got news for everyone. Most of the world wants a buyer.
SPEAKER 09 :
Right. Yeah, I mean, they export about $450 billion to us every year, and we export about $145 billion to them, something like that. I mean, Boeing jets is a big one right there. If they’re not going to take Boeing jets… That’s quite a few billions of dollars just that alone.
SPEAKER 11 :
It would be, yes. No doubt, although, sorry, I’ve lost all respect for Boeing. Those guys have screwed that company up so badly that it needs a complete revamp off of what they’ve done over the past five to ten years. And I know people that work for them that would agree with me.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yeah. Well, this is going to be a big hit to Boeing. Their stock went down today. I mean, there are other places that will buy jets. There’s all kinds of retaliation going on against the U.S. as well. I mean, there’s boycotts going on against U.S. products in Mexico, in Canada, in Denmark, in all kinds of places.
SPEAKER 11 :
Yeah, and you know my answer to those guys is, have fun. Good luck. You aren’t making a pimple on our rear end when it’s all said and done. Sorry, but they’re not. I mean, it’s nice for them to say that. It’s like Greta Thunberg running around talking about the environment. At the end of the day, it might feel good, but it’s not changing a thing. Right, right.
SPEAKER 09 :
Sorry, it’s not. I’m putting my rose-colored glasses on today and hoping we have a lot of trade deals. I think we will.
SPEAKER 11 :
Oh, and I think we will. You know me, I’m pretty realistic about things, Jordan, but I think a lot of things will get worked out. China, yes, they will be the last to the table because their hand is going to have to be forced on everything that they do. And really quick, back to the jet thing really quick, because I also wanted to say this. Keep in mind that while China says we’re not buying any more Boeing, Delta’s saying we’re not buying any more Airbus.
SPEAKER 09 :
Right. So you’ve got both going on. That’s right. That’s right. Well, one of the things that’s made the world economy grow and bring people out of poverty has been world trade. And that’s contracting with all these trade wars going on all over the place. For the time. So there’s a pain to go on around the world.
SPEAKER 11 :
Yeah, for a time, and again, I think some of that will change. I think a lot of people, by the way, are also being very overreactionary and thin-skinned. I’ve got an article I’m going to talk about a little bit later today where a lot of Canadians in the U.S. are taking their second homes, and they’re selling them, and they don’t want to have anything to do with the U.S. It’s like, wah, wah, wah, wah, wah, fine. Stay where it’s cold all year long. I could care less. Have fun.
SPEAKER 09 :
And travel from Canada to the U.S. is down 70%. They’re our largest… Tourists coming in. It’s done about $20 billion a year.
SPEAKER 11 :
Yeah, I’ve got the thinnest skin of any country I’ve ever seen in my life, Jordan. Literally.
SPEAKER 04 :
I think it’s temporary.
SPEAKER 11 :
The thinnest skin ever. And I know some Canadians that just shake their head at that and think, what are you knuckleheads doing?
SPEAKER 09 :
I hope it’s temporary. I mean, we may have to go through some pain to get to a much better situation. Just right now we’re in the pain part of it.
SPEAKER 04 :
I will say this, one last thing before we go to break. I do believe there will be an aftermath of anger that will keep Canada’s travel here lower than it has been traditionally for many years.
SPEAKER 11 :
Yeah, because they’re thin-skinned, like I said. They’re mad. They’re upset. They’re going to have a stink eye against us for quite some time. And again, I know Canadians, and I know some really good ones that would agree with me on what they’re talking about with their fellow Canadian. They’re too thin-skinned. They forget this is just business, guys. It’s nothing personal. It’s business.
SPEAKER 09 :
Right, right. Well, we’ll see. It’s a big gamble, and I’m hoping that it’s going to work out for the best.
SPEAKER 11 :
Well, really quick, when it comes to housing and Canadians leaving, the way I look at that, Jordan, is it just one more house opening up for an American to buy? So really, am I upset about it? Not really.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yeah. There are big buyers like in Florida, Texas, and Arizona. Arizona. That’s right. That’s right.
SPEAKER 11 :
Yeah. And I hate to tell them this, but when they leave, and it’s already happening, as they sell, which they are, somebody’s buying it, and that’s typically an American buying it. So they’re the ones losing, not us.
SPEAKER 09 :
Right. No, I would agree with that.
SPEAKER 11 :
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SPEAKER 11 :
The best export we have is common sense. You’re listening to Rush to Reason. All right, we are back. Jordan Goodman with us, America’s Money Answer Man. Jordan, before we continue, how do folks get a hold of you?
SPEAKER 09 :
They can always email me, jordan at moneyanswers.com.
SPEAKER 11 :
And again, I want to make sure too, Jordan, that people listening and all of that, yes, I know there are some people even out there listening now that there’s going to be some pain. You said it earlier when it comes to certain things. It could be farming, it could be trucking, it could be all sorts of things that have an after effect of some of the things that we are talking about. And I’m by no means trying to minimize those individuals. On the same token, Jordan, there’s a lot of things country-wise and our debt and so on that we’ve got to get a handle on, or it’s going to come to roost on down the road, and we’re all going to be paying for it.
SPEAKER 09 :
Well, I mean, one of the big areas is the budget deficit. Now, just last week, the House barely passed this budget reconciliation by literally one vote. All the Democrats voted against it, and it was, I think, a two-vote margin, so it was basically a one-vote difference. And the Senate has passed something somewhat similar. And now the two of them have to reconcile that, which is going to be difficult, because they’ve got very big differences between the two. And then if they pass that, which they would do as a reconciliation bill, which would be just for the majority vote, they don’t need the 60 votes in the Senate you would normally get, then that is what Trump calls the big, beautiful bill. It’s got its tax cuts, it’s got spending cuts, it’s got everything in there. Now, the House side, it did $1.5 trillion in spending cuts and about half of that eight hundred billion or so is medicaid uh… the senate side had four billion intact and spending capital not even close to it i don’t know if i got it they’ve got a record file that uh… but that’s the big attacking the the devil uh… the big big bill uh… which we’ll see if we can get through it’ll be amazing to zero democratic support for anything related to that
SPEAKER 11 :
Well, and I’m going to talk about this on Thursday, so all of you listening, part of the Medicaid thing, by the way, which I don’t think most people even understand, almost half the states have expanded their Medicaid program eligibility to include couples that have a household income of almost $70,000 a year and also have access to employer-subsidized health insurance plans. The problem is they don’t do that because Medicaid for them is cheaper.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yep. And that needs to be fixed. Yes, that is true. But there’s still millions of Americans that would lose health insurance if… They cut $800 billion from Medicaid. And also, a lot of people go into nursing homes using Medicaid. I mean, that’s a huge hit to an awful lot of people. And I think there will be a lot of screaming in the streets if that happens. Something’s got to be done about the entitlement for Medicaid.
SPEAKER 11 :
Yeah, the way I’m looking at it, to your point, Jordan, is that example I just gave a moment ago, that threshold, in my opinion, is too high. If you’re a couple, you’re making around $70,000 a year, and you’ve got health insurance offered through your employer, why are you on my tax dollar Medicaid program?
SPEAKER 09 :
Right, I agree with that. They should not lower the threshold.
SPEAKER 11 :
And so there’s other things along those lines where we need to take a really hard look at that. And again, I’m not in those circles. I’m not in that world, because frankly, if I were, I wouldn’t have got to this point.
SPEAKER 04 :
Well, what if Doge… Jordan, what if Doge goes through and does a full assessment first of all, right? Because they’re right in the middle of doing their assessment and assesses, okay, it’s roughly this many people who are doing exactly what John just said. Then we have this many doing fraud. And we feel that you can cut this much. And here are where the numbers are. Here are where the bodies are buried. And actually lay it out and say, this is how much you can cut without removing anybody who needs it. and then go back to the House and Senate and say, how’s that for a midpoint?
SPEAKER 09 :
That’s not the way it’s working. No. That’s not the way it’s working. No, politicians don’t think that way. They go in and just wipe out entire departments, basically. They don’t ask for the details like that. So you could go through Social Security. They’re cutting thousands of people, so they’re closing a lot of Social Security offices and not allowing phone anymore. uh… i could go through a whole series of different agencies that they’re just cleaning out in many cases they’re not asking what i really need what we don’t need they’re just saying goodbye to everybody you know closing our entire agencies like u f a i d a whole bunch of other things we could go through. So it’s a nice idea, Andy, but that’s not what they’re doing.
SPEAKER 04 :
USAID, I think, could go away. I think the little that is still good in USAID, I think… The 10th is probably good? Well, I don’t know the amount, but I think it can be farmed out to other agencies. I think USAID… Look, you know, Jordan, it gets to a point where… Where and I don’t care if it’s from the right or from the left, but it gets to a point where a department is so unbelievably hyper politicized. that it becomes unsalvageable. And I believe in the case of something like USAID, we are 12 leagues beyond unsalvageable. It can’t be salvaged. It needs to be… No, it’s become a slush fund for politicians. It is a pure slush fund almost entirely for the left. And it’s like, okay, look, let’s get rid of it and replace… Well, what about the good things they do? Great, tell us. What are those? What are the good things they do? We’ll do those through another avenue.
SPEAKER 09 :
In theory, I mean, supposedly the State Department’s going to take over some of these things. But out there in the real world, a lot of people who are depending on them for medicine and food are not getting it, and they’re spreading disease in Africa and dying of starvation and all kinds of things.
SPEAKER 04 :
So people are dying right now because of this? Right now?
SPEAKER 09 :
Because of this? Yeah. because people are not getting the food that they need, or they’re dying of diseases. That’s correct.
SPEAKER 04 :
I don’t know any food shipments that were necessary and have discontinued.
SPEAKER 11 :
I’ve used this example before, Jordan. I’ve been to lots of places in Africa. I have seen where the grain bags actually go. I know whose hands they actually end up in, and frankly, it’s not the people that need them. It typically goes to government, who then launder that money back to themselves, or warlords. Very, very, very little of that actually goes to the people to feed them. Very little.
SPEAKER 04 :
We’ll see. I’ve been on the ground and watched it myself. I’ve seen it. Yeah, but now we’re going to have hungry warlords. I mean, that’s terrible.
SPEAKER 11 :
That’s true. What do you do if you’re hungry? We’re alert. Okay, so before we lose you today, Jordan, because a lot of people I know are worried about this and are thinking about this, and what do we do? And they watch the news, which, frankly, turn the TV off, you’ll be in a lot better shape. But for those that are watching the news and worried about what’s coming around the corner, what are things they should be doing money-wise to try to thwart some of this?
SPEAKER 09 :
Well, there are some safe havens. The first one would be money market funds. We’re yielding about 4.5%. And your principal is pretty much safe. You could do even a little extra belt and suspenders. It would be like a treasury or federal government-only money market fund. So that’s a safe place. And there’s trillions. I think it’s up to about $7.5 trillion has gone to money market funds. So that’s a safe haven. A second one is gold. Gold even went up again today. It’s up to about $3,225 an ounce, something like that. All this turmoil in the world. has caused people to want to go into gold. I think that’s going to go much higher. You can buy physical gold. You can buy gold mining shares. You could buy gold exchange-traded funds like a GLD. I think gold’s got much further to go.
SPEAKER 04 :
Jordan, one second before you run on with that. Right now, there’s a lot of turmoil. Gold is up. Gold goes up with turmoil. What happens when the turmoil decreases over the next 90 days?
SPEAKER 09 :
I think there’s such tremendous demand for gold, I don’t think gold is going to go down in a significant way.
SPEAKER 04 :
I agree. I just wanted to ask you, because I really didn’t know. Because, okay, once the turmoil starts to decline, will gold decline?
SPEAKER 09 :
I don’t think it will, but you would know better than I. Yeah, it’s being driven by other factors as well. As I mentioned, the U.S. dollar is coming down, so people want to put money into gold. A lot of central banks around the world are stockpiling gold as well. So that’s considered a safe haven. And then treasury bonds are the other ones, which are longer-term, like 10- to 30-year bonds. Those are yielding about 4.5% these days. So those are some of the kind of safe havens. What’s been interesting is, in the last year or so, Bitcoin has been considered a kind of alternative safe haven like gold. It has not performed that way this time. It’s gotten up to about $106,000 for Bitcoin. Now it’s about $84,000, something like that. So… It’s interesting. People say, oh, that’s a good, safe place to put your money is Bitcoin.
SPEAKER 11 :
No, it’s not.
SPEAKER 09 :
That has not worked out this time.
SPEAKER 11 :
Well, you know my feelings on crypto in general, and I have this argument with people on a regular basis. Anybody can do whatever they want to do. Put your money wherever you want to. That’s your call. Am I going to do that? No, because my feeling on Bitcoin is still its value is based upon the faith in it only. That’s it. There’s nothing else backing Bitcoin, Ethereum, any other crypto, period. It’s all based on speculation and what people think.
SPEAKER 09 :
It’s being used to some extent with transactions, but I’m dealing with a lot of wealthy people all around the world all the time, and most of them want to buy Bitcoin in large quantities, like in the millions and millions of dollars. So there’s a belief out there that this is a good place for your money long term, whether you believe it or not.
SPEAKER 11 :
I think they’re very dumb, by the way, but that’s my opinion. Yes. I wouldn’t do that if I were them, but I’m not a financial advisor, and they don’t have to listen to me, nor will they. Right. Honestly, I think your idea of gold and some of those things a moment ago, if I were somebody very wealthy and I was looking to put millions of dollars into something, it would not be crypto. It would be hard gold.
SPEAKER 09 :
No, and that’s what people are doing. There’s a big shortage of it, actually. So I mean, for the average person, you can buy a stock, GLD, which owns physical gold. You can do silver, which is SLV as well. Gold mining shares actually are leveraged to gold. So when gold prices go up, Gold mining shares go up faster because their cost of production is pretty much the same, but what they’re receiving for their gold when they sell it is much more. So their profit margins go up when gold prices go up. So those are some places you might want to take a look at.
SPEAKER 11 :
What’s the Fed going to do, do you think?
SPEAKER 09 :
I don’t think they’re going to lower rates at their May meeting. On one hand, we’ve had some decent numbers on inflation, numbers that came out last week, consumer prices growing at a 2.4% rate instead of 2.8%. Producer prices actually fell last week, 0.4%. So that was good. Not to the 2% level they’re looking for, but we’re kind of heading that direction. But I think they’re concerned about the tariffs, and the tariffs rolling their way through the economy is going to raise prices on a lot of things, and I think they’re worried about that. So in theory, they would like to lower rates, but I just think with the inflation rate, potential inflation coming from tariffs, they’re not going to do it right now.
SPEAKER 11 :
Okay. I guess we will see how that all turns out. I think they’re already behind. I think they’re making a big mistake if they don’t. A quarter point at the end of the day doesn’t really change much when it’s all said and done other than signal some confidence back into the markets. That’s really all it is. As you know, a quarter point doesn’t change anything for anybody really one way or the other other than the signal it sends.
SPEAKER 09 :
It is a signal. It is a signal. I mean, if they did lower rates at their May meeting, That would be telling you they think the economy is deteriorating pretty fast, and they want to help out with that. And in some cases, I mean, consumer conference numbers just plunged. That’s right. We’ve never seen it fall that fast, okay? Business conferences is weaker. As I said, a lot of people are just freezing, and they’re only buying the essentials, or they’re not going out to eat or traveling. You know, people, when there’s a lot of uncertainty…
SPEAKER 11 :
freeze both businesses and consumers right they stop spending because they’re not they don’t know what’s coming around the corner so they stop spending or they buy just the essentials they don’t do the extra things they don’t do the you know the vacations or buy the new rv or all the new designer clothes or whatever you know they shop at you know target and walmart and some of those places instead of the the mall and what have you and yeah those are the shifts that people make during those times right and you’ll see the numbers
SPEAKER 09 :
You’re seeing it in the numbers. So consumer confidence, it’s a soft number, but it does impact people’s behavior. I think the stock market falling is part of it. All that’s uncertain about tariffs. I mean, people are losing their jobs. A lot of these government workers are pretty high paid, and they thought they had a lifetime tenure. They were never going to have to worry about job security, and all of a sudden, Not only in Washington, but all over the country. I’m sure a lot of people in the Denver area are getting laid off who are federal workers as well.
SPEAKER 11 :
Which, again, I feel bad in one way, Jordan, but the private sector doesn’t get that luxury. Why should they? You don’t have that luxury. I don’t have that luxury. Why should they have that?
SPEAKER 09 :
Well, they’ve had civil service protections for a long time. Right. And it doesn’t seem to be helping at all in protecting them against getting laid off. But in their mindset, this is like a job for life, and they don’t have to worry about getting laid off. So that’s been a big surprise to a lot of federal workers.
SPEAKER 11 :
Oil, $61.33 a barrel. Your thoughts there?
SPEAKER 09 :
Well, it’s another indication of the economy weakening. Oil prices were in the low 70s. Now they’re about 60 or so. That’s the market telling you there’s going to be less demand for oil. Although it’s been interesting, OPEC has recently been increasing production. And that’s one of the reasons prices went down as well, because those countries really need a lot of money. And if the price is $60 instead of $70 or $80… They need to pump out more oil to get the same revenue. So they’re depressing their own price.
SPEAKER 11 :
That’s right. That one, Jordan, we’ve talked about that one many times in the past. I’ve never really understood that end of things from them because, yeah, to your point, it sort of defeats the purpose other than they’ve got a lot of mouths to feed.
SPEAKER 09 :
Well, and projects to build. Yeah, I mean, a lot of these countries, oil’s the only thing they’ve got. That’s right. Like Nigeria and Angola and some of these places.
SPEAKER 11 :
There is nothing else there. Even Saudi Arabia, there’s nothing else there.
SPEAKER 09 :
I mean, they’re trying to diversify in Saudi Arabia, but it’s like 90-whatever percent of their money is from oil. That’s right. And I mean, there are other things going on. We are having more electric cars. Cars are more efficient in various ways. China is using a lot less oil because of, as we talked about, the real estate depression there and just less economic activity. All those things mean less demand. Now, it’s good for American consumers. You’re seeing gasoline now even in the high $2 range or something like that. That’s been a boon to U.S. consumers.
SPEAKER 11 :
Yeah, and that will drive some of the prices down. And the one thing, too, that I think even news media gets wrong a lot, and this is something that nobody really thinks much about, outside of some produce and maybe certain vegetables, the majority of food that we have in America we grow on our own. And frankly, if we export less because of some of what we’re talking about with tariffs means we have more food here, meaning despite what everybody would say, including our own governor here, the grocery prices will increase. Actually, Jordan, it’s the opposite. No, they won’t.
SPEAKER 09 :
Well, the problem with fruits and vegetables is getting the workers to pick them because they’re afraid of going out in the field and getting picked up by ice. I mean, you hear that from farmers, that they can’t find any way to pick the fruits and vegetables. So they’re growing it, but they can’t get it from the field. because there’s nobody who’s willing to get picked up by ICE.
SPEAKER 11 :
Yeah, and like I said, other than fruits and vegetables, which you might see some price increases in those areas, which I do health and wellness on Wednesdays, and yes, we should be eating those, and yes, they’re good for us and so on, but the reality, Jordan, is you don’t have to have those to live on a daily basis. Everything else we create in this country, you can literally live off of, and those prices are going to come down.
SPEAKER 09 :
The other area is grains. I mean, we produce far, far more in soybeans and corn and wheat than we can potentially consume.
SPEAKER 11 :
That’s right.
SPEAKER 09 :
China is a big, big market for us. And even the 10% minimum tariff makes a lot of our stuff uncompetitive, never mind the 145%. So China’s buying now from Brazil, Canada, Argentina, other places, and our farmers are going to get hurt very badly by this.
SPEAKER 11 :
Yeah, because that food will stay internal, not go external. We can talk more about that next month and kind of see how things go. One last time, Jordan, how do folks find you?
SPEAKER 09 :
They can always email me, jordan at moneyanswers.com.
SPEAKER 11 :
It’s always fast, Jordan. Appreciate you very much.
SPEAKER 09 :
Very good. Thanks so much.
SPEAKER 11 :
You’ve had a great night. And up next, Golden Eagle Financial. Speaking of all of this, and you want to know what to do with your money, and you need somebody to sit across from and find out exactly what you need to do next, that is Al Smith, Golden Eagle Financial. Talk to him today. Find him at klzradio.com.
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SPEAKER 11 :
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SPEAKER 11 :
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SPEAKER 11 :
All right, we’ve got a minute left. Question of the day today. What term describes a prolonged period of deflation and stagnation as seen in Japan during the 1990s? The lost decade is the answer to yesterday’s impossible question. Today’s impossible question, answer this on our Facebook page. Which philosopher wrote being and time? Which philosopher wrote being and time? Any ideas, Charlie? Any ideas?
SPEAKER 04 :
I don’t know, Kant. I have no clue.
SPEAKER 11 :
Charlie says no, he doesn’t know either. Guys, this is always above my pay grade, so I have the foggiest idea. I’m definitely not some philosopher.
SPEAKER 04 :
Yeah.
SPEAKER 11 :
Other than when it comes to interest rates in the economy and things like that. Jordan and I have had some good conversations over the years along those lines, by the way. Some good debate.
SPEAKER 04 :
Along which lines?
SPEAKER 11 :
Of the economy and interest rates and what the Fed should do and not do and all of that. It’s been fun.
SPEAKER 13 :
Yeah, it’s always fun.
SPEAKER 11 :
I mean, I know there’s a lot of folks that don’t like Jordan, but I do. I love Jordan. Oh, I love Jordan. We have a great camaraderie and have a lot of conversation. We’ve had him on here for many, many years now, and we will continue to do so. All right, hour number two is next. Don’t go anywhere. Myself and Andy, this is Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560.
SPEAKER 1 :
I’m a rich guy.
