HOUR 1 Hour 1 of Rush to Reason hits the ground running as John Rush welcomes Steve House, former Colorado GOP Chair and longtime health-care executive, for a rapid-fire look at the future of AI, medicine, and education. What happens when artificial intelligence reads your bloodwork better than your doctor? Could peptides disrupt Big Pharma the way streaming crushed cable? And why have drug launch prices jumped from $2,100 in 2008 to over $180,000 today? Steve breaks down the explosion of AI tools like ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Quarrio—platforms that can analyze symptoms, generate medical summaries, explain drug interactions, and
SPEAKER 06 :
This is Rush to Reason.
SPEAKER 14 :
You are going to shut your damn yapper and listen for a change because I got you pegged, sweetheart. You want to take the easy way out because you’re scared. And you’re scared because if you try and fail, there’s only you to blame. Let me break this down for you. Life is scary. Get used to it. There are no magical fixes. With your host, John Rush.
SPEAKER 21 :
My advice to you is to do what your parents did! Get a job, Turk! You haven’t made everybody equal. You’ve made them the same, and there’s a big difference!
SPEAKER 03 :
Let me tell you why you’re here. You’re here because you know something. What you know you can’t explain, but you feel it. You’ve felt it your entire life, that there’s something wrong with the world. You don’t know what it is, but it’s there. It is this feeling that has brought you to me.
SPEAKER 12 :
Are you crazy? Am I? Or am I so sane that you just blew your mind?
SPEAKER 06 :
It’s Rush to Reason with your host, John Rush, presented by Cub Creek Heating and Air Conditioning.
SPEAKER 09 :
Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. Thanks for listening today. Appreciate it. Jersey Joe, what’s going on today, sir?
SPEAKER 16 :
Oh, John, we’ve got a whole bunch of stuff, some of which we probably won’t ever get to. But how about we start off with some fun statistics? Sure. Now, John, in a very large company, I’m talking 500,000 people, You want to guess what the annual fired for cause statistic is, what percentage of, if you had 1,000 people, what percentage are fired for cause in a year?
SPEAKER 09 :
Fired for cause, 10%?
SPEAKER 16 :
Typically three to five. Some can be as high as 10, but three to five is fairly, for a well-run company that does a good job of hiring. And fired for cause can be, you know, falsifying your time sheet.
SPEAKER 09 :
You’re tardy so many times, blah, blah, blah.
SPEAKER 16 :
You know, absentee, you know, sexual harassment.
SPEAKER 09 :
Right.
SPEAKER 16 :
driving a company vehicle drunk, you know, three to five percent.
SPEAKER 09 :
Okay.
SPEAKER 16 :
Now, the federal government has 1.6 million. So if we take the midpoint of three to five percent, which would be four, four percent of 1.6 million would be 64,000 federal employees per year should be fired for cause.
SPEAKER 09 :
Right. If you take what’s going on in the corporate world.
SPEAKER 16 :
Right. So now that’s if they were in, if it ran like a business. Now, The General Accountability Office published a stat last week. GAO, 2021, you want to guess instead of 64,000 people, how many federal employees got fired for cause?
SPEAKER 09 :
I don’t know, 10,000?
SPEAKER 1 :
4,040.
SPEAKER 09 :
4,040 is 0.25%, one quarter of 1%.
SPEAKER 16 :
In other words, if you go to work for the feds, you’re guaranteed a job. guaranteed a job for life.
SPEAKER 09 :
I mean, really, I guess the question would be, Joe, even those ones that got fired, I mean, what did they actually do to get fired? Cause it takes a lot.
SPEAKER 16 :
It takes a lot. They’re protected by the union. Uh, you know, they have a civil service employees. And by the way, that doesn’t include the military. That, that was just civil service employees. That was no military place. So that was our, that’s how broken the federal government is. Um, Let’s talk about states that have the highest and lowest people on percentage of their population on SNAP. You want to guess what percentage of the people in, let’s say, New York State collect SNAP benefits?
SPEAKER 09 :
As far as a percentage of population goes?
SPEAKER 16 :
Percentage of population receiving SNAP benefits.
SPEAKER 09 :
If I know that the national average is over 10% in New York, I’ll bet it’s 15%.
SPEAKER 16 :
John, spot on. It is 14.91%. You missed it by 0.8%. New Mexico leads the nation at 21.4%.
SPEAKER 09 :
I was going to say, I almost said 20, so I wasn’t far off on that one either, Joe.
SPEAKER 16 :
Yeah, so in New Mexico, it’s more than one out of five people. In New York City, it’s one out of seven. Illinois is right there, one out of seven. Now, if you want to guess what states have the lowest percentage of their population on SNAP?
SPEAKER 09 :
Texas?
SPEAKER 16 :
No, Texas is kind of middle. Here we go. The lowest is Wyoming, four points. So if John is listening, 4.6% in Wyoming, Utah 5.05%, New Hampshire 5.3%, Kansas 6%, Idaho 6%, Montana 7%, North Dakota 7%, Nebraska 7%, Arkansas, Minnesota 7.5%. So that’s both ends of the spectrum in terms of SNAP benefits.
SPEAKER 09 :
Interesting.
SPEAKER 16 :
So those are fun statistics there.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yeah, well, and we could delve into that one, Joe, for the rest of the time that you’re on here. I mean, that has a lot to do with the mentality of the, you know, I shouldn’t say that, the attitude of the state they’re in, you know, the entitlement is what I’m trying to get at, that entitlement attitude of, you know, the state that they’re in and so on is where a lot of that comes into play, if you ask me.
SPEAKER 16 :
Yeah, work ethic, culture, you know, right. Some more statistics, and this one is a little, there’s a little demographic bias in this one. Now, United Van Lines every year publishes their states losing population, but here’s the bias. They’re only counting people who are affluent enough to hire them to move. I mean, if you’re going to move, and I moved from Colorado to New Jersey, I think it cost me $13,000. If you’re a young couple in an apartment someplace, you’re going to rent a U-Haul truck.
SPEAKER 10 :
You’re doing it yourself.
SPEAKER 16 :
Right.
SPEAKER 10 :
That’s right.
SPEAKER 16 :
But when United Van Line gives these statistics of which states, these are the top end. I’m going to have to say, if I had to guess, I’m going to say these people are predominantly probably in the top 25% of income. That would make sense. Because if you’re going to pay between no less than $6,000 up to $13,000 to move your household, you’re probably moving a four-bedroom house. And you’re probably fairly well-to-do, upper-middle class, to say the least.
SPEAKER 10 :
Right, right, right.
SPEAKER 16 :
You want to guess what the top five states are that lost population last year, according to United Van Lines?
SPEAKER 09 :
Top five, New York, California.
SPEAKER 16 :
Yep, two for two.
SPEAKER 09 :
Colorado. Nope. Not on the list. Washington.
SPEAKER 16 :
No. All right, I’ll go easy on it. The state I’m living in, New Jersey.
SPEAKER 09 :
Oh, Jersey. Oh, I wouldn’t have thought of that one.
SPEAKER 16 :
Yeah, well, the only thing that saved New Jersey, New Jersey, by the way, was number one. New Jersey was number one. I did not know that. Illinois, New York, California, and Massachusetts. What do those five states have in common, John?
SPEAKER 09 :
All Democrat run.
SPEAKER 16 :
They’re all blue states. Solid blue. I mean, not even perfect.
SPEAKER 09 :
They are deep blue states.
SPEAKER 16 :
Deep blue states. New Jersey, Illinois, New York, California, Massachusetts. Top the list of the top five states that lost population last year. And again, This is the demographic that could afford it.
SPEAKER 09 :
And the only thing saving us here in Colorado, Joe, is just our geography and climate.
SPEAKER 16 :
Geography, climate, and the fact that you’re actually still getting people moving out of places like California.
SPEAKER 09 :
Right, coming here where it’s cheaper.
SPEAKER 16 :
Right. So you’re getting some, you know, what I would call backfill. Yep, that’s right. Backfill. Let’s see. You know if Charlie had time to load some of those clips? I’ve got them with me. I’m okay. How about we play another? Here’s more statistics. Here’s Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins. And by the way, SNAP food stamps falls under the Department of Agriculture. Here she is telling Laura Ingram about what they’ve discovered in terms of who’s getting SNAP benefits. Okay.
SPEAKER 02 :
20 plus others did not, and we’re suing, we’re in a litigation right now. But of the 29 that complied, what we have found is staggering. Half a million people getting benefits two times under the same name. 5,000 dead people. 80% of the able-bodied Americans, meaning they can work, they don’t have small children at home, they’re not taking care of an elderly parent, they can work and they choose not to work, of course, because they’re getting significant benefits from the taxpayer. So this light, Laura, that has now been shined on what is perhaps one of the most corrupt dysfunctional programs in American history that we are working now. Very big announcements coming next week on this. We are cracking down. We now have a plan to fix it. And we’re really, really excited about doing that for the American people.
SPEAKER 09 :
I want, Joe, as you heard in the last hour, I want some stipulations on SNAP that I’m doubting they’re even going to implement, but I wish they would.
SPEAKER 16 :
I didn’t hear it, John, but… I want drug testing.
SPEAKER 09 :
I want more items on the list of what you can’t buy and so on. In other words, you shouldn’t be allowed to buy a T-bone steak, Joe.
SPEAKER 16 :
I agree. I absolutely agree. By the way, John, one guy, she was talking about 500,000 people getting duplicate. One guy was getting six SNAP benefits a month. He was registered under two different names in three different states. He was getting… And once you register, you don’t even have to go to those states because they reload your cards automatically. So, you know, like if you could register in Colorado as John Rush and then you register as J.D. Rush and then you go up to Wyoming and do it again under those two names and then go across the border over to Kansas and do the same thing. This one guy was getting SNAP benefits six times over.
SPEAKER 09 :
Wow.
SPEAKER 16 :
And that’s the extent of the corruption they were finding.
SPEAKER 09 :
Amazing.
SPEAKER 16 :
Yeah. And as long as we’re talking about changes in the big, beautiful bill, some of the things that the Democrats were holding, trying to hold the government hostage for were what they call, well, health care. Well, you know, everybody’s saying Bernie’s. Well, you know, we’re going to 20 million Americans are going to see their health care premiums double. And somebody will say, well, 50,000 Americans are going to die. Well, here’s what Senator Ron Johnson, his rebuttal, he said the truth is that 22 of the 24 million Americans who buy their insurance on the exchange will continue to receive those subsidies. The only thing that happened is during COVID, the Democrats bumped the subsidy amount from 80% to 90% because we had tens of millions of people unemployed. And they also bumped the income limit from 200% of the federal poverty level to 400% because You might have had 400% of the poverty level last year, but you might be unemployed this year. So they said, will grandfather you win even though you had 400%? Well, in 2022, as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, they extended those enhanced subsidies. John, do you know what 400% of the poverty level is for a family of four?
SPEAKER 09 :
Well, I think it’s upwards of like 75 grand a year or so, isn’t it?
SPEAKER 1 :
128,000.
SPEAKER 16 :
128. Wow, even higher than I thought.
SPEAKER 09 :
And the Democrats were fighting—
SPEAKER 16 :
to continue to allow people making $128,600 a year to continue to buy subsidized health insurance. Now, if they got knocked off the exchange and the subsidies, Does that mean they couldn’t buy health insurance? No. Most of these people, John, have access to health insurance through your employer.
SPEAKER 09 :
That’s right. And so the old, you know, I talk about all the time, Joe, even the SNAP benefit recipients, money is fungible. So even though a SNAP benefit recipient can’t buy, you know, alcohol and tobacco, they can because when you’re subsidizing their food, they’ve got other money that they now have available to go do that. The same is true with what you’re talking about.
SPEAKER 16 :
Right. And if Crawford Media makes available, let’s say I’m going to pick, let’s say, Charlie, yeah, we have a group health insurance plan that we subsidize, but Charlie, it’s going to be $40 a week, and your deductible is going to be X and Y. And then Charlie can look at a subsidized program on the exchange, and it’s half the monthly, instead of $40 a week, it’s $20 a week.
SPEAKER 10 :
Right.
SPEAKER 16 :
and instead of having a $4,000 deductible, it’s a $2,000 deductible. He’s going to tell Crawford Media, thanks, but no thanks, I’m going to buy it. So if he gets knocked off the exchange, does that mean Charlie’s not going to have health insurance?
SPEAKER 09 :
No, he’ll get it somewhere else.
SPEAKER 16 :
Or he’s going to get it from his employer.
SPEAKER 09 :
Absolutely. He’s got multiple options.
SPEAKER 16 :
Multiple options to have health insurance. So this thing about – and Senator Johnson goes on, some of these people were paying – literally nothing for their health insurance. So if you’re paying nothing and it goes to $10 a month, well, that’s an infinite increase.
SPEAKER 10 :
That’s right. That’s exactly right.
SPEAKER 16 :
You were paying nothing and that’s going to cost you $10 a month. And if you were paying $10 a month and it now goes to $20 a month, yes, it doubled, but come on, big deal. Your contribution went from $10 a month to $20 a month, that is not a hardship.
SPEAKER 09 :
That’s right.
SPEAKER 16 :
And that’s what the Democrats are making a— They are.
SPEAKER 09 :
Well, you know them. They get a talking point, and they run with it.
SPEAKER 16 :
Exactly. John, anyway, just so— It is frustrating.
SPEAKER 09 :
It is very. No, I understand, Joe, because it is. And the other problem is what you just said, we as a party don’t communicate well enough.
SPEAKER 16 :
No, I’ve said this when we’ve talked, that Republicans do a lousy job of marketing and communication and getting the message out.
SPEAKER 09 :
We expect people to know without telling them.
SPEAKER 16 :
Yeah. You know, nature pours a vacuum. We create a vacuum. Republicans create a vacuum and allow the Democrats to fill the vacuum. And they’ll fill it with all sorts of nonsense. And we do little, if anything, other than shows like yours. But our political leaders do not, other than guys like Senator Ron Johnson— and how many people are going to read what he wrote about the Obamacare exchange abuses. You didn’t hear about that, John. Oh, no. 99% of the people in this country are not going to hear what Senator Ron Johnson, now he tried his very best, but it needs to come from somebody higher up in the administration, besides a senator here or there, because we allow the Democrats to control the narrative.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yep, we do, and we do it all the time, Joe.
SPEAKER 16 :
All the time, and it’s much to our detriment.
SPEAKER 09 :
I mean, I had the same complaint. I know we talked about this a while ago, and this is where even Bob Duco and I disagree. I mean, we did a really poor job of messaging what’s going on with the White House itself. I mean, that remodel and the fact that we’re not paying for it as taxpayers, and it’s going to be a big savings to taxpayers and so on. And Bob kind of felt like, well, you know, it’s really not the job of the president or whatever to actually always fight the Democrats. Well— It is, though, Joe. I mean, at the end of the day, that’s the battle. That’s who we know we’re fighting. In turn, let’s go ahead and fight it in the right way. We did that one completely wrong. And in a time where affordability is a huge issue, we just go through an election and, you know, and again, it’s pocket change. I get, you know, when it comes to everything going on in the country, but to the average person that’s struggling. You know, $300 million at the White House is a big deal. And if they think that’s just coming out of, you know, their pocketbook, Joe, it’s a big deal. It’s not, but we didn’t message that well enough.
SPEAKER 16 :
No. And, John, all the liberal websites are playing this up as if it were tax dollars. Trump is spending $300 million to build a ballroom while your kids are— While you’re starving. While your kids don’t have enough to eat. They think the two are related, and there’s no connection between the two.
SPEAKER 09 :
There’s zero connection, but we didn’t—in fact, before the first loader showed up to start working on that thing, Joe, that should have been a message sent out.
SPEAKER 16 :
Yep. And there should be.
SPEAKER 09 :
In fact, I’ve said it this way, Joe. The RNC should have put a commercial together and should have sent it out there basically saying, listen, this is what we need. This is what the country needs. This is how far behind other nations we are in regards to our own White House, the people’s house, if you would. I mean, Joe, I could have written a commercial and had this thing, you know, play from coast to coast. And RNC should have spent money on that.
SPEAKER 16 :
John, you’re absolutely right. You know, the RNC, I think, makes a strategic mistake. They save all their powder, if you will, their advertising dollars for the election year. But by the time that comes around, they’re already – they’ve allowed themselves to be put so far behind.
SPEAKER 09 :
We’re not playing offense, Joe. We play defense.
SPEAKER 16 :
Right. And I think the RNC, if they would spend money on key issues – That’s right. Not every week, John.
SPEAKER 09 :
No, but do it on a quarterly basis or something along those lines. In this case, that should have been run – I mean, even if it’s simultaneous as soon as the construction starts, something to let the American public know what’s going on.
SPEAKER 16 :
Yeah, do a two- or three-day blitz, you know, and you hit the three or four major and do a two- or three-day blitz. And then, fine, you got the message out. If people didn’t hear it in three days, they’re not going to hear it.
SPEAKER 09 :
That’s right. You know, in that case, Joe, you might only spend, I mean, there’s about, I want to say it’s upwards of $80 million in their coffers right now. Okay, so spend 10% of that.
SPEAKER 16 :
Yeah, spend 10%, and that way you won’t be so far behind when we actually get into election year.
SPEAKER 09 :
Correct. And frankly, I do think even this last election, would it have helped tremendously? I don’t know about tremendously. Would it have helped? I think it would have helped some. Would it have turned some of these things around? No, Joe, probably not. But it gets people to think, well, wait a minute, that’s not what the talking heads on all of the major networks are saying. This commercial is basically opposite of what I’m hearing everywhere else. Maybe I should investigate this a little bit more.
SPEAKER 16 :
Yeah, and by the way, and the networks, you know, the mainstream, the national, they keep referring to Democrats are fighting to prevent, they say, to prevent the loss of Obamacare subsidies. There is no loss. The subsidies will still be there at the original 80% level. It’s going back to what it was. But you won’t ever hear, John, you know, I watch two news shows in the morning, two in the night. I watch a different national news program in the morning and a different news. And they all say fighting to retain or preserve or prevent the loss of Obamacare subsidies. The Obamacare subsidies are still going to be there at the original 80% level. Right. But you’re not going to get them if you’re 400% of the poverty level, and you’re not going to get the 90%, you’re going to get the 80%. But there is going to be no loss of Obamacare subsidies.
SPEAKER 09 :
Correct.
SPEAKER 16 :
They will still be there.
SPEAKER 09 :
That’s right. Good point.
SPEAKER 16 :
All right. A couple of quick more things. I know we’re running out of time.
SPEAKER 09 :
You’re fine.
SPEAKER 16 :
Two weeks ago, I think we talked, there was a, we all know what an NGO, non-government organization, they get taxpayer dollars. First thing they do, by the way, is appoint, they give themselves a huge salary. Then they make a donation back to the political party in power that they gave them the grant. Like Stacey Abrams in Georgia, she opened an NGO with $100 in the bank and she got $2 billion from the Obama administration. The first thing she did was gave herself a $300. Anyway, two weeks ago, NGO in St. Louis, A woman, she got $20 million in federal funds to feed people. She spent $11 million of the $20 million on herself and her boyfriend. Last week they uncovered in Minneapolis an NGO, a Somalian restaurant in Minneapolis. They were getting, I’m trying to remember the exact number, They said they were feeding 4,000 to 6,000 children a day in Minneapolis. It turned out they were feeding 40 people a day, and most of them were paying customers.
SPEAKER 09 :
Unreal.
SPEAKER 16 :
Paying customers, and that’s how broken our system is. So the fraud within the NGO – Huge. Let me think. I actually want to give the correct – Yeah, they ran. It was one little restaurant, John. I mean, it was a little brick, you know, typical like luncheonette you go to. And they claim they were feeding 4000 kids a day out of that one little restaurant.
SPEAKER 10 :
Amazing.
SPEAKER 16 :
What else do we have here? How about we play the clip of let’s see. How about we play the clip of New York City Governor Katha Hochul five days after the election? telling the world that, no, you’re not going to get the free buses that Mondami promised you.
SPEAKER 09 :
We can do that. Let me play that right now.
SPEAKER 04 :
Mondami made his first two appointments for his incoming administration. Dean Fulahan has been tapped as first deputy mayor. He served as budget director and first deputy mayor to Bill de Blasio. Mondami also named Elle Biscard Church as his chief of staff, the same role she had in his assembly office. And one of his many campaign promises, free and fast buses, but Governor Hochul says she’s not ready to move forward with the plan. Addie Guajardo takes a look at the challenges Mamdani faces.
SPEAKER 19 :
New York Governor Kathy Hochul is casting doubt on Mayor Legzor Momdani’s campaign promise to make buses fast and free. The governor speaking to New York One while in Puerto Rico over the weekend.
SPEAKER 23 :
I cannot set forth a plan right now that takes money out of a system that relies on the fares of the buses and the subways. But can we find a path to make it more affordable for people who need help? Of course we can.
SPEAKER 19 :
Mamdani stayed on track Monday and touted his vision for the city.
SPEAKER 09 :
We can end it there. Easy enough.
SPEAKER 16 :
But here’s my point. First of all, for those that don’t know, the New York City buses are not part of New York City. They’re part of the New York State metro.
SPEAKER 09 :
That’s right. Much like RTD here, Mayor Johnston cannot tell RTD what to do when it comes to bus service in Denver.
SPEAKER 16 :
Right. But here’s my point. New York State Governor Kathy Hochul knew a month ago that what he was promising was nonsense and he couldn’t do it. Why did she wait till five days after the election to tell the voters that, oh, by the way, what Mondami is? Strategic. Strategic. Yeah. She knew he was a Democrat candidate. She’s a Democrat governor. She could have told the people five days before the election that, hey, he can’t deliver what he’s promising. But she waited till five days after. One last one. How about we have what the Chicago Teachers Union spent $173,000 on?
SPEAKER 09 :
I think you had sent me this before. It’s not even in their state. They spent money on some sort of recording studio out of state, right?
SPEAKER 16 :
Yeah, I sent you. Do you have the link?
SPEAKER 09 :
I do. Can we play it? Yep.
SPEAKER 17 :
Can anybody tell me why the Chicago Teachers Union needs a recording studio in New Mexico? In new documents, they spent $173,000 at 265 Sunset Road in Albuquerque. Their accounting describes it as a recording studio. Zillow shows it also has a pool. CTU described the payment as part of representational activities, which legally must be associated with the negotiation, administration and enforcement of collective bargaining agreements. With an audit, CTU might be able to explain how a recording studio a thousand miles away helps them with that. But they haven’t released one of those in five years. Any questions, teachers?
SPEAKER 09 :
In other words, Joe, we’re just going to take the money, do whatever we want.
SPEAKER 16 :
That’s right. And by the way, it’s the teacher’s union. But you might want to record a political ad. You might want to record something for your members. But, John, you can rent a recording studio by the hour in Chicago for $120 an hour.
SPEAKER 09 :
Joe, anymore with AI, you can tell AI what you want it to do and what voice you want it to be in, and it does it itself. You don’t even need a recording studio anymore to do that.
SPEAKER 16 :
So on what justification?
SPEAKER 09 :
Zero.
SPEAKER 16 :
It’s a getaway.
SPEAKER 09 :
It’s a getaway with a pool.
SPEAKER 16 :
It’s a getaway with the pool for the head of the Chicago Teachers Union in Albuquerque, New Mexico. And by the way, the Chicago Teachers Union doesn’t record that many messages or promotion or PR pieces. So just more Chicago corruption. You’ve got to shake your head at the amount of— Unbelievable.
SPEAKER 09 :
That’s total corruption.
SPEAKER 16 :
Total corruption. Absolutely.
SPEAKER 09 :
Absolutely. Joe, as always, man, appreciate you. All right, John, thank you. All right, you bet. Have a great evening. We appreciate your time, as always. Geno’s Auto Service coming up next, and Geno’s wants to take care of you and your vehicle as we head down the stretch into winter. Talk to Geno’s today. Go to genosautoservice.com, and Geno’s starts with a J.
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SPEAKER 09 :
This is Rush to Reason on KLZ 560. All right, Rush to Reason, Debra’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. One thing I haven’t had a chance to get to yet that one of you sent me is RTD looking at exploring some of its extra space in lots to be turned into affordable housing. I’ll probably get to that early next week because I’m not going to have time today to finish that, I don’t think. Scott Garlis joining us now. Scott, how are you?
SPEAKER 15 :
Hey, John, I’m well. How are you?
SPEAKER 09 :
I am good. How is everything in the markets, I guess is what I should say next.
SPEAKER 15 :
Yeah, it’s one day great, one day bad. It’s just, yeah, there’s a lot of scuttlebutt. Michael Burry, he is famous for having gotten short a bunch of banking stocks during the financial crisis. He’s made some claims. He recently put on some put positions, which is he’s purchased the right to sell the shares of a stock at a price at a future date. notably in Palantir, which is a big AI beneficiary, and NVIDIA, which is a big AI beneficiary. So CNBC went out and reported his short that he put on in Palantir by buying these puts was around $912 million. His hedge fund that he just closed only had $150 million under management. Burry came out and said, Actually, they’re wrong. It was only $9 million, which is still a lot of money. But he bought them for two years down the road. But so all of a sudden, there are a bunch of people that are jumping on this thing, oh, my God, fraud, all these other things, and claiming there are all these terrible things happening in AI, and it’s all going to be a big bubble and a collapse.
SPEAKER 10 :
Yeah, it isn’t.
SPEAKER 15 :
Look. And Burry’s been wrong ever since the financial crisis. He came out in the beginning of 2023 and told everybody to sell everything. Look, the one thing that the naysayers keep saying is, hey, I don’t know when it’s going to pop, but at some point a bubble’s going to pop. Well, I mean, yeah, that’s not really helpful.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yeah, that’s not a crystal ball by any means. I mean, you could say there’s going to be trends up and down on pretty much anything out there. It doesn’t mean that you’re right.
SPEAKER 15 :
Yeah, I mean, yes. You could say, well, it might be five years, but at some point, like, okay. I mean, this sort of brings me back to… So one of my favorite sayings about the stock market is, you know, the pessimists sound smart because they throw out all sorts of crazy things to you, but the optimists are the ones that make money because the pessimists give you every reason why you shouldn’t invest.
SPEAKER 09 :
That’s right, why you shouldn’t do this, why you shouldn’t do that, get out of this, get out of that. This guy is falling, that guy is falling. Those guys drive me crazy.
SPEAKER 15 :
Yes, and eventually, you know, years down the road, when you look back, you’re like, if I had listened to those guys earlier, I would have missed out on all this opportunity. And, again, I mean, you know, if this helps people listening, I mean, the stock market, through all the ups and downs, you look at the S&P 500, you go back to 1928 through today, and, you know, there have been stock market crashes. Obviously, there was, you know, 1929, 1987, what we dealt with with COVID. But through it all, if you just stayed steady, Eddie, and you invested – and you kept chipping away, you made 9.5% per year if you’re reinvesting dividends. And if you compound that, you’re doubling your money every 7.2 years, roughly.
SPEAKER 09 :
Not bad. Not bad at all.
SPEAKER 15 :
I’ll take it.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yeah, who wouldn’t?
SPEAKER 15 :
Yeah, exactly. Yeah, I mean, look, there are always going to be these people that are going to tell you that, hey… You know, you’re screwed if you do this and that. But to your point, if you look at that— And, Scott, we’ve talked about some of this in the past.
SPEAKER 09 :
I mean, even through COVID, you know, being the car guy that I am, I mean, I can’t tell you how much I’ve heard that, you know, the sky’s falling on the new car market. The sky’s falling on the used car market. You know, don’t do this. Don’t do that. I mean, and there’s always ebbs and flows and ups and downs when it comes to both of those markets, just like there is everything else. But has either one of them completely, you know, dropped out? And the answer is no, because at the end of the day, Scott, as you know and as I know— People still need transportation. And whether that’s buying a new car or another used car, the other thing people forget is there’s cars that are taken out of service on a daily basis, whether that be out of sheer accidents, totals, mechanical breakdowns, you name it. Bottom line is the fleet shrinks daily on the used side, and it has to be supplemented on the new side, meaning that the car market, while it ebbs and flows, it’s not going anywhere, Scott.
SPEAKER 15 :
I couldn’t agree with you more on that.
SPEAKER 09 :
And that, by the way, I could take that same attitude towards most anything. Now, I get it. AI is new. There’s going to be a lot of naysayers. Michael’s been right on several things. But you know what? He’s been, to your point, wrong on several things. He predicted the housing market was going to crash, you know, a few years ago. It didn’t. Reality is there’s still a need for homes. And, you know, we’ll talk about this in a moment with you. I talked about it earlier. But, you know, the 50-year mortgage that Trump is, you know, trying to push through, which is just an end-around mortgage. Jerome Powell, by the way. But at the end of the day, Scott, there’s still a need for certain things. And AI is not going anywhere. It’s going to do nothing but build and get bigger and bigger and bigger. And it’s not popping, period.
SPEAKER 15 :
I would completely agree with that. And, you know, like Lisa Su, she’s the chief executive officer of AMD. They make AI chips. And she gave an incredible interview on CNBC yesterday morning. And she was talking about the demand they’re seeing and that one of the, there was somebody there that, uh, Andrew Ross Sorkin, who recently wrote a book about the crash of 1929 and he’s calling for a stock market crash. Um, but basically he’s like, well, our customers, aren’t they wasting their money on this stuff and they’re not seeing any benefits. And she was like, it’s exactly the opposite. We’re seeing customers are seeing real benefits. It’s starting to show big improvements in their business. It’s paying off for them. And it’s just, again, it’s, I don’t know why so many people want the stock market to crash just to say they’re right.
SPEAKER 09 :
Well, I mean, I think, you know, Scott, I think, again, I can apply that to a lot of other industry where you hear people talking about, you know, this is going to crash and that’s going to crash. And I do think there’s a certain amount of people that take joy in predicting the downside of something. And those are the negative Nellies. Those are the naysayers that are out there. I’ve heard so many of them over the past five years since COVID from, again, used cars to new cars to the housing to you name it. It’s like, guys, and so far, by the way, none of you have been correct yet to the point where why listen to some of these people. And by the way, Scott, they come from both sides of the aisle, conservative and the liberal side. It’s not one side or it’s not only one side is what I meant to say. It comes from both sides. And it’s almost like. Again, this 50-year mortgage, our side, the conservatives, hate it. I love it. I think it’s the best thing ever. He is doing an end around around Jerome Powell right now.
SPEAKER 15 :
Yes, he is. And I can see both sides of this argument. I can see how the K, it would be a lot easier for individuals to service a 50-year mortgage. The flip side of that, one of my questions, though, would be, How many people are going to live long enough to see out a 50-year mortgage?
SPEAKER 09 :
And my comeback to that was, and I talked about this earlier, how many out there really ever pay their mortgage off anyways? And the answer to that, Scott, is very few.
SPEAKER 15 :
I think you’re right on that.
SPEAKER 09 :
Because most people, just like a car, they will take that 30-year mortgage, and they’ll maybe get to 10 years in, and they decide to go buy a different house, or they refinance, or they do this, or they do that, or the kids go to college, and they need money, and on and on we go. And they use their home in that way, and the majority of appreciation from the home isn’t in them paying the loan off. It’s the upside of owning the home and watching it appreciate over time. That’s where the money comes from.
SPEAKER 15 :
I would point out, too, that most people I know, the bulk of their equity is tied up in their house.
SPEAKER 09 :
That’s right. That’s right. And, you know, right, wrong or otherwise. And there’s some people out there that probably disagree with folks doing that. But that’s the reality of where things are. Most people have that as their largest asset. And I always hate the people that say it’s not an asset, it’s a liability. Well, really, it’s not because, you know, we as a country, right, wrong or otherwise, we incentivize people to own homes, Scott. In other words, we give them a tax break for owning a home. There is some appreciation in that home. I can go down the list of the upsides to it, and at the end of the day, it’s a good thing to own a home. We want people owning homes.
SPEAKER 15 :
We completely do. I mean, you know, because homeowners are going to show up to work every day. They’re going to contribute to society. They’re going to want to keep their property clean. It plays into a lot of the laws of the land as well.
SPEAKER 09 :
It does. And again, there’s just certain things along those lines that make that, you know, very important. I got one comment from a listener really quick on those lines. Bob, I’ll give you a few seconds here. Go ahead, man.
SPEAKER 11 :
Okay, on cars, you said we have to replenish our cars quite often. John, a fairly modern car, and I’m talking about something that’s 15 years old or newer. and you put 15,000 miles on the car over a 15-year period, well-maintained, you don’t have to buy a new car to replace it.
SPEAKER 09 :
You do if it gets totaled or if the engine blows or the transmission goes out, you haven’t maintained it properly, and on and on we go. No, to the letter of the law of what you’re saying, Bob, no, but that’s not reality.
SPEAKER 11 :
Well, no, the reality is people don’t take care of their cars. Correct.
SPEAKER 09 :
And they get wrecked and they get stolen and there’s all sorts of other things that happen. Bottom line is the used car fleet shrinks every year.
SPEAKER 11 :
It shrinks because of neglect.
SPEAKER 09 :
Well, no, not just neglect. Also, the other things that I just said, Bob, it’s not neglect if your car is stolen. It’s not neglect if somebody runs into the side of you and totals your car. Those aren’t neglects. It’s just life.
SPEAKER 11 :
Okay, I can’t break that down into percentage, but my theory is… And by the way, the majority of the shrinkage is by what I just said, not neglect on the maintenance side. And then as far as houses, I mean, come on. You know, you said I’m not the norm. I should be. But you’re not.
SPEAKER 09 :
And by the way, Dave Ramsey would say the same as you, but you and he are both wrong. It’s not the norm, and nor will it ever be. In other words, your house is paid for. Dave Ramsey would agree with you, but you’re not the norm and you never will be.
SPEAKER 11 :
No, I guess I’m not the norm, but I would hope that somebody would aspire to be that norm.
SPEAKER 09 :
They’re not going to, Bob. I mean, as much as you and I would like them to, they’re not going to. That’s a pipe dream.
SPEAKER 11 :
Well, I’m talking about a stair step, you know.
SPEAKER 09 :
It’s not going to happen. And again, you and Dave, and I love both of you dearly, but you’re both wrong. The average person’s not going to do that, period.
SPEAKER 11 :
Well, I got drafted at 18, got out of the Army at 20. I bought my first house.
SPEAKER 09 :
And, Bob, you are from a generation that doesn’t exist anymore.
SPEAKER 11 :
Not a very good house, but I stair-stepped my way up.
SPEAKER 09 :
I agree, and I did as well. But we don’t exist anymore, Bob. I mean, keep in mind, Bob, we have got kids today complaining they can’t buy a house. And as I’ve said many times, it’s because their expectations are too high on the house they want to buy. They want that 2,500 to 3,000 square foot house, not the 900 square foot house I bought.
SPEAKER 11 :
Well, when I moved here 52 years ago, I could go skiing on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday for six bucks.
SPEAKER 09 :
You can’t do that anymore, Bob.
SPEAKER 11 :
God bless you.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yeah, you can’t do that anymore. And, Bob, I appreciate it. I’ll honor Scott’s time. And you’re right. I mean, Scott, I agree with everything Bob’s saying, but Bob is of a generation that doesn’t exist anymore.
SPEAKER 15 :
Yes, yes.
SPEAKER 09 :
And I’m not saying that in a rude way. I mean, I appreciate Bob and guys like him, and I’ve learned a lot of things from guys like Bob, but they don’t exist anymore, Scott.
SPEAKER 15 :
I was looking up some stats. It looks like it’s about 38% to 40% of homeowners in the U.S. have paid off their mortgages.
SPEAKER 09 :
That’s actually pretty good. That’s actually surprising. That’s a higher number than I would have guessed.
SPEAKER 15 :
Yeah, yeah. I would agree with you.
SPEAKER 09 :
Honestly, that’s really good.
SPEAKER 15 :
It’s a great number. In terms of the average driving, too, it looks like, according to Kelly Blue Book, the average driving mileage per year is around 14.5.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yeah, when I was in the industry, we figured 15,000 a year, so that’s pretty close.
SPEAKER 15 :
Yeah, so when Bob was saying 1,000 miles a year over 15 years, I’m like, God bless you. I don’t know how you could do that.
SPEAKER 09 :
No, the average person’s $15,000 a year, meaning if you keep a car 10 years, you’re at $150,000. And most won’t drive it that far, by the way. The rule of thumb is most people are out of their car in three to five years.
SPEAKER 15 :
Yeah, it’s right, which drives it back to replenishing the cars.
SPEAKER 09 :
That’s right. And I don’t know the stat on how many are wrecked and totaled or stolen, but I’ve got to believe that number is fairly high, and that’s going to be the highest attrition rate percentage-wise on used cars versus people, lack of maintenance and so on, or just wearing the car out, Scott. Most of it’s going to be coming from insurance claims, which theft is as well, but most of it’s going to come from insurance claims. Yes. Yes. Meaning my whole point of that is meaning that do we need new cars? Yes, because the used car fleet is constantly diminishing. And as much as there are people out there, myself included, that if you maintain your car properly, you can drive it for a very, very, very long time. You absolutely can. But even with that, you still need new cars produced because there’s also Scott, you know, as you know, There are fleets, there’s rental car agencies, there’s the government itself. I mean, the reality is there’s a lot of cars produced for a lot of segments of the economy, and it’s not just that guy going down to the showroom and buying a new car. Yes. Meaning the industry is huge and it’s not going anywhere.
SPEAKER 15 :
Just like our economy.
SPEAKER 09 :
That’s exactly right. Yeah. Scott, it’s funny. I hear people all the time. I had an argument with somebody earlier in the week talking about how, you know, if we continue down this path, you know, the economy is going to tank and this, that, and the other. And I looked up just for grins while I was talking to this individual. The baby boomers and Gen X, so just those two generations, they have a net worth, not, you know, not, in other words, you know, As you know, assets minus the debt, they’re net worth. So they’re actual net worth, money that if they went and sold everything off and so on, that’s cash. They’d actually have $140 trillion in those two generations. That’s amazing. We’re not going anywhere is my point, Scott. This country is not going anywhere.
SPEAKER 15 :
We’re definitely not going anywhere. I would agree very wholeheartedly.
SPEAKER 09 :
And that’s only two generations. That doesn’t count some of the up-and-coming generations. By the way, that wealth transfer of those two generations is going to be huge.
SPEAKER 15 :
Yes, very much so. And hopefully, if that money gets rolled back into stocks and bonds, it’s going to keep growing. It’ll keep compounding more and more, and that’ll be an even better thing for the economy.
SPEAKER 09 :
Really quick, though, going back to the whole 50-year mortgage, and again, would I have one? No. Well, I take that back. I’ve had several people today, several, not just one, several people actually talking about how, you know, I’m a real estate investor. A 50-year mortgage would work great for me because I can actually go out and buy more rental properties at that point because I could cash flow them better on a 50-year mortgage than I could a 30-year mortgage. And here’s how the math works. So, you know, Scott, and that’s exactly what the Donald Trumps of the world are looking at. I can stimulate the economy outside of Jerome Powell by doing this.
SPEAKER 15 :
Yes, you could. Now, the flip side of that would be that would last for several years, I would think. Yes. Because you would wind up with a situation where prices started to take off again. They might, yes. And if that happens… I would think your leverage possibility would, would drop. I could be wrong on that.
SPEAKER 09 :
Um, well, as you know, that’s all in timing as to if it’s an investment property, when did you get into it? When did you have your 50 year mortgage? What rate did you get it at? So on and so forth. And as you know, that whole world, you know, they chase the money all the time. And if the money comes down, they’ll go refi and find, you know, cheaper money. And that’s how that world works.
SPEAKER 15 :
Yeah. You know, there’s another idea that’s been thrown out there too, that I thought would be interesting. Um, is having a transferable mortgage as well. If you sold your house, and maybe if you don’t go the 50-year path, maybe you’re transferable and you’re able to take what you have left on your mortgage and apply it to a new home.
SPEAKER 09 :
Yep.
SPEAKER 15 :
Great idea. And keep that rate.
SPEAKER 09 :
Great idea.
SPEAKER 15 :
Love it. Yeah, I think that would work out very well as well.
SPEAKER 09 :
All right, I’ve got to get things wrapped up. Scott, how do folks get a hold of you, Bent Pine Capital?
SPEAKER 15 :
Yeah, so bentpinecapital.com, or you can check me out on Twitter, Twitter, LinkedIn or Substack at CScottGarland.
SPEAKER 09 :
Awesome. Appreciate you, Scott. Thank you very much. All right, we’ve got to do a long block here because I went so long with all of our guests today, so stay tuned. I’ve got a few commercials coming up here. Roof Savers of Colorado starting us off, 303-710-6916.
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SPEAKER 09 :
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SPEAKER 09 :
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SPEAKER 09 :
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SPEAKER 08 :
The best export we have is common sense. You’re listening to Rush to Reason.
SPEAKER 09 :
All right, wrapping things up on this fine Thursday. Appreciate all the text messages today, by the way. And again, several of you, and I’m actually shocked at this. I thought I would actually have a lot more pushback on the 50-year mortgage than what I’ve had. And frankly, it’s been the opposite. Most of you, in fact, I don’t think I’ve had one negative comment yet. Everybody’s talking about how, yep, if you’re an investor or if you’re looking at things You know, in a positive way, that would actually be an uptick. It’ll help out the economy and so on. And again, as I have said, I firmly believe this is basically a way to poke Jerome Powell back in the eye. He won’t help out financially speaking with interest rates. So what Trump is looking at, OK, if you’re not going to get the housing market kickstarted, I will. I’ll figure out how to make this work. And then when interest rates even come down further, it even helps out that much farther. Keep in mind, this is a big shot in the arm currently with rates where they’re at. Wait till they drop even further, which they will. There’s going to be a big Fed change in May. That’s assured. Jerome Powell will not be there. Somebody else will. Somebody will be a lot more aggressive with what Trump wants to do interest rate wise, which is going to help out markets and it will lower prices further. for mortgages overall. Trust me when I say that. And I know, I always get somebody that has to correct me on, you know, the interest rates that the Fed set doesn’t really affect, you know, it’s not a direct relation to mortgage rates. I know. It’s indirectly related, and the lower the short-term interest rates are, it has a positive effect upon long-term rates as well. You can go back in history and look at that. So, no, it’s not a direct reflection of But it’s indirect, and yes, it does lower rates when it’s all said and done. All right, real quick, tomorrow, Andy has three, count them, three movie reviews. And a couple of these, actually all three of these, look like they’re really good, so we’ll find out from Andy whether they are or not. Now You See Me, Now You Don’t, and that’s actually a sequel, correct, Charlie? That’s a sequel. The Carpenter’s Son, which is a faith-based movie. And then The Running Man, which they all three, again, look really good. So we’ll find out from Andy tomorrow what those are actually like. We’ll have NFL picks, of course, as we head through the NFL season. And then movie rental time, which anymore, it’s about a half an hour this time of the year. We’re going to do movies with magic. So if you’ve got your favorite magic movie and you want to send that to me, because this is not my best genre of movies, please send me that, and I’ll add it to the list, 307-200-8222. But again, we’ll be back tomorrow. Appreciate what Andy does in regards to that. He’s watching movies as we speak, most likely, and he’ll give you the reviews on those tomorrow. Have a fantastic night. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560.
