In this episode, professional money manager Bill Gunderson delves into the complexities of the current market landscape as we welcome the month of November. Starting with a comprehensive overview of the stock market’s mixed movements and performances, Bill, alongside financial analyst Barry Kite, navigates through the surprises and challenges investors are facing. This includes a deep dive into the repercussions of international financial decisions, such as the Supreme Court’s pivotal ruling on tariffs imposed during Trump’s administration, and how these may impact both local and global economies.
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He’s been seen on CNBC, the Fox News Channel, and the Fox Business Channel. His articles can be found on MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TheStreet.com, and many other places. He’s the author of the weekly Best Stocks Now newsletter and the inventor of the Best Stocks Now app. He’s president of Gundersen Capital Management. Here is professional money manager Bill Gundersen.
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And welcome to the Monday. It is now November. Welcome to November. This is November 3rd, 2025. It’s the Best Stocks Now show with professional money manager Bill Gunderson, president of Gunderson Capital Management. And I’m here with Barry Kite, our chartered financial analyst. We’ve got a totally mixed up market here so far today with the NASDAQ up 109. Amazon having another big day after a big day on Friday. The NASDAQ’s at 23,831, but the Dow is down 187. I’ll have to look into that, see what’s dragging it, where that anchor is. It’s at 47,375. The S&P is flat right now, totally undecided. I’m seeing small caps sell off today. They’re down 60 basis points. That’s a pretty weak day in the small cap market. The 10-year is up to 4.12, thanks to our friends at the Fed last week. We’ve got oil down a little bit. Gold’s having a good day. Gold is up 1% right now to 4,037. And the one that looks troublesome again… is Bitcoin. Bitcoin is in a downtrend, a number four downtrend now, and it’s threatening to break below its 200-day moving average, which may really test the mettle of the Bitcoin investors. Bitcoin is down today. 2,500 to 107,770. So welcome to today’s Best Stocks Now show with professional money manager Bill Gunderson, president of Gunderson Capital Management. I’m here with Barry Kite, our chartered financial analyst. And we know it’s November. The World Series is now in the books, Barry. And we haven’t seen Jeff Webster ever since they won. I think he’s been celebrating.
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I’m not sure he’s seen his eyelids either. Those were some long, late games.
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And I can’t believe Yamamoto won three games in the World Series. I don’t remember that ever happening.
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First time since Randy Johnson, I think maybe in 2002. I think he started three different games.
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My favorite story on Randy Johnson was they were interviewing him, and he had his baby son with him. He called him the little unit because Randy Johnson was the big unit. He was like 7’3″, or something like that.
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It might have been when they won. Didn’t he win it with the Diamondbacks, I thought, at one point?
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Yeah, the Diamondbacks.
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Because they had him and Schilling, right? Yeah. Him and Kurt Schilling, I think.
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That’s the last time the Diamondbacks did anything, I think. But anyways, the World Series is in the books. The Breeders’ Cup is in the books. The Japanese horse, Forever Young. I should have bet that horse. I mean, that’s a famous Bob Dylan song, Forever Young. He’s a Japanese horse. I was just looking. I wasn’t there. My wife was there. He had won $15 million in purses. I can’t ever remember seeing a horse… But, you know, the purse is now in, like, Dubai and Saudi Arabia.
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You only got to hit a couple of big ones, right? And then you’re in there.
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And then he added, you know, another four to his bankroll. He might be the biggest money-winning horse of all time. Out of Japan. Well, okay, let’s get to the stock market here today. We’re going to have Palantir’s earnings after the close. That’ll provide some excitement. I’m going to give you an update on where we’re at with this earnings season. It’s another blockbuster earnings season. And I’ve said before, we don’t have an earnings problem. It’s the multiple that those earnings are trading at. But with that kind of momentum in earnings, it continues to support momentum in the stock market. And right now, investors continue to close a blind eye, continue to look out of the blind eye towards the multiples. I did a postmortem in the newsletter over the weekend on the year 2000. And I picked on that year because that’s the last time the multiples in the market were this high. And you can see, not that I’m predicting a repeat, but you have to have that in the back of your mind. I was there in the year 2000 and I saw the carnage in the markets when the multiples got up to the levels we’re at today. Not quite on the PE ratio yet. We’re not quite there, but when it comes to price to sales, price to book value, we’re there. And I went back and I looked at what the charts looked like back then, right? And what happened after that. I think that’s a very good history lesson to take a look at. Well, we had kind of a dull day in the market on Friday, but Amazon and Lilly were a couple big winners on Friday. And Amazon is adding on more today. What got into Amazon? I think it’s the layoffs. They’re laying off quite a few people. That’ll trim expenses. But they also did beat with their earnings estimates. One of the big stories this week will be happening at the Supreme Court. And this is probably the biggest financial decision that the Supreme Court has ever faced. They will hear oral arguments on what might be the most important economic case to come before its nine justices. Under consideration is whether President Trump exceeded his authority in imposing tariffs on goods from more than 100 nations without approval from Congress. Countries will be watching. Oh yeah, I’m sure they will. China will be watching. You know, all these, Canada, Mexico, etc. Companies will be watching. And of course, investors will be watching as well. Trump invoked those tariffs under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act, IEEPA, meaning that growing deficits and the hollowing out of our manufacturing base had reached a breaking point. Well, you know what? I mean, it’s pretty hard to argue that… the the damage done to the manufacturing base here in america but maybe that’s just the way it’s meant to be eventually you know you be you’re a manufacturer and then that goes offshore and you focus on other things like ai or whatever the case may be uh i think he also used the fentanyl issue as one of the reason uh uh you know for the tariffs but Obviously, if they rule, if the Supreme Court comes down against Trump, that has all kinds of ramifications, Barry.
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Oh, I mean, my whole thing is I look at it almost where they almost can’t rule against it. And here’s why is because, number one, you’ve collected all of this money. you’ve used some of it likely right um and then of course so now you know you’ve got of course you’ve got to unwind this thing and you know uh getting the money out i mean you probably would have to produce you know go ahead and generate you know sell more bonds right to probably generate some of this particular uh some of these dollars right to give back who gets it the other thing on the side is who gets it does the you know company who paid the tariff get it does the uh you know consumer who also maybe might have paid something at a higher price potentially get it right i mean it’s a well there’s a there’s a million different i mean it’s more complex than by saying they’re they’re not allowed than it is by saying they’re allowed you know if i paid 385 dollars for a little ho locomotive from an american train shop and 35 of that was a tariff am i going to get who’s going to pay me back right for paying that tariff so Yeah, I mean, what would happen in that instance, right, is the easiest way is for them to give it back to the company you say you bought the train from. The trick is, will that company have to give it back to the consumer? And if not, then they’ve just got a much bigger margin, right?
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It’s a total mess. And it has impacted the Chinese economy. They’ll be watching that decision very closely. China’s factory growth cools to 50.6% in October. As their export uncertainty rises, and last week we saw another one, I think it was PMI or something like that, China continues to suffer big time with their economy. And their growth has really slowed. Now, yes, we do finally have kind of a truce for one year. China will halt new export controls on the rare earths. And I know that Trump yesterday on one of the big shows, I think maybe 60 Minutes or something, he said again that he’s not going to allow During a taped interview that aired on Sunday on CBS’ 60 Minutes program, he said that only U.S. customers should have access to the top-end Blackwell chips. You know, they’re going to rename the Blackwell chip, Barry. They’re going to rename it the bargaining chip. Really, that has been our leverage that we’re using. I mean, I guess you could say it’s American technology. It was developed in America. Jensen Wang, you know, keeps that. I wonder where the formula for that Blackwell chip is kept. You don’t want that to get out of the safe in Silicon Valley. But for now, even though we’re getting access to the rare earth, they’re not getting access to those high-powered black oil chips. Okay, we’ll be right back. There’s some news on gold, and then we’ve got to do an earnings update. It’s been some kind of earnings season.
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The city of New Orleans. I’ll be gone in 500 miles when the day is done.
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And welcome back here to the second quarter of today’s Best Stocks Now show. Well, China ended a key retail tax rebate on gold yesterday. And some thought that this might hurt the gold markets that sent the gold Chinese jewelry stocks tumbling. But gold is actually up today and having a very, very good day on gold. So it’s been one of the biggest winners in 2025. And I think it’s been the ultimate hedge against the unknowns of the tariffs. and other global uh… you know conflicts taking place core d elaine mines you’re also seeing uh… some mergers is buying new gold in a seven billion dollar all stock deal we actually owned new gold uh… earlier this year did well with it in the emerging growth portfolio uh… and it’s being bought out you usually don’t see a lot of mergers and acquisitions in that uh… sector But it’s one of the hottest sectors in the market this year. Here’s the one that, you know, I got to really question this move by Kimberly Clark. They’re acquiring Kenview in a deal valuing the Tylenol maker at $49 billion. And we’ll go through some of Ken View’s brands. But the one that obviously is under the microscope right now is Tylenol. It reminds me of when Bayer, a Germany company, bought out Monsanto. and Monsanto had all of that risk with the Roundup, and Bayer bought that and took on that risk. And I just don’t think it’s good. We still don’t know. I don’t know that there’s enough real solid scientific evidence to prove unequivocally that Tylenol during pregnancy is a major contributing factor to having an autistic child. But Kimberly Clark is obviously assuming that liability, which could be a lot. They obviously don’t feel like there’s a connection there or they wouldn’t go ahead and do this. But Kenview has other brands. They have Zyrtec, which is an allergy. They have Skin Health and Beauty, like Aveeno. They have Listerine. You might not realize this. They have Johnson & Johnson’s Baby Care, which you’re also kind of buying the liability there with the baby powder. Neutrogena is another brand, Motrin, Band-Aid, Benadryl. Those are all brands that were spun off from Johnson & Johnson and into the company Kenview. And now Kenview is going to be bought out by Kimberly Clark. And these are consumer staples, and I’ve talked many times about how poorly these stocks have performed because they’re not growth stocks anymore. They basically grow with the population, which is slowing down considerably. So anyways, that’s kind of a head-scratcher to me that they’d want to even take a risk on that liability. Well, you know what? My NVIDIA five-year target price suggests, in fact, I’m going to look it up here, but I see that Loop Capital, which can be a little loopy at times. I mean, they’re not out there as far as Cathie Wood is, but I think they look at longer-term target prices like I do. And Loop Capital put a new Wall Street high $350 price target on the stock. And of course, Nvidia right now is trading at $208. So obviously, that’s more than a one-year target price. And my own work suggests that it could easily get to $8 or $9 trillion in market capitalization five years from now if it were to maintain about a 15% growth rate. Of course, the last five years have been 79%. The most recent quarter has been 54%. So I’m being pretty conservative on my 15% growth rate over the next five years and the multiple that I’m using. But I’m in agreement with Loop Capital on this. And NVIDIA is hitting almost right there at a new all-time high of 208%. which puts it at $5.06 trillion. But Loop Capital raises a lot of eyebrows here today with that eye-popping target price of $350. It doesn’t say, oh, they’re saying over the next 12 to 15 months. I don’t see that. Maybe the next three to five years. I welcome it, but I don’t see it that fast. It’s still our largest position, and it certainly helped our firm over the years, hitting new highs in AUM and all of this and that. NVIDIA was a very good investment. They make the argument, too, which most people do not realize. When you buy Nvidia these days, you’re getting all of these private companies that haven’t gone public. You’re getting a venture capital. You’re getting Anthropic. You’re getting probably OpenAI and all the other investments that Jensen Wang has made. Well, he’s figured out if they can’t buy his chips that he could trade them for some equity. Yeah, and he’s bought equity in some of the most explosive, potentially explosive private companies in the world today. Okay, we’ve got 64% of earnings season now in the books, okay? And we have 83% of the companies. That always just surprises me how they just quarter after quarter, Either the analyst or asleep at the wheel. But, you know, the consensus is the consensus. So it includes the lowest ones and the highest ones. And so that’s another factor. But 83% have beat their EPS estimates. 79% have beat their sales estimates. But here, for me, this is the headline number in this quarter. When we started, before this earnings quarter started, we were expecting 7.3% growth year over year in S&P 500 earnings, which obviously is much better than the population growth. So we’re growing earnings in America a lot faster than we’re growing kids and babies, 7.3%. But right now, with 64% in the books, that number has gone up to 10.7%. That will be the fourth quarter in a row of double digit growth. And I think it’s the 10th quarter in a row of just growth overall. I mean, you got to go back to the COVID year of 2020 to find a quarter where we had negative growth. So this has been one of the most stunning runs really since 2009 in S&P 500 growth that I’ve ever witnessed. And now, you know, you take that growth and where the earnings are today. We’re expecting $340 in earnings next year. Go back to 2009, it was $60 in earnings. Therein lies the reason why we’ve had a bull market since 2008 and 2009. We’ll be right back.
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And the boys upstairs just don’t understand anymore.
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This is Bill Gunderson. Thank you for tuning in to today’s Best Stocks Now, Best Inverse Funds Now show. I put several hours of research in during the wee hours of the morning each day to bring you the very best cutting-edge stories that I can. To get two free weeks of my newsletter, go to GundersonCapital.com. To talk to us about our fee-based only money management services… Call us at 855-611-BEST. Now, back to the second half of the show.
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Call out the instigator because there’s something in the air.
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And welcome back here to the second half of today’s Best Stocks Now show. Well, the earnings season, the beat goes on. 136 S&P 500 companies will report this week. This will be the third big week. This is the heart of earnings season. Two-thirds in the books. And by the end of this week, we’ll have about 80% in the books.
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Keeping your spreadsheet busy, huh?
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Oh, man. And two members of the Dow will report. So who are we going to hear from this week? Well, we’re going to hear from AMD. AMD’s been on a hot run. AMD probably in second place. Them and Broadcom behind NVIDIA as the best chip stocks in the world today. Palantir is going to report after the close. And I would argue that it’s the best software stock out there. It’s not cheap. It was also my top pick in early January when I was back there helping to ring the bell for the NASDAQ close, the NASDAQ ceremony. And I was interviewed. I’d like to find that somewhere. It’s out there somewhere. I was interviewed by the Granite Shares CEO yesterday. He asked me for my top picks, and Palantir was my top pick. They’ll report today. Pfizer will report this week, one of the biggest duds in the Dow. We’ve got Realty Income, Qualcomm, Shopify, McDonald’s. Uber, SMCI, we’ve got BP, Lucid, Airbnb, DraftKings. Boy, those betting stocks have really been hammered with the new prediction markets have really clobbered those things. We backed out of them quite some time ago. And let’s see. So anyways, pretty big week. Today’s Palantir, that’s the big one today. Tomorrow the big one is AMD. And then McDonald’s on Wednesday. So it’ll be still an interesting week. of earnings, and of course it’s been a very good earnings season. Now, some stocks in the news today. A lot of it continues to surround a couple of themes. Infrastructure, AI infrastructure, and generating the power thereof. IREN, R-I-E-N, jumps 18% on a $9.7 billion increase Multi-year cloud contract with Microsoft. It’s hard to get a handle for me on IREN, on exactly what they do, but that’s a big contract.
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It’s a huge contract. I mean, look how much the stock was not long ago, and that contract would have been more than the company would have been worth.
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Well, the description in Marketsmith is IREN is an Australian-based Bitcoin mining company. But then they’ve added here recently, they operate real assets, data center infrastructure by renewable energy. Well, I got to believe that that’s nuclear. It’s certainly not windmills outside these data farms. But again, they get a very big contract. It’s up 13%. It’s now a $13.5 billion company. And their sales have really been blossoming here. The last four quarters of sales for IREN, sales up 53%, sales up 173%, sales up 166%, and sales up 255%. Those are really good, accelerating sales. That’s not Bitcoin mining. There’s a lot more to that story than Bitcoin mining.
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Well, and it dovetails perfectly into this current, you know, idea of AI and needing power, right, to actually, you know, fuel these data centers. And, you know, I mean, one of the biggest power sucks of the last, you know, 15, 20 years at one point in time was Bitcoin mining. And they, you know, a lot of those Bitcoin miners have learned to, I mean, it was at one point in time they were making their own power companies, right? They were securing their own power. They’ve done, like you said, whether it’s renewables or they’ve had to bring that cost down, at least for a lot of those miners. And so they’ve been in this business for a little while.
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You know what I mean? I guess so, yeah. Okay, what’s Kathy buying here this week? Kathy Woods. You know, I’ve seen a pattern. She kind of sells her good stocks and buys bad stocks. That’s just my… from a from a distance looking uh she adds to her ntla that’s you know that’s gene editing and xyz positions and she trims positions in two very good stocks so far and Shopify, she continues to increase her position in DraftKings. Man, we got out of DraftKings. It’s just been decimated since we sold it. So anyways, that’s what Kathy’s doing. And I believe that eventually it’s just a matter of time before the stock’s out on the limb that she stands on, way out on the limb. That’s the most, especially with this market. With the PE ratios that we’re at right now, that is such a dangerous limb to be standing on with your portfolio. Like our emerging growth portfolio, I think is 80% cash right now through natural attrition. As those high growth speculative and smaller cap stocks as the market gets more expensive and more expensive, they become more vulnerable and the small cap stocks are starting to fall apart a little bit too if you look at the charts of those. The crypto, which is out there on that same limb, is getting very weak and even threatening to break below its 200-day moving average right now. So I would be very careful in the quantum stocks. smaller nuclear stocks, the rare earths, all of that stuff that’s out there on the horizon. And it has not helped that interest rates have gone up to 4.11, which puts more pressure on the multiples that are already high. And, you know, you’ve got to believe that Jerome Powell’s aware of what’s been going on. It’s reminiscent of 2021, the sugar high that the market went on. But then he went on a binge of raising interest rates. So there are differences between then and now. But I just would not be too far out on the limb right now. with those highly speculative long-term stocks. And then you get these stocks that all of a sudden come out of nowhere, like I-R-E-N. Here’s another one that is almost the same exact kind of story. Cypher Mining. So I think of coal cars and a train bringing out the coal out of that mine. No, it’s Bitcoin mining. It jumps on a 15-year lease with AWS. Okay, that’s a $5.5 billion contract. So I had to add Cypher, C-I-F-H-E-R to the app this morning as they get a 15 year lease agreement from Amazon Web Services to provide turnkey space and power for AI workloads. This is taking place in West Texas. which is more known for the Permian Basin and crude than for data farms. But anyway, Cypher is flying. And then the other interesting thing, all of a sudden you see a lot of these stocks that were just penny stocks, really. I mean, $1.05, $1.08. They’re moving up the chain. First American uranium changes its stock symbol and up lists to the next market higher from the pink sheet. So there’s a lot going on. You know, whenever there’s a hot theme in the market, which is data center right now and renewable energy and rare earth, those are probably the three hot themes. Any company that has any kind of relationship to those sectors will make all kinds of news, trying to get in on the speculation to move their own stock up. And this is a good example of that. And I’m going to add this stock to the app. I think I already did. N-I-O-M-F, just for fun. It’s a uranium stock.
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Yeah, and some of these other companies almost kind of become name droppers during their conference call. Like, hey, we’ve got to deal with NVIDIA. We’ve got to deal with… Well, but that also validates the story.
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Like, cipher mining, okay, I never really heard of cipher mining. But they get a 15-year contract with Amazon. I’ve certainly heard of Amazon. Right, yeah. And this other one gets a big deal coming from Iran. So you’ve got to sit up and take notice of these stocks. I just hope there’s enough energy to go around at some time in the future that we’ll still be able to run our homes and our microwaves and our TVs and things like that. And it’s not being all eaten up by data centers and A.I., Okay, we’re going to come back, put Warren Buffett under the microscope because Berkshire Hathaway reported earnings on Saturday. How has Berkshire been doing here recently versus the S&P 500? We’ll be right back.
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And welcome back here to the final segment of today’s Best Stocks Now show. Well, let’s see. Berkshire Hathaway reported earnings.
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over the weekend they always report on a saturday that’s always been the tradition there at the house of buffett in omaha nebraska and they came in with earnings uh let’s see here q3 profit jumps 34 and the cash swells to a record $382 billion. Okay, so what percent of the market cap, that’s got to be a very high percentage of the market cap of $382 billion. That’s about 30, he’s 35%, almost 40% in cash. And obviously, I mean… He can’t buy anything to buy. No, I mean, it’s a multiple problem, which I’ve been talking about a lot. in the newsletter, but sitting on that hoard of cash and being limited by the size and the scope of his fund, that has really hurt his performance over the years. He’s trailing the S&P 500 now by quite a wide margin. By how much? Well, consider that Berkshire Hathaway is up 0% year to date. And a very strong market where you have the S&P 500 year-to-date up 16% somewhere in there. Year-to-date, yeah, 16.3%. And Buffett’s up zero. And over the last 10 years, the S&P has delivered 23% per year average, which is way above normal, okay? But it is what it is, all right? Is it fair to compare Berkshire Hathaway to the S&P 500? I think so. It’s all based on a relative basis. You have all these different options to be invested in. And you can take, you know, you’re not taking single stock risk with Berkshire Hathaway. I mean, he owns a pretty good portfolio. But you’re taking on more risk than spreading out, I think, than the 500 S&P. He’s averaged 12.9% over the last 10 years, which isn’t bad. You’re doubling your money every six years at that rate. But the S&P has been 22.9%. Yeah, and the cash drag has been above.
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big portion of that. I mean, if you’ve got that cash drag, you can only make so much, even him, he can only make so much in interest off of that cash.
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Yeah, I mean, he does, he loans the cash out, he’ll buy things like this. But it also points to the fact, I did a story earlier last week about how value investing is that theme of investing that methodology of investing has vastly underperformed we use the vanguard value index as a proxy for value investing and really the only way you’re going to squeeze inefficiency out of these giant companies is really digging deep and finding value that’s not being recognized by the market and trying to bring it to the market’s attention hey they’ve got this asset over here that’s not even included you’re basically getting this asset for free when you buy this stock But, you know, I mean, it’s really, it’s the Conoco. Not Conoco, but he owns that other big oil company. Oh, Oxy. Occidental Petroleum. And, you know, it’s just hard. It’s difficult. Where are you going to get Alpha from? Alpha is outperformance over the S&P 500. In such a highly efficient area of the market, and an area of the market. He doesn’t own any AI infrastructure or nuclear or any of the hot topics of today. And who knows, maybe over time they’ll underperform Buffett. But over the last 10 years, and that brings up the question, I get a lot of portfolios transferred to us, and many of them hold Berkshire Hathaway. If you’re with one of the big firms, they obviously love Berkshire Hathaway. It’s not too hard to sell or talk you into having exposure to one of the great investors of all time in your portfolio, but it’s become a pretty sluggish stock. And it’s heavily invested still in a lot of low-growth industries, the railroads, for instance, you know. I mean, he’s, what is it, Burlington Northern that he has a big investment in and a lot of insurance companies, et cetera. And that just has not been a very fertile area of the market in recent years. And that shows up not only in the performance of the value of, uh… indexes but the famous value investors like buffett now when you have a 401k at work they usually include some value uh… different flavors small cap value mid cap value large cap value when i get any value funds uh… that transfer to me from other firms, I cut them. I cut them out of the portfolio. Now, value might come back into favor at some point in time. It certainly did. The last time that value really came back into favor was after the dot-com sell-off In 01 and 02 of 2000, a lot of people turned their focus to learning value investing at that point in time.
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And there’s been a lot of head fakes since. I mean, there was a quick fight to value names in early 2021 that fizzled out pretty quickly and went back to growth mode before bear market of 2022.
SPEAKER 03 :
And there was a major tectonic shift in 2003 and 2004 to value, and guess what happened in 2008 and 2009?
SPEAKER 04 :
Yeah, a lot of your value names got crushed.
SPEAKER 03 :
They absolutely got hammered. The Bear Stearns of the world, the Lehman Brothers of the world, many of those had single-digit PE ratios. Some of the banks that went down, Wachovia, the value investors got crushed in 08 and 09, which is why I like value as half of my equation and the other half is momentum. And stocks that are in favor, I think you have to have both of those. I don’t think you can just limit yourself to just value investing or to just momentum investing. For me, the answer is right in the middle. And that was the whole theory behind the Best Stocks Now app, which weights them equally. Okay, we’re out of time. Big week of earnings coming up. We’re going to have a lot of reports starting tomorrow. We’ll see how Palantir does after the close to set up an appointment with us. at Gundersen Capital Management to discuss your portfolio, give us a call at 855-611-BEST. 855-611-BEST. Or you can go on our website at GundersenCapital.com and also get a four-week trial to what we have to offer. Have a great day, everybody.
SPEAKER 01 :
This show is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Bill Gunderson or clients of Gunderson Capital Management may have long or short positions in stocks mentioned during the show. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Gunderson Capital Management is a fee-based registered investment advisory firm. All accounts are held at Charles Schwab. Schwab is a member of SIPC and FINRA.
