Hour 1 of https://RushToReason.com focuses on medical freedom and political obstacles, with John Rush joined by Dr. Kelly Victory and Steve House. The hour examines why prominent medical and policy voices are suppressed and why reforms face strong resistance. Dr. Victory breaks down the ongoing fight over vaccine policy and medical censorship. She explains why treatments like ivermectin were aggressively dismissed despite real-world results. Steve House pulls back the curtain on the political and financial machinery behind health care. He exposes why hospital billing feels intentionally incomprehensible—and who profits from that confusion. The conversation then shifts to the 2026
SPEAKER 16 :
This is Rush to Reason.
SPEAKER 05 :
You are going to shut your damn yapper and listen for a change because I got you pegged, sweetheart. You want to take the easy way out because you’re scared. And you’re scared because if you try and fail, there’s only you to blame. Let me break this down for you. Life is scary. Get used to it. There are no magical fixes.
SPEAKER 17 :
With your host, John Rush.
SPEAKER 14 :
My advice to you is to do what your parents did!
SPEAKER 05 :
Get a job, turd! You haven’t made everybody equal. You’ve made them the same and there’s a big difference.
SPEAKER 13 :
Let me tell you why you’re here. You’re here because you know something. What you know you can’t explain, but you feel it. You’ve felt it your entire life. That there’s something wrong with the world. You don’t know what it is, but it’s there. It is this feeling that has brought you to me.
SPEAKER 15 :
Are you crazy? Am I? Or am I so sane that you just blew your mind? It’s Rush to Reason with your host, John Rush, presented by Cub Creek Heating and Air Conditioning.
SPEAKER 03 :
And it’s hour number three, Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. Jersey Joe joining us now. Joe, welcome.
SPEAKER 06 :
John, thanks for having my on, and how are you doing tonight?
SPEAKER 03 :
I’m doing great. Always a joy to have you. We just saw the sun set over the mountains, beautiful sunset, and we’ve got a few days more, and then we start going the other direction in our daylight.
SPEAKER 06 :
Well, my son sat here two and a half hours ago. I’m a little further north.
SPEAKER 03 :
Yes, you are. Yes, you are.
SPEAKER 06 :
Hey, John, a couple of comments on the previous hour. Yes, yes, yes. First, talk about housing when the tenant has no vested interest. Have you ever heard of Cabrini-Green?
SPEAKER 04 :
No.
SPEAKER 06 :
It was a housing project in Chicago, 15,000 people packed into a six-square-block area. It became a – and it was all public housing. It was all paid for. Nobody paid anything that nobody had. If there was somebody had a kitchen fire, the city rather than fix the apartment rehab, they just boarded it up. It became a den of drug dealing, drug manufacturing. They finally wound up. It was so bad. They finally wound up just tearing it down. I mean, it was it had got so it was so concentrated and so much crime in such a tiny little area. The solution was tear it down. You can’t put 15000 people in a six square block area. They’ve done experiments with rats, John, and they turn on each other when you pack that many people into that. Anyway, if any of your listeners want to just Google Cabrini-Green… Yeah, I just did.
SPEAKER 03 :
I’ve never heard of it. I’m looking at the, not the Wikipedia’s real authority on it, but it’s at least giving you the details of it, and… Yeah, it says 15,000 people mostly living in mid- and high-rise apartments. The development experienced significant challenges, including high crime, building deterioration, became a metronome for problems associated with public housing in the United States. They demolished it starting in 1995.
SPEAKER 06 :
It’s the post-trial, John, for the failure of high-density government housing. And as soon as you get people who have no vested interest in what they’re living in, You expect them to take care of it? Of course not. Then I want to just talk about gun shows. There’s this myth that there’s something called a gun show loophole. People think that state and federal gun laws somehow magically don’t apply once you go through the front door of a gun show. Guess what, people? Every state and federal gun law that applies outside the wall of a gun show applies inside the wall of a gun show. There is no gun show loophole. You’re right. And, by the way, gun shows don’t allow people to do what’s called floor sales. You can’t walk around saying, waving guns, hey, I got this gun for sale. They won’t let you do that. They don’t allow floor sales because they want the table rental.
SPEAKER 03 :
Yeah, and really quick, Joe, back in the day, one time – I mean, this has been decades ago, decades, literally – 30 years ago, yes, you could walk around with a sign on your back that you had this particular gun for sale and so on. And they didn’t really look highly on you, but they never prevented you from doing that until they realized, wait a minute, we’re losing revenue here. Let’s stop doing that.
SPEAKER 06 :
Right. And no gun show. And the reason they won’t let you do that is they want the table rental. That’s right.
SPEAKER 03 :
That’s right.
SPEAKER 06 :
And depending on the size and venue, it’s anywhere from $250 to $750 for a table. And no private seller who wants to sell one or maybe two guns is going to pay $250 to $750 to rent a table to sell one or two guns. So, no, Don, in the past 30 years, I’ve probably been to 20 gun shows. I’ve never seen a gun for sale on the floor. And if a gun dealer sells you a gun in a gun show, he has to do the exact same background check on you that he has to do if you walked into his store today. during the week to buy it. So there’s no such thing as a gun show loophole. That’s why all these extra restrictions you’re putting are just crazy.
SPEAKER 03 :
No, and again, 100% Joe, because that’s the left, for some odd reason, they have got this focus on gun shows that, I don’t know if any of them have ever been to one, but man, they have got their focus on gun shows, and it is one of their number one talking points no matter what, when it comes to gun control, that’s one of the first things they talk about.
SPEAKER 06 :
Yeah, and again, there’s no logic or rhyme or reason, because Again, there’s no difference between gun laws inside the walls of a gun show than outside.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yep.
SPEAKER 06 :
All right, you want to hear my quote of the week? Yes. Economist Thomas Sowell. Now, John, as a Bible study guy, you should know, you should be familiar with the seven deadly sins, right? And here’s his quote. Envy was once considered to be one of the seven deadly sins, but it has become one of the most admired liberal virtues under its new name, social justice. Yep. Yeah, we have to redistribute the wealth, and we need to tax the rich and give it to the poor.
SPEAKER 03 :
It really is. It’s the commandment to do not covet, which essentially is envy and so on. Literally, Joe, what they’ve done is they’ve taken that commandment and just sort of wiped it out.
SPEAKER 06 :
Yep, yep. So social justice is nothing more than envy in disguise.
SPEAKER 03 :
That’s exactly how it is. That’s right.
SPEAKER 06 :
Another quick one. The news, of course, there were two votes in the Senate today on health care, one about the subsidies. And every news station keeps talking about not renewing the subsidies. And, John, you know this. It’s a lie.
SPEAKER 03 :
It has nothing to do with renewing. It’s their ending period.
SPEAKER 06 :
Well, no, no, no. The subsidies for health insurance policies bought on the Obamacare exchange are still there at the 80%. The only thing that’s ending are the enhanced subsidies that changed the – that upped – the government share of the premium from 80% to 90%, and more importantly, let people making up to 400% of the federal poverty level to be eligible for those subsidies. Let me tell you what 400% of the federal poverty level is for a family of four. You want to take a guess?
SPEAKER 1 :
$75,000?
SPEAKER 03 :
$128,600 a year. $128,000, that’s a lot. So you’re a couple with two kids…
SPEAKER 06 :
You’ve got a household income of $128,600. John, should the taxpayers be underwriting your ability to buy health insurance at a 90% discount?
SPEAKER 04 :
No, it should not.
SPEAKER 06 :
90% discount. It should not.
SPEAKER 03 :
So that’s the big lie. They talk about – Because the other flip side of that too, really quick for everybody listening, is in most cases, I know in some maybe not, but in most cases, Joe, if you’re making that kind of income working for someone else typically, you most likely have a – A program you can participate in, let me say it that way, by your employer, you know, an employee, you know, an employer-employee paid program. They may not pay 100%, but they’re paying a pretty good portion of, but you decide not to participate because, yeah, you and I are kicking in the 90%.
SPEAKER 06 :
Yeah, because you can get a better deal. Again, if you’re, and John, I’m involved in a couple of where we offer that. And, you know, for a family of four, the typical, you know, the typical employee contribution might be 60, 70 bucks a week. So at the end of the month, you’re talking, you know, 280 or something, and they’ve got, you know, deductibles and co-pays. Well, if you can get a better deal on the health care exchange, because it’s picking up 90% of the tab, why would you participate?
SPEAKER 03 :
In fact, and Joe, I’m not criticizing these people. If you had that ability to do that and save money and then go do something else with the money that you’re saving, because as we all know, Joe, money is fungible, not only in government, but a church and any other type of institution, including a family, money is fungible. So yeah, if you can save it there and go spend it on something else, why wouldn’t you?
SPEAKER 06 :
Correct. But again, people need to understand the subsidies are not ending. They’re remaining at roughly the 80% level. However, they’ve cut it back from 400% of the federal poverty level to 200% of the federal poverty level. But the subsidies as specified in the 2009 Affordable Care Act, 100% of those original subsidies are still there. The only thing that’s going away is the enhancement of that was put in place by the Democrats during the COVID pandemic. So the subsidies, the vast majority of the subsidies are still there.
SPEAKER 03 :
Great point, by the way, because I think a lot, well, as you know, the entire left and news media has that wrong, as you know.
SPEAKER 06 :
They do. They absolutely have it wrong.
SPEAKER 03 :
Absolutely.
SPEAKER 06 :
What else do we want to talk about? Hey, I don’t know if you can play. I sent you a clip, Bill. It’s a great clip. It’s got one bad word. Can you play that?
SPEAKER 03 :
Yeah, I’ll do my very best to mute that so Charlie has the dump button ready. I think I can do this okay, Joe, and make this actually work.
SPEAKER 06 :
He’s got Lara Trump, and he’s lamenting the fact that liberals can’t seem to have a civil conversation with people they disagree with without attacking them. So here we go.
SPEAKER 16 :
One of the things we have to correct in America is people should not have to feel bad about living in any part of the country where their politics isn’t a majority, and that works both ways.
SPEAKER 09 :
I agree.
SPEAKER 16 :
Like, you didn’t feel comfortable there, and that’s wrong. And look, I never stop ragging on liberals and woke.
SPEAKER 03 :
I’m going to delete it for just a second here, and then I should be able to bring it back. There we go.
SPEAKER 16 :
I won’t eat with you at Thanksgiving, people. This is the no contact thing.
SPEAKER 03 :
Yeah.
SPEAKER 16 :
You know, lots of liberals wouldn’t be comfortable at a NASCAR rally either. I mean, there are places where you, but I will say, and this is something I’m going to say Friday night, the liberals are worse about this. I will admit it. And we have to look in the mirror on that one. We are just worse at the snobby thing, at the, I don’t know any conservatives who don’t at least talk. Right.
SPEAKER 03 :
I’ll leave it at that, Joe, because the point being, they are worse at that. It’s his own party that he’s talking about, and he’s right. They’re the worst at that.
SPEAKER 06 :
They go right to personal attacks. And, John, this goes back to – and I always mix it up left brain, right brain. But study after study has shown that conservatives tend to be – I think it’s the more logical, mathematical – I think that’s left brain, whereas the majority of liberals tend to be more right brain, which is artistic, emotional, feeling-driven. And when you’re emotional, when you tend to be biased towards emotion and feeling driven, you right away go on, it is not far for you to, it doesn’t take much to trigger you to go on the attack and resort to personal attacks, particularly when the other person refutes your claim, your position, saying, well, that’s not right, and here’s the facts. And you don’t have a valid rebuttal to that. You then, the only thing you’re left to do is start attacking the person personally. You’re a Nazi, you’re a fascist, You know, there’s a quote that’s been attributed to Socrates. I don’t know if it’s correct, but he says, when the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser. Well, John, I’ve been in enough of these debates. You know, I spend half an hour every morning. Right, right, right. And as soon as I… say, well, no, that’s not correct. Here’s the facts. The next thing you know, John, they’re attacking me.
SPEAKER 03 :
Yeah, and that’s typical of that side. They won’t come back with other facts to counter your facts. You’re now just a fascist. You’re now just a Nazi. You’re now just a big jerk, Joe. At the end of the day, you don’t know what you’re talking about.
SPEAKER 06 :
Yes, because they don’t have – and the reason I have to resort to that, John, is they don’t have any facts. No. When you point out that, no, that’s not what the IRS says, that’s not what the U.S. Treasury says, that’s not what the Bureau of Labor Statistics says – Well, they don’t have anything to rebut that. All they’re doing is parroting back something they’ve read on a liberal website that they never bothered to fact check. And then when you challenge them on it and point out, well, here’s my verifiable data from a credible source that says that’s a lie. Well, because they never took the time to fact check it, they don’t have a rebuttal. So attacking you personally is the only one they have.
SPEAKER 03 :
Unfortunately, and I hate to say this, Joe, but you’ve heard Andy and I talk about this plenty. Unfortunately, what you just said is now infiltrating the conservative community. cause as well. And I’m sorry to say that, but it is. We’ve got folks now on our side that literally will do the exact same thing. If it’s their candidate and they think their candidate’s the best, but all of a sudden you challenge that particular candidate with XYZ facts, or there’s a certain amount of our folk, unfortunately, that believe the earth is flat, so you come back to them with you know, certain things that, you know, that you and I can prove to say, no, in fact, it’s round and there’s not even anything scripturally speaking that says it’s flat. But when you try to have a normal conversation with these individuals, Joe, they start doing the same thing that left us.
SPEAKER 06 :
Yep, absolutely. And folks, if you’re a conservative, stop it. Yeah, you’re not helping us. And you’re not helping us, so stop it.
SPEAKER 03 :
Yeah, you’re actually – thank you, Joe, for saying that. You’re actually making it harder for folks like Joe and I and even Jerry who called in earlier, John from Cheyenne and a bunch of others, a host of others, Joe, where we’re out there doing our best to try to get a good message across. Those of you that are on that side of things make it worse for us.
SPEAKER 06 :
Yeah, you destroy your own credibility when you resort to that – You’re just another guy, okay, you got no facts, okay. You’ve basically lost credibility, if that’s what you’re— And, Joe, I can rattle a few of them off.
SPEAKER 03 :
Don’t want to take all the time for this, but, you know, between Flat Earth and chemtrails and on and on we go. I mean, is there cloud seeding? Yes. Is that the same as a chemtrail? No. Chemtrails are contrails. They’re not one and the same. But yet, Joe, there’s people out there that think some pilot’s got a switch that he flips on when he’s flying the 737 Southwest jet across the sky that all of a sudden flips a switch and some sort of chemtrail’s coming out the back. People really believe that.
SPEAKER 06 :
And we’ve had this conversation in detail. And as a pilot who’s owned a jet aircraft, I can tell you all the reasons why that It is impossible, practical, feasible, couldn’t possibly happen and couldn’t possibly work. But I won’t go there. But, folks, it can happen.
SPEAKER 03 :
But there’s people, again, it goes back to the left versus right and even this whole dogma of, oh, if you’re right and you’re even giving me facts, well, I’m just going to call you a name and just say you don’t know what you’re talking about, and then I’m just going to move on. My point is, Joe, is that’s been prevalent on the left now for decades. Unfortunately, it’s moving to our side.
SPEAKER 06 :
It is. It is. And folks, stop it. If you’re one of those people, stop it. Control yourself.
SPEAKER 03 :
By the way, even if you believe that, okay, fine. Believe it, but keep it to yourself. Yeah, keep it to yourself. If you want to believe that, more power to you. I really don’t care, but don’t spew that nonsense out on social media and look like a dodo head. I don’t know how else to say it, Joe.
SPEAKER 06 :
No, you’re right, John. Hey, John, I know.
SPEAKER 03 :
Really quick, we were talking yesterday, but maybe this is what you’re going to say next. But before we move on, do you want to talk about the English language proficiency among the CDL drivers?
SPEAKER 06 :
Yeah, I don’t have it in front of me, but the federal government has now stepped in and said, hey, there used to be. And it’s still on the books, but Obama waived it by executive order. Right, proficiency test. An English language proficiency requirement for people driving with CDL licenses.
SPEAKER 03 :
Which, really quick, for everybody listening, CDL is commercial driver’s license. So semi-trucks and even taxi drivers and people like that.
SPEAKER 06 :
Right, and Obama waived it, but it’s still on the books. Well, Trump reinstated it this June. And as a result of that, I think the number’s up to 9,000.
SPEAKER 03 :
Yeah, I want to say it’s actually 9,000, and depending upon what you read and what state, it could be as high as 17,000 to 20,000, Joe.
SPEAKER 06 :
Right. I think California alone has like 7,000 people.
SPEAKER 03 :
17, actually, I want to say is what Newsom’s fighting the feds over.
SPEAKER 1 :
17,000.
SPEAKER 03 :
It’s a huge number, Joe. It’s ridiculous.
SPEAKER 06 :
And Pennsylvania, a big thing in Pennsylvania, it turned out that— Pennsylvania has waived the English language requirement, not just for CDL, but any driver. You get in a car, you can’t read the overhead road sign about the accident or the speed limit or the no turn. So Pennsylvania now, as the Republicans have proposed a new law that says you can’t even get a car driver’s license if you’re not proficient in the English language. They want to stop giving driver’s tests In foreign languages. And I think that’s a good thing, John. If you can’t read basic instructions, you can’t read signs on the road, you know, they have these overhead signs, you know, exit closed, you know, accident here, you shouldn’t be driving a car.
SPEAKER 09 :
Right.
SPEAKER 06 :
So let’s hope that what Trump is doing takes hold and that law is in Pennsylvania where it says no more foreign language driver’s tests.
SPEAKER 03 :
And for those of you listening, and I think most of my audience gets this, Joe, I mean, that’s a big deal. We have seen numerous, countless accidents that have happened. In fact, we don’t even know about all the accidents, Joe, because not all of them make the news media. But believe me, there has been a ton of accidents because of that. And yet those that are law-abiding citizens, as I – I’m sorry, I hate to say this, but as I go down I-70 and I watch the patrolmen there that pull over people that are doing, you know, in excess of, you know, X mile an hour to get pulled over, but yet we have that problem. To me, Joe, that’s just baffling to me. I’m sorry, but it baffles me.
SPEAKER 06 :
It is. It really is baffling. And, John, you can shake your head and just hope that the voting population wakes up and our legislators wake up and decide it’s time to do something about it. John, how much time we got left?
SPEAKER 03 :
We got about five minutes. Go ahead. You were fine. Keep going. You’re good.
SPEAKER 06 :
Um, I want to talk just as a, uh, as a, as a, uh, a stake in the ground. We have a problem in this country with the illegal immigration, but Europe over the past five or six years has admitted hundreds of thousands of immigrants legally. They said, yeah, come on in.
SPEAKER 04 :
Good point.
SPEAKER 06 :
Syria, Afghan, uh, Iran. So here, and Germany has just released their crime statistics. Um, And this is legal immigration. Now, baseline. The violent crime rate in general for Germany is 163 incidents per 100,000. 163 per incident. Now, you want to know what it is for the Assyrian immigrants? No, what is it? 1,740 per 100,000. That’s 10.7 times higher. For Afghan immigrants, 1,722.
SPEAKER 03 :
Remember,
SPEAKER 06 :
The baseline is 163. Both Syrians and Afghan are coming in at 1,700 per 100,000. Non-German suspects who account for less than 8% of the population now account for 40% of all violent crime. Foreign convicts have grown past the one-third of the total prison population. In sexual offenses, Afghan men showed up as suspects 11 times more often than German men. Iraqi men, 10 times. The raw volume, Syrians committed 135,000 sexual crimes between 2015 and 2024. That’s one every 39 minutes for a decade, John. One sexual crime every 39 minutes for a decade. Afghans, 82,000 crimes. Iraqis, 69. That’s 460,000 crimes in the top 10 migrant source. So when you open your doors, you know— And by the way, it’s also helped to wreck their economies as well, Joe.
SPEAKER 03 :
That’s another whole topic we could get into maybe at a later date, because literally what you’re talking about has changed their economy greatly.
SPEAKER 06 :
Right. And their society—because those groups, by and large, do not assimilate. They maintain their own—you know, France for years has had what they call no-go zones.
SPEAKER 03 :
That’s right.
SPEAKER 06 :
Where the police won’t go. Sweden is suffering with a similar problem. And that brings us finally, John, to the UK, where they’ve got a Muslim mayor in London now, and they’ve got a bunch of Muslims in Parliament. Well, the Leicester Police Department in their DEI has hired several Muslim policewomen, but their religion dictates that they wear a hijab. Now, I looked up the definition of uniform. Uniform, I’m going to paraphrase, basically means the same. If you get stopped by a golden police officer… You can tell the difference between him and a state trooper because they have a different uniform. Well, in Lancaster, England now, if you get stopped by a Muslim cop, she’s wearing a hijab. Now, they’ve made a special thing. They’ve installed a magnetic quick-release catch that if the bad guy struggles with her and grabs her hijab, it’ll break away from the magnetic catch. But can you imagine the amount of wokeness that says, Yeah, we’re going to change our uniform and let Muslim women police officers wear a hijab as part of their uniform.
SPEAKER 03 :
Unreal. Unreal. Not surprised, Joe. Not surprised.
SPEAKER 06 :
Well, that’s the direction we’re heading, Joe.
SPEAKER 03 :
That’s exactly right. Joe, man, as always, I appreciate it. One more show with you through the rest of the year because Christmas and New Year’s are on Thursday, so we’ll do this again next Thursday, finish out the year.
SPEAKER 06 :
Talk to you next week.
SPEAKER 03 :
All right, man. Appreciate it very much. Have a great night. Geno’s Auto Service coming up next. And again, Geno’s can take care of all of your automotive service needs. Contact them today. Go to genosautoservice.com, and Geno’s starts with a J.
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SPEAKER 17 :
This is Rush to Reason on KLZ 560.
SPEAKER 03 :
All right, we are back. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. Scott Garlis will be joining us here in a moment. We’ll talk about the Fed rate cuts, the fact that they are changing the amount of T-bills that they’re issuing and or buying back, and how much further could they go. In other words, how much room do they have. Several things that we’ll actually talk about. And again, for those of you that don’t know Scott, he does a lot of things on X, Bent Pine Capital, and really a solid… how should i say this a level head is what i should that’s the words i’m looking for a really level head when it comes to what goes on on wall street and i appreciate him joining us each week scott welcome what’s going on man hey john not a lot how about you ah a lot and i appreciate you joining us the fed yesterday which we kind of predicted they came down a quarter point we knew it wouldn’t be much more than that uh give us your insight yeah so they came down a quarter point um
SPEAKER 07 :
And then they guided for one rate cut next year. They pretty much left it unchanged. You know, there were some people that argued that was a hawkish take. But, you know, really important thing that happened here, the Fed actually guided up for economic growth next year. They raised their estimate by half a percentage point. I believe it went from 1.8% to 2.3%. And they guided inflation lower. Right off the top of my head, I believe it was, They took it down to 2.4%. So if we’re really thinking about how the Fed’s looking at things and sort of what they need to keep cutting rates, inflation slowing down is definitely it. Because right now, we’re at 3% in terms of a couple of the measures. So if we drop to 2.4%, we’re moving in the right direction. So I think that’s a good thing economically. And hey, growth picking up and inflation slowing down. Everybody likes that.
SPEAKER 03 :
What about Jerome Powell’s comment? I read something today in the Wall Street Journal about he doesn’t feel like the job numbers are very accurate. I didn’t really get into depth. I honestly didn’t have a ton of time today to do that. Did you read that article or what he had to say about that?
SPEAKER 07 :
No, I didn’t read that article. But I can tell you what we see is I know what I heard and what I listened to, what Powell was saying is, like, look, we’re still having a difficult time gauging some things because we don’t have all the data. And some of that data is backed up. Like, I just off the top of my head, you know, in the next couple of days, they’re getting numbers that the October data, it’s not going to be a complete set on the jobs numbers, apparently. Look, the numbers we have seen, though, like ADP, automatic data processing, their payroll processor, they release numbers every month. Those numbers haven’t been good, and they’re way below. I look at them on a seasonality basis. The stuff I put together measures the numbers from 2010 through today, so that’s the last 15 years. What’s going on right now is much slower than what we typically see. for the month of November, October, and, you know, for that matter, most of the year. March is the only month that’s been close to typical seasonality. And so when I say typical seasonality for anybody trying to understand the I take all of those years in between 2010 and now, put the numbers together for each individual month and divide it to get an average to see what it really looks like. So cutting rates, as we’ve talked about, it’s the right thing to be doing. They could cut more. They should cut more based on where the real rate of interest, which is The federal funds rate, the effective Fed funds rate minus inflation, they still have 125 basis points worth of rate cut room based on both CPE, PCE, I’m sorry, and CPI to get it back to where they have managed the typical real rate of interest to since the year 2000.
SPEAKER 03 :
Okay. So in other words, they still, I mean, even with this rate cut, they’ve got a good point and a quarter, point and a half they can go down still.
SPEAKER 07 :
Yeah. And so I think a big part of this, what’s going on here is, so another big thing that Powell said, if I’m jumping ahead on you on this one, I apologize.
SPEAKER 03 :
No, you’re fine. Go ahead. You’re fine.
SPEAKER 07 :
So another big thing Powell said was, you know, they added QT, which is quantitative tightening, where they’ve been letting bonds expire and they hang on to the proceeds instead of reinvesting them. And they’ve been doing that to shrink the balance sheet. Look, they do that because they want to have weapons to fight the next financial crisis that comes along. So one of the things, though, that they haven’t been able to figure out is a number, like Christopher Waller has been warning them about this, saying, hey, guys, look, you need to start being really careful. He’s saying this in the summer. You’re running the risk of draining too many reserves out of the banking system. And so that’s a big deal because if you lose liquidity in the banking system, then all of a sudden these financial institutions – going to borrow money overnight to meet their commitments in terms of… And they don’t lend. Yeah, and so what happens is if they can’t meet their commitments and the liquidity is drained from the financial system, the people that do have money to lend, they’re going to be like, well, screw 4%, man, you’ve got to pay me 8%.
SPEAKER 03 :
That’s right. That’s right, because the money supply tightens, rates go up.
SPEAKER 07 :
Exactly.
SPEAKER 03 :
Not that hard to figure out. And again, Scott, some of this stuff to me is just elementary. Why does the Fed struggle with this stuff so much?
SPEAKER 07 :
I don’t know. But there have been guys that are warning, like Waller, again. I think he’s been the most prescient of all the guys. This is going back years. So now the Fed is going to start buying $40 billion worth of short-term treasuries per month starting this Friday. And they’re talking about ending it sometime next year. They might end it in April. They might keep it going.
SPEAKER 03 :
So what does that tell us?
SPEAKER 07 :
That tells us the Fed went too far, they stayed too tight for too long, and they drained too much money out of the banking system, and now they have to put it back to make sure there isn’t a problem.
SPEAKER 03 :
So there may be sort of – okay, make sure I say this correctly. Are they starting to wake up a little bit to the fact that, wait a minute, yeah, we know we’ve got this vendetta against Trump, but we kind of took that vendetta too far, and now it’s really going to have a negative impact on the economy. So even though we really don’t want to change things because it might help Trump out at the end of the day, we have to.
SPEAKER 07 :
Yes. I mean, yes, you could definitely draw that conclusion.
SPEAKER 03 :
That’s my summary of what’s going on. I don’t know how else to say it because literally I think that’s exactly what’s going on, Scott.
SPEAKER 07 :
Yeah, I just – John, they stayed too high, too tight for too long.
SPEAKER 03 :
Yep.
SPEAKER 07 :
And they should be – Well, you know, you were with me.
SPEAKER 03 :
The opposite was true when it started to run away and they called it transitory and they wouldn’t raise it quickly enough. They were too slow then and they’ve been too slow coming back down.
SPEAKER 07 :
Basically, yeah. They screwed it up on the front end. Now they’re screwing it up on the back end, more or less.
SPEAKER 03 :
Yes. Yeah, and again, I look at all that, and I just, you know, to me, again, I think, again, Jerome Powell, I know the Fed is supposed to be independent of politics and so on, but if you look at what he did on the front side and you look at what he did on the back side, it’s hard to say that he’s independent of politics.
SPEAKER 07 :
Yeah, it’s at least… The good thing about this is at least they’re putting that liquidity back in the system to make sure they don’t make the problem worse.
SPEAKER 03 :
Okay. What does Besantan in that side of things think of all of this? Has he come out and said anything about any of this lately? I have not read anything or watched.
SPEAKER 07 :
No, I mean, they think they should have cut by 50 basis points yesterday.
SPEAKER 03 :
Which they should have.
SPEAKER 07 :
Yeah, and they – percent they they feel like there’s there’s definitely more room to cut than what the fed’s doing okay um so that was what happened the way this was painted by the media going into this was that the fed’s going to cut rates and that’s going to be the last rate cut and that’s it and everything you know there’s nowhere to go but higher so what was really interesting to me too was there was a reporter who’s really been pushing this and uh he asked how he’s like so you know the I get the sense that the consensus is the next move in interest rates is a hike. And Powell actually said no one’s even near that. There’s no chance of that happening. So, again, to your point, Powell’s even by saying that, you’re saying that, rates are probably still too tight.
SPEAKER 03 :
Right, right, exactly. Well, and I want to talk about this because I did throw this in my notes about Trump, you know, now, you know, doing his final interviews, looking for the next Fed chair and so on. And I don’t know when he’ll announce that. I’m guessing my thought, Scott, is I bet you he announces that sometime January, February at the latest, or am I wrong in my thoughts?
SPEAKER 07 :
No, I think that’s fair. You know, I… That will be interesting, too, because Stephen Moran, who was appointed, what was it, two months ago, three months ago?
SPEAKER 04 :
Yeah.
SPEAKER 07 :
Maybe September. His term expires in January. So you could see whoever takes over that next term, because somebody will have to be appointed, if it winds up being, say, Kevin Hassett, who’s the NEC chair right now, He would be put into that role, and then if he gets named Fed chair, he would be a voting board member who’s going to be the next Fed chair who’s sitting there while the current Fed chair knows exactly who his replacement is going to be.
SPEAKER 03 :
Right. That can’t be comfortable.
SPEAKER 07 :
No, it would make for an interesting dynamic. The flip side of that is I think the other guy, I really think, The person that would be best for the job is Christopher Waller, who’s currently a board member. And again, same scenario.
SPEAKER 03 :
Same thing happens. Right, same scenario. Yeah, doesn’t change.
SPEAKER 07 :
But he’s pragmatic. He fits there. Look, we want a guy who’s going to be pragmatic and can be forward-looking.
SPEAKER 03 :
Okay, so here’s a question, and probably something that people out there are even listening, thinking, because if I have this thought, I’m sure somebody else does. Okay, let’s say that, you know, very pragmatic, guy that we like, likes Trump, understands what Trump’s trying to do with the economy and so on. Let’s say it’s a 10-year term, so let’s say he gets in and then there’s a complete reversal at the next presidential election whereby maybe some loony lefty ends up taking over. What does that do for him in that particular situation, or does it really change much?
SPEAKER 07 :
It doesn’t change anything.
SPEAKER 03 :
Okay. As long as he stays steadfast with what he wants to do with the economy.
SPEAKER 07 :
Yes. What he sees as the best course for the economy is the action he’s going to take.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay.
SPEAKER 07 :
And everybody laughed at this guy when he and James Bullard, who was the St. Louis Fed chair at the time, Waller was the head of research. But they came out and said, hey, look, we’re going to see unemployment sub-10% by the end of 2020. We’re going to see this economy taking off, and it’s going to go gangbusters next year. Other Fed members publicly came out and ridiculed them and said they’re crazy and they don’t know what they’re talking about. And they were dead right. I just think somebody that has that track record and we’ve seen it and heard it and watched it in action, that guy is going to be the best fit. Whether or not that happens is a different story.
SPEAKER 03 :
Well, I guess time will tell. Give us, give me your best guess as to who you think the Fed pick, you know, who the Fed chair pick from Trump will be.
SPEAKER 07 :
I, you know, the scuttlebutt is, is Hassett. Um, I think Waller’s going to be the guy. Supposedly, Trump wanted Bullard, but it didn’t happen. I think Waller would be great. I don’t think Kevin Warsh would be the best guy because Warsh was a hawk forever, and suddenly he wants to become Fed chair and starts sounding very dovish. So I don’t. I don’t know that he would be the right fit.
SPEAKER 03 :
Okay. Okay. Interesting. I mean, time will tell what, you know, again, I don’t know what Trump’s doing. I guess the question is, I mean, Trump’s not dumb. He’s probably one of the smartest economic presidents, you know, economically speaking presidents we’ve probably ever had. And I’m not exaggerating when I say that just because of his background and so on. I mean, he has to be having exactly the same conversations you and I are having right now with the folks that he’s around, or am I wrong?
SPEAKER 07 :
No, I would very much think so. Look, I think Trump would very much like Scott Bassett to take over that role, but Scott Bassett doesn’t want it.
SPEAKER 03 :
And frankly, I think he’s fine right where he’s at. Leave him alone.
SPEAKER 07 :
I think he’s great where he’s at, yes. I think he can be way more effective working more closely with the president from the White House than doing it from the Fed.
SPEAKER 03 :
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. I agree. I agree. And I like Besson. I think he’s doing a great job. I like what he’s doing. I think he fits very well in that position. I think Trump would be dumb to change that around, personally.
SPEAKER 07 :
I couldn’t agree with you more on that.
SPEAKER 03 :
That’s my thought. And again, time will tell, but that’s my thought, Scott.
SPEAKER 07 :
Yeah, I agree. But again, to go back and answer the other question fully, with Waller, if Waller’s appointed, I think he would stick the course, even if If the White House turns, he’s going to do what he sees as right no matter what. The next president isn’t going to change his opinion.
SPEAKER 03 :
Very well said. Scott, how do folks find you?
SPEAKER 07 :
Sure, bentpinecapital.com, or you can follow me on LinkedIn, Twitter, or Substack, C. Scott Garlis.
SPEAKER 03 :
Always a joy, Scott. Have a great night. Appreciate you. John, you too. Thanks so much. You’re very welcome. No, appreciate it very much. We had to shift Scott around this week because he had a recital. last night for one of his kids, which I said, well, you absolutely need to go do that. Keep in mind, he’s two hours ahead of us. So I said, absolutely, you go do what you need to do, and we’ll make things work. And he’s here today. And again, I always appreciate Scott’s great wisdom when it comes to things in the market. Roof Savers of Colorado coming up next. Again, you can rejuvenate your current roof, have it last up to 15 years longer. It’s the RoofMax product. It can be put on as long as the temperature is above 40 degrees, which right now, it’s perfect. 303-710-6916.
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SPEAKER 17 :
The best export we have is common sense. You’re listening to Rush to Reason. All right, we are back. I got a few minutes here. Dan, go ahead.
SPEAKER 08 :
So have you read the article on the Small Business Administration hearing they had yesterday?
SPEAKER 03 :
I did not. No. Inform me.
SPEAKER 08 :
Okay. So apparently we’re talking billions of dollars of SBA loans that have gone to large corporations and purposes that it’s not intended to do.
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay.
SPEAKER 08 :
And they talk about Section 8A, which is supposed to be a… a section of the code, I don’t know what code or what section of the federal law, but it’s supposed to give preferential treatment to minorities, women, and veterans. And what it means is that they don’t have to do an open bid for these contracts. They just automatically get selected. And unfortunately, Fortune 500 companies have been taking advantage of it, and they have been giving out funds to organizations that don’t qualify for, for the small business administration loans. Uh, why am I not shocked? What’s that?
SPEAKER 03 :
Why am I not shocked?
SPEAKER 08 :
Yeah. So it was, um, and a perfect example of that is remember the pay period loans, the PPP loans during COVID. And, um, you know, there was people that were, um, you know, getting those loans that shouldn’t have gotten those loans. And they keep saying Walmart got some of the loans. Why Walmart needed those loans, it was supposed to help small businesses stay afloat during COVID. And we’ve got money that’s going to these big corporations. And, of course, I can’t remember who the sitting committee member was who held the hearings yesterday, but the two Democrats said, well, you’re trying to take away 8A programs, and all she’s saying is let’s put the brakes on it and get an audit of exactly what’s going on and the procedures of handing out these loans. It sounds like, of course, it’s the federal government, so they’re so efficient.
SPEAKER 04 :
Oh, yeah.
SPEAKER 08 :
They got it tied, just like a private bank. I mean, if Trump wanted to get money, he probably should have just applied for a small business loan, and he probably would have got it.
SPEAKER 04 :
No comment.
SPEAKER 08 :
Right. No comment. Real estate.
SPEAKER 03 :
Unreal.
SPEAKER 08 :
I’m just saying. I’m being facetious.
SPEAKER 03 :
No, it’s laughable. No, Dan, it’s laughable. I mean, no, I’m right there with you. The whole thing’s laughable. It’s ridiculous.
SPEAKER 08 :
Yeah, so we got… And, of course, the Democrats are like, oh, you’re trying to take away the Section 8A, which I think I don’t agree with at all because, you know, that was… It was put in place by Jimmy Carter to help, you know, small businesses, specifically… minorities and specifically the african-american community but it’s not being used for that purpose at all imagine that and and it’s like you’re taking away competition which there again we’re probably paying more for services or uh products that we we shouldn’t be paying for because if if you don’t have to bid to win a contract right what are you gonna do up the price
SPEAKER 03 :
You’re going to make as much on it as you can because you don’t care. It’s sort of like Section 8 housing and other things where no one cares at the end of the day. Dan, why do we care? We’re not paying for it. Who cares?
SPEAKER 08 :
Yeah, and the thing is to help out the quote-unquote poor.
SPEAKER 03 :
Right.
SPEAKER 08 :
But these quote-unquote poor people are becoming millionaires off of the taxpayers’ tax.
SPEAKER 03 :
That’s right, off our back.
SPEAKER 08 :
That’s right. If I’m a poor individual… and I become a millionaire by, you know, a liberal or a horrible internal procedures, policies, or whatever they do on issuing these loans, I’m taking advantage of it.
SPEAKER 03 :
That’s right. You’re 100% correct.
SPEAKER 08 :
I’m not saying me, but I’m just saying people are taking advantage of it.
SPEAKER 03 :
No, you’re right. No, they’re taking advantage of it. Absolutely. I get it. Absolutely. Yes.
SPEAKER 08 :
And that’s not what it’s meant to do. And it’s like they have these good, I think Jersey Joe said, you know, the Liberals think more out of their right side brain. That’s right.
SPEAKER 03 :
Right brain versus left brain.
SPEAKER 08 :
Yes. It’s not logical.
SPEAKER 03 :
That’s right.
SPEAKER 08 :
So they have a good idea. And this is where we need to balance.
SPEAKER 03 :
That’s right. Exactly right.
SPEAKER 08 :
Because, you know, the left hand, me, I’m more left brain thinking. I’m more logical and everything else.
SPEAKER 03 :
Correct.
SPEAKER 08 :
But that means I can become insensitive and, you know, where I probably need to. So we need each other to balance each other out.
SPEAKER 03 :
That’s right. But not in this way.
SPEAKER 08 :
The left, Yeah, but the left has gotten so far emotional that we can’t balance this out, which is unfortunate.
SPEAKER 03 :
That’s right.
SPEAKER 08 :
It’s unfortunate because then we suffer as the citizens of this country because we don’t have that balance that we need.
SPEAKER 03 :
That’s right. Dan, I’ve got to run. I appreciate it, man. Thanks for calling. Last caller of the day, Golden Eagle Financial, coming up next. Talk to Al Smith today. Find him at klzradio.com.
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SPEAKER 03 :
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SPEAKER 03 :
All right, tomorrow’s movies, two of them, Not Without Hope and Silent Night, Deadly Night, NFL Picks, of course, and movie rentals will be movies of the sea. Have a great night. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560.
SPEAKER 1 :
We’ll be right back.
