Explore the dynamic world of stock markets with professional money manager Bill Gunderson in another engaging episode of the Best Stocks Now Show. The episode highlights Oracle’s groundbreaking performance and its implications for tech stocks across the board. Additionally, get insights into the global economic outlook, including NATO’s recent actions and the potential effects of Trump’s proposed tariffs.
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He’s been seen on CNBC, the Fox News Channel, and the Fox Business Channel. His articles can be found on MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TheStreet.com, and many other places. He’s the author of the weekly Best Stocks Now newsletter and the inventor of the Best Stocks Now app. He’s president of Gundersen Capital Management. Here is professional money manager Bill Gundersen.
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And welcome to the Wednesday, September the 10th, live edition of the Best Stocks Now show. And we have another earnings report heard around the world this morning, which we’ll get to here in a moment. It’s one of the most impressive earnings reports I’ve ever seen. And it is driving the NASDAQ up today, 96 points. to a new all-time high at 21,975. The Dow, on the other hand, the soggy Dow is down 83 points to 45,628, but it hit a new all-time high yesterday also, as did the S&P 500, which is hitting another new all-time high today. The S&P is up 39 points, that’s 60 basis points, to 6,551. The small caps are up a third of 1% right now. The bond market is quiet. It got good news today with a pretty benign PPI report. We get the CPI report tomorrow. There are some calls now for a 50 basis point cut at the next meeting, especially after yesterday’s big downward jobs revision for the entire year 2024. I don’t know who’s doing the counting over there. Gold is hitting a new high today. $3,690 closes in on $3,700. Oil is flat and Bitcoin right now. It’s up to $1,629,000 to $114,000. So welcome to today’s Best Stocks Now show with professional money manager Bill Gunderson, President of Gunderson Capital Management. a nationwide fee-based only money management firm. And I’m here with Barry Kite, our chartered financial analyst and certified financial planner. Just in case you need a little bit of planning done with your financial situation, we have a good staff here ready to help you out. Boy, I’ll tell you what, yesterday it was nebulous. nbis which excited the ai stocks of the market and tech to another new high with that tremendous uh one of the biggest sales orders i’ve ever seen for a company that’s when you get a sales order that’s bigger than your market capitalization that’s big that’s worthy of headlines but i think uh that’s being outdone today You know, Oracle is no young company. Larry Ellison is not like the newest kid on the block. But with this move today, Ellison is within reach of passing Elon Musk as the world’s richest man. This is an incredible, just an incredible move for Oracle here today. When’s the last time you saw a $900 billion company? Well, yesterday it was about $700 billion. go up 40% in one day. This is just incredible. It’s unbelievable. The analyst obviously had no clue what was brewing underneath the surface of this stock. You said yesterday it would be interesting. We didn’t know it was going to be that interesting. This is right up there with some of NVIDIA’s reports. But you just didn’t expect it from Oracle. We’re going to a very exciting place of the world here next week in Santa Clara. No, Oracle’s now in Austin, Texas, but they still have a huge presence there in the Bay Area. That’s where they started. And Larry Ellison, he’s the man of the hour today with this huge move in Oracle. Well, we hit new highs across the board once again yesterday. I don’t want to hear any whining or bellyaching about a bad market. You’re hitting new highs in the Dow. You’re hitting new highs in the S&P 500, new high in the NASDAQ today. All of our portfolios hit new highs yesterday. They’re doing very well here in 2025. It’s good to be on the right side of the street and down some of the right alleyways here where the sun is shining. Because it’s not like the entire market is participating in this. In fact, I would say the breadth of the market is fairly narrow right now. And it’s definitely favoring growth stocks somehow tied to AI for sure.
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Yeah, I mean, look at NVIDIA today is popping. You’ve got a 4% move.
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Yeah, NVIDIA today.
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In all of the power companies, I mean, G.E. Vernovo. The nuke stocks are on fire. Yeah, it’s wild.
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Well, I think when they look at Oracle and the growth in certain areas of their business, they realize, wow, it’s going to take a lot of energy, a lot of energy to power those powerful databases. And, boy, you are seeing a huge pop today in the nuke sector. And that’s where it’s at in 2025. You know, the app is a relative. It looks at the market on a relative basis. And on a relative basis, any sector could be the leading sector in the market. Any stock could be the leading stocks in the market. But this year, it just so happens that the app has been leaning in one direction for a long time here, and it’s in the direction of the nuke. The AI, the networking, the semiconductors that are caught up in all of this, the software companies that are caught up in all of this. And that’s where the action is. And on a relative basis, it’s not that I’m prejudiced against, you know, industrials and railroads and airlines and trucking stocks, etc. Sometimes they’re the leading stocks. I’ve seen that happen before. But I just go where the app tells me to go. Because on a relative basis, this continues to be the strongest area of the market.
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And they’re pulling everything up. I mean, Vertiv, look at Vertiv. Vertiv is up big time. Up double digits. Yes.
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And Vertiv, I haven’t even done the calculations on our portfolios, but I do know that our overall AUM is up 1.1% today, which is a big move. after a 1.1% move yesterday. So anyways, now, first we’ve got to do the sobering news. Just to keep things real here, NATO shoots down Russian drones over Poland. In the first direct engagement, what the heck is Putin up to? Was that a misfire? Did he overshoot or is he threatening Europe? Man, that’s a big, big deal that you can’t just overlook.
SPEAKER 06 :
Well, interesting that Trump met with the president of Poland, what, just last week, right, I think, if I’m not mistaken. It was a week or two ago.
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And those drones were shot down by NATO jets, okay? So anyways, we’ve always got to slap you with a bucket of cold water in the morning and a dose of reality. Trump wants the EU to slap India and China with 100% tariffs to squeeze Russia. Now, think of the conflict that would cause if we put 100% tariff on China. Or, well, he wants the EU to do it. Let them do it.
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Right.
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But, you know, look, Europe’s on the front lines of all of this. Poland is a European country. It’s on the border there with Ukraine, and this is a very big provocation. Maybe it was an accident. I don’t know.
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When Europe’s looked the other way, I mean, they’re still buying gas from them. They still buy stuff from Kazakhstan that they know came from Russia first. I mean, they’re a part of the problem.
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But we always start each day with the world, the global outlook, and then we drill down to individual stocks eventually. This Trump tariff thing, that’s another issue. The Supreme Court’s going to take it up in November. They’re going to fast-track, and the numbers are going up. Right now, in a brief written by Scott Besson, our Treasury Secretary, he’s citing $750 billion to $1 trillion in tariff money at stake here. if the supreme court rules these tariffs uh… illegal which i can’t imagine that happening but you know what uh… i’m not a legal scholar and uh… uh… maybe uh… it seems like tariffs have been used all throughout time uh… since since since the civil war for sure way before the civil war France is in turmoil. We’ve got to mention that. Anti-government protests erupt. Macron, you know, has pretty much lost a lot of his power over there in France. But here’s the one that has also got the market excited here today. We knew that two big inflation reports were coming this week. Well, when we come back, we’ll go over the first big one to come in. And how good was this report? Well, it lit the market up when these numbers came in. The futures were already up, but this one threw gasoline on the fire. We’ll be right back.
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Thank you.
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And welcome back here to the second quarter of today’s Best Docs Now show. August, producer inflation, that’s the PPI, unexpectedly declines in both headline and core. Now, Barry, the odds, the probability is rising. The hopes are rising. I think the market would actually be a little bit disappointed with only a 25 basis cut. Look, when you consider that they lowered the jobs creation by 900,000 for 2024. That’s just unbelievable. It tells you that the Fed is way behind the curve with interest rates, in my opinion, and that just cemented that to me yesterday. Now today you get the PPI coming in lighter than expected. Do we know what the probability is right now for a 50 basis cut, which I think is appropriate. That’s me. If I was the Fed guy, that’s what I’d do.
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I was clicking on it right now. So we’re still sitting at a 12% chance of a 50 basis point cut and an 88% chance of a 25 basis point cut.
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You know, I think after these big numbers that have come in, I think the market would be disappointed with only a quarter of a point at the meeting next week, next Wednesday.
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And the annual numbers, and here’s an interesting, this is a stat that I like, is that by the end of the year… You’ve got about a 25% chance of being, let’s see, essentially 50 basis points from where we are right now, 25% chance of that by the end of the year. 65% chance of three 25 basis point cuts by the end of the year. And there’s a camp out there with 8.5% chance of a full percent coming off of the Fed funds rate by the end of the year. So essentially, it’s telling you that 73% of the market thinks that there’s going to be at least You know, 75 basis point cut between now and the end of the year.
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Well, I think that’s going to happen myself. I think you’ll either get three 25-point cuts or maybe a 50 at this next meeting. Now, it’s helping because even though we haven’t got a rate cut yet, we’ve got the 10-year down to 4.05%. And guess what that’s doing to mortgage demand? Surges to the highest weekly level since 2022. amid lower rates. I’ve heard so many people that I know that are related in some fashion to that or associated in some fashion to that building real estate sector that have been just singing the blues. This is good news to see this big surge in demand. Now, it’s all relative. I’m sure it’s not like it was in the heyday. when rates were under 3%. But it’s the highest weekly demand since 2022 amid lower rates. The 30-year comes in at 6.49 right now compared to 6.64 last week. We need to get them under six for sure.
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And what I keep hearing is that, you know, kind of some call for potentially, you know, remember some of the old operation twist and some of the stuff you can do from whether it’s the Treasury or from the Fed’s balance sheet has gotten slimmer over time. over time and so they’ve got some capacity potentially to you know to buy some 30-year notes right or 20-year notes and actually you know try to try to bring that long end of the curve down because of course we know they control the short end of the curve in terms of the fed funds rate but you know usually the market kind of dictates that that long end of the curve but Of course, if they could, whether it’s the Treasury or whether it’s the Fed, become a buyer on that longer end, then they can actually bring rates down and have some control over it as well.
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Yes, I’d like to see some kind of incentive for new home buyers, younger home buyers, to make it possible for them to be homeowners instead of renters. Okay, the big news obviously today in individual stocks, this is just incredible. Oracle surges. Let’s see. Right now, Oracle is up almost, well, it’s 39% right now. That is wild for such a big company. I know, and it’s been around. Look, when I got into the market in the late 90s, Oracle was one of the hot stocks because of what it was doing with databases back then. And, of course, you know, in today’s world, databases are crucial. And going through those databases and sorting those databases, at the end of the day, my app is a database that is sortable. And you can apply formulas to it and get the information that you need very, very quickly. Now, the term they’re using here, and I’m sure Jeff Webster could weigh in on this, but I think I understand it. They had a massive surge in remaining performance obligations, okay? So these are contracts that they’ve signed, right? And I guess they get paid as they go. And this ballooned their remaining performance obligations absolutely ballooned, hitting $455 billion, up 359% year over year. That’s incredible. These are contracts that they’ve booked that they have yet to perform on, obviously, and collect the revenue, but this absolutely blew past expectations. When’s the last time you saw a conservative group like Jefferies, which is a Wall Street firm, raising their target price from 270 to 360? That’s an unbelievable, and where is it today?
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$335.
SPEAKER 07 :
Well, you know, how do you raise the target price the day it’s way up? I mean, it makes you look good, but it also makes you look bad.
SPEAKER 06 :
Yeah, but it’s how the contract’s structured. I mean, it’s kind of like that MBIS contract yesterday with Microsoft where it says, hey, you know, it’s a $15 billion contract. It could be worth up to $19 billion. The thing with Oracle is companies have wanted to, hey, you’ve already built this. Let’s go ahead and we’ve got this piece as almost like a part of a contract that we can get more of your services from on the back end of the contract. They’ve been exercised. I mean, their customers need the infrastructure, and they’ve already inked a lot of those things.
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It almost seems like, and we’re hearing it more and more, that the demand for AI and AI services and infrastructure is outstripping the supply right now, and these companies are just being overwhelmed. with these huge contracts. Now where this is going to show up in Oracle’s price target, and I’ll have to revisit this today, is going to be in their five-year growth rate, which right now it’s 12%. Maybe that’s the right, maybe it’s going to be 15% right now, which has a major impact on your target price. My five-year target on Oracle is about $400, which gives it 70% upside potential. But I think with this big backlog that they’re working through, I think this probably pushes Oracle up to a price target that’s 80% or more. Unless today’s big gain has already baked that into the cake. But, man, that is just a phenomenal, phenomenal happening in the tech world today. We’ll be right back. This is Bill Gunderson. Thank you for tuning in to today’s Best Stocks Now, Best Inverse Funds Now show. Now, back to the second half of the show.
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And welcome back here to the second half of today’s Best Docs Now show. Just one more little tidbit on this Oracle report. Here’s what one analyst said.
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An extraordinary thing. $332 billion in bookings in Oracle’s Q1 represents not only the biggest bookings number we’ve ever seen in software, but a fundamental shift in the business model towards data center operator, said analyst Keith Weiss. Okay, so target prices are going to go materially higher. And I think in my app, I think that the target price now, some are stubborn and they’re, you know, I slow to admit they’re wrong. I see that Morgan Stanley keeps their target price at $250. And 44. And it’s at 335 right now. They keep their equal weight rating with the $246 price target on Oracle stock. I don’t think the analyst there at Morgan Stanley wants to admit that he might have been wrong, but it sounds like most, all of them.
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Or they just haven’t, I mean, it’s one thing. Have they just not updated their spreadsheet yet? Come on.
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I don’t know what’s going on. Now, okay, with this move, Ellison’s net worth jumps $70 billion to $364 billion. Just shy of Musk, $384 billion. And who knows, by the end of the day, I mean, if this keeps up the way it’s going, I think Ellison is going to pass Elon Musk. Now, wait until Bernie Sanders gets a hold of this, man. I hear him talking all the time about, we have one guy that’s got, you know, more billions of dollars. than one-third of the population of America, something like that. I say God bless him. You know what? If somebody’s going to do that and bring all of this innovation, what do I care how much he’s worth? That’s just me. You may disagree. I don’t really care. Wells Fargo stays bullish. Betting AI will power the S&P 500 to 7,200 by the end of next year. Well, I mean, yesterday it was Wells Fargo was another one, I can’t remember who it was now, that had a $6,800 target price out. Oh, it was Goldman Sachs. Yeah, that’s what it was. Wells Fargo says, I’ll see your $6,800 and I’ll raise you to $7,200 by year-end.
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I mean, it’s just a broad – I mean, I just still can’t get over the fact that it’s just such a broad move across the board of AI at the moment. I mean, NVIDIA up over 4%. The nuclear stocks. Yeah, nuclear stocks are going nuclear today. You’ve got Palantir up 3%. I even saw CoreWeave, I think, was up 4% earlier. You’ve got GE, Renova. Constellation Energy up over 5%. Vistra, Talon. Cameco up over 4.5%. It’s incredible, and that’s where we’re parked.
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I mean, that’s where the fishing grounds are this year. I remember one time. I don’t know. I didn’t read the fishing reports, and I went out like 70 miles in San Diego. That’s a lot of diesel gas. This Norwegian is counting every gallon. It was like $6 a gallon back then. And there were no boats and no fish on the area I chose to go to. And I got on the radio, did a little talk, and he goes, what are you doing way out there? The fish are 10 miles off La Jolla. I was totally in the wrong fishing grounds. I had totally blown it. Trolled all the way back. No, I zoomed all the way back and was way too late for the bite. Missed it entirely. I mean, that’s the way it is in the stock market. If you’re not parked in that right area, and they do move, I mean, it’s not like it doesn’t move from day to day, but right now, obviously, centered in that AI 10 miles off San Jose, I guess, in the ocean there is where it’s happening. So anyways… $7,200 Wells Fargo is their target price for the S&P 500 and they’re using earnings estimates that are a little on the low side so they must be using a multiple a little on the high side They see $270 in earnings this year, which is pretty much the consensus. This compares to $60, by the way, back in 2009. They see $300 next year, a little on the low side with the consensus, and they see $335 in 2027. That’s what’s driving the bus. Just like the fish follow the bait and the food, where the food is, you’ll find the little fish. That’s where the big fish are. And the stock market follows earnings. And here’s what they say about the multiple. With the S&P 500 trading at 22x, we expect future returns to be more driven by earnings than by multiples. In fact, the market has become increasingly earnings-driven. Well, where have you heard that before? Over the past 12 months, two-thirds of the S&P 500’s return has been driven by forward EPS growth. Where have you heard that before? I said it’s not only earnings, more importantly, it’s future earnings and those expectations. And that’s why I put so much weight on those analyst estimates for the S&P 500 on a weekly basis. Now, this same analyst says back in 22 and 2023, it was driven by the multiple. And I’ll tell you why that is. Because we were in a rising interest rate environment. And that points the finger at multiples and makes multiples that much more important. Now we’re in a falling interest rate environment. And the key to the market now is, again, its earnings. And the multiple is still important, however. but it takes a backseat in a falling interest rate environment, and it becomes paramount. Just remember this for the future. If I’m not around 30 years from now and you see interest rates start to go higher, get out of those long-term bonds. Get out of long-term stocks because the multiple is going to shrink. Okay, what else do we have here? Novo Nordisk that cut 9,000 jobs. That’s huge in a $1.25 billion overhaul. They have a new CEO. Apparently, you know, Lilly is eating their lunch somehow, or people aren’t eating their lunch anymore with, you know, the shot in them, the Zepp-bound shot, but no bone or disc. That’s surprising that they’re trimming their staff so much.
SPEAKER 06 :
Well, they said they’re going to use the money. Interesting they said they’re going to use the money they save, I think, for R&D and I guess to try to keep up with Lilly.
SPEAKER 07 :
Well, it sounds like Lilly has got the pill, and I heard the CEO on TV in an interview say, He wants the FDA to fast track it, which I think they will because there’s such health benefits to this weight loss craze that’s taking place. And it’ll bring down costs in terms of weight. Because now, I mean, they ship that stuff like they would Omaha steaks, right? I mean, in a package, in a styrofoam thing with dry ice in their ice bag. That’s got to be expensive. It’s like the seized chocolate. Yeah, when we send seized chocolates to our clients, I think they’re packed in ice and whatnot, just in case it’s hot in Texas. Taiwan semiconductors August sales rise 34% as AI demand stays strong. There’s another hot fishing spot. That stock broke out and was hitting new highs yesterday. As China continues to buzz it with their high-speed submarines and their jets, that’s the risk you have with Taiwan’s semiconductor. But in the meantime, it continues to hit new all-time highs. And that’s one of the, being in the right place at the right time, as Dr. John would say, you don’t want to be as in the right place, but it must have been the wrong time. That’s why I play that song during the show, just to remind you how important it is to not be 70 miles offshore fishing in a desert where there’s no tuna to be found when they’re 10 miles off La Jolla. What was I thinking? Elon Musk, Neuralink says globally 12 people now, 12 people have that chip in their brain. I’m not hearing any results of how it’s working, but you know, God bless him if he can solve problems. Help people that are paralyzed for life. And it’s that profit incentive. Without the profit incentive, therein lies one of the keys to capitalism. The profit incentive drives innovation. and that’s why you see so much innovation coming out of the good old U.S. of A. Okay, when we come back, we’ve got an update, kind of an interesting one on Uber and a new IPO that’s queued up that could be a big one, and our drone stock has reported earnings today. We’ll be right back.
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This is…
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And welcome back here to the final segment of today’s Best Docs Now show on this Wednesday.
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September 10th, and a week from today, Barry will be sitting in consultations with folks in the Bay Area. Full day on Tuesday, one-hour appointments. A full day on Wednesday, one-hour appointments. Thursday, a full day almost, I think. I have to check with Edie today. Last time I looked, it was 60% or 70% filled up, so you might still be able to get an appointment with us on Thursday. We start at 7 a.m. We go to 7 p.m. if necessary. I figure if I’m going all the way across the country, I’m going to make myself available to as many people as I possibly can. And, of course, Tuesday night, a week from yesterday. I’ll be in front of a nice group of folks there at the Marriott in Santa Clara and talking about the characteristics of best stocks now and the current state of the market, lots of examples of best stocks now. Whatever is important at the time. There’s obviously plenty to talk about right now in the markets. It’s quite exciting out there right now. So I’m really looking forward to that trip. And again, if you would like to meet with us while we’re there, 855-611-BEST. 855-611-BEST. And if you’d like to attend the workshop at 7 p.m., on tuesday uh… the seven sixteenth september sixteenth uh… eight five five six eleven best and of course the four-week trial i mean it all of these stocks i’ve sent out uh… alerts uh… whenever we buy something whether it’s nebulous uh… several uh… months ago or uh… whether it was what we bought yesterday adding a new position to our premier growth portfolio yesterday. You get those for four weeks just to try it out, see how we do it over here at Gundersen Capital. Plus you get that weekly newsletter. that I put my heart and soul into. It’s my internal research. It ends up being about a 10-hour project between Friday and Saturday. It keeps me on top of the market so I don’t go 70 miles beyond the mark fishing where there’s no fish. I try to stay in the active areas of the market, and I also try to watch out for changes. in the market. And you get access to the powerful Best Stocks Now app that I developed for my own use so that I can identify where the best areas are in the market. You know, it comes down to asset classes, obviously. The best asset classes in the market right now continue to be the NASDAQ and the tech-related sector. Gold is a phenomenal asset class right now. Bitcoin has been okay, the cryptocurrencies. I mean, I’m not a big fan of the cryptos myself. But it has been a good area to fish in here this year, 2025. And then there’s just a lot of dead places. Here’s what, 70 miles beyond the fish right now, the energy sector, the traditional energy sector, that is, oil and gas, the nuke sector. is a whole different animal. And then just, you know, your automobile industry, your industrials, your consumer staples, all of this, these are just not good places to be if you’re seeking alpha. The name of the website that I write for is Seeking Alpha, where you’re looking for companies and stocks that are outperforming, doing better than the market. That’s the quest. That’s the quest that gets me excited every single day. They get up early in the morning and start my studies looking for where we might find some alpha with no guarantees that we’ll deliver But you’ve got to at least put yourself in those positions and those GPS coordinates of the market. That’s what the ocean’s all about. It’s GPS coordinates. And you set your autopilot for those GPS coordinates, and the boat nowadays will take you right to those GPS coordinates. Well, we want to know where those GPS coordinates are in the market now. And it does move, obviously. The currents change, the water temperature changes, the habits of the fish change. There’s a lot of analogies actually to fishing. And I think there’s a lot of analogies to one of my other passions, baseball. You want to have the 25 or 30 very best on the field on your roster at any given time. The Minnesota Vikings, hey, my hat is off to them. They made a major change, Barry, in the offseason. They had a quarterback that led them to a phenomenal season. 30-plus touchdowns, yeah. And they got booted in the first round of the playoffs, and they let the quarterback go and decided to go with the rookie quarterback. from michigan and he led him to victory over the chicago bears so they had a pretty good uh fantasy football team to victory uh this past weekend too so gotta get that fantastic there’s a lot of analogies to putting the best players on the field you only have so much room on the field your active players on the field and then your backup players uh… on the on the sidelines just in case you need them you may as well try to find the very very best that you can find and not be satisfied with the lot of mediocrity that the market is full of ninety percent eighty five percent of the market is really mediocrity and then there’s the really bad stuff that is single digit performance uh… over the years Anyways, that’s what we’re all about here at Gundersen Capital and the Best Stocks Now system of investing and trying to build your portfolio over time. Now, if you’d like to sign up for the four-week trial, you go to GundersenCapital.com. That’s GundersenCapital.com. To sample it out. I had one guy write me. He’s a police officer in London. Yeah, that was a great note.
SPEAKER 03 :
Thanking us.
SPEAKER 07 :
That was pretty cool. That makes my entire day. And, of course, I have very strong English roots myself on my mother’s side from North Umberton, way up on the northern border. where my ancestors come from, and from Glasgow area. And they came to America in the 1830s, or 18, early 1840s, crossing that Atlantic Ocean via Liverpool. All right. It’s an exciting day. It’s an exciting time to be in the markets. It can change. You’ve got to be vigilant. Again, get a free trial, GundersenCapital.com. To see us in Santa Clara, 855-611-VEST. Have a great day, everybody.
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This show is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Bill Gunderson or clients of Gunderson Capital Management may have long or short positions in stocks mentioned during the show. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Gunderson Capital Management is a fee-based registered investment advisory firm. All accounts are held at Charles Schwab. Schwab is a member of SIPC and FINRA.