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The episode takes a turn as John is joined by Michael Smith from the NFIB, discussing the recent legislative changes affecting small businesses in Colorado. Learn how these changes impact small business owners and the economy at large, alongside insights into how businesses can cope with increased regulatory burdens. As the conversation unfolds, discover John’s passion for advocating for small businesses and his commitment to supporting their growth in a challenging financial landscape. Whether you’re a parent or small business owner, this episode offers valuable insights and actionable takeaways.
SPEAKER 04 :
This is Rush to Reason.
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You are going to shut your damn yapper and listen for a change because I got you pegged, sweetheart. You want to take the easy way out because you’re scared. And you’re scared because if you try and fail, there’s only you to blame. Let me break this down for you. Life is scary. Get used to it. There are no magical fixes. With your host, John Rush.
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My advice to you is to do what your parents did! Get a job, sir! You haven’t made everybody equal. You’ve made them the same, and there’s a big difference!
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Let me tell you why you’re here. You’re here because you know something. What you know you can’t explain, but you feel it. You’ve felt it your entire life, that there’s something wrong with the world. You don’t know what it is, but it’s there. It is this feeling that has brought you to me.
SPEAKER 05 :
Are you crazy? Am I? Or am I so sane that you just blew your mind?
SPEAKER 04 :
It’s Rush to Reason with your host, John Rush. Presented by Cub Creek Heating and Air Conditioning.
SPEAKER 18 :
All right, Hour 3, Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. So dovetailing back into what we finished last hour with and several of you texting in, emailing even, talking about how this particular young man was also, and yes, I call him a young man even though he’s in his early 20s, addicted to video games and so on, and I’ve had that debate with people in the past, and I am one that… Let’s just say this. I limited how much my kids could actually, my boys especially, could play video games and so on, especially certain types of games. In fact, in my home, granted, video games have come a long way from when my kids were young, but they were only allowed to play certain games for a certain amount of time. There were certain games that were not allowed in my home, period. And I was very watchful of that. I’d read a book years ago, decades ago. about the effects of video games on especially young men. And I know there’s all sorts of people out there that will poo-poo this, that they don’t have any effect and it’s not a big deal and you can control it and so on and so forth. And I will tell you that while that may be your thought and it may be the case for you and your kid, I’ll tell you that it’s not that way for everyone. It’s not that way for everyone. Some kids really do get affected by the game and the immersion of and literally being in it and so on and so forth. And at the end of the day, yes, it can be a very major thing for certain individuals. Is it that way for everyone? No. I mean, you can’t make a blanket statement across the board on everything. But I think by and large, it’s, for example, is every person that drinks alcohol going to be an alcoholic? No. No. Are certain people more prone to being an alcoholic and or have addicted behaviors versus someone else? Yes. Very true what I just said. It’s been proven over and over again. Certain personalities, certain types of, I think, even DNA will have different outcomes along those lines. Some people can have such addictive behaviors that it’s why they struggle when they gamble or when they drink or the sexual end of things and so on. They’re just addictive type individuals, and it’s just that way for them. And I think, by the way, this is going back to, and I had several people talking about, this is as much the parent’s fault as it is his. I won’t disagree with that. I agree with you 100%. I can tell you that this young man wouldn’t have grown up in my home. My dad wouldn’t have allowed it. It just wouldn’t have happened. So some of you would say, well, you can’t guarantee that. Yeah, my dad could have. He would have. That behavior would not have happened under his watch, period. I know that for a fact. That’s just the way my dad raised us as boys. So where I’m going with this is, parents, you’ve got to pay attention to what your kids are doing. You have to watch every single thing they do. I had a question the other day from a listener. I didn’t mention this on air. I just remembered it. Where a listener said, when you were raising your kids, teenagers and so on, because we didn’t have, when my first one started driving, we didn’t have anything more than flip phones. You didn’t have these GPS trackers. You didn’t know where they were at all times. You had to rely on them checking in. It wasn’t as bad as when I was a kid where you had to use a pay phone to call, but it wasn’t like it is today where you can put a tracker inside your kid’s car and know where they’re at at all times. Some cars come with them built in. Chevrolet has a whole teen driving application for a car if you buy your kid a GM car, and they’ve had that for a decade. So even a used car has that ability. When my kids were growing up, We didn’t have that ability. Even when Richard was a senior in high school, it was just getting to the point where you had some of those things available. They weren’t as prevalent as it is today. So somebody asked me, did I know where my kids were when I was raising them when they were teenagers? Yep, I sure did. And some of you would say, well, how did you know? I used to always tell my kids, listen, I have so many different eyes and ears and people that I know and so on that you’ll never get by doing anything you don’t tell me about because I’m going to know. And I did. Even when my kids would try to put something over on me, I knew. And some of you would say, well, how did you know, John? Because I paid attention. I watched every single thing my kids did, like a hawk. There was no getting past me. I was very savvy, and I was a kid once myself. I understood what kids did. And I watched so closely. And, yes, my kids all had curfew. And if they broke curfew, there was consequences for and, and, and. I ran a tight ship. Let’s just say it that way. And my kids didn’t get by with anything. Ask any of them. They’ll tell you. Now, we still had a lot of fun. I enjoyed raising my kids. I still love my kids. They love me. We have great relationships. But I tell you what, there was no monkey business. There was no messing around. It wasn’t allowed. Now, does that mean we had a perfect household? Absolutely not. Did we ever share our problems? Absolutely. But did I ever go bail a kid out? Did I ever have to go put a kid through rehab? No, I didn’t. Do all my kids work today and have solid jobs? Yes, they do. Does that mean I was the best parent ever? Absolutely not. I made my fair share of mistakes. But I can tell you one thing. None of my kids would have done what this kid did today. That I can guarantee you because it didn’t happen. because I paid attention to what my kids were doing at all times. And I put the fear of God in them, to be honest with you. They knew that if they did something they weren’t supposed to, you know, I was going to be there. Not only was the Lord going to be there, but I was going to be there in his place. And I did with my kids exactly what my dad did. With my dad, I used to always tell even my friends this. I knew where the line in the sand was drawn, and I knew what not to cross. Because all hell would break loose if I did. And I knew that. And I knew my dad meant business. There was no monkeying around. That’s exactly how it was going to be. You didn’t push him. And guess what? My kids didn’t push me either. So my question is… Is it is it because of all of this nonsense, gentle parenting that we have this going on today? This this whole, you know, I’m just going to let my kid be who he wants to be and I’m going to support him or her in whatever way they want to be supported. By the way, that’s absolute, utter gobbledygook nonsense. If you’re a parent that believes in that, shame on you. You can text me if you want to and we’ll have a nice little conversation because shame on you. That’s not how it works. No, we are not here to support what our kids do and want to do because, you know what, they may want to jump off the cliff. Are you going to support that? No, we are here as parents to guide, to protect, to make sure they make right choices. Yes, you’ve got to give them freedom as they get older and they have to make mistakes and you let them have a little more rope. That I understand and that’s what I did. But there’s also times where we as parents have to come along and say, yeah, no, bad idea. Don’t do that. You’re not going to be allowed to do that. No, you can’t hang out with that group of friends. No, you’re not going to play unlimited video games. Yes, you are going to go get a job. I don’t care that all of your friends have the summer off. You’re going to work. As you can tell, folks, those are conversations I had with my kids. There was no monkey motion. You couldn’t sit home all summer long and play video games in my house. That wasn’t allowed. We had a family business, number one, and everybody had to participate, but you had to work. Those were my rules. Still are. I don’t know how and why parents today do the things they do with their kids. It’s absolute, utter nonsense. You’re letting the kid rule the roost instead of you doing it. Shame on you, by the way, Mr. and Mrs. Parent. And I know I’m not really speaking to my listeners. I get that. But there’s some out there that are listening. Trust me. And I hope this sinks in. Otherwise, you may end up with a kid like this. And I wouldn’t want that if I was anybody out there listening. I wouldn’t want a kid like this. That’s a reflection on you, by the way. That’s a reflection on this mother that’s still alive. She now has to live with this the rest of her life. I don’t want to be her, by the way. But she is accountable. She is the one that raised him. As Marty said earlier, she nursed him, she birthed him, she nursed him, she raised him, and then allowed him at 17 to become Robin. Shame on you, by the way. I don’t know what your name is, but shame on you. You should have never let that happen. You raised a monster. You raised a monster. All right. Kevin Flesch, speaking of legal things and all of that, Kevin is our legal eagle. He’s a guy where if you have any problems at all, he’s the guy to call. He doesn’t do family law. I should probably say that more often than I do. Kevin does everything but family law. So, no, no divorce. No child custody things, none of that. He’ll do every single thing outside of that. Never afraid to go to court. He’ll represent you on the civil side, the criminal side. It doesn’t matter, but he does not do family law. So call Kevin today with any need you’ve got, 303-806-8886.
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Here’s why you need personal injury attorney Kevin Flesch on your side. He understands the way the jury thinks. In the context of a personal injury case, you’ve been hurt by someone else’s negligence. The idea is that you’re going to try to recover so that you can get back to where you were just prior to that incident occurring. What that really means from a jurist’s perspective is that you’re going to be asking them to award you money. So when we talk about fairness, we’re talking about six people that you don’t know. Those six people view the evidence and make a unanimous decision that will decide what the fair value is. When you’re the one who’s hurt, you have a good idea of what you think it’s worth. The question is, can you persuade those other individuals whom you don’t know and were witnesses to believe that’s what the case is worth? Kevin Flesch understands the way the jury thinks. Call now for a free consultation, 303-806-8886.
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The big beautiful bill ends all tax credits for solar and backup power on December 31st of this year. Until then, you can still get 56% back on solar and 66% on backup power. If you’re with Xcel Energy, your backup power is nearly 100% reimbursed. Colorado has all this sunshine, and the government is still paying for most of the cost. Your system must be installed and running before December 31st to qualify for the tax credits and rebates. Call Allen Davis today at 303-378-7537. That’s 303-378-7537. This is Rush to Reason on KLZ 560.
SPEAKER 18 :
And we are back. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. Michael Smith joining us now from the National Federation of Independent Businesses, NFIB for short. Michael, welcome. How are you? Doing great. Thanks for having me. I appreciate it. And I’ll say this openly. I apologize. I had a typo in my going back and forth with your booking agent this morning, and I had a total brain fart. My bad. I had told Michael earlier that it was going to be 320 instead of 520, and it was totally my mistake. So I appreciate you working with us, Michael.
SPEAKER 03 :
Absolutely.
SPEAKER 18 :
Shows I’m not perfect. I make a lot of mistakes. Most people don’t see that, but I do. All right. Talk to us about what’s going on here in Colorado after this last budget redo.
SPEAKER 03 :
Sure. Yeah. Small businesses in Colorado have long received a modest allowance for collecting and remitting taxes for the state.
SPEAKER 17 :
Sales tax, right?
SPEAKER 03 :
Yeah. Right, sales tax. And unfortunately, in the special session, the legislature passed a bill to eliminate that allowance that small businesses receive. And basically… Basically, the state is making small business owners unpaid tax collectors.
SPEAKER 18 :
Yep, that’s exactly what they’re doing.
SPEAKER 03 :
I think that’s wrong.
SPEAKER 18 :
I agree with you 100%. And for those of you listening, and I read a lot about this, Michael, because I’m a small business owner myself and understand fully what you’re talking about here. I was watching this very closely. Basically, their excuse, and to me this is an excuse, Michael, is, well, you know, so much stuff is done now electronically, and it’s so much easier than it used to be that, you know, the reality is, you know, they’re not going to lose out by us not giving them this fee anymore. That was the excuse, am I right?
SPEAKER 03 :
Exactly. And I would counter that the office of the auditor had a report that basically said that small businesses receive one-fourth of the cost to them to collect and remit taxes.
SPEAKER 18 :
Really quick, Michael, it’s almost like, sorry to interrupt, it’s almost like these lawmakers feel like as business owners and or the bookkeeper and or whoever’s handling this in the business that they just work for free.
SPEAKER 03 :
Exactly. And, you know, small business owners, they wear many hats, as you know, being an unpaid tax collector just shouldn’t be one of them. I mean, this is a cash grab. into the pockets of small business to fund more government spending. Yes, right. And we all think that should happen on the backs of small business.
SPEAKER 18 :
Well said. I mean, basically, they’re putting on the backs of small businesses their mistakes in not handling the budget properly in the first place. They’re overspending, Michael, is what I really should say. Their overspending now comes back onto small business.
SPEAKER 03 :
Absolutely. Yep. And, yeah, they shouldn’t be doing that on the backs of the small businesses. more than ever every dollar counts for small business i mean higher operating costs every year and legislation is getting passed to impose more regulations increase compliance costs and more fees after more fees and this is one more hit on small businesses that makes it more difficult
SPEAKER 18 :
Yeah, and most people don’t know this, but if they’re a small business owner that has a, you know, let’s say they own their own business, well, or I shouldn’t say own business, they own their own building, even if they rent, by the way, it still comes back on them, but let’s just say they own their own building, Michael, their property taxes, and again, they’re paying a portion of even if they’re renting, the reality is the commercial side is so much higher. I was trying to explain this to somebody today. Most people think that, oh, my property taxes went up on my house. Yeah, they did. And that person that owns the business down the street from you, it went up even higher than yours did. So just remember that every time you go use a small business because their taxes, Michael, across the board continue to go up. Even if they’re not in a high income tax bracket, they’re still paying taxes in the way I’m talking.
SPEAKER 03 :
Absolutely. Yeah, it just gets harder and harder with the taxes and the fees and the regulations. So definitely agree with that.
SPEAKER 18 :
Anything, I mean, this is really more for awareness. I mean, this is pretty much, unless I miss something, this is pretty much a signed, sealed, and delivered deal. I mean, at the end of the day, these folks are now going to lose out on the little bit they were being paid to actually collect tax, you know, to collect sales tax in this case. This is a done deal. It’s ending, right, Michael?
SPEAKER 03 :
It’s ending, and the bill will be effective January 2026.
SPEAKER 18 :
So in other words, those of you that have been used to getting a very small fee back in doing the tax collecting for the state of Colorado, that’s going away. So I guess, Michael, at the end of the day, meaning, this is the way I’ve always looked at it, talk about it as a host, I’ve talked about it as an owner, meaning that that little bit they get back, it’s not a lot, meaning that they now have higher costs because they’re not going to get a little bit of that back. Ultimately, their customers pay, right?
SPEAKER 03 :
That very well could be the case, absolutely. Yeah, a lot of times they have no choice but to pass it on to the consumers. I know they don’t want to, and in a lot of cases they’ll do everything they can not to do that. But as you know, that’s a fact of of doing business sometimes, and if it’s not avoidable, that will be the case.
SPEAKER 18 :
Yeah, and again, because I say it all the time, Michael, businesses can absorb some things, although to your point earlier, and you’re spot on, the margins are so tight for a lot of businesses, they can’t absorb much, if any, because other costs, insurance and property taxes and so on, because of a lot of the mismanagement of what’s going on in Colorado, continue to go up. They can’t eat these sorts of things. In this case, these things will get passed on to the consumer. Right. At the end of the day, to your point, they don’t have any choice. Talk to us about the NFIB. There’s a lot of business owners out there listening that want help, and they want a community that they can be a part of and join and get some support from. How do they do that, Michael?
SPEAKER 03 :
Sure. Yeah, they can reach right out to NFIB. Our website is nfib.org. Yeah, we’re the largest small business association in Colorado with nearly 6,000
SPEAKER 18 :
members and also the largest in the country and um would love to continue to build the membership uh and uh keep on fighting for small businesses here in colorado well you keep doing it anytime you guys want to come on air like today you let me know i’m in your camp as you can tell and i’m all for it whatever we can do to help small businesses they are the backbone of the economy and i’ll do whatever i can to help you michael
SPEAKER 03 :
I appreciate it. Thanks for having me on.
SPEAKER 18 :
and I appreciate them greatly. They are a great organization. If you’re a small business and you want to know more about that, they do all sorts of things legislatively speaking to help you in your business, and I can’t encourage you enough to reach out to them if you want to be a part of it and join them online. I would highly suggest it. It’s NFIB, National Federation of Independent Businesses, but it’s NFIB.com is the website. You don’t have to spell it out. You can spell it out, but just use NFIB.com, and it’ll actually take you to their website where you can actually learn. And by the way, there’s stuff that goes on. They put out things across the country. on things like this where things are happening state by state. They do a really good job of collectively putting those things together and letting everybody know what’s happening on a state by state, nationwide, and even a federal basis. So I appreciate the work. that they do. Roof Savers of Colorado coming up next. It’s raining here at the station as we speak. It might be raining where you are, and some of you might be thinking, man, I might have a little leak I need to get taken care of, or whatever the case may be. Give Roof Savers of Colorado a call today, 303-710-6916.
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SPEAKER 18 :
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SPEAKER 11 :
The best export we have is Common Sense. You’re listening to Rush to Reason.
SPEAKER 18 :
All right, we are back. Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560. Scott Garlis joining us now. Scott, how are you? Hey, John, I’m well. How are you, man? I’m doing great. Excited to talk to you after the meeting at Jackson Hole on Friday with the Fed, and it was interesting to read some of and see some of the comments that Jerome, not only he, but others made. So give us your thoughts before we get rolling here.
SPEAKER 08 :
Yeah, I mean, so… This is a lot of the stuff we talked about last week, and that Besant sort of gave Powell and Al saying, hey, you guys have been making decisions based on bad data. You need to catch up now. And more or less, Powell came out and said, hey, we’re worried about what’s going on with the labor market, and we’re worried about rates staying too high for too long and hurting jobs, and if we don’t do something, it could create more damage. So we’re probably going to need to get in gear and start cutting rates. Now, he didn’t say it exactly like that.
SPEAKER 18 :
Right.
SPEAKER 08 :
But that was the intimation of what he said.
SPEAKER 18 :
Yeah, it’s interesting that he sort of, in a way, you know, kind of backtracked. And, you know, there’s now some folks even saying that, yeah, you know, maybe these tariffs were just a kind of a, you know, one-time hit. And a lot of them now are starting to say the same things you and I have said, that, you know, these guys had some room as far as the exporter goes. Their shipping costs have come down because of the fuel prices. reduction in cost of fuel, I should say, among other things. On top of that, the importer can even pick up a little bit at times. At the end of the day, the consumer might see a, I don’t know, 2%, 5% increase when it’s all said and done. Not much, and in some cases might not have any increase depending upon the good. And it’s not a continual thing. It’s a one-time thing. And I think we finally have the Fed admitting that.
SPEAKER 08 :
Yeah, you know, and what was interesting to me, in addition to what you’re talking about, is there were some comments that have come out this week. So after Jackson Hole, you’ve had other Fed members, policymakers speak. And one that really stood out to me is John Williams. He’s a president of the New York Fed who is a voting member. Actually, the New York Fed president is a vice chair there. of the FOMC. And Williams had been kind of hawkish, meaning really not inclined to lower rates because of what’s going on, the unemployment rate, strong labor market, all these things. And he came out afterward and said, you know what, the rate of neutral, which is where interest rates and inflation sort of zero out, he said, you know what, it might actually be a lot lower than we thought it was. It’s not picking up to where we thought it was going to go, and it’s It’s staying sort of where it was pre-pandemic, which, in other words, what he’s saying is there’s a lot of room to cut interest rates.
SPEAKER 18 :
Yep. Yep. By the way, which is the same thing you and I have now been saying for quite some time, once again, as we predicted way back when they should have been raising rates and they weren’t, they got behind. In this particular case, they should have been lowering them, and they’re now behind. So then this begs the question, as we get into next month, is it a quarter, a half, three quarter? I doubt he’ll do a full point, but what are your thoughts?
SPEAKER 08 :
Yeah, so that’s really interesting, too. I believe it’s the September 17th, 18th. Sorry, my internet crashed.
SPEAKER 18 :
You’re fine. No, I think you’re right. So we’re about three weeks away, roughly.
SPEAKER 08 :
Yeah, and so there’s a really interesting report that comes out on September 9th before that. We’re going to get another labor report next week. I think we’ll get another CPI report. But on September 9th, the BLS puts out a preliminary estimate of how much the job estimates from April 24 to March 25, every year they do a benchmark, what the revision is going to be for that number. As we know, the last couple of years, it’s been like a million job revision lower in the last two years. So April 24 to March 25 is pretty much everything that’s still – filtered out from the last administration in my estimation. And it would certainly be this person that was running the BLS until Trump said, hey, you keep going back and adjusting all these numbers. So, you know, Goldman put out a report recently saying they think that number could be revised lower by 550,000 to 950,000 jobs. Wow. Wow. That’s a massive number. That’s a ton. Yes. So if you pile that on, you know, I think the QCEW, which is the, geez, I’m trying to remember. It’s basically the Census Employment and Wages data. You know, they had it higher on their final revision. But, you know, the estimate that’s come out the last two years, I know it’s been at least 830,000, 840,000 jobs around there that The September, it’s like late August, early September number that the BLS has done. And so we’ve been averaging over the last decade like 3 million jobs a year. And let’s say we come at the low end, you’re looking at a million and a half-ish. High end, you’re looking at like a million, 7 million, maybe 2 million. I mean, that’s almost a year’s, over the last three years, you’ve seen a year’s worth of job losses in the revisions.
SPEAKER 18 :
Meaning that if the Fed had had real numbers prior to now, and I’m not saying that they would have done anything different because I still think Jerome Powell is being very political in all of this, but you’ve got to wonder, would they have made a different decision based upon that?
SPEAKER 08 :
Yes, I definitely think so. And I think it would have been a game changer. You might have had rates go as high. but they might have come down a lot faster than they did. And then we probably wouldn’t have seen this long pause again before we’re even talking about really bringing down rates. So why I say all this, the question you asked me before, I think if we get a number in the beginning of September, I believe again it’s September 9th, if we get a number that’s, especially if it comes in at around $950,000, again, it’s an estimate from Goldman, it could be lower, it could be higher. But even if we get something in the middle of the range, let’s say like 750, I think the Fed’s got to go 50 basis points. I think if we even revise 550,000 jobs lower, I think the Fed’s got to go. 50 basis points.
SPEAKER 18 :
At least. I agree with you. First of all, if he does just a quarter point, that’s like doing nothing. I mean, at the end of the day, he might as well have not even changed it, and it’s not going to help his future, his career, the relationship with the White House and so on, which I know there’s some out there saying there shouldn’t be one, but there always is. The reality is that’s there. You can say all day long that it shouldn’t exist, but, Scott, it’s always going to. So at the end of the day, quit saying that because it’s always going to be there. So I don’t think he helps himself with a quarter point. I think he’s pacifying at a half, and if he really wants to be known for doing something, he’s got to do at least three-quarter to a point.
SPEAKER 08 :
Yeah, and I think if you have a massive jobs revision lower, I think not only do you have to do 50 basis points in September, but you’ve got to go 100 basis points by the end of this year.
SPEAKER 18 :
Well, I think you’ve got to do that by the end of October. My feeling on that, Scott, is you need to do probably by the end of the year a full point and a half. I don’t think even a full point by the end of the year is going to be enough.
SPEAKER 08 :
It’s very possible, but I would say at least 50 in September, 25 October, 25 December at a minimum. I think, you know, because what if we get another report coming up in September that we get the last two months, June or July and August, revised even lower?
SPEAKER 18 :
I’m one that says if you really want to get things jump-started and you really want to build confidence heading into the winter months, you come out in September with a full point lower. And if you want to then do a quarter and a quarter where it’s a point and a half by the end of the year, then so be it. But if you really want to jump-start things, you come down a full point.
SPEAKER 08 :
The beginning of the year is when people really are looking to hire people. And so you would set it up very nicely, be throwing fuel on the fire for the first quarter of next year. for companies to come out and hit the ground running and hiring more people.
SPEAKER 18 :
Yep. You would. And I don’t know that they’ll do that because, frankly, they don’t look at things the same way that you and I do. They don’t live in the same space that you and I do. They don’t rub elbows with the same folks that you and I do. They’re not around the same businesses that you and I are around. The reality is they just don’t have an idea of how those things work, which – There’s a whole other conversation. Don’t want to get off track here, Scott. But it makes you wonder at times. And I get it. You know, these things are appointed. There’s usually some political involvement. People rub elbows with different people. It’s that old saying, it’s not what you know, it’s who you know. But, you know, it sure be nice on some of these big boards like the Federal Reserve. if you had somebody, even like a Donald Trump, by the way, that really does understand what happens on Main Street, it would really be nice to have somebody like him sitting there, able to give influence upon some of these decisions, because I’ll be straight up honest, Scott, these guys that are doing it now, they don’t have the foggiest idea what you and I do daily.
SPEAKER 08 :
Yes, you definitely want people that are more pragmatic and less… You want a bit of academia knowledge?
SPEAKER 18 :
I want a guy that writes payroll checks. That’s what I want, Scott.
SPEAKER 08 :
Yeah, she won’t practice.
SPEAKER 18 :
Yeah, because no offense, all of those PhDs and MBAs and all that other garbage that these guys have and yet have never written a payroll check, no offense, that doesn’t mean anything to me. I don’t care what education they’ve got and what academia is saying. At the end of the day, they could have every single accolade economically speaking at the end of the day, but if they’ve never written a payroll check and paid the insurance company and paid workman’s comp and matched FICA taxes and, and, and, and, and, I have no use for him, Scott.
SPEAKER 08 :
No, I think that’s fair. there’s probably a balance in there of let’s have some academia, let’s have some business. And that’s my point.
SPEAKER 18 :
And the problem, though, Scott, is, as you know, we don’t have any of that. We have zero balance there right now, none. It doesn’t exist. I’ve looked up every single one of these guys, Jerome Powell included. At most, they’ve been involved in some high-level finance-type companies and so on, but none of them have ever written a payroll check.
SPEAKER 08 :
No, because Powell was a private equity banker at Warburg Pincus, I believe. Correct. Yeah, and so he looked at businesses to purchase, but nothing in terms of really running an entire one. I’m with you there.
SPEAKER 18 :
It’ll be interesting to see what happens. Again, I’m not on that whole level in that conversation. I’m not keeping my hopes up because it’s been entrenched and been such a way for so long that I don’t ever see that changing. Somehow, though, Scott, and this is probably the ultimate question, is how do we get more influence from Main Street upon these guys? That’s more of a question for you because I don’t have an answer for that.
SPEAKER 08 :
Well, you know, there’s something else really interesting that’s going on is – I believe it’s early next year. So there are 12 regional districts within the Federal Reserve, the regional Fed presidents like St. Louis, Kansas City, Denver. Oh, Kansas City covers Denver. I’m sorry. San Francisco, Richmond.
SPEAKER 17 :
Right.
SPEAKER 08 :
Excuse me. But so every five years, these guys get reaffirmed in their job.
SPEAKER 17 :
Right.
SPEAKER 08 :
The Trump administration is apparently looking into changing that process right now. and potentially holding more sway over who gets appointed to the regional president jobs. That could be really interesting, because there could be a case right there for having business owners come in.
SPEAKER 18 :
I mean, even Scott, and let me throw this at you, and not, again, you and I are spitballing because we have no influence on this in any way, shape, or form. Even if these guys had, on the Fed, for example, even if they had a subcommittee of business owners that they on a even quarterly basis i’d like it monthly but even on a quarterly basis they brought some high level small business owners not guys that are in the whole vc world and all that i’m not talking i’m talking guys that own you know maybe they’re maybe they bring you know some guys in that own a hundred employee company or a thousand employee company or a 20 employee company they get a mixture of individuals that are there that have some input not not that they’re going to make any policy decisions but they can actually have this little forum if you would where they can bounce ideas off of these guys you know much like in industry so in the automotive industry for example a lot of manufacturers will put together advisory councils where they’ll bring in some of their top clients across the country they make up an advisory council i’ve served on these things many times they get a lot of ideas from what’s going on out in the real world they can come back to the manufacturer it’s how they help develop better products and so on why can’t the fed do something They can.
SPEAKER 08 :
They definitely can. I think to your point, what they do a lot of are surveys, and they try to do community outreach, but that’s very different than having say, a guy that drives a car in the middle of the room saying, hey, look, your gear shift’s cool, but it’s put in the wrong spot. That’s right. So your car doesn’t work.
SPEAKER 18 :
That’s right. And in our case, Scott, in the industries I was always involved in, these weren’t like an hour-long meeting. They typically would bring you in. You’d have several different meetings, some breakout sessions, and so on. You might even talk to the guy that’s developing – You know, not only the part, but the software behind it, the cataloging, the pricing. I mean, all these different things would go on, and you’d spend two days going through these things. And that’s what the Fed needs to do, because they’re clueless as far as what goes on on Main Street.
SPEAKER 08 :
Well, I can’t imagine what they talk about for two days at their policy meetings.
SPEAKER 18 :
A lot of B.S.
SPEAKER 08 :
How they’re not prepared going into these things. I’m sorry, Scott.
SPEAKER 18 :
A lot of BS. I don’t know how else to say it. These guys are clueless.
SPEAKER 08 :
Yes, they completely are. I actually, I think that would be an excellent idea. And not just, but you can’t have people that No, no, no.
SPEAKER 18 :
And I want guys and gals from different sectors. I want somebody that’s in the manufacturing end of it. I want somebody that’s running on the retail end of it. I want somebody that’s running a high-level service business. In other words, I want a mixture across the board, economically speaking, of these business owners that can bring reports back to the Fed on what needs to happen.
SPEAKER 08 :
And can say, this is what your interest rates are doing to our business. That’s right. We’re firing or we’re not hiring people. That’s right.
SPEAKER 18 :
We’re stagnant. We’re hiring. We’re firing. You know, that guy that I explained it this way to somebody earlier today, you know, what’s happening in business right now is you’ve got a guy I always call, you know, businesses have one or several. Folks that are on the bubble. It’s a lot like what happens in the NFL right now. Guys are on the bubble. Are they going to make the team or are they not going to make the team? So every business, Scott, has folks that are on the bubble. And the reality is right now what’s happening because of interest rates and so on, you know what? If you really don’t need the guy on the bubble, that person goes. You’re not keeping them. You’re not making excuses as to why you should have them. We get a full one-point rate drop. The guy on the bubble has a more secure job now.
SPEAKER 08 :
Totally. And it’s back to the whole You know, it’s sort of like when an employee doesn’t just cost you the salary and everything. It’s X, Y, Z, extra. Correct. I think the typical comparison is to bring on somebody, they really want to cost you about 140%.
SPEAKER 18 :
Yeah, when I coach my clients, I tell them to use a multiplier of 1.3, which is 33%. Sorry, 1.4, which is around that same number. Sorry, I said that wrong. But to your point, yes, it’s much higher. In other words, if you pay a guy $100, you’re not paying him $100. He’s costing you about $130.
SPEAKER 08 :
That’s right. That’s right. And so people don’t always think about that. And, yeah, I mean, just practical knowledge like that is definitely the Fed needs to hear a lot more of that. And their policies need to be influenced by more of that. Because, again, I mean, the numbers I look at – To have a 200 basis point rate cushion right now to neutral, it doesn’t make any sense.
SPEAKER 18 :
No, I agree.
SPEAKER 08 :
That’s painful.
SPEAKER 18 :
By the way, the other sector I forgot that needs to be included in this is somebody in housing or a couple of people from housing, whether it’s the construction end or the whole builder end, they need to sit on that same panel.
SPEAKER 08 :
You know, interestingly enough, I believe it might have been the CEO of Toll Brothers recently came out on their earnings call and said they’re actually seeing their costs go down.
SPEAKER 18 :
Interesting. Meaning tariffs and all these things that everybody’s been worried about aren’t taking effect with them at all.
SPEAKER 08 :
Bingo. And to your point, if that guy’s in the room with them and saying, hey, guys, that’s great. In theory, you’re worried about this tariff stuff. We’re not seeing it. I have a good friend of mine is in the excavation business. He built it from a single front end loader to he’s got 75 pieces of equipment.
SPEAKER 17 :
Nice.
SPEAKER 08 :
And he does work for all these companies. big builders and he was telling me the same thing he’s like he said his material costs are coming down so he goes in clears out the land puts in the roads pipes he does all the infrastructure for him is what he does he’s that guy yep and paves it foundation ready yep ready to roll yep yeah and he just he said these tariffs are not killing his business
SPEAKER 18 :
I mean, again, you and I have talked about this. I’ll continue to talk about it. I think it’s something that a lot of folks just don’t understand. There’s a lot of, of course, Trump haters out there that don’t want to give him any credit for having good ideas on this. One last thing I was going to mention that also came out yesterday. You and I haven’t talked about this yet, but CBO, who’s not a friend, by the way, typically to the conservative Republican sides of things, they even came out yesterday and said, hey, guys, guess what? What we’re seeing and what we’re seeing as a trend, and if this continues all the way to 2035, as far as the way tariffs are going, we could see a deficit, you know, we could see a debt reduction, not deficit, but a debt reduction of $4 trillion.
SPEAKER 08 :
Which would be massive.
SPEAKER 18 :
Huge.
SPEAKER 08 :
Huge. Yeah, I mean, Bessette said yesterday that He thinks the receipts coming in could total $500 billion now.
SPEAKER 18 :
Well, which means the CBO and what the CBO is looking at is, listen, if we get that much revenue that comes in and we don’t have as much debt, meaning we’re not paying as much interest and so on and so forth, all of that equates to about $4 trillion in that 10-year mark if it continues to go the way it’s going. And here’s what I’m going to tell everybody listening. And, Scott, you know this as well. even if there is a regime change in any way, shape, or form, this sort of revenue coming in, they won’t stop it. It’ll just stay.
SPEAKER 08 :
Yes, especially if they see the opportunity to get that down and take credit for it.
SPEAKER 18 :
That’s right. Absolutely. Man, I appreciate it. I guess we’ll see what happens next month, although we’ll talk multiple times before then because, again, that’s a little bit later in the month. One last thing before I let you go. How does the Lisa Cook and Trump battle end up? For those of you that don’t know, Lisa Cook is the one that’s on the Fed board. There’s been some reports in. They haven’t confirmed all of this yet. They’re investigating, but there’s some reports out there that she committed mortgage fraud by listing two homes that she applied for loans on as both being the primary residence. You cannot do that, Scott.
SPEAKER 08 :
You cannot, but I think you have to have a court look at it and say she definitely did that.
SPEAKER 17 :
I agree.
SPEAKER 08 :
I don’t think you can just jump the gun and say, well, we’ve been told you did this. No, I think they’ve got to prove it.
SPEAKER 18 :
Now, here’s the thing. If they do what you say and they prove she, in fact, filled those applications out that way and she knowingly put down two primary residences, she needs to go.
SPEAKER 08 :
Yes, yes, that’s right. But until that time, you sort of have to let this play out.
SPEAKER 17 :
I agree with you on that.
SPEAKER 08 :
You’ll notice, yeah. Because what they’re… And the reason… One of the big things going on here, too, is what you’ve got to be really careful of. You don’t want to set a bad political precedent. Correct. Because if you go down this road, it’s a slippery slope. Harry Reid will tell you, you know… I he said a bunch of times he regretted going to the Senate, deciding 50 50 on votes and having the vice president. So I think they need to be very careful. They need to let the courts decide whether or not she was. She’s guilty of having done that. If she is, then you say bye-bye.
SPEAKER 18 :
Can’t argue that. Can’t argue that. All right, Scott, how do folks get a hold of you before I let you go?
SPEAKER 08 :
Sure. LinkedIn, Substack, or Twitter, C. Scott Garlis, Bent Pine Capital.
SPEAKER 18 :
Awesome. Scott, I love you, man. Appreciate you very much. Thanks for all you do for us.
SPEAKER 08 :
Right back at you, John. All right, man.
SPEAKER 18 :
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SPEAKER 16 :
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SPEAKER 18 :
Back to Rush to Reason. All right, we are back. Our last call of the day. Bill, welcome. How are you?
SPEAKER 07 :
Good. I just wanted to comment on your earlier comments regarding these shootings. I mean, the thing that parents need to do is stop trying to be their kid’s best friend and be their parent.
SPEAKER 17 :
Yep.
SPEAKER 07 :
There’s so many, you see so much of this, and I lay a lot of it, with a divorce. I mean, to the extent possible, folks, go to marriage counseling. You know, stay married. Marriage is not easy. It’s hard to work through. But a lot of times you see a lot of this. There’s this guilt maybe if just the mother’s there and they have to cave in and become their kid’s best friend. And we cannot have that.
SPEAKER 18 :
No, I used to tell my kids, Bill, constantly. In fact, they could probably repeat this to this day. I would always tell them, listen, guys. At the end of the day, I’m not your friend. I love you dearly. I will raise you according to what I know I need to do. At the end of the day, you may not even love me, but you’ll always respect me. And I don’t care at the end of the day whether you do. I’m going to raise you this way anyways.
SPEAKER 07 :
Absolutely. And that’s the biggest thing. And a lot of this has to do with the public schools. that have literally turned the kids against their parents.
SPEAKER 18 :
Yep. And, Bill, the other thing I’ll tell a lot of you listening that maybe you’re raising kids, you’re in the middle of this, and you listen to what I just said a moment ago and think, how in the world could you say that? Well, Bill, at the end of the day, guess what? They do not only respect you, they do love you at the end because as they get older, they realize that, oh, I guess Dad wasn’t so wrong after all.
SPEAKER 07 :
Absolutely. A lot of people will realize that in their 30s. Dad wasn’t so stodgy and stupid.
SPEAKER 18 :
As they start raising their own, by the way, they really start learning that dad wasn’t so dumb after all.
SPEAKER 07 :
Absolutely. You’ve got to pass your life experience on to your children.
SPEAKER 18 :
Yeah, and Bill, really quick, not to belabor this, but there’s been study after study after study that this whole gentle parenting and being your kid’s best friend and all of that, it doesn’t work. In fact, for all of you listening that do that, as your kids get older, In a lot of cases, not all, but in a lot of cases, they will look back and say, Mom, Dad, why didn’t you put boundaries on me? Why didn’t you do this? Why didn’t you make me do that? I would have been a better person today had you done that.
SPEAKER 07 :
Absolutely. And back to your comment there about, you know, what was he trying to be? Tim was trying to be Tina or something. Silly thing like that. You get the kid a psychologist. Correct. You cannot transgender yourself. God made them male and female.
SPEAKER 17 :
That’s exactly right.
SPEAKER 07 :
Okay? Get them a psychiatrist. Let’s deal with this now. Nip it in the bud.
SPEAKER 18 :
Yeah, and I’ll only add one more thing. I’ve got a minute, Bill. On the same token, you know what? Raise your boys to be boys. Raise your girls to be girls. I always use that example of my brother. God rest his soul, he’s passed. But if he were here today, he’d be having the same conversation where there was a time where he wanted a baby doll because my cousin had one, my female cousin had one, and he wanted to be like her. And my dad finally set his foot down and said, my son, none of them are going to own baby dolls, period. Don’t ask me again. It’s an automatic no. Boys don’t play with dolls. That’s exactly what my dad told my brother.
SPEAKER 07 :
There you go. And we need to have a lot more of that in society.
SPEAKER 18 :
And my brother turned out to be a pastor. So, Bill, he didn’t end up in a mental institution. He wasn’t crazy. He ended up being a pastor when it was all said and done. So you know what? He came out just fine.
SPEAKER 07 :
That sounds great. Like they say before, liberalism is a mental illness.
SPEAKER 18 :
It is. You’re the one that taught me that, which I appreciate very much, Bill. Bill, love you. Thank you for calling in. I appreciate you.
SPEAKER 19 :
See you.
SPEAKER 18 :
You bet. Have a great night. And he’s the one that taught me years ago that, yes, being liberal is definitely a mental illness, and we keep seeing it over and over again. Unfortunately, we saw it this morning full-fledged, I’m sorry to say. Guys, have a great night. Be safe out there in the weather that we’re having. This is Rush to Reason, Denver’s Afternoon Rush, KLZ 560.
SPEAKER 1 :
Thank you.
