Join professional money manager Bill Gundersen as he breaks down the latest market movements following the recent Federal Reserve decision. In this episode, we delve into the mixed performance of major indices and discuss the factors driving the NASDAQ’s unexpected downturn. With insights from Gundersen and guest Barry Kite, learn how market dynamics are shifting and where opportunities for growth might lie amid a backdrop of economic uncertainty.
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He’s been seen on CNBC, the Fox News Channel, and the Fox Business Channel. His articles can be found on MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TheStreet.com, and many other places. He’s the author of the weekly Best Stocks Now newsletter and the inventor of the Best Stocks Now app. He’s president of Gundersen Capital Management. Here is professional money manager Bill Gundersen.
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And welcome to the post-Fed decision edition of the Best Stocks Now show with professional money manager Bill Gunderson, president of Gunderson Capital Management. And I’m here with Barry Kite, our chartered financial analyst. We’ve got a huge mixed market with a wide gap today. Not the usual gap. It’s usually the NASDAQ up, the Dow down. But today it’s the NASDAQ down 265. I think you can blame Oracle for that. The NASDAQ down 265, 1.1%. The Dow, on the other hand, is up 218. That’s almost a half a percent there for the Dow. The S&P is down 40 points. Oracle is a big part of the S&P 500. The S&P is down 60 basis points. The little guys over at the Russell 2000, they’re up a quarter of a percent. Seems like the market’s favoring low PE stocks today and the non-big tech stocks today. Meanwhile, the interest rates are down six basis points. That’s pretty good to 4.11. Gold’s having a big day. Loved the rate cut yesterday. Crypto continues to wobble, however. Crypto down, let’s see, where is it? Bitcoin is down 2,200, below 90,000 again, having a real confidence crisis there. to $89,770. So welcome to today’s Best Stocks Now show with professional money manager Bill Gunderson, president of Gunderson Capital Management. And I’m here with Barry Kite, our chartered financial analyst. And seemingly there were no surprises yesterday. Although there were three dissenters, that’s a lot. Usually you get a unanimous decision. One guy wanted a 50 basis point cut, and two didn’t want any cut at all. And I think Jerome Powell, he probably votes where the majority is so he doesn’t look foolish. And at the end of the day, you’ve got your 25 basis point cut. Very hawkish tone for next year, I thought. Don’t count on a lot of rate cuts in 2026, which is what he said at the last meeting. Don’t count on one in December, and yet they delivered. And I think it will depend upon those jobs reports. That’s what it’s going to come down to. And, of course, the inflation reports. And lately it’s definitely tilted towards a weakening job market, not by a lot, but by a little. and disappearing inflation from the landscape. And that led to that 25 basis point cut yesterday. Talk about the job front.
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That was the most interesting thing he said. Did you hear what he talked about, the monthly job numbers? He said he thinks they could be overinflated, I think, by $60,000 or $80,000 a month, which makes sense if you take that 12. Remember the $60,000 times 12? Remember how… That revision that they had to do where we had 800,000 jobs that they said we had that we didn’t, right?
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And we fired the guy that was doing the numbers before and put a new guy in there.
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Which kind of, I mean, I read between the lines that he was worried about, you know, potentially employment down the road, right? And so it’s, you know, which to me would be a tad bit dovish, but even though he didn’t say that, but, you know, who knows.
SPEAKER 05 :
Yes, and the other thing on the jobs front, we did get the initial jobless claims numbers today, and they were pretty good. I mean, 236,000 is the number. We were at 192,000 last week, so it did jump a little bit. But 236,000 is still a pretty low number on a relative basis.
SPEAKER 06 :
And last week was skewed, too, by whenever Thanksgiving you had a shortened week, and so that usually ends up with a lower number. But, yeah, I mean, 236,000, I mean, I feel bad for the 236,000 that, you know, Or in the jobless claims line. But in reality, it’s not a bad number at all. And it’s where they’ve been, basically.
SPEAKER 05 :
So they didn’t deliver a lump of coal. The Grinch did not rear his ugly head yesterday. Santa delivered the goods. We got the 25 basis point cut. Three dissenters again. And like I say, one must really want to be the next Fed. He wanted 50 basis points.
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Isn’t that the one? I heard it was the one that Trump appointed recently.
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I thought that was… Yeah, it was a Waller, but it was one of them that wanted… So anyways, the Dow ended up 1% yesterday, but the NASDAQ was only up a third of a point yesterday. And of course, after the Fed rate cut, We got earnings from Oracle, which was quite shocking, really. I’m glad we backed out of our Oracle position about a month ago or whatever. Ellison there for a while jumped up to one of the richest guys out in the world. And then all of a sudden, you know, that stock’s almost been cut in half. Remember that huge gain it had back in early September? It went to 346. Now it’s at 192. It’s been straight down practically ever since. And today it’s down 13%. So that’s what’s hurting the NASDAQ. And it’s bringing down all the chip stocks. Oracle uses a lot of chips. It’s bringing down NVIDIA. It’s bringing down Taiwan Semiconductor. It’s bringing down AMD. It’s bringing down Broadcom, which Broadcom is going to report after the close of the market tonight. That’s a big one, really, because Broadcom now is probably number three, maybe even number two. NVIDIA is still number one. AMD and Broadcom are number two and number three, pretty close to one another. And I would put Marvell… at number four in the chip world right now. So that will be an interesting report tonight. Could it rescue the tech stocks tomorrow with a big report? The other one that’s going to report after the close tonight, and I sent out a chart on that one on X yesterday, Costco’s been breaking down the support level on the stock. I think it’s lofty P-E ratio, very lofty P-E ratio. When you consider it’s only an 8% to 9% grower trading at 53 times earnings, it’s catching up with it. And I think inflation is a little bit of an issue there. You know, four ribeye steaks these days, you’ve got to call Klarna, take out a loan, you know, get four easy payments, you know. And other things, imported cheeses and whatnot. There’s some pretty high prices over there at Costco, and I think it’s probably hurting them a little bit. And that’s not a good chart at all on what has been a very Teflon-coated stock over the years because it’s one of those ones that people love. They love to shop there. They love to own the stock. It’s always done nothing but go up pretty much. But lately, it’s been pretty weak. So we’ll see how they report here after the close tonight. The Dow reached 48,000 for the first time. And I don’t think it’s hitting a new all-time high today. Let me take a look here. But we haven’t seen that 48,000 mark since we had that correction. The all-time high is 48,431. We’re just like 150 points below the all-time high. Now, I predicted that we saw the high for the year. So far I’ve been right, but we have got 20 days left between now and the end of the year. It remains to be seen if the Dow can hit a new all-time high. I think as you look at the NASDAQ, I think for sure, barring some kind of really good news, we probably saw the high for the year back in November at $24,019. And the S&P 500, I think we’ve probably seen the high for the year when it hits 6,920. Oh, it’s possible. I mean, there could be something. I don’t know what it would be. The Fed is out of the picture now. The earnings are all in the books. I don’t know what kind of catalyst, unless it’s going to be like Broadcom puts in a big report tonight. But I just don’t see much upside between now and the end of the year. And I think we’ll end up calling it a pretty good year, obviously, after a big, huge scare, a massive scare in February and March when the S&P went to 4,800. Think about that. And now we’re back to 6,800. So if you panicked and sold back in March, you did the wrong thing because the market really boomed. after that what is 2026 going to bring well i mean we begin the day with the forward pe of 22.62 and lately we’ve seen a ceiling of 23 on that forward pe you’d have to see multiple expansion or rising earnings estimates, which it’s pretty hard to get either one of those two. So it’s going to be all about stock picking, I think, in 2026. We’ll be right back. And welcome back here to the second quarter of today’s Best Stocks Now show. The story of the day yesterday, the stock story of the day for me was GE Vernova. Wow, that thing ended up 15% yesterday. It is a little bit of profit taking in it today, but the news on it was, and the target price put on it by J.P. Morgan was incredible. GE Vernova yesterday doubled their dividend. boosted its stock buyback authority and significantly raised their 2026 financial guidance. And there is evidence of the truism that companies’ stocks trade on expectations, earnings expectations, sales expectations. And look what happens when a company raises their expectations. They raise their sales forecast from $45 billion to $52 billion next year, which is significant. They’re sold out of their gas turbines for now, for this year. So heavy, heavy demand for their products. And the outlook prompted J.P. Morgan analysts. I love J.P. Morgan. They just built a nice little branch in my neighborhood. I’m okay. Now that they’re GE Vernova Bulls, maybe I’ll open my, move a little checking account there or something. At least you have a close ATM, right? Yeah, I could just ride my bike down to the ATM and hope I don’t get mugged on the way home. But anyways, he issued a Wall Street High $1,000 price target. Now, wait a minute. Okay, if we look at where GE Vernova is right now, $689. A $1,000 price target is three-sevenths. That’s 40%, over 40% upside potential. Now let’s look at Gunderson’s price target. I’m sure JP Morgan’s doing a 12-month price target. I go out over the next five years on GEV, which was spun off from the mothership. a while back. My price target is 1,327 five years from now. That’s using a growth rate of 15% per year over the next five years, which I think is doable given this huge demand for power. They’re in the power business. I have a five-year return potential of 84%, so it meets my valuation criteria. And when you look at the performance of the stock, let’s just take a look here. The performance numbers have been off the charts. We’re very happy with our… GE Vernova is up 116% over the last 12 months. It does not have a three-year track record because it was spun off. Let’s see. When was GE Vernova’s starting date as an independent on its own company? It was 2024. But those are some pretty impressive numbers. They’re looking for 27% growth in earnings this year. And 77% growth in earnings next year. It is one of the 16 stocks. I mean, you can own Home Depot, which sells diesel generators to contractors, right? Or you can own GE Vernova, which is powering the world and huge data centers and massive companies. that meeting massive energy needs. I’ll invest in GE Vernova. Thank you. And it’s been very good to us. So anyways, for me, that was the story of the day, the stock story of the day yesterday. Now, the stock story of the day, obviously, is Oracle, which we do not own. We did own it. I went in it after that massive beat that they had, and it just didn’t pan out. It just kept slipping and sliding away, as Paul Simon says. And now it’s down to 195, and it’s down 12.6% today. And it wasn’t a bad, I thought they had a pretty good quarter. I mean, their earnings were up 54%. Their sales were up 14%. But I think it was their guidance was on the soft side. And that’s kind of the disaster du jour today is Oracle. Now, as I said, it’s hurting the chip stocks today, Oracle’s news. And one of the top three chip companies out there is going to report after the close tonight. And that is Broadcom, which has been on one heck of a run. Because the trick is with Broadcom, they’re partnered with Google on those AI chips that Google announced recently, which is kind of a competitor all of a sudden to NVIDIA. And Meta is expected to buy billions of dollars worth of those chips. So we own all of them. We own Broadcom and we own Google. Those are part of the 16 that we currently own in the premier growth portfolio. And we’re very happy with both of those. Let’s hope Broadcom doesn’t bomb tonight. I don’t think they will. I think… They’ve got a lot going for them right now. But, you know, chip earnings can be a little bit on the bumpy side. But I would expect a good report. I don’t know if you saw the news last night. The helicopter lowers down. Oh, yeah. The commandos, what did they do? Shinny down the ropes.
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I showed it to the boys this morning. It was a pretty neat video.
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Those are some bad dudes, man. I grew up between two Air Force bases.
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So I wanted them to see, you know, they used to do that for fun, right, and then show, you know, they would have different displays of, you know, different things as I grew up, and they would do the same thing onto some barren barrier island, right? And, you know, I was like, I saw it last night, and I’m like, this morning, I’m like, hey, guys, check this out.
SPEAKER 05 :
That is bravery on display there. I mean, who knows what’s on that ship, what kind, if they’re armed, you’ve got to know how to drive the ship. They seized that tanker off the coast, and the waves were about 25 feet. So anyways, obviously, you would think oil prices would be up today, but you know, they’re at 56, 57, which is about break-even for a lot of the oil companies. It’s good for us at the gas pump. That is one of the things that the price is going down on. Not much else out there. But it’s obvious that we’re amping up our fight against Venezuela to curb that drug trafficking. Operation Southern Spear. And, yeah, I don’t know where the tanker went. I don’t know where it ended up, but it was full of oil bound for Venezuela. And I think it was coming from Iran.
SPEAKER 06 :
It’s been used a bunch. I mean, they’ve tracked that ship. It’s been used, like you said, from Iranian oil. It’s got, obviously, some Venezuelan oil. Transponder’s been off as it was filling up. I mean, it’s one of these things that you know is happening at all times. It’s just, hey, let’s send a message. And, you know, apparently there’s a bunch of other tankers off the coast there that are waiting to fill up.
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Good luck with that. I think the web is closing in on Maduro. I think maybe Maduro’s days are numbered. Big move in Lilly today. Holy cow, that thing’s up $31 per share. That’s one of the 16 that we own in the Premier. We’ve talked about this will be the fourth one we talk about today. We’ll be right back. This is Bill Gunderson. Thank you for tuning in to today’s Best Stocks Now, Best Inverse Funds Now show. I put several hours of research in during the wee hours of the morning each day to bring you the very best cutting-edge stories that I can. To get two free weeks of my newsletter, go to GundersonCapital.com. To talk to us about our fee-based only money management services, call us at 855-611-BEST. Now, back to the second half of the show.
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Because. Because. Because.
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And welcome back here to the second half of today’s Best Stocks Now show. Well, there’s a lot of pharmaceutical stocks out there. You know, there’s the Pfizer’s, there’s the Merck’s, the Moderna’s, the Bristol-Myers, the Abbott Labs, blah, blah, blah, Johnson & Johnson. In my book, there’s only one worth investing in, and it’s because they have what I consider to be a disruptor of a drug that is disrupting the entire diet exercise industry. And they have good news today. And Lilly’s been under a little bit of pressure. It hit a trillion. Okay, buy the rumor, sell the news. The rumor was it would hit a trillion, which I’ve been saying, you know, in my articles on Lilly now for the last couple of years. and uh… it finally hit that about uh… a month ago and then it backed off which is not unusual it’s not unusual uh… for a company to hit a big major milestone like that and see the profit taking come in nothing changed other than they have been lowering their price i think they’re trying to make it more widely available to the masses because it is priced uh… pretty high For somebody to get on it, although the benefits, as far as I’m concerned, far outweigh what the costs are. Not only that, your grocery bill and your restaurant bills will go down significantly. But this one, they did a study not only on how much weight you would lose on the latest one, their next generation weight loss therapy, which is called Triumph. That’s a good name. Not only did it lead to significant weight loss, it improved knee pain, physical pain, joint pain. That’s pretty good. So anyways, that stock right now is up $30 per share, $32 now. 3.2%, 1,025, which it also goes to show you, you don’t have to own all tech stocks. Although most of the growth, when you look at the market in today’s world, you’re still finding most of the growth, especially in the semiconductor sector. That’s not always true, however, but that’s where it’s at right now. But there’s other stocks out there like Lilly, They’re not powering data centers. They’re not making a faster chip. No, they’re making a faster and easier way to lose a lot of weight. And, you know, it’s really not that painful of a program at all. So anyways, that’s one of our largest holdings, and it continues to be. And they seem to have taken the market share from the main competitor there. Ozempic over at Novo Nordisk. So another big day for Lilly. L-L-Y, the pride of Indiana. Hey, Indiana’s having a pretty good year. Didn’t they beat Ohio State over the weekend? 13-10?
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Yeah, and I apologize to our Columbus, Ohio listeners, but yeah, Indiana, they host a Big Ten championship in Indianapolis. And, of course, Indiana won. I think it’s the first time they’ve ever been ranked number one. I think it’s the first time they’ve ever won, maybe since 1965 or maybe ever, the first time they won the Big Ten. I didn’t know this, but they’re the second losingest football team in college football, meaning they have the most losses in terms of their whole story tradition over the years. Obviously, they’ve been more of a basketball school over the years, but they’re going to have their say in this.
SPEAKER 05 :
Yeah, well, I mean, both of those teams are major players. Ohio State is not out of it by any means. Either one of them could end up as the national champions. But that’s quite a story there in Indiana this year, football. And with the pride of, we’ve got a, they’re also, I saw they tried out Phillip Rivers, who I know something about being from San Diego. Did he really sign? He’s 44 years old.
SPEAKER 06 :
Yeah, he signed his 10 kit. Yeah, is it 10 or 12? And has one grandkid already. And the last time, I think the last time someone played in the NFL that had a grandbaby was Brett Favre, actually.
SPEAKER 05 :
Oh, I was thinking there was George Blanda on the Raiders, was a quarterback and the field goal kicker. He played until about 50 years old or so. Yeah, he was amazing. I’m surprised he didn’t have a grandkid. But anyways, okay, so here’s your biotech of the day, ACIU. Not S-E-I-U, ACIU. And they have something for Parkinson’s that’s showing some good results. Let’s just take a look at ACIU today. It is up 13.6%. It’s out of Switzerland. As I’ve said before, it’s a difficult sector to play, the biotech sector. Just buying all of them doesn’t seem to be a very good way to go. It underperforms. I think you have to select some of the best ones. The most promising ones in ACIU. Now, here’s the other side of that biotech sector story. Resolute down 90%. The stock crashes as its lead candidate for hypoglycemia fails. So there’s the other side of that coin. The drone stock’s in the news today. But you know what? I’m kind of glad we backed out of that. We made some money in AeroVironment. Who knows if peace is coming between Ukraine and Russia. The talks continue. AeroVironment gets a big contract from the United States Coast Guard. But when I look at the chart of that stock, A-V-A-V, It’s not very good, although countries around the world are investing in drones. I didn’t see drones land. At the end of the day, drones didn’t land on that ship and take over the ship. It was guys with some bad-looking rifles and gear, and, man, that was something to watch. Okay, round-top Texas. Yeah, that was really unbelievable. Round Top, Texas, we talked about yesterday. I did some research on it. It’s in Hudspeth County, which is just west of El Paso. It’s right on the Mexican border, really. I’m surprised that some of it’s not in Mexico. uh… eighty five miles southeast of el paso it covers nine hundred and fifty acres with additional prospecting permits on adjacent areas that total nine thousand and forty five acres uh… round top mountain is a rio light hosted deposit which is unique compared to other rare earth deposit it’s part of the sierra blanca peaks it’s approximately 36.2 million years old. Okay, I’m sure that that could be challenged, but that’s what they say. The Round Top deposit is rich in heavy rare earth elements and contains a variety of critical industrial minerals, including rare earth oxide, lithium, thorium, uranium, beryllium, gallium, hafnium, And zirconium, okay, it has been recognized as a high-priority infrastructure project by the Texas government. uh… which is seeking federal support and i think they got it i think the federal government has also and the company involved there is u s a are u s a rare earth which aims to produce significant quantities of rare earth uh… minute products and lithium over projected mine life of at least twenty years they think there’s billions of dollars Under the ground there and the round top formation in Texas. Okay, when we come back, we had some others report earnings last night. Adobe actually is a pretty important software stock. But lately – and I’ve read that AI has not helped them. I think they’re kind of a – but at the same time, you know, the subscription business has pretty much leveled off, and it’s not growing like it used to. And the other important one that reported is Synopsys. That’s a very important designer. of semiconductors, SNPS. We’ll talk about that when we come back. Sienna also reported after the close. And again, tonight we’re going to get Broadcom reporting and we’re going to get Costco. So those are a lot of very important companies here towards the end of the year. And of course, it all feeds into those S&P 500 earnings estimates, which I watched like a hawk. because that’s what I take my cue from as far as my macro forecast, which I’ve been bullish since 2009, only with some cautious periods of time along the way, obviously, 2022 being one of those. We’ll be right back.
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And welcome back here to the final segment of today’s Best Stocks Now show. On this day after the Fed rate cut of 25 basis points,
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I thought pretty hawkish talk going forward. Of course, his days are numbered, but I think he’s probably two more meetings, I want to say, before his time is up and someone else comes in. Yeah, I thought it was pretty hawkish. It’s good to see rates dropping today to 4.11. That’s down about five or six basis points. So anyways, we have that drama out of the way, and we’ve only got a little over two weeks left in the market. Who was it that came out with like the $8,000? It was Tom Lee of Fundstrat. He had an $8,000 target price by the end of this year. I don’t understand where some of these people come up with these predictions.
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I’ll root for him. I hope he’s right. You hit it on the head. In terms of valuation, it’s hard for you to get there. You can’t get that high of a multiple. Even with the earnings growth that we’re seeing, you can’t get there that way either.
SPEAKER 05 :
And we’re still fighting. I mean, the biggest thing we’re fighting in the market right now is valuation. We don’t have an earnings problem. We have a valuation problem. And the most common valuation that we look at in the S&P is the P-E ratio. That’s the last 12 months. The P-E is currently at 28. And I produce a chart every week that shows the historic P-E ratio and where we’re at versus that historic P-E ratio. And the forward P-E ratio right now is 22.6 too. And I also produce a chart every week in the newsletter which shows the historic, over the last five years I think it is, the historic forward P-E ratio. And there’s not a lot of room unless the market readjusts and says, okay, we’re all right with the forward PE going up to 24. We’re okay with the PE ratio going up to 30. Well, I mean, that’s way outside of the norm, way outside of the norm. Anything’s possible. But then, you know, you’re setting yourself up for a big correction at some point in time. So there’s the issues you have as we are ending, getting ready to end. a year of uh of the market and begin a new year next year the other thing that can happen is the earnings estimates that are out there right now for q1 and for the entire year 2026 if they were to rise significantly which is not likely to happen I mean, you could see them go up 3 or 4 percent or something like that, but I can’t see really any… I don’t think the quarter point rate cut is going to do it. So now you have to take a look at the overall market and realize that it’s rich. but that there’s individual stocks within the market that are still leaders and still have upside potential. I just talked about the five-year target price on Lilly, for instance, and it still has significant upside potential over the next five years, despite… the rich overall market. And you could say the same thing about GE Vernova. You can still make a good case for it. I’m not the only one. JP Morgan put out a $1,000 target price, which gives it 40% upside potential. So you have to find companies. There’s where that five-year valuation in the app is critical. You’ve got to find stocks within the app, which they’re going to be the top-ranked stocks that have not only got good performance going on, but still meet the valuation criteria. And look at that five-year target price I want. You know, 75% to 80% or more upside potential over the next five years. So there, for me, is a big critical. You’re either going to give up looking at the stock. I’ve looked at a lot recently that looked pretty good, and they only had 55% upside potential. I’m not willing to settle for that. I feel like the risk to reward is not worth it at that level. But having said that, we would not own the ones we own currently if they were fully priced and didn’t have ample upside potential going forward. So they’re out there, but you do have to work hard to find them. And it’s not going to be the Home Depots. It’s not going to be the Procter & Gamble. It’s not going to be the Johnson & Johnson’s, the Coca-Cola’s, the single-digit growers. Those are the ones that not only are they not performing well, they have very subpar upside potential in an expensive market. If you think about it, if these are the ones that everybody loves to buy, they’re buying them despite a rich market. So not only are they not performing well, They’re trading at multiples that are ridiculous right now because they’re so popular. And I think you’re seeing that in Costco, a very popular stock with a very rich multiple, trading at about, what’s its PEG ratio? I’m just going to look. It has a horrible PEG ratio. It’s got to be four or five, something like that. That’s the PE ratio divided by the growth rate. That’s another one to look at. Forward PE is basically 43.5.
SPEAKER 06 :
And where do we got earnings growth?
SPEAKER 05 :
What’s the peg? I missed the peg.
SPEAKER 06 :
Earnings growth is 10.2.
SPEAKER 05 :
So it’s over 4. Yeah. It’s over 4. And that’s just not going to cut it if there’s any kind of pressure on the stock, if their same-store sales drop. You know, they’ve pretty much raised that membership price. It’s pretty steep. It takes you a while to make up the difference there for what you pay for the membership price. Well, we’ll see tonight. They’re going to report tonight. I would expect for them to not be very bullish about the next 12 months over there at Costco. Anyways, well, we ran out of time. But anyways, I felt like that was some good stuff to really reiterate here at this point in time in the market. It’s going to come down to finding those stocks that aren’t, that have that upside potential despite a rich market. Okay, to get a four-week trial, we’ve had a record year for people signing up for the newsletter, for subscribers, etc. Four weeks free at GundersenCapital.com. and to set up an appointment with us. If you’re in a lot of the stocks that we name that are pretty darn soggy, especially now with an expensive market, give us a call for a second opinion. 855-611-BEST. 855-611-BEST. Have a great day, everybody.
SPEAKER 04 :
This show is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Bill Gunderson or clients of Gunderson Capital Management may have long or short positions in stocks mentioned during the show. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Gunderson Capital Management is a fee-based registered investment advisory firm. All accounts are held at Charles Schwab. Schwab is a member of SIPC and FINRA.
