In this episode of Rush to Reason, host John Rush delves into the pervasive influence of social media influencers and the rampant spread of misinformation. With false predictions surrounding topics such as martial law continuing to gain traction, John emphasizes the importance of critical thinking and skepticism. He warns listeners to be cautious of those who profit off sensationalist content and outlines the methods by which they generate views and revenue. As the discussion progresses, John takes a broader look at the current political climate, highlighting the increased confrontations between political activists at rallies. With input from guests, the
SPEAKER 17 :
This is Rush to Reason.
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You are going to shut your damn yapper and listen for a change because I got you pegged, sweetheart. You want to take the easy way out because you’re scared. And you’re scared because if you try and fail, there’s only you to blame. Let me break this down for you. Life is scary. Get used to it. There are no magical fixes.
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With your host, John Rush.
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My advice to you is to do what your parents did! Get a job, Turk! You haven’t made everybody equal. You’ve made them the same, and there’s a big difference!
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Let me tell you why you’re here. You’re here because you know something. What you know you can’t explain, but you feel it. You’ve felt it your entire life, that there’s something wrong with the world. You don’t know what it is, but it’s there. It is this feeling that has brought you to me.
SPEAKER 18 :
Are you crazy? Am I? Or am I so sane that you just blew your mind?
SPEAKER 17 :
It’s Rush to Reason with your host, John Rush, presented by Cub Creek Heating and Air Conditioning.
SPEAKER 08 :
All right, we are back. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. And I did a little research, by the way, through that news break we just had, Bob Duco’s commentary, really asking the question, Will there be martial law? Are there predictions for martial law on Sunday? And I even asked the particular persons that have been telling me that there will be who’s predicting this. And one thing that I’ll give as a word of caution, because I always do this anyways, is really look at people that are predicting these things. And where I’m going with this is if this is some YouTuber or TikToker or somebody on Instagram or whatever, and they’re a quote unquote influencer and they’re saying these things, be really careful. Because as I’ve explained a gazillion times, influencers make money by clicks, by views, by you watching their video. And when it comes to even Instagram and TikTok, they make money by sharing the video. In fact, the longer you watch or if you watch it again and again, they get more and more views. how should I say this, money, revenue, by those things happening as to what I just said a moment ago. So the more it’s shared, the more you like it, the more that you’ve sent it on to somebody else. If you might share it on your own page and so on, all of those things will add revenue for that particular individual. That’s how it works. So you really have to be careful when you’re following somebody that’s making these kinds of predictions. Are they making it because they’re really being honest and they’ve got factual evidence to back it up, or are they just looking for likes and views? I’ll give you an example. This is a little bit out of the box, but it’s not. I had a couple different people over the past, I don’t know, few weeks send me different videos and articles even that General Motors is going to release a new Chevelle. No, they’re not. But there’s people out there that are even, you know, there’s even drawings and this is what it’s going to look like and, and, and. And, you know, there was, for example, another one that went around for a little while. A Cadillac is going to have its own Corvette. No, they’re not. No, they’re not. Nowhere has that even been talked about. But yet these things will become, you know, will get circulated to where people will start believing these things. And pretty soon everybody’s thinking that, yeah, this is coming. This is going to happen. No, no, it’s not. No, it’s not. And I look at this whole martial law thing in very much the same way. Who started it? Who’s saying it? Who’s promoting it? And are they valid? Because I can tell you that some of the things I’m mentioning on the car sides of things, these guys that are talking about this stuff are total knuckleheads. They’re wrong. It’s not going to happen. It’s wishful thinking. So be careful when you look at and or share things that somebody, especially on social media, YouTube, etc. And I get it. There’s a lot of news and there’s some great things that can come from those sources. I’m not knocking them. It’s no different than any other news source, by the way. You still have to do your double checks to make sure that, A, does this make sense? Is this just so outlandish it just doesn’t make any sense? B, is this real? Is this person able to back this up? For example, you could go out on YouTube and watch any flat earther explain the flat earth, and you’d think, wow, these guys got their stuff together. They don’t. They’re knuckleheads. It’s not going to happen. It’s not real, I should say. We live on a round earth. We know that. But they’ll come up with all these different excuses as to, you know, we live on a flat earth. Okay, well, just because they’re saying it in a video doesn’t mean anything. They’re still wrong. Just because somebody says it’s so doesn’t mean it is, is my point. So be really careful of that. And going back to the widespread GOP gains, there’s an article in the Daily Signal. We interview folks in there on a quite often basis, very often basis. And there’s a New York Times study that is finding widespread GOP gains sounding the alarm for Democrats, meaning we’re gaining. They’re not. Everything I talked about last hour, before the hour ended, about the gains that we’re making and why there won’t be martial law, there’s articles proving what I’m saying. The Democrats are in trouble and they know it. They’re not bringing people into the fold like they need to. We are. Conrad, go ahead, sir.
SPEAKER 07 :
Yeah, you know, I got that text message a little while ago. I couldn’t really talk to you, but now I can, but They would love nothing more than for somebody like you or me or any of us who are conservative Republican activists and talk people to go down there and get into it with one of them. And, you know, hopefully they probably want to get caught on film that there’s a bunch of right-wing radicals down here that are beating us up. And, you know, that’s what they do. They’re just sleazes is all they are. You know that.
SPEAKER 08 :
Yeah, and I think that’s where, you know, I was just talking earlier, Conrad, and I get it. Some people’s, you know, DNA and some people are more equipped. And, you know, Dan Muir used to be with me as my co-host. He had the type of personality where he could go down there inside of those particular rallies and nobody would bother him. He’d be their best friend by the time it was all said and done. And he’s a perfect fit for that. Conrad, I’m not. It’s not my personality, not my DNA.
SPEAKER 07 :
Yeah, well, you know, I get my blood boiling and I’m probably… get into it with one of them. I’ve got a guy up in Evergreen that I do tech battling with. He’s a jerk, and we go at it all the time, too. Anyway, they love nothing more than confrontation, and you’re absolutely right. That’s the worst thing we could do is go down there and get into it. I mean, like you said, somebody that’s cool like Dan could do it. Maybe that would be a different story.
SPEAKER 08 :
Well, and the thing about that is where Dan would do this, there wouldn’t be any fights, arguments. You know, again, those people would love him by the time he left. That’s just the persona that he had. So you wouldn’t have any uprising with somebody like him being there. It would be totally different.
SPEAKER 07 :
Right. You know, I’ve kind of got a sneaking suspicion that Soros has his hands in this. What are your thoughts?
SPEAKER 08 :
Say that again, Conrad. Sorry, you broke up. Say that again for me.
SPEAKER 07 :
Do you have a sneaking suspicion that George Soros has his hands in this?
SPEAKER 08 :
Oh, absolutely. I think he’s probably one of, not all of, but one of the funders of, absolutely.
SPEAKER 07 :
Yeah, they’ve got to be organized. They’ve got all these frozen water bottles and junk, and the cinder blocks and the bags they can break up and throw at the At the police, it’s organized. It’s definitely organized.
SPEAKER 08 :
Oh, absolutely. Absolutely. No. And again, Conrad, they are doing this in a lot of cases. These organizations, I’ve said this before, where they’re using our tax dollars that are funding some of these particular non quote unquote nonprofits. And that money is getting funneled into the very things that we are talking about. These guys are slick. They know what they’re doing. It is a an underground movement. I guess you could say they they’re very sleek about how they’re doing it. Of course, eventually they get exposed and they are right now. But reality is we still have to deal with these knuckleheads.
SPEAKER 07 :
I heard today that President Trump is going to send the Marines in there, but they’re not going to have their guns loaded. I don’t know if you heard that.
SPEAKER 08 :
I didn’t hear anything about the guns, but what the Marines are doing in L.A. specifically is protecting ICE agents, protecting our assets that are there, federally speaking, and that’s why they’re there. And by the way, that’s why he can do what he’s doing and why Newsom’s suit got squashed, because there’s nothing to sue over. He’s got the full right and authority as president to do what he’s doing in that regard.
SPEAKER 07 :
Absolutely. But I’m just saying, I wonder if it hopefully will never descend into the point where they would have to fire at anybody. But, I mean, if they’re not, maybe they’ve got their animals standing by if they need it. But, you know, I guess make their presence known.
SPEAKER 08 :
Yeah, and I would say in a particular situation like that, their presence alone, I do know there’s even some helicopters flying and some things like that. The presence alone, Conrad, for the majority of people would be enough.
SPEAKER 1 :
Yeah. Yeah.
SPEAKER 08 :
And keep in mind, there’s a lot of other armed individuals, you know, police and so on that are there that, yeah, and so far, fortunately, you know, nobody has been shot other than with a rubber bullet, which is a good thing as well. And I will say this, I think a lot of those, you know, ICE agents and so on are very controlled because the guy that was throwing rocks at the Tahoe’s driving by, let’s just say that me and that guy, that wouldn’t have ended the same way if I’d have been one of those guys.
SPEAKER 07 :
Exactly right, brother. Exactly right. I’m with you all the way.
SPEAKER 08 :
Those guys have way more patience than I have. Let’s just say that.
SPEAKER 07 :
That’s what I was saying, too. You and I will try to avoid those kind of places.
SPEAKER 08 :
I’m not the person to be at those rallies. Let’s just say it that way.
SPEAKER 07 :
Me, too, buddy. God bless you. You too, Conrad. Appreciate you.
SPEAKER 08 :
No, appreciate you very much. And yeah, and folks, some of you are more equipped than others, although I will just tell you that unless you’ve got the ability to do what, you know, Charlie was even saying to where you can, you know, you’ve got a podcast or you’ve got the ability to be super nice and record some things and not be a target and not get into a fight and so on, and you don’t feel like you’re, you know, you would be in any kind of a danger by going there, then, you know, be my guest. Although I will tell you this. I was watching a video today out of L.A. where a Hispanic lady with kids in the car evidently made the wrong turn, ended up in the wrong place, and literally was grabbed from her car. And I don’t know whatever ended up happening to the kids. The video’s not that long. But she ends up getting swept away by the crowd, basically, told to F off after she said that there were kids in the car. And I’m thinking, what a bunch of animals. Literally, what a bunch of animals. And that’s why I’m talking about, you know, for you guys that are on the left, this isn’t looking well for you. That video that I watched today, that’s not a good look for you. This is a Hispanic woman that made a wrong turn, that ended up in the midst of this particular protest in L.A., that tells them all that, and this is daylight. This is not nighttime, by the way. This is daylight. And she tells them, I’ve got kids in the car, and they basically tell her to F off and hustle her out of there. I don’t know what happened to the kids. I mean, that’s not a good look for you guys that are on the left. You’re being really stupid. And the people that you guys are employing to do this, and yes, you are employing them, you’re doing this completely wrong. It’s dumb. It’s dumb. You’re not helping yourself. And I don’t know why I’m telling you anything, because I should just be happy that you’re doing this. But the problem is, you know, innocent people are now getting hurt. And that’s not the way things should work either. So it needs to stop. Your side is creating something that doesn’t need to be happening at all. You’re completely wrong in what you’re saying. You know you’re completely wrong. You’re hiring people that know this is completely wrong to then protest something that you know is wrong. Go figure. You all know it’s wrong, but you’re doing it anyways. And then you get innocent bystanders involved that frankly have no clue why they’re even there. They’re just there because they want to be in a protest. And they don’t like Trump or they don’t like this or they don’t like that. They’re as much of a knucklehead as you are. And again, I shouldn’t be complaining because it bodes well for us on the conservative side because all you’re doing is making one big commercial for us that we don’t have to go pay for. All we do is take clips out of what you guys are doing. It’s easy. You’re literally doing our job for us. Thank you. Really, I should be thanking all of you that are on the left for doing what you’re doing. Thank you because you’re making it easy for us. You’re telling people that have sanity, come over to the Republican side. They’re sane. Don’t go to the left. They’re insane. Literally, that’s what you guys on the left are doing. I hope you understand that. You’re literally driving people from your party to ours. And as I should repeat, it’s true in Colorado. It’s true in a lot of other states. There’s not enough Democrats to win an election. There’s not enough Republicans to win an election. It takes one or the other and the middle joining forces with that other party, either party, to actually win an election. By the way, that’s something that most people on the far right of Colorado don’t understand. You’ve got to have people in the middle. You can’t win it without them. There’s not enough Republicans to win an election. There’s also not enough Democrats to win an election, especially here in Colorado. You need the middle on your side to actually win, something our side needs to understand and do a better job of. Fleshlock coming up next. And again, all of this talk about… Different things happening in regards to arrests and criminal behavior and so on. And you may find that you need Kevin Flesch on your side, not because you’re a criminal, but because something’s happened. There’s been an accident. The other party’s not doing what it should. You find yourself in a predicament where you just need legal help. That’s what Kevin is there for. 303-806-8886.
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All right, Dr. Scott, where if you’re looking for a solid doctor that thinks like we do, Dr. Kelly will be with us tomorrow at 3 o’clock, by the way. And if you’re looking for a doctor that thinks like we do, thinks like she does, look no further. Dr. Scott is that doctor. 303-663-6990.
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SPEAKER 08 :
This is Rush to Reason on KLZ 560. All right, we’re going to talk to Scott Garlis here in about 10 minutes or so. But before that, and we’ll get into this with Scott a little bit, there was news out this morning. I woke up to it, actually, that China and the U.S. have reached an official trade agreement. All that’s left is for Trump and Xi to sign it. I never can figure out how. the Chinese do things but X, Y, Z. So anyways, that’s all we’re waiting for those two to kind of put the final touches on it, I guess you could say. But they have reached a consensus, a representative from both sides. This was all over the news this morning. And going back to what I was talking about a few minutes ago, another reason why, A, we’re not going to see inflation like the Fed and others have predicted. B, while you’re going to see the cost of things still continue to go down, not go up. and why we as a country are going to continue to win under the leadership of Donald Trump, meaning that we’re going to continue to collect more people on our side of the aisle than what the left is doing with their shenanigans right now. And I speak to the left a lot because I know there’s a lot of you that listen. Some of you will chime in and tell me that you do, but I know there’s a lot that do that don’t tell me that you do, but I know you’re listening anyways, and the reality is you’re losing. And these riots and the things that are happening and the No Kings Day coming up, again, somebody in your party should tell these knuckleheads you’re not helping. John Fetterman did. He is somebody in your party that is saying that. Problem is there’s not enough of him. And I’m telling you guys on the left, you are screwing up royally. Thank you, by the way. I’m glad you are helping our side out immensely because you’re screwing up royally. You’re not helping yourselves because this trade agreement, again, is another feather in Donald Trump’s cap when it’s all said and done. And despite those globalists out there that say that, you know, we don’t need any of this. It was fine the way it was before. No, it wasn’t. We were getting royally screwed. It wasn’t fine. And China’s not the only one we were getting royally screwed over by. There were other countries as well, Canada being one of them. But that’s ending. We’re getting much better deals. And the trade imbalance, no, I realize, well, we will have a deficit as a country forever because we buy more than any other country. I’m fully aware of that. And before any of you send me a message along those lines, I get that. But could we do a better job of balancing things out and not having it cost us as exporters as much as it has been, making the playing field a lot more fair than what it’s been, and at the end of the day, giving a better playing field for those that may want to go ahead and do some of their manufacturing and some of the things that we do overseas back here? Yes, we can, by the way. All of that can be done. And we’re going to. And it’s happening as we speak. Again, another way that our side is winning and the left side is not. And I hate to keep coming back to the immigration thing and the left and the anti-ICE and all of that. But I was watching a clip this morning. My wife sent it to me where it’s of Obama. I think it was back in 07 or 08 where he’s literally talking about immigration. And the fact that, you know, we’re going to enforce the laws and every president before Republican and Democrat have enforced the laws and immigration. If you come to this country illegally, you know, you’re going to be stopped and this, that and the other. He goes to the whole spiel. Sounds like Donald Trump. Actually worse than Donald Trump as far as what he was saying. And that was Obama. And now we have an entire party of the left talking about how bad it is to be doing what Donald Trump is doing by closing the border and deporting those that have come here illegally, especially those that have come here that are known criminals. And we’ve got the left defending these people. Like I continue to talk to you guys on the left. How stupid can you be? How stupid can you be? You’re your own worst enemy. Thankfully. Thankfully, you’re your own worst enemy. You’re not helping your side out at all. You’re making it worse, which I’m glad for. The other thing that’s happening right now is your side is finally, truly showing its real colors. You believe in lawlessness. You’re fine with that. You don’t care that, you know, the protesters run rip shot over a city and tear it all up and spray graffiti everywhere and light cars on fire and destroy personal property and and and you don’t care. You don’t care about that at the end of the day, showing that you don’t care about people. Like I’ve said for a long over a decade now, I’ve been saying the left doesn’t care about people. And you guys just continue to prove it over and over and over again. The very riots right now that you guys are all supporting proves my point. You don’t care. It’s actually opposite. You hate others. You don’t care for others. You hate us. You’ll come out, though, and say, oh, you know, our party, you know, we’re all for the little guy and we’re all for this and, you know, we’re all for that and blah, blah, blah. No, you’re not. You hate people. Because if you truly were really caring about other people, you wouldn’t be doing what you’re doing right now. You wouldn’t be burning down cities. You wouldn’t be rioting and protesting the way that you are, especially against things that are illegal. You’re rioting against illegal activity. Go figure. Go figure. I mean, again, like I said, you’re showing your true colors, but how dumb. And at the end of the day, you’re costing others money. whether it’s a company like Waymo that’s had five or six cars destroyed in L.A. They’re not even going to run services right now because of that, to police cars that are being smashed and burned, to ice vehicles that had their windows put out by a guy throwing rocks, which, by the way, costs all of us money because who do you think pays for those new windshields? We as taxpayers do, knuckleheads. So once again, you don’t care about people. You actually dislike and hate others. That’s your nature. Because it’s good versus evil, folks. Let’s not forget, really, what all of this boils down to. With what’s going on with the riots, what’s going on with the No Kings Day and so on, this literally is the battle of good versus evil. And I’m not saying our side is totally good all the time. We have our share of, you know, our fair share of flaws and mistakes and so on. But in general, this is literally good versus evil. We have one side of the aisle that literally hates others, the left, will do anything they possibly can to destroy each other and the country at the same time, versus the other side where, yeah, we genuinely do care about others, despite what the left says. We do care about others. We care about personal growth and being able to stand on your own two feet and not just giving people handouts. We want to see people achieve their goals and do great things. That’s what our party consists of. We want to see people get ahead in life. We truly do love people, or we wouldn’t be for that. We want law and order, which, by the way, helps one another. It doesn’t hurt one another. It helps one another. So we are the party that really does care about others because of the things that I just said. Your side does not. Your side is totally evil. It does not care about people at all. It actually is the opposite. It hates people. And you prove it ongoing, day in and day out. So we’ll come back, talk to Scott Garlis here in a moment. But please, take some of the words that I just said a moment ago. And if you’ve got family members or others, in a very kind way, explain to them what I just said and let me know what their response is, please. Roof Savers of Colorado coming up next. And when it comes to your roof, if you’ve had any damage of late at all with some of the storms we’ve had, give Dave a call. Do not call your insurance company. Call him first, 303-710-6916.
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SPEAKER 05 :
The best export we have is Common Sense. You’re listening to Rush to Reason.
SPEAKER 08 :
And we are back. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. Scott Garlis joining us now. Scott, how are you, sir? Hey, John, I’m well. How are you? I’m good. Before we get going, because I always forget this until the end, let folks know how they can get a hold of you as we’re listening.
SPEAKER 03 :
Yeah, sure. They can check me out on Twitter, LinkedIn, or Substack. Just look for C. Scott Garlis.
SPEAKER 08 :
Awesome. All right. Talk to us about – I mean, we’ve got a lot to cover today, but let’s get started. Inflation data, I mean, we continue to see that. I talked about that even a little bit earlier. There’s a trade deal on the books. We’ve got to get things finalized between China and the U.S., but the reality is even with some of the tariff stuff that’s gone on, Scott – Because of energy and some other things you and I have talked about, we’re just not seeing prices increase like some had predicted they would.
SPEAKER 03 :
Yeah. So, you know, in April, the CPI, the Consumer Price Index, that’s one gauge of inflation. That’s one that came out today. Today’s number was for May. But last month, the April numbers came out. They dropped to 2.3%. That was the lowest level since, I want to say, February or March of 21, right when inflation started taking off. And so, you know, going into the numbers, everybody’s like, oh, my God, the April tariffs, you wait, inflation’s going to be bad. Well, it dropped, and they were surprised by this. And so the story was, well, wait until we get the May numbers. The May numbers are going to be really bad because prices are going up. And they weren’t. They were 2.4%. Wow. They went up a smidge, but they were right in line with where they were in March. And Wall Street was looking for them to go higher. So they were better than expected. It basically flat over the last few months. So the story about runaway prices right now just isn’t panning out.
SPEAKER 08 :
No, in fact, anybody that’s out, and this is what cracks me up about Wall Street, I guess, is anybody that shops and does anything and buys gas and buys groceries and so on, Scott, can give a testimony to what we’re talking about. The reality is prices on most things, yeah, I get it, cars and some big-ticket items, yes, there’s been some increases there, but the things that people are buying on a daily basis have actually come down, not gone up.
SPEAKER 03 :
Yes. And so if we look at something like The S&P 500, we’re within like 2% of the all-time highs. Wow.
SPEAKER 06 :
Wow.
SPEAKER 03 :
Yeah. So, you know, Wall Street is looking at everything going on. You know, and then there’s what’s going on in the Senate right now with the spending package.
SPEAKER 08 :
The bill, right.
SPEAKER 03 :
Yeah, the big, beautiful bill. And they’re kind of looking at that, too. And they’re saying, well, you know, right now the CBO has come back with estimates that, the deficit-forming numbers are far less than, I think the other day when they came out, they were like $2.5 trillion.
SPEAKER 08 :
Correct.
SPEAKER 03 :
It came out after we had talked last week, and then the original estimate when Trump was running for office was $4.5 trillion. So actually, I think that number last week was $2.3 trillion. So it’s $2.2 trillion less than the original estimate. So All of these scary items are starting to pan out to be not so scary. And then if we want to take that the next step into what you had mentioned prior to our conversation starting with trade, you know, the trade situation after the scary proposition on April 2nd isn’t panning out to be – The scary scenario that all these people said it was going to be.
SPEAKER 08 :
Right. And I’ve had this conversation with others in the financial world, and some are very scared, and they’re worried about runaway inflation and the trade war and this, that, and the other. And I just keep coming back saying, okay, guys, wait. First of all, time out. You have to look at what’s really going on in these particular areas and the goods that we’re actually buying. And, yes, I get it. If things really go awry and there’s 125 percent tariffs on China, yeah, that could be bad at the end of the day. But, Scott, that’s not what’s going to happen. We already saw that news first thing this morning. I woke up to that. the deal that’s being made, and most likely will get inked. I highly doubt that it won’t because, as I’ve been saying and you’ve been saying for quite some time, and I’ll stand on this until I go to the grave, every other country, China included, needs us more than we need them.
SPEAKER 03 :
Yeah, and so one of the things, too, like Trump said today, it’s about 55% tariffs on China. That includes the 25% from his first term tariffs. Plus the 30% they talked to after this deal, they struck in Geneva and then they restruck in London. Yeah, these countries, China’s at the negotiating table with the U.S. because they need the U.S.
SPEAKER 08 :
They have to be.
SPEAKER 03 :
China has a serious deflation problem right now.
SPEAKER 08 :
Yep.
SPEAKER 03 :
They have a serious unemployment problem. Their shipments to the U.S. have plummeted over the last couple months.
SPEAKER 08 :
Yeah, and what I’ve been telling others, Scott, and I think you understand this is – and I’m sorry to say this, but this is where a lot of the folks, the skeptics when it comes to terrorists and stuff have just got it completely wrong. What’s happened in America is people have realized that, you know – Okay, that crappy little gadget that I used to buy, yeah, I used to run down to wherever, the dollar store or Walmart or whatever. You know, the reality is it’s not something I absolutely have to have right now. I can delay buying that or I can even supplement that with, you know, substitute that with something else, maybe even this made locally. And at the end of the day, if I don’t need it, I just don’t need it and I’ll move on without it. And that’s literally what’s happened. And that’s why I say China needs us more than them. Yeah, I get it. There’s some rare earth metals and some things that we get from them that we have to have. But Scott…
SPEAKER 03 :
outside of but a handful of items we don’t need them uh man for a personal example of stuff like that for my family it maybe it’s not necessarily china but like the whole egg thing we’re like we really don’t our life isn’t going to fall apart if we don’t eat eggs correct egg prices are crazy correct on top of that we buy eggs so rarely it just it’s like that that extra bit of money it It’s not the end of the world.
SPEAKER 08 :
From their $5 a dozen or $10 a dozen, at the end of the day, for most families, this is where it gets crazy because people go out and hoard them and so on. It’s like, wait a minute, time out. If you really look at how many you actually are using, and I get it, some families use more than others, but to your point, Scott, a dozen eggs, even if they’re double in price, it’s not going to be the end of the world for most people. And if that’s the case, then don’t eat them.
SPEAKER 03 :
Yeah, and Michelle and I talked about this, and we’re like, we buy eggs so rarely. It’s just… I mean, I don’t know anybody that eats eggs every day.
SPEAKER 08 :
Well, you do now because I’m kind of one of those guys. But now I will say that when they went up, I didn’t eat as many, not because they were too high priced. Honestly, for us, it was just so far. We weren’t going to run from store to store to store to store to buy them. I figured out other things to substitute to have for breakfast, not a big deal. But, yeah, I’m kind of one of those guys that has two eggs a day, Scott. OK, that’s fair. Not too many of us out there, I know, but I’m just one of those guys. And I guess maybe because of my old school nature and being old and whatever. But I’m unique. I’m with you. Not very many people do what I do. And by the way, what I’d like to see numbers on, not to get off on a rabbit trail here, but I’d like to see numbers, Scott, on how many eggs were hoarded. that people sat on that they eventually had to throw away because they had more than they could even consume. That’s the number I’d like to see, by the way.
SPEAKER 03 :
Oh, and I’m sure you’d be disgusted when you saw that number.
SPEAKER 08 :
I’m sure I would be because I’m sure there were a lot more that got tossed than, frankly, probably were used because anytime something gets a scarcity, people run out and buy more. Now, where there’s an exception to that is this whole China thing and some of the stuff that you might run down and buy. at Walmart, you know, that toy that, by the way, your kid doesn’t absolutely have to have or that stuffed animal that, again, your kid doesn’t absolutely have to have or that other Chinese made whatever it happens to be. People have just figured out a way to work around that and or not buy it at all or buy something American made.
SPEAKER 03 :
Completely. And, you know, to that end, too, I mean, I’ve been reading stuff about how these Chinese manufacturers, and they were willing to pick up all the tariff costs because they’re so desperate to sell stuff.
SPEAKER 08 :
Because if not, Scott, their factories run empty. They’re not really – because again, and this is a thing that I think Donald Trump has finally – using our clout and why we haven’t done this in the past. And I’ve yet to get a good answer other than you and I talking because most other financial guys don’t even look at it this way. But we’re the world’s largest customer. And I can tell you right now, Scott, that when my largest customers come to me, I pay attention. I do it. You can’t always do what they ask, but you do as much as you possibly can to find a happy medium because you want to keep your largest customer happy. That’s the way trade works. Unless you’re the United States of America, then we just let everybody trample all over us.
SPEAKER 03 :
That’s right. My father-in-law, he had an auto body shop for years. One of the things he did was he took an anchor tenant that was like a Geico. He said there wasn’t a lot of margin in their business, but it kept me busy. That’s right. It kept my guys busy. That’s right. When that other business would come in the door, there was higher margin, they would jump all over that and get that done. They’d be putting money in their pockets. To your point, yeah, the large customers, you want to do that volume. You want to keep the lights on. You want to pay the bills. And that’s right. And you want to keep that large customer happy.
SPEAKER 08 :
And as one thing as a country, until now, we have not leveraged very well. I’m not – well, I do know why, Scott, because we have so many globalists out there and so many people that, frankly, I feel at the end of the day don’t care whether America is successful or not. That’s a whole other conversation. But we now have – You know, we have a White House right now that does care, that wants to make it a level playing field, that wants us to have a good chance of exporting goods, that wants to incentivize people, you know, manufacturers to bring things back to the United States of America. And you’re not going to bring – I get it. I’m not naive enough, Scott, to think that everything’s going to come back here. You’re not going to get a huge Foxconn Apple plant in America. I understand that. Those things are probably not going to happen. But if we can shift things around to where we’re not so reliant on one country and we can even spread that around, is that not to our benefit as a country?
SPEAKER 03 :
It is, and it’s to the benefit of our allies, too.
SPEAKER 08 :
Absolutely. Yeah, and I shouldn’t have to remind people of this, Scott, and I don’t think I need to with my listeners, but China’s not our ally.
SPEAKER 03 :
No, they’re not. China’s out for China, and that’s right. And so, look, China’s going to do what’s in their best interest, too, and I get that, right?
SPEAKER 08 :
Yeah, totally.
SPEAKER 03 :
It’s the same thing we’re doing, but to your point, you’ve got to play the cards you have. Because if you don’t, you’re going to lose.
SPEAKER 08 :
And by the way, Scott, I appreciate you saying that. We have close to 28 trillion cards annually we get to play with, far more than anyone else, and it’s high time we started using them.
SPEAKER 03 :
Yeah, I want to say it’s around 27. That might be.
SPEAKER 08 :
I think our GDPs, we’re just shy of 28, if I’m not mistaken.
SPEAKER 03 :
Okay, yeah, global GDP. No, R, that U.S. GDP, USA GDP. I think we’re just shy, 27.72 trillion, just shy of 28.
SPEAKER 08 :
That was in 2023.
SPEAKER 03 :
Oh, yeah. OK. I was going to say percentage wise. I want to say we’re like 25 percent, 27 percent. Yeah.
SPEAKER 08 :
If you look at the globe. Yeah. Yeah. You’re you’re no you’re on the right track there. The next closest is China at close to 18. And there’s this flat line, by the way. There’s this ours is continuing to go up. There’s this flat line. So, yeah, if you take you take us and then we’re about 50 percent.
SPEAKER 03 :
Yeah, exactly. But look at that gap, you know, for people that don’t understand this. Yeah, I mean, like, do I want to deal with the guy that’s 27% of global demand or the guy that’s 17? You’re going to go to the guy that’s 27 a lot faster. Back to your point about running a business, this administration takes a bit of a different approach than a lot of others have, where it is trying to run the country more like a business. Now, you know, the flip side of that is, Would we like to see more of a sort of a deficit hawk? Sure, we would, but it might take some time to get there. And the flip side of that conversation, too, though, is one way to get out of debt is to inflate your way out of debt. And what people don’t understand about that is by spending and getting the economy booming, and then if you can get rates down, you can start to take out some of the higher debt you have, refinance it with lower debt, and you can work that out. interest payment bill down, and by having your economy boom and bringing things back here like big tech jobs, big manufacturing related to tech, that can work in your favor that you can get enough receipts starting to come back in as the federal government that you can start to wipe a lot of that debt out.
SPEAKER 08 :
Yeah, and thank you for saying that because you are 1,000% correct, and that’s where our next conversation, which I always bring the Fed up because they just frustrate the living daylights out of me. It’s become nothing but a huge ego contest between Trump and Powell, and Powell needs to lower his ego and figure out, hey, if I’m going to really get things back on track and go down in history as a guy that actually helped make this happen, he’s got to get something going fairly quickly or it’s not going to happen, Scott. He’s the only thing right now holding up huge, explosive growth in the United States of America.
SPEAKER 03 :
Yeah, I would agree with that. I mean, look at that. So I went through the housing numbers after we last spoke, the most recent data through April. And, you know, the housing market is really starting to suffer. New home inventory is up to 8.1 months. So that’s how long it would take to sell out of all the new home inventory if you didn’t build another house right now. Right. But basically, that’s above the typical average is five to six months. And now you have existing homes, they usually run around four to five months. They’re in a four and a half month range. So that’s in normal, but it was down to like two and a half a couple years ago. So it’s really rebounding. Existing home sales, they’re at the lowest we’ve seen in a long time. So If they don’t do something rate-wise, the housing market is really going to start… Yeah, you’re killing it.
SPEAKER 08 :
Literally, you’re killing it. And I’ve got to believe that the Fed can look at the same numbers you and I are looking at and understand that. The question is, again, when will… Powell, he’s a guy who really has to pull the trigger, pull the lever when it’s all said and done. When will he feel that it’s bad enough that he actually lowers rate a quarter to a half a point?
SPEAKER 03 :
Well, you know, Bessing came out today and said… They plan to extend or he’s pushing for them to extend the tariff pause another 90 days for all the countries they’re still negotiating with. So that would put us into October. I mean, so if we’re not seeing inflation show up yet and they extend another 90 days, I don’t think we’re going to see inflation pick up, really show up by October either.
SPEAKER 08 :
Meaning – because here’s the real question is, will Powell do something this month or next, or is he going to wait until fall?
SPEAKER 03 :
I mean, I think he has to do something in July. There’s a chance he could wait until the fall, though. It just – But the thing is, like, we’ve talked about this before. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. You’ve got – you’re just – you’re not seeing this bad data materialize.
SPEAKER 08 :
And the other thing I think you’ve got to look at if you’re the Fed is you’ve got this – and I get it. If they lower rates even by a quarter point, it’s not going to do a ton to mortgage rates overnight. But that – Consumer confidence does, in fact, change, and it will change the housing market, Scott, based upon that alone. And you’ve got the rest of the summer selling season. I’m one that says if he was really smart, he’d lower this month. He’s not. I’m sorry to say he’s not. I think he’s already missed his mark, so he’s going to miss this one as well. But man alive, if he waits until July, he’s just delaying things one more month, and he shouldn’t be.
SPEAKER 03 :
Well, then the flip side of that, this would be a disaster scenario. But the disaster scenario that could come out of that is like, if you created deflationary cycle in house prices, so the year-over-year house price in April dropped to only a 1.8% gain, that’s more along typical lines. But that’s the lowest we’ve seen in a while. And again, that’s a big inflation component. And to me, it leans into like, why aren’t you doing anything? But Let’s say he creates a deflationary cycle in the housing market, and prices start to go the other way, and they go negative. And then people start dumping houses on that.
SPEAKER 08 :
Yeah, that’s a really bad scenario. I mean, you’ve got to believe that he and others around the Fed table are having these same conversations. Scott, they have to be.
SPEAKER 03 :
Well, my hope is – so Trump is saying he’s going to announce something soon about – who his next replacement will be for Powell. He’s going to announce a couple of his candidates. So, Powell’s out next May. Maybe what you wind up with is he does announce these candidates, and they start talking about where they would set rates if they were in charge right now, and maybe the market starts to go more along with that sort of forward-looking guidance. Maybe you start to see borrowing costs come down in some of the banks, and maybe you start to see yields on Treasury start coming down in advance.
SPEAKER 08 :
Is some of what Bessent is doing right now at Treasury helping some of that at all? I mean, I haven’t seen rates really change much, but what he’s doing doesn’t have the overnight success that the Fed does.
SPEAKER 03 :
No, definitely not. I mean, what he’s doing is keeping things stable. I mean, that puts confidence in people buying U.S. bonds. I think you’re starting to see more buyers come back in U.S. bonds, and you can see that because yields are gradually coming back down again. So that’s a super important step in the process. But Powell needs to take it the next part of the way and start to cut rates more. And that’s really going to help.
SPEAKER 08 :
And by the way, I cannot disagree with you at all. And I’m like you. I just don’t see much changing in the way of the economy getting worse. If anything, if things don’t pick up, you’re going to see the job market not get any better. Not that it’s super bad right now, but it’s not going to get – people aren’t going to hire. Here’s how this works for everybody listening. If you’re a small business owner, if you can’t see the Fed moving forward and changing things when it comes to your borrowing costs, you’re not going to move forward on certain things. You’re not going to hire that next person. You’re going to go ahead and wait. And all that has a negative effect upon the economy, Scott.
SPEAKER 03 :
That’s correct. That is very correct. Because why do you want to borrow money at a high rate of interest to hang on to a guy when you’re just like, you know what? I’ll just let him go and hire him back down the road.
SPEAKER 08 :
You won’t. You’re just, you know, to your point, you’re just not going to do it. All right. One more time. How do folks find you?
SPEAKER 03 :
Yeah, sure. Twitter, LinkedIn, or Substack, C. Scott Garlis.
SPEAKER 08 :
Always a joy, Scott. I appreciate you very much and all your wisdom. Thank you very much.
SPEAKER 03 :
John, thanks so much for your time.
SPEAKER 08 :
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SPEAKER 05 :
This isn’t Rage Radio. This is Real Relatable Radio. Back to Rush to Reason.
SPEAKER 08 :
All right, about a minute and a half left of today’s program. Appreciate you all listening, by the way, from Health and Wellness at the 3 o’clock hour, which we do not replay. We play the National Crawford Roundtable on Wednesday night. So if you missed anything during the Health and Wellness hour, you can always go to the website, RushToReason.com, and find it there. And we talk about a lot of interesting and really fun stuff during that hour. And I would encourage you, if you didn’t get a chance to listen to it, go back and listen in. We always have a great time. So lastly, I was going to mention earlier, and I briefly said that the town of Parker, they were because they’ve got a big festival going on on saturday they were basically telling the no king’s day people that hey you can’t hold a rally here we don’t have enough staffing with police and fire and so on to be able to yeah it’s parker days that day and they have enough other things going on in town that they just didn’t have the ability to staff that well They got notice. Originally, the No Kings Day said, OK, that’s fine. Well, then they got notice, I believe, yesterday. They said, you know, we’re still going to hold it. We’re going to be at a private, you know, gathering, private property, whatever. And we’re still going to hold this thing. And now the town of Parker is, I’m guessing, trying to figure out, OK, how do they handle both things? And this just shows you, by the way, I said earlier, does the left care about people? No, they don’t. You’ve got Parker Days going on. It’s a great day to celebrate, have fun, enjoy yourself, all of that. Father’s Day is the day after. And then these knuckleheads are going to have a protest, a no-Kings Day protest, which, by the way, has got to be the dumbest title I’ve ever heard for a protest in the first place because of the things Donald Trump does. He is about as far from being a king as any president we’ve ever had would be. But these are just what knuckleheads do. So I’ll be back tomorrow. Have a great night. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560.
SPEAKER 1 :
Thank you.
