In this episode of Rush to Reason, host John Rush dives deep into the subject of government inefficiency. The discussion opens with an analysis of a government shutdown and what it really means for citizens, emphasizing how little disruption is truly felt by most people. This leads to a spirited conversation on the notion of ‘non-essential’ government positions and the redundancy in certain federal and state operations, prompting listeners to question the necessity of a bloated workforce funded by taxpayer dollars.
SPEAKER 14 :
This is Rush to Reason.
SPEAKER 15 :
You are going to shut your damn yapper and listen for a change because I got you pegged, sweetheart. You want to take the easy way out because you’re scared. And you’re scared because if you try and fail, there’s only you to blame. Let me break this down for you. Life is scary. Get used to it. There are no magical fixes.
SPEAKER 03 :
With your host, John Rush.
SPEAKER 17 :
My advice to you is to do what your parents did!
SPEAKER 16 :
Get a job, Turk! You haven’t made everybody equal. You’ve made them the same, and there’s a big difference.
SPEAKER 12 :
Let me tell you why you’re here. You’re here because you know something. What you know you can’t explain, but you feel it. You’ve felt it your entire life, that there’s something wrong with the world. You don’t know what it is, but it’s there. It is this feeling that has brought you to me.
SPEAKER 15 :
Are you crazy? Am I?
SPEAKER 17 :
Or am I so sane that you just blew your mind?
SPEAKER 14 :
It’s Rush to Reason with your host, John Rush, presented by Cub Creek Heating and Air Conditioning.
SPEAKER 07 :
All right, welcome. Hour number three, Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. Shut down, meaning it’s not really shut down. Essential services are still going to happen. And there’s several articles out and, again, so much hype over this where the Democrats, of course, want you to think that just the end of the world has happened, even though they caused it. So what really happens on a day like today? You’ll not notice any difference. Traffic might be a little lighter. That might be about the only thing you notice is traffic might be lighter. Why? Because non-essential government workers didn’t work today. So I always have the question, I know I say this every single time, if they’re non-essential, then why do we need them anyways? I get it. There are, you know, national parks and so on where, you know, they all still operate, but on a skeleton crew, so on and so forth. And Again, I always have to ask the question, then why do you need a full crew? If they can operate on a skeleton crew, why do you need a full crew? Why do we need that extra payroll? And the answer is because government can do whatever it wants to because there’s no competition and they don’t have to operate like a private business does. Where a private business would figure out efficient ways to do things and make things happen and eliminate payroll at times because times get tough, government doesn’t have to do that because they have an unlimited bank account. Yours. Yours. And they’re borrowing. So your tax dollars and the borrowing against your tax dollars is what they do. And, again, I’m of the opinion we need a whole lot less government, not more. The shutdown, for the majority of you, you’ll never know they’re shut down. I’m not exaggerating. The majority of people will go about their day-to-day life and not notice any difference, despite what the naysayers out there, the alarmists will tell you that, oh, the sky is falling. No, it’s not. As far as I’m concerned, they could leave it shut down. We could continue on like this indefinitely, and we’d be just fine. In fact, you probably don’t want my opinion when it comes to some of our national parks and things along those lines. I’m one that says scale some of those back and sell some of the land off. Collect some revenue. Pay the debt. By the way, that’s what normal houses and families and companies have to do. Why should we be any different? And why does state and federal lands consist of about 40% of the country? It shouldn’t. Sell that stuff off. You’re paying to manage it. You’re paying to maintain it. You’re paying all sorts of things for it. Get rid of it. Collect some tax dollars. Because remember, when it goes back into the private sector, you now get income off of it in the way of property taxes and so on. And by the way, you save money. So not only do you get the tax dollars in, but you no longer have to maintain said property. So you win in two ways. And I know I’m on a touchy subject. There’s a lot of even outdoorsmen and so on that think that I’m probably crazy and what I’m saying. But trust me, folks, we have so much land. You could sell half of it off and most people would never the difference. The vast, vast, vast amounts of land that we don’t need. And that money could come back into the coffer, into the treasury. We don’t need as much as we have. And I know there’s people out there that would disagree with me and say, no, we actually need more. Take it away from those that have too much private land ownership and let’s put that back into government. I disagree. I think it should go the other way around. I think we need to get rid of some. We don’t need it. It’s money we could collect, especially when land prices are high. Let’s make money on some of this. Let’s not go the other direction. Bob, go ahead.
SPEAKER 17 :
Oh, gosh. I don’t even know where to start, John. You know, you and I have talked about the Postal Service. Absolutely absurd. It could go into private hands. Again, I… I really think that I should take a screw and screw a garbage can right to my post office box in front of my house with a trap door in it to dump everything in there, it’s absolutely ridiculous.
SPEAKER 07 :
Yeah, the majority of what you get, I mean, again, there are some, like I told you the other day, for me, there are some legitimate things that do come in the mail, but I literally, Bob, even as a business owner, I could get a couple of deliveries a week and be just fine, and the majority of even what I get goes in the garbage. It’s not needed.
SPEAKER 17 :
One delivery a week. I don’t even get one delivery a week of any value. My entire life is on the Internet.
SPEAKER 07 :
And I think the majority of people would agree. Now, for me, I get all sorts of things business-wise that come in the mail from, you know, registrations for vehicles and things along those lines where, yes, I still need a way to receive those. But, again, do I need those daily, Bob? No, I could do it once a week and be just fine.
SPEAKER 17 :
you’re in a little bit different position than I am.
SPEAKER 07 :
And there are others like me, although we are the minority. You know, I’m the minority, not the majority. So you literally could change all the way that’s serviced very easily.
SPEAKER 17 :
I mean, so, you know, I’m in my mid-70s, and so I deal with some health issues and billing and stuff like that. It takes forever. I’ve had minor stuff that I get a bill for eventually $5, months later for $14,000, and it comes down to 18 pages of this, that, and the other thing, and my share is $10, and they’ve got to send this to me in the mail?
SPEAKER 07 :
Right. I mean, it’s just… No, they could send that in an email, and you’d be just fine. Yeah, I mean, some of the other things too, you know, Bob, that I think they could really sit down, evaluate, and figure out that, you know, how could we operate? You know, I noticed reading one of the articles today that, you know, certain things like, you know, passport services, you know, you might be delayed in getting a passport and renewal. And Bob, I just have to ask the question to those that, you know, the powers that be, Why are we still physically doing those things? You know, we’re at a point now, Bob, where AI, for all intensive purposes, could handle the majority of that transaction and send that off to whoever prints those passport books, and it’s an automatic process. Why does anybody need to handle that in the first place?
SPEAKER 17 :
Well, you know, every 10 years I have to renew my passport. I have to renew my driver’s license every five years, which is ridiculous.
SPEAKER 07 :
Correct.
SPEAKER 17 :
Registrations on cars… I don’t even use the mail for that. I don’t even get in my car and drive to the DMV. It’s all.
SPEAKER 07 :
Yeah, the only time, and this happened to us today, the only time you really need to go to DMV is if you’ve got an old vehicle that still had money left on it. So say you traded the vehicle off and there was still half a year left on the registration, you can get credit for that going against the other vehicle. And by the way, you should be able to do that online as well, Bob. There’s no reason why you have to drive to DMV to actually handle that. There should be a process whereby you can do that online as well. It’s stupid to have to go to the office to handle that.
SPEAKER 17 :
You know, I really… I have absolutely zero contact with any federal agency, city, county, state, or federal, that I can’t take care of on my phone.
SPEAKER 07 :
Yeah, you’re lucky. Unfortunately, there are those situations for, again, those of us as business owners, we probably run into this and encounter this more than anybody else, Bob. But again, it doesn’t have to be that way. There are ways where they can improve that efficiency, and you could do it all online, and it would save from having humans be involved in the process.
SPEAKER 17 :
I’ll give you another example. You know, I have a no-fee Charles Schwab account, and there’s probably… $2.5 million in it.
SPEAKER 08 :
Okay.
SPEAKER 17 :
Give or take a day. I have never had to do anything via mail.
SPEAKER 08 :
Right.
SPEAKER 17 :
I can trade stocks. I can sell. I can buy. I can take care of all my, you know, my RMDs, everything. Right. On a $100 cheap phone at my kitchen table.
SPEAKER 07 :
Right. But yet there are certain things inside government you cannot do that with, Bob.
SPEAKER 17 :
Did you see what the latest was today?
SPEAKER 07 :
No, what?
SPEAKER 17 :
Well, remember they offered early retirement, you know, give you some kind of a severance. Oh, yeah, for federal workers, you mean? Do you know how many people took that?
SPEAKER 07 :
How many?
SPEAKER 1 :
300,000.
SPEAKER 17 :
300? They were estimating 100,000.
SPEAKER 07 :
300 took that. Wow, I didn’t know that.
SPEAKER 17 :
And now they’re talking about within the next two or three days, they can eliminate another 800,000 are non-essential. I mean, a lot of these departments go, oh, we have 30% of our employees are essential, and the other 70% are non-essential.
SPEAKER 08 :
Why are they there?
SPEAKER 07 :
Yeah, exactly. Then why are we paying them in the first place?
SPEAKER 17 :
John, I worked my career for AT&T. Had I been non-essential for one day, I would have been without a job.
SPEAKER 07 :
Right, right. So again, that begs the question, why do we allow this to happen in government?
SPEAKER 17 :
Oh, it’s, what do they call that, those… you know, those agencies that never, they’re not elected.
SPEAKER 07 :
No, these are unelected bureaucrats.
SPEAKER 17 :
You know.
SPEAKER 07 :
Yeah, 100%. Yep. Bob, thanks. I did not know the information on that. I appreciate that very much. I’ll let you go. We’re under break. We’ll come right back. Joe, hang tight. Sorry, Flesh Law is coming up next. 303-806-8886.
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SPEAKER 07 :
This is Rush to Reason on KLZ 560.
SPEAKER 11 :
All right, we are back.
SPEAKER 07 :
Joe, you’re next.
SPEAKER 18 :
Go ahead. John, two things regarding AI and passports. I came back from a cruise last year from the Bahamas, and when I got off the ship, there was a sign saying for U.S. passport holders, you know, take this lane, don’t wear, you know, take off your glasses, take off your hat. It was facial recognition to reenter the country. Right. Have you experienced that yet?
SPEAKER 07 :
Well, I have global entry, so I do that every time.
SPEAKER 18 :
Yeah, so you don’t have to show your passport book.
SPEAKER 07 :
No, I just walk in.
SPEAKER 18 :
Just facial recognition. The other thing regarding, you know, I’ve been thinking about that. If I were to have the contractor deliver mail in this country, I would start off with three days a week. Half the town would get Monday, Wednesday, Friday. The other half would get Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday. And if you needed something on the off days, you’d go to the post office and pick it up.
SPEAKER 07 :
Correct, which most wouldn’t. The majority of people would just wait until the next day and you’d be in good shape.
SPEAKER 18 :
Yeah, so again, so you could – and it wouldn’t be – you could do it with half the delivery drivers because it’s not like they’re overloaded.
SPEAKER 07 :
The only thing keeping – really quick, and you know this, Joe. The only thing keeping the post office really alive right now, and any postman would agree with me on this – is the package delivery, the Amazons of the world. And, by the way, they’re delivering because of contracts. I don’t know if those have been renegotiated of late or not, but at one time the post office was losing money on that deal they had with Amazon. I don’t know if that’s changed since, Joe, but that’s about the only thing really keeping the post office afloat is the package delivery.
SPEAKER 18 :
And even there, John, my wife does a lot of shopping on Amazon. We probably get two or three Amazon deliveries a week.
SPEAKER 07 :
Right.
SPEAKER 18 :
And most of them come with private drivers. Yeah, a lot do. one package a week or less in my mailbox, but most of it, you know, it has to be something that’ll fit in the mailbox, which has got to be a really, really small package.
SPEAKER 07 :
Yeah, a small package, you know, one of the, you know, you buy a garment, a shirt or whatever, and it comes in one of those little, you know, bubble-packed kind of a wrap deal. I mean, other than that, Joe, you’re right. I mean, most everything else is coming either UPS or the Amazon driver themselves.
SPEAKER 18 :
Yeah, and when I say Amazon, it’s not even the truck.
SPEAKER 07 :
No, it’s an independent, you know, somebody that’s just pulling up in a plainclothes car.
SPEAKER 18 :
Yeah, and they’re Toyota Altima or Nissan Altima or whatever.
SPEAKER 07 :
It’s like Uber for Amazon.
SPEAKER 18 :
Yeah, exactly, yeah. So, again, I could get by with one day a week, but for those who have to be kind of – acclimated to it, John, I think you start them off with three days a week, and once they figure out that three days a week, yeah, that’s, you know, no problem.
SPEAKER 07 :
I mean, other than me, Joe, as a business person, the majority of what comes in the mail that is non-business related is junk.
SPEAKER 18 :
It’s garbage. And most big businesses have P.O. boxes anyway. They have somebody go down to the post office in the morning, go pick it up, you know, there’s part of there on the way into the office, they stop by and empty the P.O. box, so it’s not even a big business issue, so…
SPEAKER 07 :
No, the reality is that that whole entity, the post office itself, could be completely revamped. By the way, should be, because we still subsidize it as taxpayers, and it should be revamped because it ought to be able to stand on its own. If it can’t stand on its own, then figure out a way where it does.
SPEAKER 18 :
And by the way, they did something, by the way, to hide the post office losses. 1974, Congress passed something called the ERIS Act, Employee Retirement Security Act. It said, hey, if you have a defined pension plan, You, the employer, every year have to calculate what those future pension liabilities are. In other words, if you’ve got a guy who’s 28 years old and he’s been working for you, he’s earned some sort of pension. He may not draw it for another 40 years, but you have to bank money so that when he turns 65, it’ll be there and you’ve got to put it. Well, the post office no longer has to do that. So they’re not including in their operating costs the pension liabilities that they’re incurring every single day. Which are big. Which are huge.
SPEAKER 07 :
Right.
SPEAKER 18 :
Because if you’re a U.S. Postal Service employee, you get a very, very rich or lucrative pension. And the post office, unlike private industry today, is not being required to book that as a liability and bank the funds in the future. So their net operating loss, which is still a net operating loss, is grossly understated. They’re actually losing way more money than their annual report posts. Hey, John, one more question. Is Bob Duco going to do a eulogy for Joanne Chesimar, the woman who murdered the state police officer in New Jersey?
SPEAKER 07 :
I didn’t hear about that one.
SPEAKER 18 :
Oh, you didn’t hear about Bob? Joanne Chesimar, 1973, she and some other people killed a New Jersey state trooper, and she got sentenced to life in prison. And a few years later, 1979, some of her Black Liberation Army buddies broke her out of prison here in New Jersey.
SPEAKER 08 :
Mm-hmm.
SPEAKER 18 :
And got her to Cuba, where, of course, Cuba doesn’t have an extradition policy with the U.S. And she was living there in exile, but, you know, comfortably in Cuba for the past 40. But she died last week. The Chicago Teachers Union yesterday put out this beautiful eulogy mourning her passing, never once mentioning the fact that she was a convicted cop killer.
SPEAKER 07 :
Oh, geez. I did not know that.
SPEAKER 18 :
Never once. Oh, yeah, I sent you an email, Bob. I sent you an email.
SPEAKER 07 :
Okay, I’ll check it out.
SPEAKER 18 :
But she was, so it’s just sickening. She has no connection to Chicago, but the Chicago Teachers Union went out of their way to publish this glowing, glowing eulogy for this woman who was a convicted cop killer.
SPEAKER 07 :
Unbelievable. Unbelievable.
SPEAKER 18 :
That’s all I got, Robert.
SPEAKER 07 :
Well, thanks, Joe. Appreciate you very much. I’ll let you go. Ben and Evergreen, you’re next. Go ahead.
SPEAKER 05 :
Yeah, just a couple brief comments. Sure. You know, a few weeks ago, Elon Musk, he’s talking about all the waste, and they did everything but, you know, hang the guy on a cross. And now we’ve got all these non-essential government employees. Right. And I’m with Trump. It’s like we don’t need him to begin with.
SPEAKER 07 :
I am, too. You know my feelings on that, Ben. I feel like – and that’s across the board. That’s not just on the federal level. I could take this to the state and local level as well. Far too many of them don’t do anything to justify their job.
SPEAKER 05 :
Damn right. And the other thing is the post office – I will say this – The one guy that called in that was like 70-something.
SPEAKER 17 :
Right, Bob.
SPEAKER 05 :
Yeah, nice guy. I just disagree with some of that thinking in that if you can get a piece of mail delivered for less than a buck, that’s the cheapest money you’ll spend. You just try and hire somebody. 30 years ago, I was doing some courier work. It was $12. Back then, just to get anything across town, one little envelope. So I’ll let the post office… For the time being, I’ll cut them a break, let them do what they do best. But what’s completely ridiculous to me is, again, going back to Musk, everybody hated him. There’s all these protests. Maxine Waters, God knows we had to hear from her. Oh, geez. And it’s like… We don’t need these 300,000 or whatever. No, we don’t.
SPEAKER 07 :
We don’t. I mean, as I’ve said, we have 3 million federal workers, and you could literally run it with probably a third of that number or less.
SPEAKER 05 :
And, you know, I don’t hate the government. I hate a lot of what they do. but just taper them off, you know, cut them back.
SPEAKER 07 :
And I’m like you, Ben. What I hate about government is that it just gets, it’s like church. I’m sorry to use that comparison, but it’s true. It’s that, well, we’ve always done it this way, so we’ll keep doing it. They never look at any new ways to innovate, and once something gets started, it never ends. It’s like in a church. If you start a public ministry, for example, Ben, that bloody thing will run until Christ comes back. The reality is maybe it doesn’t need to run anymore, but it will because it’s in the church. Government’s the same way. It’s no different.
SPEAKER 05 :
They’re doubling down on what doesn’t work that well. That’s right. It might have worked pretty good at one point.
SPEAKER 07 :
That’s right.
SPEAKER 05 :
But instead of stopping it, they’re growing it.
SPEAKER 07 :
That’s exactly right. Government is exactly the same way. That’s my beef with government.
SPEAKER 05 :
And I like Musk, but I didn’t need him to tell me… Oh, no, I already knew that. We all knew that. Yeah. And so maybe this will be kind of that clarion call, that wake-up for people to go, well, yeah… Do we need this? It’s funny. When people come to their own conclusions on an idea, pretty soon it’s like, oh, it’s our idea. It wasn’t Musk.
SPEAKER 07 :
Great point.
SPEAKER 05 :
We thought of it. We’re smart.
SPEAKER 07 :
Yeah, great point. You’re right.
SPEAKER 05 :
Right, people, myself included. You know, most people, we’re just not that smart or we’d be doing it differently to begin with, at least the government end of things.
SPEAKER 07 :
Yeah, I agree.
SPEAKER 05 :
So cut back where you can, when you can, how you can.
SPEAKER 07 :
I agree.
SPEAKER 05 :
They work for us, or so we say, but they got their own idea.
SPEAKER 07 :
Oh, you’re right about that one as well. Thanks, Ben. Appreciate you very much. Nope, all spot on, guys. I cannot argue with any of that. And these are the times whereby, and I think these shutdowns, by the way, I guess I could thank the Democrats for this one because this is on them, not us. The reality is they’re the ones that created this, and at the end of the day, This is going to come back to hurt them more than it does us. I welcome these because, again, it shines a light on these sections of government whereby, in this case, 300,000 workers are taking early retirement. Well, let’s not replace them. We don’t need them. In fact, we need a lot more to do exactly right. what they’re doing. Roof Savers of Colorado coming up next. Again, save money on your insurance by having a proper roof. You can extend the life of, rejuvenate that roof is what I should say. And if it needs replaced, Dave can help you with that as well. 303-710-6916.
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The best export we have is common sense. You’re listening to Rush to Reason.
SPEAKER 07 :
All right, we are back. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. Scott Garlis joining us now. Scott, welcome. How are you? Hey, John, I’m well. How are you? I’m doing great. Give us an update on Wall Street. What’s going on? Government shutdown. How is that having an effect, or is it having an effect on Wall Street?
SPEAKER 06 :
Yeah, you know, typically, contrary to what the popular belief would be, government shutdowns actually work out very well for Wall Street.
SPEAKER 07 :
Okay.
SPEAKER 06 :
How so?
SPEAKER 07 :
Why is that?
SPEAKER 06 :
Well, so coming into shutdowns, what you see is you see fear-mongering everywhere. The headlines like, oh, my God, the economy is going to collapse. This is a disaster. You hear every single doomsday scenario. And you hear a lot from people on Wall Street, too, especially with what I found was going back and looking at studies. I’ll get into this a little bit more in a minute. But the scenario is almost the same every single time. The stock market is close to all-time highs. And there are people like they want to get really negative on it on the stock market, too. And so they’re they really like to talk up the angles about what a disaster it’s going to be. And typically it does not work out that way.
SPEAKER 07 :
Right. Right. So here’s a question, and I didn’t realize this. I was talking to some callers that called in just a little bit ago, and originally there was a thought that there would be about 100,000 federal workers that would take the early buyout and be done, but I guess that number has risen to 300,000, and if government doesn’t replace them, that’s less money we’re spending inside of government, and I think the chances of them being replaced are pretty slim.
SPEAKER 06 :
This is true. I mean, it’s very possible. It depends on what systems and abilities they have in place.
SPEAKER 07 :
Right.
SPEAKER 06 :
Yeah. I mean, because you wouldn’t want to create a situation where we’re stressed for workers and we can’t get government turns into chaos and gridlock. But, yeah, I would think they’re going to be more selective probably. on how they refill those positions, I would think.
SPEAKER 07 :
Well, and here’s a question I have for you. In a lot of cases, I mean, not every, but I kind of believe there’s a lot of cases where you start looking at AI and saying, okay, guys, how can we redesign and streamline some of the things that we’re doing, just like the private sector does, where they say, listen, we’ve got, you know, for example… I went to a meeting I had today at noon, met somebody, I’m not going to name the restaurant, but went to a restaurant, kind of a not fast food, but you can still sit down, but it’s not a full bore, you know, you know, dine in type. I mean, it’s one of those you can go in, you can go out and do whatever. And in this particular case, and we’ve watched it morph here over the past several months, they’ve gone from having, you know, a couple of people behind a counter that would normally take your order to the kiosks. And this isn’t McDonald’s, so it’s not a McDonald’s, but it’s very similar where you walk up to the kiosk, and we’ve learned the system now to where you type in your customer code, which is typically your phone number, and all of a sudden you get started, and it kind of knows that some of your orders have already been and so on. And by the way, at the end of the day, I can order just about as fast doing that as you could with somebody behind the counter, but they’ve eliminated, in this case, two positions behind the counter, put two machines in its place. That’s AI. That’s what it’s doing.
SPEAKER 06 :
Yeah, you know, my son and I, it’s funny, this summer we were going to some sports tournament somewhere, and we stopped at a McDonald’s that had recently been sort of rehabbed, I guess, for lack of a better term. And they had that, you walk up, and they have like a wall-sized menu you can go through, punching your whole order. And there was only one person that would come by and man the counter occasionally if somebody had a problem. Yeah, that saves a lot of workers and money.
SPEAKER 07 :
And so my thought is, okay, why can’t government do the same thing? Or are they even, and you know more about this than I do, or are we even looking at that? Or is it just because, you know, governments, I said this a moment ago, but government’s a lot like church. We’ve always done it this way, so we just keep doing it this way. When, in fact, they could look at ways to streamline things, and the question is, are they?
SPEAKER 06 :
That I can’t give you a 100% answer on, but yes, I would think very much so. Um, they, they have to see the cost benefits doing stuff like that. And again, like we were talking about, maybe it was last week, you know, we’re seeing a drop off in the hiring of younger people right now. And you’re, you’re hearing this more people are talking about how college graduates are having a harder time finding a job or finding a job because, um, there’s analyst type roles that they typically take coming out of college. That’s where AI is creeping in more on the job market because you’re finding people with a little more experience can prompt AI to get the things they need quickly and they can do things easily and it makes the workplace more efficient and I would think people probably get paid a little bit better as a result.
SPEAKER 07 :
Well, and by the way, I don’t think you’re wrong in that. And I think if I were a young person, I would really be, you know, really be rethinking, you know, what am I studying? What am I going to do when I come out of college per se? And should I even be taking this track or should I shift gears and become an electrician or a plumber or a carpenter or something along those lines? Maybe at the end of the day, maybe this career path I picked is, isn’t turning out to be so great after all, because when I get out, AI is going to be doing my job instead of me.
SPEAKER 06 :
It’s very possible. And those other job paths are excellent job paths, too. And there’s a dearth of CPAs out there right now. And I would think some young kids that, and look, will AI step into some of that world? Sure. But I’ve talked to my CPA buddies, and I want to say that they’re saying the CPA world is understaffed by hundreds of thousands compared to what it should be. And it’s, I mean, that could be a, that’s a great career path for people, I would think. And my father-in-law, having owned a couple of body shops, I mean, before he sold them and retired, one of his complaints was, you know, we can’t find young people to come in.
SPEAKER 07 :
That’s right, not enough help.
SPEAKER 06 :
He said the schools have stopped teaching the trade businesses they used to teach in high school.
SPEAKER 07 :
He is correct.
SPEAKER 06 :
Because not every kid, my father-in-law, God bless him, he never finished high school. He’s like, this isn’t for me. I’m great with my hands. I’m good at working on cars, and I love it. And he had a great career. You know, he had two body shops and did well. Good for him. Yeah, yeah, but he took advantage of those opportunities that high school presented while he was still there to enhance his craft, so to speak.
SPEAKER 07 :
Mm-hmm. So, you know, really quick, along these lines, and I don’t know, this is one thing I didn’t study much of today, are, I mean, what’s the scuttlebutt on how long this might last as far as a shutdown is concerned?
SPEAKER 06 :
Well, so, yeah. So the guys that I’ve talked to and some of the policy analysis I’ve looked at, these people are very much in touch with people on Capitol Hill and the people on the different staffs. They’re talking about, I think the Republicans have a, not a Congress, a group gathering over the weekend in Sea Island, Georgia, maybe, something like that, that has been scheduled for months. And they think that coming out of that, there’s probably going to be an agreement, and you’re probably looking at a Monday-Tuesday type shutdown.
SPEAKER 07 :
Okay.
SPEAKER 06 :
Ending.
SPEAKER 07 :
Okay, so not that far.
SPEAKER 06 :
No, no, and that would put it around, what, like, Seven days.
SPEAKER 07 :
Yeah, roughly. Roughly. Yeah.
SPEAKER 06 :
So along those lines, so historically, the average shutdown. So they really shutdowns really started in 1980. There’s an attorney general named Benjamin Civilletti. He worked for the Carter administration, I believe. And he said that until Congress agreed on a spending bill. the federal government couldn’t operate. And so that’s what really started the process that became government shutdowns. But it wasn’t until a decade later, basically, this is from the research I’ve done. And if somebody thinks I’m wrong, they can tell me, but it wasn’t until like 1990 that that decision was actually strictly adhered to and funding gaps started to cause government shutdowns. So, I went back and did all the math from 1990 on. There’s been a total of one, two, three, four, five, six shutdowns. The last one happened at the end of 2018 going into 2019. But the average shutdown has lasted about 14 days. Now, there were a couple that happened over the course of a weekend. I didn’t count because that’s not really a shutdown. So basically what you’re looking at is the average return of the S&P 500 a year later is 21%. Wow. And that’s happened five out of six times the S&P 500 has gone up a year later. The average return for the S&P from 1928 to 2025 on an annual basis is 9.5%. So that’s more than double. For the NASDAQ, the average return is 26%.
SPEAKER 07 :
So then where does this narrative come in that it’s always bad for the stock market if it’s not? Because it’s not, from what you’re saying.
SPEAKER 06 :
It’s not at all. I mean, and for the small cap Russell 2000, the average return a year later is 15.5%. And that’s versus a typical like 10.4. And the NASDAQ, by the way, that 26% is versus a typical 10%. I don’t know where that narrative comes in. I’ve seen people cherry pick a couple of charts. that the one that shows up being negative here and there, but they don’t look at the data on a broader basis. And so they’re not, they’re not really presenting the whole story. And my fear is that it’s because they’re going for, you know, whatever works to get people the most worked up.
SPEAKER 07 :
Well, yeah, whatever the narrative is, that’s what they’re trying to promote.
SPEAKER 06 :
Yes. Yeah. And so they’re trying to get eyeballs. Yeah. And so that, That’s what’s happening. But, yeah, actually, it’s turned out very well for investors whenever the government shuts down. But just, you know, in terms of the average return while the shutdown happens for the S&P 500, it’s a little under 3%, similar for the NASDAQ and pretty much right on the money for the Russell 2000.
SPEAKER 07 :
In the market close today, I mean, everything ended up – it started slow, but it ended up up today. The Dow Jones, the S&P, the NASDAQ, the Russell, I mean, everything is up today. Nothing went down, proving your point.
SPEAKER 06 :
Yeah, so part of that is going into it, you get the whole, oh, my God, the economy is going to tank. This is going to get people worked up, you know, blah, blah, blah. And then what happens is like today, it already started to come out that, hey, both sides see a path toward fixing their differences and getting things done, getting the government back open again.
SPEAKER 07 :
And I guess the way I look at it is at the end of the day, if we’re somehow reducing government workforce, therefore saving money inside of government, whether it’s $100,000 or $300,000, at the end of the day, if there’s a payroll cut in government, as you know, that payroll cut can go to all sorts of other things that hopefully at the end of the day save us money, budgetarily speaking, which is good for the economy.
SPEAKER 06 :
Completely, and maybe you don’t have to borrow as much down the road, which brings down borrowing costs, which helps everybody in the country, because to raise money when you have to in the future, if you don’t have to borrow as much, you’re not going to be as charged as much on interest. Along those lines, by the way, there is still a narrative out there that foreign investors no longer want to invest in America. Over the last three months, the amount of foreign money flowing into U.S. Treasuries has hit a record high each month, just FYI. That’s U.S. Treasury data. I’m not making this up. People can go look it up. on their own. But that narrative has changed.
SPEAKER 07 :
So that’s another one that’s not, I mean, again, these narratives get pushed out there and, you know, often wonder, you know, how and why, although I don’t think I wonder too much. I think I know where a lot of these come from. Anything we can do to try to be naysayers in regards to who’s in office right now they’re going to do. And this whole idea that, oh, we’re, you know, we’re just not going to have the, we’re not going to have the outside investors that we once would. There’s no way we’re going to fund everything. We can’t get other countries to invest. Reality is they are.
SPEAKER 06 :
Reality is they are. Again, the money dipped at first, but ever since, it’s gone straight up. And it started to dip after April, the tariff announcement, but now it’s come way back. And like I said, for the last three months, it has made record highs. So foreign investors want to own U.S. treasuries.
SPEAKER 07 :
Yeah. And, you know, it’s funny because I talked to several folk, my son included, where it’s like, yeah, no matter what other countries are doing, as much as you may not like what happens here, even in the U.S., at the end of the day, we’re still the best deal going, period.
SPEAKER 06 :
I certainly think so. I mean, speaking for myself, if I had the option of living in China or living in Russia or living in the U.S. I think France, I have very fond memories of France, of having visited that country, but they’ve got an 85% tax rate. Do I want to go live in France? I don’t think so.
SPEAKER 07 :
No, no. Yeah, no. I mean, I can tell you the answer to that. No. In fact, I’ve traveled around, haven’t been to every country around the world, but I’ve been to a lot, Scott, and I will tell you that there’s not a single place that I’ve ever visited where I would say, you know what, I’d rather live here than home.
SPEAKER 06 :
You know what? Our system isn’t perfect, but it’s never been perfect. But as Americans, we figured out. And there are checks and balances in the government, and they swing one way or another. But I’ve got to tell you, our forefathers, when they designed the system, they did a pretty darn good job. And what they put together, I think it’s benefited a lot of people. And capitalism… has also benefited a lot of people. It’s a system that has worked far better than other systems all over the world.
SPEAKER 07 :
That’s right. Absolutely. Absolutely. All right, Scott, how do folks find you?
SPEAKER 06 :
Yeah, sure. Bent Pine Capital. You can check me out on Twitter, LinkedIn, or Substack under C. Scott Garlis.
SPEAKER 07 :
Always a joy, Scott. Appreciate your time. Appreciate you taking it for us.
SPEAKER 06 :
Oh, anytime, John. Thanks so much for your time. All right, man.
SPEAKER 07 :
Have a great night. Appreciate you very much. Let’s do this. Golden Eagle Financial coming up next. And again, if you’re looking for somebody that will help you on a direct basis, you can sit down and have a conversation. That is exactly what Al Smith will do. Golden Eagle Financial. Find him at klzradio.com.
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SPEAKER 03 :
This isn’t rage radio. This is real, relatable radio. Back to Rush to Reason.
SPEAKER 07 :
All right, one article that I read this morning I wanted to finish up on because this one comes up quite a bit on not only this program but my Saturday program, Drive Radio. The Colorado Department of Transportation, CDOT, has officially, now they’ve, I guess, unofficially or they’ve had videos out on this in the past when it comes to zipper merging, but they have officially announced that they support the zipper merge, updating its standards on September the 22nd. The zipper merge asks drivers to use both lanes up to the point where the lanes come together, then take turns merging like the teeth of a zipper. San Lee, a CDOT traffic engineer, says the approach makes fuller use of available roadway capacity, smooth speeds, and creates a safer environment for both motorists and workers. Use both lanes, Lee said. Look over, make sure you merge in safely, use the capacity of both lanes all the way up to the merge point. In fact, what they’re going to start doing now is putting up more signs and try to do some more awareness through commercials and so on to make people realize that zipper merging is the correct way to do it. For those of you listening, most of my listeners already know this. But pass this along. If you know somebody that doesn’t zipper merge, in other words, and I see this happen all the time, you see where there’s a construction or it’s just a natural merge lane that’s going to end. And you constantly see people not getting into that lane, in fact, purposely getting out of that lane. And these are the people that really drive me nuts. They’ll stop in that lane, block all the traffic that wants to go all the way up and zip or merge because they’re going to give the 100 yards or more in some cases. necessary to merge in now. I don’t know why. I guess they’re fearful that they can’t merge into that zipper end of things, so they feel like they need to go ahead and stop traffic and merge in way back when they don’t need to. Those people drive me nuts, by the way. That is one of my biggest pet peeves. It’s like you’ve got the rest of the lane all the way up to the front of the line, which is what you’re supposed to do, But a half a mile back, quarter mile back, eighth of a mile back, whatever it is, they’ll decide that they need to stop fully and then get into the other lane, all the while stopping traffic in doing so. And then, of course, as you all know, when one does it, then another does it and another does it. And my point is CDOT now – is going to try to get rid of some of those lengthy backups as much as they possibly can. Zipper merging, by the way, reduces that, according to this traffic engineer, 40%.
SPEAKER 1 :
40%.
SPEAKER 07 :
So the key now is going to get people to realize that zipper merging is not cutting in line. It is correct way to drive. It’s the safe way to drive. And what we now need to do is try to get this message out to more people that that’s how it’s supposed to work. And here’s my thought. if you don’t like zipper merging and you can see one’s coming up way in the distance then you know what get in one of the other two lanes stay out of the other lane let the people that want to zipper merge and know how to zipper merge do it correctly but here’s the thing when you’re in line and you’re at that point where somebody needs to get you know it’s every other car is how it’s supposed to work if you’re going to do what i just said then be aware that you need to allow that room to let those other people in, and they’re not cutting in line. They’re doing it exactly the way they’re supposed to. They’re the smart drivers. They’re the savvy drivers. And, again, I think some people just feel like, well, I don’t want to be that rude person cutting in line. You’re not. You’re doing it exactly the way traffic engineers, and in this case now CDOT, is saying to do. And it’s funny. Kenny Martinez, a Denver resident who frequently drives down York Street on his way to Denver Tech Center, was unaware of the zipper merging policy and how it can improve the flow of traffic. Not knowing the policy, absolutely thought it would be inappropriate to just get in line. Martinez said, if it were common knowledge, I feel like it would be appropriate to utilize both lanes all the way up to the merging point. CDOT is attempting to make the zipper merge common knowledge. They already have signs at the entrances to Interstate 25 from 6th Avenue telling drivers to use both lanes in congestions and to take turns, form a lane, so on and so forth. Again, More education is going to be necessary for people to understand that this isn’t okay. In fact, it’s not just okay. It is the proper way to drive. You need to be doing this. You’re not blocking anybody. You’re not cutting in line. You’re not being a jerk in the way that you drive. You’re actually doing it the way that you’re supposed to. So here’s my recommendation to all of you as listeners. Spread the word. We already have enough traffic problems in this Denver metro area. You guys all know that. We need more lane miles. We’re not going to get more lane miles, so we’ve got to utilize whatever we have right now. So this is one of those ways to make traffic flow better. And literally, I see every single day, because there are several places I drive where there are places where you can zipper merge. They’re by design, by the way. And I will tell you, the vast majority of drivers won’t use them. For example, there’s a zipper merge at I-70 heading west at about Kipling. And nobody will zip or merge that left lane. They’ll even say lane ends in a thousand feet, thousand feet. OK, roughly a quarter mile, not quite a quarter mile, but pretty close to it. And I will tell you how many people will automatically get over at the sign that says there’s a thousand feet of this lane left. And yet they move over. It’s like you can drive all the way to the end, folks, and zip or merge in. That’s how this is designed. But they won’t do it. And by the way, the worst day for that particular end of things, that particular part of traffic, is on Saturdays when I go home from the station. Because a lot of people this time of year, they’re going up to see fall colors and ski season starts and so on. So Saturdays in that particular area, it’s the worst day for that particular end of things, that particular lane. And rarely does anybody drive all the way to the end. I do. I stay in the left lane, drive all the way to the end. I merge in. There’s always somebody to sleep at the wheel, by the way, so it’s never a big deal getting pulled into traffic. But I cannot tell you how many people will not use that lane. As soon as they see the sign that says 1,000 feet left, they’re merging in at that point. And in a lot of cases, they stop, literally stop on the highway. Block traffic so they can merge in where they can keep traffic flowing by going all the way to the end. So please pass this along. Let people know that zipper merging is the correct way to drive. And CDOT is now going to advertise that. They’ve talked about it now for several years, but they now have made official statements. They’re making it a part of their ad campaigns. They want people to zipper merge. So please pass that along. Veteran Windows and Doors. One thing to pass along as well is cut out that middleman. That’s exactly what Veteran Windows and Doors does. Dave cuts out the middleman, takes that window and door directly to you, right from the manufacturer, Provia, straight to you. That’s the way it works. And he cuts out the middleman, saving you money along the way. Give him a call today. Find him at klzradio.com.
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SPEAKER 03 :
Suck it up, buttercup. Back to Rush to Reason.
SPEAKER 07 :
All right, a couple more stories that I didn’t get to today that I will try to get to tomorrow is there was some news out on what manufacturers are going to do in regards to EVs because they know that sales are automatically going to drop now that the federal credit has ended. If I get time tomorrow, I should be able to talk about that. I’ve got a lot of great guests lined up for tomorrow as well. Steve House will be with me during Hour 1, so stay tuned for that. Have a great night, though. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560.
SPEAKER 1 :
Thank you.
