Join John Rush as he navigates the murky waters of economic debate, dissecting prevalent myths and bringing clarity to confusing narratives. With contributions from expert guest Scott Garlis, the episode explores how market trends, employment tactics, and media influence shape the world we live in. Dive into a discussion on inflation, federal employment, and taxation, enriched with sharp wit and critical analysis—a must-listen for those looking to understand the hidden forces at play within our economy.
SPEAKER 07 :
This is Rush to Reason.
SPEAKER 06 :
You are going to shut your damn yapper and listen for a change because I got you pegged, sweetheart. You want to take the easy way out because you’re scared. And you’re scared because if you try and fail, there’s only you to blame. Let me break this down for you. Life is scary. Get used to it. There are no magical fixes.
SPEAKER 07 :
With your host, John Rush.
SPEAKER 13 :
My advice to you is to do what your parents did. Get a job done. You haven’t made everybody equal. You’ve made them the same, and there’s a big difference.
SPEAKER 14 :
Let me tell you why you’re here. You’re here because you know something. What you know you can’t explain, but you feel it. You’ve felt it your entire life, that there’s something wrong with the world. You don’t know what it is, but it’s there. It is this feeling that has brought you to me.
SPEAKER 07 :
Are you crazy? Am I? Or am I so sane that you just blew your mind?
SPEAKER 16 :
It’s Rush to Reason with your host, John Rush.
SPEAKER 17 :
All right, hour three, Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ. 560, and we are supposed to have a guest joining us now, and if we get a hold of her, great. If not, we will continue to move on. Scott Garlis should be joining us at the 530 mark. We’ll get an update on not only the markets, but just tariffs and interest rates and things along those lines. Scott’s always good on the inside of giving us good information, I should say, from the inside of all of that. I’ve got an article, though, that I read the other day, and I titled this More Fear Porn. Now, that’s not the title of the actual article because this is an opinion piece out of the Colorado Sun, and I talk about Trish Zornio on a pretty routine basis because Trish is a complete lunatic lefty. Sorry, she is. And this is her opinion piece. Inflation is up. People are fired. Stocks are down. Are we great again yet? Small businesses in the middle class are struggling under Trump, but the billionaires are getting richer. Again, this is 100% fear porn. None of those statements, none of those statements are true, and some of them might be barely partially true. I mean, are people getting fired? Well, people are always getting fired. Trish, duh. You know, people that don’t do their job correctly get fired. How hard is that? Just because you have a job in a federal agency doesn’t mean you should keep said job forever just because it’s there. No, if you’re not performing and you’re not doing your job well and you shouldn’t be there, then you shouldn’t be there any longer than you can. How hard is this? But see, that’s not how the left looks. I go back to last hour talking about the mental illness that is the left. They feel like, oh, just because that person has that job and there’s been money earmarked for said job, even though that money doesn’t exist and we’re borrowing said money, that person should keep their job no matter what. That’s how the left would rationalize that, which, again, proves my point that they’re mentally ill because that’s not a rational thought. When you’re borrowing money and then earmarking it for something, and that said something is no longer valid and no longer necessary and or fraudulent and or money laundering, I can go down the list, then that should be canceled. And if there are people working in that particular area, so what? Their job is eliminated. Yes, they’re fired. But Trish makes it look like, you know, Trump’s just running around firing people, therefore affecting the markets and affecting the economy and, and, and. And this is how a mentally ill person thinks. Unfortunately, we have a lot of mentally ill people that have influence. In this case, she’s a writer and she writes for one of the mentally ill publications in town called The Colorado Sun. and continues to vomit these sorts of things out to the public on a regular basis. It’s been mere weeks since Donald Trump took office. I’m going to now read from her article. So far, inflation has risen 3%. We’re going to talk to Scott Garlis here at 530, because the fact of the matter is, no, Trish, it hasn’t. The price of eggs… Which, by the way, I think that’s grammatically incorrect, Charlie, if I’m not mistaken. The price of eggs is up. The price of an egg is up, but the price of eggs are up. I’m not much of a grammar expert, but I got that one right. And predicted to rise another 41%, which, again, really quick, just a little history here. Egg prices have nothing to do with Donald Trump. He did not create the egg price problem we have. I’m not going to try to digress too much here because I wanted to get to the rest of this article. But the egg pricing, I’ve never talked about this. And I’ve done some studying on and actually did some things on this while I was on vacation. Where some of the egg price increases have come from, by the way, is not only because of, quote, unquote, bird flu and the destruction by government of X amount of birds. In some cases, and I’m not lying when I say this, in some cases there is more than enough supply of eggs. And it’s very well known that those suppliers… are still raising prices to meet what the market is, even though they have a great supply of eggs. In other words, they’re just following along with whatever the market trends are, whether there’s a shortage or not. In other words, because they can, they are. It has nothing to do with whether or not there’s enough eggs or not now, which is how the free market works. there are individuals out there that are looking at that that are saying, okay, wait a minute, if the price of eggs are up that high, why don’t I just go buy more chickens? And I will cut prices on eggs and therefore take over a percentage of said market. And the guys that are keeping their prices up because they can may very well not be selling as much product as they once were. And they may end up getting hurt when it’s all said and done. And by the way, folks, that’s how the free market is supposed to work. And something nobody ever talks about either is you realize that A chick just born can lay eggs in about six to eight weeks. Doesn’t take that long. In fact, most of the chicken that you eat, those particular birds probably aren’t more than about 12 weeks old. So my point is this chicken thing, this egg thing will cure itself fairly quickly. In fact, get government out of it, which is what they did in the first place by destroying a certain amount of birds over something they didn’t need to in the first place. But that’s government for you. They created the high egg prices. That wasn’t done by Donald Trump. So a little lesson for you, Trish, which if you listen to my program, you might actually learn something every now and again because this one you’ve got completely wrong. But once again, because you want to drive fear, and it’s fear porn, you want to drive that into the – minds of others this is what you write so then she says are we great again an estimated uh 30 000 workers were immediately fired again i explained that a moment ago yeah if you’re useless and you’re working inside the federal government and you’ve heard me say this before there’s 2.4 million federal workers and we get by with probably a third of that and i don’t think i’m exaggerating Meaning, we could literally fire, oh, what, could we fire off about, I don’t know, 2 million of those? Million eight? And be just fine? National parks are cutting access and services. Okay, so what? American farmers are losing millions of dollars. Well, again, there’s always more to the farmer story because I know a lot of farmers. I’ve even consulted with a lot of farmers. And farmers lose money, make money, lose money, make money. It’s the story of a farmer. That happens on a regular basis. Trillions in grant funding. And assistant programs are frozen, cut or delayed. Yeah, thank you. Good, they should be. If they’re not legit, if it’s a money laundering operation, if it’s not needed, again, Trish, we are a country that is $36.5 trillion in debt, and you’re sniveling and whining about grant funding being cut? Sorry, Trish, you need a dose of reality. If your own family were in that much debt… and were having a hard time paying their bills, you were having a hard time paying your bills, I should say, would you be handing out grant money? I guarantee you, Trish, if you were sitting in studio today talking to me, you would have an automatic no. Actually, no. From a Democrat, it would be a, well, well, but, well, but, well, but. That’s what they would come back and say. Again, these are mentally ill people that we’re dealing with on a routine basis, folks. I don’t know any other way to say it. How else could you print… You’ll publish things like this if you didn’t have a screw loose. Are we great again? Yes, she says. Small businesses and nonprofits are struggling. Well, you know, not all small businesses are struggling, to be honest with you. In fact, I’ll put a plug in for myself. The businesses that I coach aren’t struggling. They’re doing just fine. They’re making money. I mean, does every small business have ups and downs? Of course they do. But are they out of business? No. Your nonprofits are struggling. Okay, if a nonprofit is struggling, that’s on them. Trish, first of all, small business and nonprofits shouldn’t be in the same sentence because they’re not one and the same. A small business works off of revenue. They collect it. They have expenses. They pay taxes on the profits, and off they go. They’re creating it. Usually, always, they’re selling a product or a service. That’s what businesses do. Nonprofits, on the other hand, can do all sorts of things. That’s why they’re called nonprofits. They can serve the community in one way or the other. They can be a, you know, most of them are a 501c3 where they’re out raising money and getting donations and so on. And by the way, if those are down and they’re struggling, that’s on them. So to stay solvent amid voided contracts. So she’s talking about how small businesses and nonprofits are struggling because of the voided contracts. Well, again, if I were consulting these businesses and even these nonprofits, if you’re relying only on federal money coming into your business through some sort of a contract and that’s what’s keeping your business afloat, shame on you. Shame on you. Poor business decision. And frankly, you deserve to go out of business if this in fact happens. Workers’ rights are being repealed. No, actually, they’re not. No law has changed when it comes to worker rights. Google’s co-founder thinks Americans should work 12-hour days. Well, that’s a new one, and good luck on that. By the way, I have worked 10 to 12-hour days most of my life, so it’s not the end of the world, by the way. Diversity, equity, and inclusion programs are being tossed out. Thank God. impacting those in rural areas and millions of others. I’m not sure where the DEI and rural areas comes into play in the same paragraph. Trump’s own supporters are feeling the pinch. Well, not all. Some may. It’s called the economy. And the problem with most people, there’s never a backup plan. There’s never a what if. Now, I get it. There’s even books written on the fact that you shouldn’t have a what if plan because you can always go back and rely on that. Well, that may be what some people write about and maybe what they think. I disagree with that. I think you can still have great goals and plans and have a backup plan, a safety valve just in case. And I don’t think there’s anything wrong with that. And frankly, I think that’s very prudent to do. Does that mean that you’re going to always rely on the safety valve? Not if you’re diligent, not if you set the right goals, not if you’re doing things correctly. But to have a safety valve or a backup plan, nothing wrong with that whatsoever. So that’s where I and some of the folks out there that are these quote-unquote hired speakers, that’s where I and them would differ. All right, I’ve got to take a break. We’re running out of time here. If I don’t get going here, Flesh Law is coming up next. Civil, criminal, whatever it happens to be, Flesh Law is there for you. Kevin Flesh, give him a call today, 303-806-8886.
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SPEAKER 17 :
We are back. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. Dan and Blackhawk, go ahead.
SPEAKER 04 :
Hey, so a couple things. I had chickens. I no longer have them, but laying chickens takes six months, up to six months to lay eggs. Feeders are ready for market in six to eight weeks. So, okay, so there’s that. Now, I was calling, actually I called before. I was coming down the mountain for some reason. The radio was off. Going out when, what’s her name from? Yes.
SPEAKER 17 :
Sonny.
SPEAKER 04 :
Talking about the IRS. Yeah, I didn’t catch what she was saying.
SPEAKER 17 :
Basically, the IRS has some rulings and wording in their own documentation that basically says if they don’t agree with a particular ruling, so what?
SPEAKER 04 :
Okay, and the people that can challenge that, probably don’t have the money to challenge it, so they would have to go what’s called in front of the tax court, and only tax attorneys can practice before the tax court. There are some CPAs that can do that, but it takes an act of God in order to do that.
SPEAKER 17 :
Interesting.
SPEAKER 04 :
Yeah, so there’s the Internal Revenue Manual that you’d have to watch, and you can challenge people on that. Years of the IRS not caring for the taxpaying public. They’re just going to do what they want to do.
SPEAKER 17 :
I would agree with you. And along those lines, since you’re in that whole world, one of the questions I’ve got right now, because I keep thinking through this, is with some of the cuts and things that are happening, Doge, there’s claims that X amount of tax workers, IRS workers have been fired, laid off, whatever. What do you see happening in that world, Dan? Are things going to improve, get worse? Are we going to see more audits, less audits? What are your thoughts there?
SPEAKER 04 :
I think if Trump is able to implement what he wants to do, I think the IRS is going to be more responsive to the American taxpayer. As for audits, technology is going to allow them to start doing more work review of tax returns and be able to just like Elon Musk, you know how bright and smart he is coming up with those algorithms. If he gets into the IRS and or they get the algorithms going on the IRS, they’re going to be able to audit tax returns and focus in on people that are not being honest on their taxes.
SPEAKER 17 :
Makes sense.
SPEAKER 04 :
So, you know, so I think that’s where they need to go. What they’ve done on audits is they take, and I don’t know what the percentage is, but they take the top taxpayers and then they review them because, you know, more bang for the buck.
SPEAKER 03 :
Right, right, right.
SPEAKER 04 :
If you have a Joe Smoe like us, we’re less likely to be audited because they’re not going to waste their time on it. Now, if we do stupid stuff, of course they’re going to audit us. But I think Biden wanted to have, what, the 86,000 IRS agents or whatever so that they could make more money to fund all the programs they wanted to do. And I don’t think that’s going to happen.
SPEAKER 17 :
Good. I’m fine with that. I mean, you know me, Dan. I’m all for everybody paying their fair share. And the fact of the matter is we’ve got a lot of Americans, taxpayers, literally, well, they’re not net taxpayers. They’re net tax receivers because, as you know, a small percentage of the population pays the majority of taxes in this country. I lost you. Come on back down. Say that again. You broke up. As I was ending, you broke up. Say that again.
SPEAKER 04 :
Yeah. I said the majority of taxes paid in the United States are paid by the top tier earners in the nation, regardless of what they want to say. Correct. I mean, they pay probably 80% of the taxes. And the Democrats, and this is another lie, the Democrats were going to tax the wretch. They’re already taxed.
SPEAKER 17 :
They already are.
SPEAKER 04 :
You cannot believe.
SPEAKER 17 :
Thank you.
SPEAKER 04 :
Yep. Yeah, so I got a return right now where how much money the people made, they owe, well, they paid $50,000 in taxes last year.
SPEAKER 03 :
Wow.
SPEAKER 04 :
That’s more than a lot of people make, the majority of Americans make. They paid more. I’ve seen people pay more in taxes than the majority of Americans make in income per year.
SPEAKER 17 :
Yep.
SPEAKER 04 :
So that lie that we’re going to tax the rich is a lie. Because they’re already taxed out the yin-yang.
SPEAKER 17 :
You are spot on. And that is something that, frankly, I wish more of our side were financially astute, I guess that’s the word I’m looking for, Dan, to where they could talk about that better than they currently do, because that narrative needs change, because the reality is the left has pushed that so hard that the average man on the street believes that garbage, and it is just that, absolute garbage.
SPEAKER 04 :
Yeah, because I do everything that I possibly can to lower their tax bill, but when you get to a certain income level, a lot of the strategies and a lot of the things that I can do for them go away. So, I mean, you can do things. You can do different investments and stuff like that, but that’s the thing. You’re investing.
SPEAKER 03 :
Right.
SPEAKER 04 :
into things to make America better, which ends up generating more tax in the long run. Which is a good thing.
SPEAKER 17 :
Exactly. That’s a good thing. Well, it’s like, Dan, the left will get critical of some of the tax code we’ve got to where if a business owner decides at the end of the year he wants to use some accelerated depreciation to lower his overall tax tax burden. They’re always upset with that because, you know, if, for example, a company has made a net profit of, we’ll just use round numbers, of $100,000, but they go out and buy the right vehicle and they can accelerate that depreciation. They could get a $50,000 deduction in that same year, lowering their tax liability to $50,000 instead of $100,000. A lot of the lefties will say, well, that’s just tax cheating. No, that’s the code. You’re doing it exactly the way that it was designed. And by the way, it was designed because of what you just said a moment ago, Dan. How many workers and how many people with that new truck purchase that was just made, are then going to go on and pay taxes and do other things when it’s all said and done? And how much other revenue, by the way, will that particular owner now create with that item that he just bought? So in the end, nobody’s losing, we’re all gaining.
SPEAKER 04 :
Yeah, exactly. So they, yeah.
SPEAKER 17 :
But, Dan, they would make that sound like that owner’s getting some sort of a great cush deal when it’s all said and done, and what they don’t understand is, well, on the same token, too, Dan, you know this as an accountant, he gets it all in one year, but the reality is he doesn’t get it the next four years like he normally would have if he’d have done it over a five-year period.
SPEAKER 04 :
Correct. So do you want to lower your tax liability this year, or do you want to have a lower – You know, take the depreciation, which is going to lower your income, but not as much.
SPEAKER 03 :
Right.
SPEAKER 04 :
But you’re going to be able to take that benefit for the next, what, four or five years. That’s right. I don’t, you know, so it’s.
SPEAKER 17 :
You know, and really quick, you know, as an owner, you know what my motto is? I’m going to handle this year, this year, and I’ll worry about next year, next year, because, Dan, I could be dead.
SPEAKER 04 :
Yeah, exactly.
SPEAKER 17 :
That’s how I look at it. And maybe that is the wrong way, but that’s exactly how I look at it. I’m going to worry about this year, this year, next year, next year, and I might be dead then.
SPEAKER 04 :
Yeah, well, you’ve got to plan and strategize.
SPEAKER 17 :
I agree.
SPEAKER 04 :
That’s just the thing. And most Americans don’t do that.
SPEAKER 17 :
Don’t. No, you are correct.
SPEAKER 04 :
They do not. They live for the here and now. And it’s like, if you do this, you’re going to reap the benefits. further down the road, but most of them don’t want to do that.
SPEAKER 17 :
That’s right.
SPEAKER 04 :
They want to live for the near and now. That’s right.
SPEAKER 17 :
You’re correct. Dan, always a joy talking to you, man. Have a great night. Thank you so much for your wisdom. I do appreciate that greatly. Roof Savers of Colorado coming up next. Dave Hart wants to help you with not only your roofing needs on your residential house, but he can help with your building, commercial, you name it, barns, whatever. If it’s got a roof, Dave can take care of you. 303-710-6916.
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SPEAKER 17 :
And we are back. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. Scott Garlis joining us now. Scott, how are you? Hey, stranger, how are you? I’m good. Good to talk to you. Lots going on. Let’s start with, we can go around the world here in a minute, but let’s start here at home. Tariffs, I know that’s always a big deal. You and I have talked about this. Globalists hate it. Of course, other countries hate it. And there’s always a debate sometimes even internally among conservatives as to whether they’re the right thing to do, not the right thing to do. Bottom line is they typically shake things up.
SPEAKER 05 :
Yeah, I mean, for me, I’m not as worried so much about the China stuff in particular.
SPEAKER 17 :
Me neither.
SPEAKER 05 :
And so if China wants to slap tariffs back on us, I think it’ll work out fine. I mean, China’s economy is struggling. China doesn’t want this.
SPEAKER 17 :
They’re in a world of hurt anyways. They don’t need this.
SPEAKER 05 :
That’s right. And look, on the Mexico… Canada stuff, it’s not ideal. But I think there are other goals here that Trump is trying to establish. And Trump is trying to, one, I think he’s trying to drive more manufacturing business back into the United States. Agreed.
SPEAKER 17 :
And by the way, some of that’s working. I mean, you look at what’s happening in regards to, you know, cars in Mexico and Canada, and then Honda comes out here literally just this week and said, you know, we were going to do this, but now we’re going to do that, and they’re going to build a plant in Indiana.
SPEAKER 05 :
Yeah, exactly. And so I think Trump is also, you know, he’s going after the countries in particular that have the biggest trade gaps with the U.S., ones that have the biggest surpluses, and he’s just saying, hey, let’s, Let’s level the playing field out here a bit. Let’s make sure this is a two-way street, not a one-way street. And so I get that. As a matter of fact, the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, spoke before the British Parliament today, and he actually caught out China and Germany, because China and Germany both have big trade surpluses with the U.K., and he said that’s not healthy from a long-term perspective. And he said we should spend more time looking into that and resolving that situation ourselves, which, you know, I also thought that was interesting.
SPEAKER 17 :
Yeah, very.
SPEAKER 05 :
So it doesn’t, I mean, it’s a tough pill to swallow up front, typically.
SPEAKER 17 :
Nobody likes to hear it.
SPEAKER 05 :
No, and nobody likes to go through it when it’s happening, just like nobody liked to go through the rate hikes when they were happening. But I think longer term, it’s, It’s something that makes the economy more stable and more sound down the road.
SPEAKER 17 :
I agree. I agree with you. And I am always one where, again, a lot of globalists especially, a lot of news media, and frankly most news media can’t balance their own checkbooks. I’m not sure how much of those… How much of those guys we should really listen to in the first place. But they’ll all be alarmed about this. It’s going to do this. It’s going to do that. It’s going to raise prices, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And, yeah, in some cases that might raise prices slightly, although I do think, you know, for example, Scott, this is one I’ve never been able to figure out anyways. We as a country. should not be buying a dime of power from Canada. That has to be one of the most ludicrous things I’ve ever heard in my entire life. Fix that. Cut the dang wires if you have to. Stop buying that electricity from Canada and make our own.
SPEAKER 05 :
I would agree with that. Yeah, I saw that it was the one province that he said the governor said he’s going to cut off power they’re selling to America. Correct. Do you remember? Yeah, I just can’t remember what province it is. Yeah, but I agree with you.
SPEAKER 17 :
I think it’s Ontario, is it not? Oh, I always forget the guy’s name, the Canadian premier. I’ll think of it here in a second.
SPEAKER 05 :
Yeah, but I agree with you. I thought that was absurd when I saw it. I’m like, how is the world’s biggest economic power?
SPEAKER 17 :
Sorry, Doug Ford, Ontario.
SPEAKER 05 :
Okay. But it was like, how is the world’s biggest economic power not able to provide energy for all of its own citizens? It doesn’t make sense to me.
SPEAKER 17 :
Well, you know, and a lot of that’s our own stupidity, Scott. You know, we’ve allowed the greeny less to shut down coal plants, shut down natural gas plants, shut down nuclear plants. By the way, we’re starting to revive some of those things, you know, as we speak. But why we allowed some of that to happen in the first place was our own fault. We never should have.
SPEAKER 05 :
Dumb. That’s correct.
SPEAKER 17 :
So anyways, I’m one where it’s like, okay, if we got to go through a little bit of a pain to bring some of those back online, which from my understanding, Scott, we have got some that don’t take much to get back online, fast track some of these things. And then, oh, by the way, let’s fast track the building of some new plants and even some new nuclear and off we go.
SPEAKER 05 :
Yeah, you know, on the flip side of this too, you know, what’s really made all the news headlines. So my wife watches the Today Show every day. She’s watched it for years and just She leaves on NBC, and it drives me crazy sometimes.
SPEAKER 17 :
I was going to say, I’m sorry.
SPEAKER 05 :
Yeah. Some of the messages that come across there, I’m like, you know, they’re not telling you the whole side of the story. And she’s like, I don’t care. It’s just the news. And I’m like, all right. But one of the interesting things, they’ve covered this, man, what’s going to happen with energy because of what’s going on with the reciprocal tariffs with China and They’re not going to buy energy from the U.S. And we’ve talked about this before. It’s a really minuscule part of what China buys, and it’s a minuscule part of what we sell. But the flip side of everything going on with Trump right now, OPEC is now saying for years they’ve been cutting back or delaying ramping up oil production. Now they’re going to ramp up oil production. And so oil prices are starting to fall.
SPEAKER 17 :
Yeah, $66 right now. Yeah, and by the way, did not you and I, I’m going to go back here, about a month ago or so, once we realized that the inauguration was over and so on, didn’t both you and I say that by now we’d be in about the mid-60s?
SPEAKER 05 :
Yes, yes. And so what people are saying is it’s not because of OPEC. They won’t talk about OPEC ramping oil prices. All they’ll say is, oh, my God, everybody’s scared of what’s going to happen economically. Everything’s going to fall apart. So oil prices are tanking. That’s not the case at all. Because if you look at natural gas, natural gas prices are actually going back up suddenly because Trump is saying, hey, look, we’re going to fire back up natural gas and coal.
SPEAKER 17 :
That’s right. We’re going to use it here locally. We’re going to export it as well. Bottom line, you know, he wants to see a boom in that and I think the other thing, too, that makes oil prices come down, and we talked about this even when Biden took over and knocked out the Keystone Pipeline, the reality is when you’ve got an oil-friendly president and you know production is going to continue to increase because R&D will as well, bottom line, Scott, prices come down.
SPEAKER 05 :
Yes, that’s right. That’s exactly right.
SPEAKER 17 :
And by the way, why economists that are actually smarter than me can’t figure that out is beyond me.
SPEAKER 05 :
I’m with you there, man. There’s this one guy that he worked at S&P Global, or maybe he still works at S&P Global, Zandi, maybe his name, Mark Zandi. He gets touted all over the place as an economic expert, and they put him on all sorts of things, and he claims he did work for George Bush. If you go back and dig into the story, they asked him to produce some data charts, but It’s interesting to me because he is very one-way in his views on everything. He’s very left-leaning. So whenever you see this guy get on TV and speak, I can’t listen to him because if he were one way or the other way, it would make it tough. He doesn’t give himself any credibility. I agree. But if Mark Zandi’s the guy saying this stuff, don’t listen. That’s right. It’s a waste of time. Sorry.
SPEAKER 17 :
Before we move on to kind of what’s happening worldwide, because I think this is really important, I want to get your thoughts. I’ve been thinking about this for the last couple of weeks since we talked. And here is my thoughts, economically speaking. Sure. Number one, Jerome Powell and Donald Trump don’t click. Even though he was installed by, you know, Jerome Powell was installed by Donald Trump, they still don’t click. They don’t see eye to eye. In fact, I would tell you they’re probably bitter enemies when it’s all said and done. So given that’s the fact, and it is. I look at, number one, Fed’s not going to do anything to help Donald Trump with the economy. So what Donald Trump has figured out – and I think you knew this coming in – is, listen, they’re going to be no friend of mine. In fact, they’re going to be foe. They’re going to do everything they possibly can to work against me, to work against my policies and so on. So what I feel, Scott, that Donald Trump and the administration is doing is they are working around the Fed – They are figuring out ways to stimulate the economy and make things happen in spite of the Fed. And my feeling is he will actually accomplish that. The Fed will then, because of that lower rates, because I think you and I have kind of talked about this in regards to the Fed and their ego and so on, they’re not going to be left out in the cold. They don’t want anybody to be, you know, undervalued. one-upping them, if you would, so they’re not going to want to give Donald Trump that feather in his cap. So in turn, they will go ahead and lower rates and do some things along those lines because they’re not going to want to be left out in the cold. What are your thoughts?
SPEAKER 05 :
I’ll take it one step further. Priming that pump, it’s going to require some pain. And so in the next six to eight months, we could see a little bit of economic pain as we see measures go into place to drive more business and more economic growth here. I mean, they talked about this, how they want to put more of what happens here economically in the hands of private industry because it’s more sustainable, and take sort of spending hiring power out of the federal government. And, you know, because I look at when the government gets too much control of the spending, the hiring, you know, I look at Greece, and we’re not even close to what Greece did, but You know, when all the money’s coming in from money you’re handing out, how’s your tax revenue? You’re just digging yourself a deeper and deeper hole.
SPEAKER 17 :
Yeah, you’re basically, in our case, you’re borrowing money to pay federal workers to then pay taxes that you hope is going to fill back up the coffer, but the reality is it doesn’t work that way because you still initially borrowed to make that happen.
SPEAKER 05 :
It’s exactly right, and that’s what Greece did, and that’s why Greece had all those problems. We do not even want to go there.
SPEAKER 17 :
Well, and frankly, I think what Donald Trump’s doing in relation to federal spending, cutting things back, getting rid of federal workers, literally cutting the fat, and there’s a whole lot more that can be done, Scott. That is one way, and he even talked about it last night in his speech. Getting rid of some of those things, getting rid of some of that fat, will automatically help not only interest rates come down, but get the economy jump-started again.
SPEAKER 05 :
Yeah, well, that’s right. And so one of the other parts of this puzzle that people don’t seem to pay attention to, but is really important, is a lot of the comments that Scott Besant’s been making. And Trump has said some of this stuff, too, where Trump has said, hey, we’re really focused on making things better for Main Street right now. Hey, Wall Street, you’ve done well, but we’ve got to make sure these other guys do. Otherwise, the gap, the wealth gap, really blows wide open. And so But Sen and Trump are really trying to get the yield on 10-year bonds down, or 10-year treasuries down. We’ve talked about this a bunch, because that’s the benchmark for all sorts of loans that are out there.
SPEAKER 17 :
Mortgages especially.
SPEAKER 05 :
Yes, and so they don’t need the Fed to do that. I mean, if you go through and look at the weekly borrowing that’s happening from the Treasury, you can go to treasurydirect.gov, look at the weekly auctions. I go in and look at them every week. Those numbers keep coming down. In other words, they’re borrowing less and less every week. So as they borrow less, that means yields don’t have to go up as much. If you’re borrowing more, like we saw the last four years.
SPEAKER 17 :
You have to incentivize people to buy them.
SPEAKER 05 :
Yeah, exactly. And how do you incentivize people to buy them?
SPEAKER 17 :
Give them a better rate. That’s right.
SPEAKER 05 :
Yeah. So if you’ve got to borrow less, people aren’t going to be incentivized to hold out for higher rates.
SPEAKER 17 :
So in other words, you agree with me that Donald Trump doesn’t necessarily need the Fed to lower rates to get things back on track, especially when it comes to mortgage rates and things along those lines. He’s going to work around the Fed.
SPEAKER 05 :
Yes, they’re already pulling those levers. They see what they are. The Senate is doing it. I mean, that’s part of reducing the fat in the federal government. Because, again, if you have less people there to pay, you’ve got to borrow less, and that’s why they’re trying to sell real estate, do everything they can on that front to get borrowing down.
SPEAKER 17 :
Makes sense. Okay, before we run out of time, talk to us about the world economy, what’s happening, not only China, Germany, other places.
SPEAKER 05 :
Yeah, well, the really big thing I wanted to highlight is actually what is going on in Germany with it. So the new government hasn’t been formed yet. They’re getting closer. There was a recent election. But the guys who won and the guys who look like they’re going to form a party with have just made a huge move. They have an agreement to remove a debt break on borrowing and spending by the German government. Now, what that is is they’re limited to, like, 60% of GDP. But they’re doing this. because Trump is making them pay more for defense and other things. And so these guys are doing it to pick up more of their defense bill as part of NATO, to defend Europe against Russia or whomever else, and also to try to spur the German economy. And it’s basically, I think what’s going on here, like you go back to the financial crisis, the U.S. Federal Reserve had to bail out the ECB, the European Central Bank. They would have had a lot of problems if we hadn’t. And then if you go back and look at COVID, basically nobody else in the world spent anywhere near the money that the U.S. did on helping the economy recover. They all banked on the U.S. doing it. And so I think the Trump admin is looking at that saying, hey, guys, you’ve got to start taking care of yourselves more. It’s not on us for everything. And so the fact that Germany is doing this, Europe’s biggest economy, is a telltale sign that the rest of Europe is probably going to wake up and start doing the same.
SPEAKER 17 :
Interesting. So in the end, make sure I’m following correctly, in the end, what does that do for us?
SPEAKER 05 :
That means we’re spending less on NATO, we’re spending less on the U.N., we’re spending less on a lot of… Basically cuts our bills back, cuts our expenses. Exactly. So we have to borrow less money, we get yields down, individuals and businesses can borrow, take out loans at lower rates, and then the Fed can start cutting interest rates because, you know, borrowing costs are down, they’re not worried about inflation as much, and we have steady growth.
SPEAKER 17 :
Hmm. Makes sense. And again, like you and I have talked many, many times, a lot of this could have happened with participation from the Fed early on, but these guys aren’t going to do it, Scott. It’s not going to happen.
SPEAKER 05 :
Yes.
SPEAKER 17 :
They do not see things the same way you and I do. Let’s just say it that way.
SPEAKER 05 :
No, and it’s unfortunate, but toward the end of last year, early this year, the Fed got a little more political with some recent changes that happened on the yearly rotation and You know, guys that were saying in the beginning of January or December that they were going to cut rates four times in 25, all of a sudden in January, January meeting at the end of the month, they’re like, well, maybe not so much anymore. And it was like, what happened in the last month? Nothing. And it’s disappointing.
SPEAKER 17 :
Yeah, well, you already know my thoughts on that. They were late to the game in raising them. They’re late to the game in lowering them. And I think on top of that, and Trump is proving this right now, it’s almost getting to the point, Scott, maybe this is something you and I can talk about in the future, is the Fed, and I get it, they’re, make sure I use my words carefully here, they play a part, but are they as necessary as they once were? That’s the question.
SPEAKER 05 :
I think they definitely are. You know, there’s this economist that was one of the, he was George H.W. Bush’s, I believe he was either his chief economist or the head of the NEC at the time. We spent like a year talking. Once a month we’d sit down and have these hour-plus long conversations. I learned a lot from him. He was really amazing. He was Harvard trained. But one of the interesting things he said was, you know, at the end of the day, The government doesn’t want to do the Fed’s job because it’s so difficult and dirty. And so they’d much rather have those guys sitting there so they can blame them than take the blame. But, you know, for all the back and forth on Powell, Powell has pulled a tough oar. Basically, he’s had a tough job to do. And I think when it’s all said and done, Pal, you know, he’s been late to hike and late to cut, but he’s done a pretty decent job, all things said. It could be way worse.
SPEAKER 17 :
Okay. I’ll leave it at that. Scott, as always, appreciate you, sir. Thanks for your time. You betcha, man. Have a great night. Scott Garlis, again, you can always find Scott on Twitter. See Scott Garlis, and I appreciate him greatly. Affordable interest mortgage is next. Speaking of mortgage rates, where are things at today? How’s it going to affect you? Talk to Kurt directly, 720-895-0500.
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SPEAKER 07 :
This isn’t Rage Radio. This is Real Relatable Radio. Back to Rush to Reason.
SPEAKER 17 :
All right, not shocking. There was an announcement made here just a couple of days ago that McDonald’s, is going to now start incorporating AI into its 43,000 locations, making things run more efficiently, making sure orders are on time and accurate. They’re going to use advanced kitchen equipment to improve customer service and efficiencies as well. And you knew it was coming, folks. Anytime you start raising labor costs, forcing that upon companies, They will figure out other ways to reduce their labor cost, still make things more efficient, and make money at the end of the day. And I am not shocked to see McDonald’s being the first one out of the gate doing something along these lines. So we’ll see how this goes, but my guess is it’ll be very successful. We’ll be back tomorrow, same time, same place. Have a great night. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560.